You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. Analysis based on grass races SWITCHING TO THE DIRT. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS!
Race 1: 3 – 5 – 2
Even though she’s a Great Britain-bred, #3 Mused (5-2) showed her dirt prowess 2-back with a very good effort vs. better. Last time, she didn’t break well and the rest was history. She’s dropping down today and will stalk and pounce to a victory if she can replicate her best, or even close to her best.
Race 2: 6 – 3 – 4
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 3,6 / 3 / 4,5 / 2,3,5 ($6)
#6 Unified Weekend (5-2) is in a good spot here. The 4yo colt should sit off the inside speed, and for new trainer and jockey Cohen, a positive trip seems likely. He’s consistent and honest, if not spectacular.
Race 3: 3 – 4 – 1
I’m expecting all the races to be rained off the turf, and #3 All Choked Up (6-5) might be better on turf. But, he’s also proved herself on dirt, and many in here have not. I don’t know how the field will shape up if it’s on dirt, but as of now there is enough early speed to set up his closing kick. And, the field will be smaller in theory, so less horses to pass in the stretch. Strong single in all horizontals until I see scratches.
Race 4: 5 – 4 – 2
Babies going 5f fight it out here, and Rivelli figures to be a factor as usual with the Ill-Bred., #4 Little Poison. While I’m sure she’s fast early, there’s not much pedigree and I’m not sure how talented she really is, plus will take a lot of money. Meanwhile, #5 Bella Vittoria (7-2) is a speed daughter by Speightstown who’s also been working well. Her dam side says distance is better, but I have a feeling she’ll fire today. The trainer is 5/7 ITM in the last 5 years with 2yo’s sprinting first-time out.
Race 5: 3 – 5 – 2
#3 Willa Mankiller (5-2) needs to run better than she has in her last two starts. But she sure does have speed…only problem is there’s speed to her inside also. If she can get back to her good races last year, she’ll be tough. 2nd off the layoff is a good angle for her, and she can stalk if necessary. I would not take too low a price on her however.
Race 6: 6 – 2 – 3
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,4,6,7 / 7,9,10 / 2,3,5,7,8 / 12 ($37.50)
Not proud of this pick at all, but #6 Mister Charming (3-1) seems to be rounding back into form. An 8-yr. old who is 3-for-65, “Charming” should sit right off the speed to his inside. The problem is the gelding is camera-shy, so I don’t know if today will be his day, but I feel as if he has as good a chance as any today. By every measure, he fits in this spot.
Race 7: 10 – 9 – 7
There are two “also-eligibles” signed on in the field, and either one can win. I’ll go with the horse on the far outside, #10 Cool Quartet (5-2). He’s as honest as the day is long, and looks to sit a comfy stalking trip on the outside. Not a fan of an 8yr-old coming off a relatively short layoff, but I’m expecting a short field with a switch to dirt.
Race 8: 3 – 5 – 7
#3 Navy Seal (8-1) will need a pace meltdown to win, but I think that’s realistic. As the best closer on paper, Navy Seal got acclimated to the Cicero oval last time with an average effort. Now, he’s had time to train over the track and faces a field with a TON of early speed. Maybe I’m reaching too far, and perhaps the 6f is too short, but when I see a pace scenario so positive for a longer-priced horse, I have to tout.
Race 9: 12 – 2 – 5
#12 Calisue (3-1) is on the AE-list, but I expect her to get into the field. Assuming she does, she’ll be very formidable, as most of the field is best on turf and not nearly as fast on paper on dirt. The wide post will be negated by a smaller field, so I’m less worried about being hung wide early.
