Historical Trends and Analysis – The Tampa Bay Derby

Race History

Run over 1 1/16 miles and offering a purse of $400,000, as well as 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner, the Tampa Bay Derby has become the highlight of the season at Tampa Bay Downs.

First run in 1981 as the Budweiser Tampa Bay Derby Stakes, the race instantly became the richest event ever run at the track, which helped draw in some talented runners from around the country and ultimately earning the race G3 status by 1984. Budweiser ceased their sponsorship of the race in 1987 and the race went without sponsorship until Lambholm South emerged as a sponsor in 2016.

Having been downgraded to listed status in 1989, the race was reestablished to a Graded Stake in 2002, before being upgraded to G2 status in 2011. In 2023 it again was downgraded to a G3 but is still an essential part of the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’, which the Tampa Bay Derby has been part of since its inauguration in 2013.

The Tampa Bay Derby has had a strong impact on the ‘Run for the Roses’, with Street Sense becoming the first horse to win in both Florida and Kentucky in 2007. In 2010, Super Saver, would finish 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby, before going onto capture the Kentucky Derby two starts later.

Other notable winners of the Tampa Bay Derby include G1 winners Carpe Diem (2014), G1 Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit (2017) and also Tacitus (2019), who would finish 3rd and 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes respectively and earn over $3m in his career.

Here, we will look at some key historical trends, to help find this year’s winner.

Key Trends Since 2014

• Wide draws have done surprisingly well in the last 10 renewals, with 7/10 winners having been drawn in gates 5 or wider. This includes Tacitus (2019), King Guillermo (2020) and Helium (2021), who were drawn in gates 10,11 and 10 respectively, proving that wide draws should not be feared.
• Favorites have a very mixed record in the Tampa Bay Derby. 4/10 favorites have won since 2014, including the last two winners, Classic Causeway and Tapit Trice. However, 5/10 winners started at odds of over 8/1 and the average winning odds of the last 10 winners has been a solid 11.36/1, and so it’s definitely not been an overly chalky race. It should be noted though, that 7/10 favorites finished in the first 3 and so they should be respected by vertical players.
• Horses who poses good early speed have been dominant in this race, with 7/10 winners having been positioned within 3 lengths of the lead after the first 1/2 mile, including Ring Weekend (2014) and Classic Causeway (2022), who both went gate to wire. Tapit Trice was positioned in 9th at the second point of call when he won last year, but he was only 4.5 lengths off of the pace setter. Tacitus (2019) remains the lone winner who came from over 5 lengths back to win.
• Looking for horses already proven at both the grade and distance has also been beneficial in finding the winner of this race, with 9/10 winners already having won a race over one mile or further and 6/10 having already posted a top 3 finish in a stakes race, five of which had won. However, three of the last ten winners were making their stakes debut and 2018 winner Quip, had only finished 7th in his one prior stakes race and this is not a hard and fast rule.
• The Tampa Bay Derby has also been a launching pad for more unexposed horses as 9/10 winners had made no more than four starts prior to success in this race. The one exception was Ring Weekend (2014), who already had five races under his belt. It should be noted though, that as well as no horse having run more than five times prior to their Tampa success, no horse has won this race off of only one start either.
• Within their prior starts, all ten winners since 2014 had run an Equibase Speed Figure of 93 or higher, including Ring Weekend (2014), who had posted an ESP of 94 when he finished 2nd in a MSW at Gulfstream. This can be seen as a significant positive for both Heartened and No More Time, who are the only two horses in this year’s race to fill this criteria.
• In the last 10 years, thirty horses have run in the Tampa Bay Derby having contested the Sam F. Davis Stakes last time out but only three of them (Destin in 2016, Tapwrit in 2017 and Classic Causeway in 2022), won the Tampa Bay Derby. 3/30 isn’t an impressive record and it’s interesting to note that eight winners of the Sam F. Davis Stakes have tried to follow up in the Tampa Bay Derby, but only Destin (2016) and Classic Causeway (2022) managed to complete the double. Six Sam F. Davis winners have failed to follow up the Tampa Bay Derby, despite often being heavily bet, with the likes of Sole Volante (2020) and Candy Man Rocket (2021) both beaten favorites in this race. It should also be noted that horses who made their last start in Gulfstream’s Holy Bull Stakes, are 0/7 in this race since 2014. The form of these two races shouldn’t be overvalued.
• Todd Pletcher has a strong record in the Tampa Bay Derby, holding a 4-3-2 record from his 17 starters. What’s more, three of his runners started as the post time favorite (Carpe Diem in 2015, Tapwrit in 2017 and Tapit Trice in 2023), and all of them won. On the other hand, Chad Brown has only finished 6th and 9th with his two runners in this race.

Takeaways

• Look for horses drawn 5 or wider and don’t be scared of betting horses drawn right outside.
• Favor horses who poses good early speed and will be close to the pace.
• Be cautious of favorites (unless using them in vertical wagers) and keep in mind that the average winning odds over the last 10 years has been 11.36/1.
• Be very wary of horses who are yet to win a race over one mile or further.
• Be wary of any horses who have only raced once or already started more than four times in their career. Remember that 9/10 winners had made either two, three or four prior starts.
• Be aware that all of the last 10 winners had already recorded an Equibase Speed figure of 93 or higher, which only applies to Heartened and No More Time this year.
• Don’t be sucked in to overvaluing the form of the Holy Bull or Sam F. Davis Stakes. The combined record for horses exiting these races is 3/37.
• Strongly respect anything trained by Todd Pletcher but be wary of Chad Brown trained runners.

Verdict: #7 No More Time (ML 7/5)

There’s a strong chance that No More Time will start at the top of the market, but despite the fact that only four of the last ten favourites have won this race and only three winners have emerged out of the Sam F. Davis, No More Time still remains the horse who fits the most trends. Firstly, he’s almost certain to be positioned on or close to the lead, having gone gate to wire last time out. He set legitimate fractions on the lead in the Sam F. Davis, of 46.61 for the half and 1:10.81 for three quarters, which makes it impressive that his closing sectional was the second fastest in the race, only bettered by runner up, Agate Road. He fits the trends of having had between two and four lifetime starts, he’s proven himself at the distance and grade, and as we have seen in the past, a wider post position is certainly no hindrance to his chances. Remember that seven of the last ten winners were drawn in gate five or wider. Only No More Time and Todd Pletcher’s, Heartened, have recorded an ESF of over 93, which is worth taking note of. However, the inside post, combined with the fact that Heartened wasn’t particularly tested last time, by being allowed to dawdle out in front at odds of 2-5, may mean that today’s jump up in class could be a shock to his system and quite frankly, we don’t really no how good he is. Domestic Product is an interesting contender, but he’s unlikely to be up on the pace and combining that factor with the poor record of Holy Bull starters in this race, Chad Brown’s questionable record in the Tampa Bay Derby and the ESF of his last start, I’m happy to go against him. No More Time is battle hardened and his trainer Jose D’Angelo hits at 30% at Tampa. Based on his fastest of twenty-seven, half mile workout of 47 4/5 on March 2, it appears that he’s come out of his last race well and can put them to the sword again today.

Good luck if you’re playing the Tampa Bay Derby and please do leave a comment, letting us know who you fancy.

© William Humphrey