Horseplayers Tour Tournament Selections and Analysis Friday 7/25/2025
By Adam Discepolo I @adamdiscepolo on X
Saratoga Race 8: 7-1-4
Not the strongest group of horses to kickoff this week’s tourney. With the likely favorites
leaving little to be desired, it is well worth taking a shot against them with the #7 Circuit
Court. The slight step up in class doesn’t necessarily concern me against a field like
this and did show good improvement from starts 1 to start 2. At the 6.5-furlong distance
I like horses that showed speed going longer, and with the #7 cutting back from 7
Furlongs I’ll take my shot at the price to create some early separation in this tournament.
The #1 Kate Barry is a fresh face to also consider compared to the rest of this group. At
least this horse hasn’t necessarily done anything wrong. Handal is 29% at debut MCL,
been working consistently showing strong works leading up to this debut. I don’t like first
timers breaking from the 1 post but again this isn’t the strongest field to kick off the
career against.
Saratoga Race 9: 5-3-6
If the 1-3 all stay in this race, that should create a solid pace duel up front. All 3
are going to go from the inside and I think that sets up for the #5 Gate to Wire to have a
nice trip sitting just behind the speeds of this race. I think the 6.5f distance could tax the
speed enough to setup for someone to close. Gate to wire owns the best closing speed
of anyone in the group here and if you look back 4 races to the Swale at GP, he did just
that against these same rivals. I think he has excuses in his following races from the
Swale, not wanting to stretch out in the Fountain of Youth where he faced Sovereignty
and then caught 2 wet tracks. He will be back on a fast track tomorrow at a preferred
sprinting distance where he recorded his career best beyer. Out of the speeds, the #3
Smoken Wicked would be preferred especially if any other speeds scratch out. He
chased a fast pace against top horse Verifire and had an excuse in the race prior.
Again, I do like speed horses cutting back and I think the 6.5f distance could be the right
distance for this horse.
Saratoga Race 10: 5-9-2
The #4 Professor Grace returns to the lawn where she ran her career best beyer
speed fig. I like that the connections felt confident to try her back up against Maiden
Special Weight company for her first time on the grass, I think she just lands in a realistic spot now, dropping back down to the Maiden Claiming ranks. I think she has
had excuses in every start thus far, which could also be a concern, but if Castellano can
get her to break and settle, I think she will sit close enough to get an early jump in this
relatively paceless affair. The #9 Practical Romance drops down to Maiden Claiming
for Russell who fires at 30% with this move. Johnny V sticks around in the last race to
ride this filly who does exit a sprint race where she showed brief speed before fading.
Speed and fade followed by a drop in class is a nice angle to consider and perhaps
Johnny V can be aggressive with her for early position and is sticking around for a
reason. The #2 Dividend Recap comes off a lengthy nearly 2-year layoff but does get
1 st time Lasix, if she can repeat her first career start where she closed into a slow pace
after breaking slowly, she could win this race but the long layoff is a concern.
Del Mar Race #1: 4-5-8
I will continue to respect the CD form and the #4 Get Her Number ships back to Cali
after competing in a solid race there where the winner came back to win next out. This
horse has plenty of back class and could be rounding back into form. You can make
excuses 2 and 3 back. Although he hasn’t been the winning type of recent, if the pace
heats up between the #1 and #8 I think he could make a late run as the pace falls apart.
If either of those 2 horses scratch, you must upgrade the other as wire candidates. The
#5 Clampett has solid speed figs, if you follow the angle of throwing out the last race
before a layoff, his Beyer numbers are tops for the group but will have to settle for a
short price. Horse for course hitting the board 4/5 at Del Mar.
Del Mar Race #2: 6-9-5
The #6 Heart Headed has excuses for his last 2 races with troubled trips but if his race 3
back makes him a serious contender here, and I imagine a similar pace scenario.
Mullins is 36% first off the claim and JJ Hernandez keeps his mount with this horse.
Del Mar Race #3: 7-2-5
In a race like this you either want to take someone dropping down from MSW or a fresh
face. Ill take the fresh face of #7 Coastal Fire against this field. Koriner is 14% with first
timers and 25% debut MCL (although small sample size). Coastal Fire is by Straight Fire
who strikes at 20% debut. The #2 Chica Tigre comes out of a race in Emerald downs
that has produced a pair of next out winners, however with Hernandez aboard I dont
expect this horse to offer much value.
Del Mar Race #4: 4-8-7
If the #2 Yellow Card returns off the layoff the way he finished his campaign he will be a
handful in here. McCarthy has Ok stats coming off a break like this shooting 16%. I
always find it hard to win first out in a 5f sprint like this. Out of the sprinters #4 Book
Smart has the most recency and shortest layoff to contend with. This horse is fast and
will be the speed of the speed in here. The 5f turf distance has produced a 99 beyer on
the lone attempt and I just think with so many horses coming off lengthier layoffs, he
could have his way on the front end. If things do heat up on the front end, look for the #7
Doncic coming running late especially with so many sprinters coming off layoffs the
race may fall apart a little, however I think the 5f distance might be too sharp for him.
The #8 Proof He Rides is another with a layoff to contend with, but he was running
lights out hitting the board in his last 8 tries with 5 wins during that time. Hes 2/3 at the
distance, has been training well and S. McCarthy is 20% with +180day layoff.
Del Mar Race #5: 4-9-3
The #1 Money Run seems to have lost some of his zip since being claimed away from
Steve Asmussen back on 6/14. This race screams chaos to me with a lot of speed
signed on so im going to take a shot here with the #4 Haywood at a price. He also
appears to have lost his form since being claimed away from Doug O’Neill however he
has been in against tougher company and not racing at preferred distance. His races 3
and 4 back make him a standout here and at a M/L 12-1 I think is worth a shot in
tournament play. I think the #9 Otro Mas is also interesting running a bang-up race last
out and showed some tactical speed which would benefit him in a race like this. His
recency shows he’s in good form with a last out 75 beyer and although its technically a
step up in class, I look to try to find horses that are holding form vs hoping one can find
their form again.
Del Mar Race #6: 2-3-8
If the #8 Ride Elbow Ranch can shake free of rival #9 Ridegold he will most likely end
up in the winner’s circle as there isn’t much pace to contend with in this race. However, I
don’t like taking short prices on horses that have hard times finishing their races so I will
let this horse beat me. I am looking to the inside to the #2 Lavender Love who is going
2 nd out for Baltas stretching out from a sprint to a route with some traffic trouble excuse
last out and the #3 Winter Snow whose race 2 back make him a big threat late if the
speed doesn’t hold up front. He’s been behind 2 next out winners the last 2 races he’s competed in and I don’t think he had the best of rides in his last race and could bounce
back today.
Del Mar Race #7: 7-11-5
To end things, I’m going to go with the #7 Lady Mendelssohn, I like the cutback, I like
the addition of blinkers, which Gaines strikes at 20% with and I like the rider upgrade to
Rispoli. This lightly raced Filly has room for improvement and I think can significantly
outrun her M/L odds at 12-1. The #11 Ellen Jorth comes in 3 rd of the layoff for D’amato
after trying turf rather successfully in prior races which makes me think D’Amato is
entering her for a reason. The #5 Drink This Cup comes in with speed from Delaware
and I find it interesting she draws JJ Hernandez to mount.
Best of luck to all the players out there!
