You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. All analysis assumes grass races STAY ON THE TURF. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS!
Race 1: 4 – 5 – 3
#4 Quiero Dinero (9-2) was simply too far back last time in a race with a wicked early pace. The rough start didn’t help either. This race seems easier than the last for the level, with enough early speed to enhance his closing kick.
Race 2: 4 – 7 – 6
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6,7 / 2,3,4 / 2,6 / 3,4,6 ($27)
Short-priced favorite #4 Smooth Justice (8-5) could be very tough today in this spot. He lucks into this non-winners of two in 2024 condition after blowing out tougher last time on the lead. Anything close to that effort wins again for sure.
Race 3: 4 – 3 – 2
Nice, competitive turf race…..I’ll chalk out again with a Will Take Charge gelding who’s 11-for-30 lifetime, #4 Cadet Corps (9-5). Although he probably shouldn’t be that low, he’s awfully consistent and gets back on the turf after being scratched off 3 of his last 4. Loveberry is a jock upgrade and he just needs to work out a trip from mid-pack.
Race 4: 2 – 6 – 1
I like horses who speed and fade into a hot pace. That’s exactly what happened last time to #2 Racarino (9-2). That was his first start in 9 months, and now he should be much tighter. Trainer Gonzalez is only 1-for-24 this meet, but Mojica takes over and Racarino has plenty of back-numbers that fit.
Race 5: 4 – 3 – 6
If #4 Swift as I Am (9-5) lives up to his name and runs anywhere near his recent turf runs, he’ll be awfully tough here. Even though he’s winless on turf, he’s faced toughies in stake company and just missed vs. Mister Mmmmm at the Fairgrounds in March. Quite the story for a Cal-bred who was bought for only $6,500 at a sale in Washington state….good horses can come from anywhere!
Race 6: 4 – 7 – 6
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6,7 / 2,3,7 / 1,4,7 / 2,3,6,9 ($54)
The name might remind you of your youth, but #4 Two Cookie Rule (5-2) is a very honest sort, if not spectacular. Last time, he got pushed out and lost ground at 70c to the dollar. Jockey Reyes stays on and I’m hoping he bounces back to his run two back when he received a 66 Beyer, which would trounce this field.
Race 7: 7 – 2 – 3
Maidens sprinting on the turf, a tough call for sure. The way #7 Deal’em and Weep (9-2) ran the first time, you’d think she’d be tough in here. I’m not sure about the big cutback in distance as that angle does not always work on the turf, but after a few good works including a bullet, I trust trainer Block in this situation. Just hoping she’s not too far back early.
Race 8: 1 – 4 – 7
#1 Unified Weekend (5-2) is a horse I’ve mentioned on these picks before this meet. The 4yo colt is very solid usually at the $5k level and now drops to the $4k conditioned level. The voided claim two back and non-effort last time is a concern, but there’s not much to beat today and a ground-saving trip is coming.
Race 9: 2 – 3 – 9
In a wide-open maiden $20k claimer where I don’t trust horses that have already run on turf, I’m going with fresh faces. #2 Ricky’s Best (10-1) has done little running against much tougher, but those races were on dirt. He’s bred for turf top and bottom…the dam won $66k on turf and the sire was a Grade 1 turf router who won over $1.5mil on the sod. Perhaps the grass under his hooves will wake him up at price…plus the drop down in class.
