By Will Humphrey
$1,000,000 is up for grabs in Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby at Parx – the last three-year-old restricted Grade 1 race of the year. A 1 1/8-mile event first run in 1979, the race has been won by high profile names such as Harlan’s Holiday, Bayern, Frosted, and last year’s winner Saudi Crown, who went gate to wire in the slop for Florent Geroux and Brad Cox. One of the best ways to navigate tricky handicapping puzzles such as the Pennsylvania Derby, is to look back at past renewals of the race; finding commonalities shared amongst recent winners that we can use to successfully cash a ticket on Saturday. So, without further ado, let’s dive in!
Key Trends from the past 10 renewals
Market Trends:
The betting market has been a fairly accurate guide to finding the winner of the Pennsylvania Derby, highlighted by the fact that the post time favorite has been successful in seven of the last ten renewals. Even though Math Wizard’s 31/1 success in 2019 significantly inflates this number, the average winning odds in this race have been just 5.48/1, so when searching for the winner, it really does pay to focus on the top of the market. However, bettors have been entitled to get creative when playing horizontal wagers, as the average starting price for all thirty horses to have hit the board in the last ten years has been a much healthier 12.69/1. Massive-priced runners have often outperformed their odds in this race, such as Trigger Warning, who finished third at 81/1 in 2018.
Draw and Running Style:
With a short run into he first bend at Parx, focusing on horses with middle to low draws has been a profitable angle in this race, as six of the last ten winners had been drawn in gate four or lower, and all ten winners were drawn in gate eight or lower. Only Giuseppe the Great (2017), and Il Miracolo (2023), managed to hit the board from a post position wider than eight, which isn’t good news for fans of STRONGHOLD.
Regarding running style, bettors should place extra weight on horses who look as if they will be on or near the lead. Since 2014, five winners of the Pennsylvania Derby led gate to wire, and no winner had been further than 4.5 lengths off the pace/worse than sixth position at the second point of call. That could be a concern for the likes of UNCLE HEAVY and TIMEOUT. For horizontal players, it may also be worth noting that since 2014, every horse to have been in front after the first half mile managed to finish in the first five, including bigger priced runners such as Mr Z, who held on for fourth at odds of 12/1 in 2015.
Horse profile:
Somewhat unsurprisingly, it’s been beneficial to focus in on horses who have recently proven their ability to compete at a high level around two turns, as all ten winners since 2014 had won stakes race over 9f+, or finished at least second in a graded stake around two turns since the New Year. That could be seen as a negative for DOC SULLIVAN, LONESOME BOY, TIMEOUT, PROTECTIVE, JUST STEP ON IT and WHO’S THE KING, who have all failed to do so just yet.
Furthermore, all ten winners had previously recorded a Beyer speed figure of at least 98 in one of their last three starts, with nine of them having broken the 100 barrier. In Saturday’s renewal, only SEIZE THE GREY and UNMATCHED WISDOM can claim to have done that.
Also, bear in mind that horses who ran in one of the Triple Crown Series often take a lot of money, however, five of the last ten winners had skipped the Triple Crown Series and made no more than four starts that year, allowing them to benefit from having fresher legs. Don’t get entirely sucked into using horses with notable names!
Prep Races:
Saudi Crown became the first of four horses to have successfully prepped for this race in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) last year, extinguishing what could have been a concern for supporters of SEIZE THE GREY. Two winners of this race had made their prior start in the Haskell Stakes (G1), while McKinzie (2018), used Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes (G2) as his prep. However, it’s the Travers Stakes (G1) that has been the most significant source of Pennsylvania Derby winners. Since 2014, a total of twenty-one horses have contested this race having previously started in the Mid-Summer Derby at Saratoga, producing five winners (24%) and thirteen ITM finishes (62%). That comes even though horses such as Bayern (2014), and Connect (2016), were well beaten at Saratoga. UNMATCHED WISDOM is the only horse following that preparation path this year.
Math Wizard (2019), successfully prepped for this race with an off-the-board finish in the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer, which will be reassuring to supporters of Saturday’s ML favorite, DRAGOON GAURD. However, it should be noted that sixteen other horses have been unsuccessful in taking that route, including six WV Derby winners such as Cupid (2016), and Skippylongstocking (2022), who both took plenty of money at Parx.
Interestingly, the most unsuccessful prep race for the Pennsylvania Derby has been Parx’s very own prep race – the Smarty Jones Stakes. Since 2014, horses exiting that race have gone 0-for-15 in the Pennsylvania Derby, with only four of them even managing to hit the board. That includes seven Smarty Jones Stakes winners, such as Il Miracolo, in 2023. Less surprising, is the abysmal record of horses trying their hand in this race who had previously run in a non-stakes race. They are 0-for-12 since 2014 with only one ITM finish, which could be a concern for TIMEOUT, PROTECTIVE and WHO’S THE KING.
