Historical Trends of Recent Kentucky Derby Winners – Adam Discepolo

Historical Trends of Recent Kentucky Derby Winners

By: Adam Discepolo

If you could create your own horse pulling different characteristics available, what would
a Kentucky Derby winner look like? If you play fantasy football, you undoubtedly know
who Matthew Berry is. At the start of every football season he runs through a list of facts
creating a picture of why you should or shouldn’t draft a player based on his perception
given. Consider this like that, or an equine version of the children’s game Guess Who.
I wanted to go back and see what more recent winners have in common, if anything,
and see if this year’s participants, if any, meet that mold. So, let’s look through some
commonality between recent winners and sprinkle in some historical trends that may
play in favor or against one or many of the runners in this year’s Derby.
In keeping with the feel of the game Guess Who, does your person wear glasses? (aka
blinkers). Since 2000,11 horses have added blinkers for the first time for the Derby, with
none winning, and only one finishing as high as 4 th …….. YOU’RE CHIEF WALLABEE!
Who will be donning the shades for the first time in his career in his derby start.
Below is a list of other several key attributes from prior champions of the first Saturday
of May and will allow you to play your own version of Guess Who helping you eliminate
contenders that may not fit the champions mold, narrowing down to your final horse or
two.
– finishing in the top four of your final prep races (top 3 is even better)
– having run a race within the last five weeks (6 weeks+ layoff winners have been rare)
– possess high tactical speed. 11/16 recent winners were all in the front half of the field
after the first half mile
– elite stamina in pedigree mostly indicated by a sire who won a Grade 1 race at 1 1/16 th
or longer have produced 14 of the last 17 winners
– fast closing speed; specifically, a horse that can run the last 3/8 mile in :38seconds or
faster has produced 21 of the last 28 winners
– while post 5-15 is considered ideal, 16 of 31 winners since 1995 broke from post 13 or
higher. Post 5 has the most wins with 10, post 8 and 10 have 9 wins, and post 7 has 8
wins.
– horses that did not race as a 2-year-old rarely pass the finish line first in the run for the
roses.

– the average winning Beyer Speed figure is approximately 102-103 with nearly 85% of
winners since 2000 posting a career-best Beyer of at least 95 prior to the race.
-historically, a 100+ Beyer in a prep race is the benchmark for elite contenders although
there have been a few exceptions of late (Rich Strike 84, Mage 94).
-of recent, the key prep races for winners have been the Santa Anita Derby and the
Florida Derby producing 5 winners each since 2010. Blue Grass Stakes and Wood
Memorial winners have struggled to translate success for the Kentucky Derby, not
producing a winner since 2007, and no horse has won both races since 1991. Florida
Derby has produced 26 winners, 8 since 2000. Blue Grass has produced 23 winners
though only 1 since 2000. Wood Memorial has produced 3 winners since 2000. Santa
Anita Derby has produced 19 winners with 5 winners since 2000. Arkansas Derby has
produced 8 winners, 2 since 2004 (2015 was the other).
-although the starting gate has changed, post 1 hasn’t produced a winner since 1986
and post 2 hasn’t since 1978, and post 17 has never won.
-horses who have run two or three times as 3-year-olds have won 19 of the 21 last
– although close with Forever Young, international runners have struggled to make an
impact at the wire and are still winless.
– winners are rarely born in January, February and March are the most productive
months for winners.