You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:40pm EST. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS!
Race 1: 4 – 1 – 6
In the opener, #4 Ice Axe (3-5) is the prohibitive favorite and rightfully so. Even the 5yo maiden is 0/15 lifetime, he’s dropping down and is facing a very weak group. If he doesn’t win today, not sure what that says about his ability…graduation day very likely.
Race 2: 4 – 3 – 7
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 3,4,7 / 1,4,5 / 1,4,7 / 1,2 ($27)
Race 2 is VERY COMPETITIVE, as indicated by the morning lines set by Director of Racing Jim Miller. I’ll go with #4 My Crazy Neighbor (5-1) for veteran trainer Berndt, who is 20% this meet, albeit a small sample size. There’s enough early speed to set up “Crazy’s” close, and faced a very tough field last time, including Richiesonaroll. The $25k price tag here seems like a reasonable class level today.
Race 3: 4 – 5 – 1
Let’s hope 4’s are wild today at Hawthorne, as I pick my 3rd 4-horse in a row on top with a bit of a flyer in Cotton Candy Annie (9-2). She has plenty of back-class stepping into the N1X today, and the big factor for me is the cutback. Two turns really has not worked for this gal of Sharp Azteca, who was a sprinter himself. Blinks on, pace to run into, change in distance….why not take a stab at a price?
Race 4: 1 – 4 – 7
The first turf race of the day is unique. It’s 7.5f on the turf with a very short run into the first turn for claimers. I’ll go with a lukewarm selection in #1 Golden Storm (5-2), a 3yo filly facing some older ones. The rail is a big advantage for jockey Giles as he’ll be able to save ground, and her one turf effort resulted in a very good 62 Beyer at Keeneland relative to the field she faces today. I would not take too low a price, as the field is competitive and bulky.
Race 5: 1 – 2 – 4
#1 Double Thunder (4-1) raced well in a tough defeat last time vs. Gita’s Lad who’s back in here again. My angle with “Thunder” today is last time was his first at Hawthorne…perhaps the race over the surface / acclimation to the Cicero oval will help her improve today. He can go to the lead or sit just off the speed depending on the break. Honest 5yo who does his best running up close, has a big shot.
Race 6: 3 – 5 – 8
Late Pick 4 ticket: 3,5 / 1,3,5,6,10,11,12 / 3,5,8 / 3,5 ($42)
To kick off a VERY difficult Pick 4, I have some #3 Breaking News (9-5) in the nickel claimer sprinting 6f. Although I’m not a fan of 8yo’s who don’t win too often, this gelding is in such fine form it’s hard to ignore him. Plus he continues to get Centeno in the irons and shows tactical speed from the inside. If he can work out a good trip, he’s a big win candidate.
Race 7: 6 – 1 – 10
In one of the toughest races to handicap on the card, I’m taking a price in #6 Lea Ro (8-1). This very big field of fillies going two turns on the turf will be a very trip-dependent affair…whomever works out the right one has a big chance. Although the Block filly on the inside might be tough, she hasn’t races since last September, and “Ro” has been facing good company down in Tampa Bay all winter/spring. I’m hoping Felix can work out a trip and he class / recency shows in a tough spot with many contenders. I’m going 7-deep here in my Late P4, so many things can happen.
Race 8: 3 – 5 – 8
Nice N1X allowance race for the penultimate race on the card. I always prefer more lightly-raced horses than experienced ones in these types of contests, so I’ll go with #3 Moonlight Road (7-2), who just broke his maiden. Although it took 6 tries to win, I like the pedigree on this one (Malibu Moon), and Block seems to have him going in the right direction. Not only that, his last work was excellent, so perhaps the “lightbulb” has gone on. Should be able to stalk and pounce off the main speed of Valiant Road, who might be the horse to beat with a 78 Beyer in his last effort.
Race 9: 3 – 5 – 1
The nightcap and closeout leg of the Late P4 is interesting….a grass race for maiden special weights. I like the effort of #3 Anqa (5-2), the ML-favorite, last time at Turfway. It was a relatively fast pace, and the Godolphin homebred stuck around to finish an even 5th. With Distorted Humor on the dam side, turf should work out just fine, and her inside post will allow her to save ground and make her move when asked. Another I would not take a low price on if betting to win, but a must-use in the horizontals for sure.