Trainers:
The records of trainers with runners in this year’s race, who have started horses in the Pennsylvania Derby since 2014, are as follows:
- D Lukas: 1-0-0 from 3 starters (33% win, 33% ITM)
- B Cox: 1-0-1 from 4 starters (25% win, 50% ITM)
- C Brown: 1-1-0 from 5 starters (20% win, 40% ITM)
- S Joseph: 1-0-0 from 4 starters (25% win, 25% ITM)
- T Pletcher: 0-1-3 from 9 starters (0% win, 44% ITM)
- W Mott: 0-0-0 from 3 starters (0% win, 0% ITM)
- L Linder: 0-0-0 from 1 starter (0% win, 0% ITM)
With this race being an ‘out-of-town’ event for most trainers and jockeys, we’re dealing with fairly small sample sizes here, making it difficult to form any strong trends. However, it is worth noting that, despite their runners often taking plenty of money at the windows, Pletcher and Mott have gone winless from a combined thirteen starts since 2014. Fancied horses from their barns, such as Speaker’s Corner, Madefromlucky and Scotland, all failed to hit the board in this race – make of that what you please.
Jockeys:
The records of jockeys with mounts in this year’s race, who have ridden in the Pennsylvania Derby since 2014, are as follows:
- M Smith: 3-1-0 from 7 starters (43% win, 57% ITM)
- J Rosario: 1-0-2 from 3 starters (33% win, 100% ITM)
- F Geroux: 1-1-1 from 4 starters (25% win, 75% ITM)
- I Ortiz: 1-1-0 from 6 starters (16% win, 33% ITM)
- F Prat: 1-0-0 from 2 starters (50% win, 50% ITM)
- J Ortiz: 0-0-0 from 3 starters (0% win, 0% ITM)
- M Sanchez: 0-0-1 from 1 starter (0% win, 100% ITM)
Mike Smith clearly has a standout record in this race, however, all three of his winners came on short-priced Bob Baffert trained favorites, so having him on board may not be as much of an advantage as it would appear. On the other hand, Joel Rosario and Florent Geroux have consistently done well in this race with a variety of long and short-priced mounts, so it may be worth paying extra attention to them on Saturday.
Positives to look for:
- Towards the top of the betting market
- Drawn middle to low
- Likely to be on or stalking the pace
- Won a stake over 9f+/finished 1-2 in a two-turn graded stake in 2024
- Recorded a Beyer of at least 98
- Skipped the Triple Crown races
- Ran in the Travers Stakes
- Ridden by Joel Rosario or Florent Geroux
Negatives to be wary of:
- Drawn wider than gate eight
- Hold up horses
- Yet to win a stake over 9f+/finish 1-2 in a two-turn graded stake in 2024
- Ran in either the Smarty Jones Stakes or non-stakes race last time
- Trained by Mott or Pletcher
Verdict
Obviously, no horse is going to fit all of the trends, but I would be wary of using any of the horses exiting either the Smarty Jones Stakes or a non-stakes race, especially WHO’S THE KING and UNCLE HEAVY, who, like STRONGHOLD, have both been drawn in the grandstand.
The two horses who fit the most trends for this year’s race are DRAGOON GAURD and UNMATCHED WISDOM, who both exit productive prep races and should be adopting forward positions from gates seven and eight, respectively. DRAGOON GAURD doesn’t yet have the same credentials as recent winning favorites of this race, who were already leading players in the three-year-old division with G1 wins on their CVs, (names such as Frosted, Bayern, and Hot Rod Charlie), but he’s heading in that direction and this could be his coming out party for last year’s winning connections. His speed figures don’t set him apart from the field, however, he’s seemingly been winning with an amount in hand and isn’t short of stamina, so I expect him to either be on or stalking a hot pace, before (hopefully), driving away late.
UNMATCHED WISDOM recorded a Beyer of 99 when winning the 1 1/8-mile Curlin Stakes two back (second fastest Beyer in the race), and as we have seen, horses exiting the Travers Stakes have a phenomenal record in this race. Things didn’t go to plan for him there, as following a couple of bumps out of the gate, he failed to get forward with so much speed drawn outside of him, and he also wasn’t helped by the fact that his hind wrap came loose. Prior to the Travers however, he had shown plenty of early speed and from gate eight, Flavian Prat should be able to work him into a favorable forward/stalking position – just like he did with Hot Rod Charlie in 2021. Interestingly, he has an almost identical CV to that of Brown’s 2016 Pennsylvania Derby winner, Connect, who had also made only four prior starts that year, won the Curlin Stakes, and then finished off-the-board in the Travers last time. Brown clearly believes that he is up to this level and with Prat on an absolute heater right now, I’ll happily use him at around 8/1.
To round out the trifecta, I’m going to try to get DOC SULLIVAN into the top three. He’s yet to win a stake over 9f+, however, both of his recent defeats came to the exceptionally talented Panadgate (who would be single figure odds here), and he didn’t look short of stamina when closing late over the trip last time. His speed figures make him competitive in here and unlike a number of his rivals, he arrives here in good form. Jose Ortiz is likely to be aggressive from the inside post and settle him in a stalking/mid-pack position, from which, I hope that he can hold on for a slice.
Selections: 7-8-1
Whichever way you chose to play, good luck with your Pennsylvania Derby wagers and make sure that you subscribe to ITM PLUS for more!
