Horses to Follow – Friday, October 04, 2024.

By Will Humphrey

Opening day at Keeneland and graded stake action at BAQ – a Friday treat to get us warmed up for a monster weekend of racing. Here’s a few horses to consider using in your Friday wagers. Good luck!

BAQ Race 2 – OC 62k/N2X Allowance (1 3/16 Miles, Turf): #3 ETERNAL SILENCE

• Trainer: Christophe Clement
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Morning line odds: 7/5

The weather looks as if, on the whole, it’s going to play ball in New York this week and so hopefully we can scratch out the three MTO entries for this competitive OC 62k/N2X allowance, leaving us with a high-quality field of eight – seven of whom have previously competed at stakes level.

The horse of most interest in this spot is one of Clement’s two charges, ETERNAL SILENCE; an extremely well related Moyglare Stud owned and bred four-year-old daughter of WAR FRONT, who quickly developed into a high-class filly when trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland. Running as a maiden in start number two, she became GSP with a third place finish behind future Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1) winner, ASPEN GROVE, before in start number three of her career, she became G1 placed by chasing home Irish 1,000 Guineas (G1) winner, TAHIYRA, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner, MEDITATE, in the Moygalre Stud Stakes (G1) at the Curragh.

Having then maintained a high level of form into her three-year-old season, breaking her maiden at Nass last June and running fourth in a listed stake at Killarney, she shipped over to America and contested the Valley View Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, where she ran a better than looks sixth after meeting traffic through the stretch and been denied the chance to fully extend until it was all too late. Nevertheless, there was no disgrace in finishing less than four lengths behind G1 winner, SURGE CAPACITY.

A barn switch and a 254-day layoff followed, before she resurfaced with an emphatic success over 1 1/8 miles here at BAQ in July. She was bet hard into even money that day, and justifiably so. Despite over-racing somewhat, she powered away in the stretch to win by two lengths in advance of galloping out isolated, over five lengths ahead of the field with an 84 Beyer. In behind her that day finished GSP performer MS ASTOR, and her re-opposing stablemate, IN TIME – not bad off the layoff.

A repeat of that effort should be enough for her to get the job done again here, although, as that race was her first for 252-days, it’s not inconceivable that she is actually going to take another step forward, especially as she gets and extra 1/16 miles to work with, which should be to her benefit.

Is the fact that we haven’t seen her for another 89-days a concern? Not for me. She’s had six decent works since August 06, Clement wouldn’t run her if she wasn’t ready to perform, and confidence can be taken in the fact that Clement has a 23% strike rate (6-for-26) with horses making their second start off a 200+ day layoff, 50-100 days after their return.

Having showed last time that she has the ability to lay close to the speed over 1 1/8 miles, Joel Rosario (21%/Clement) should be able to position her accordingly to the pace scenario and I expect that, should she oblige here, a return to stakes action will follow. She looks an exciting new addition to Clement’s barn and is a filly to follow with interest, although the market will probably be a good guide if planning on getting involved at skinny enough odds.

Keeneland Race 3 – 3yo+ MSW (7f, Dirt): #2 EBHAAJ

• Trainer: Andrew McKeever
• Jockey: Adam Beschizza
• Morning line odds: 20/1

Seven have been entered for this 7f MSW, where all eyes will be on Brad Cox’s trainee, UPON A STAR; a $295k relation of two-time G1 winner LADY TAK, who ran an 84 Beyer on debut when chasing home a 3/5 favorite, 246-day ago. We haven’t seen this filly for a while now, but she’s been working up a storm at Churchill Downs recently including when she fired a 46.40 bullet gate drill alongside SOUK PLAZA on September 22. Cox hits at 31% with horses returning from 200+ day layoffs and at a short price, UPON A STAR is likely going to bolster that strike rate.

However, if she doesn’t float your boat and you want to take her on, or you just want to use some back-ups in a full field MSW, or you want to find some horses to use underneath, then at a wild price, it could be worth taking a second look at the Shadwell Stable homebred daughter of SPEIGHTSTOWN, EBHAAJ.

Going out for Andrew McKeever’s barn, this filly took some money and was bet down to odds of 5/1 when sprinting five furlongs on turf first time out at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but never really got involved. She was drawn out in the parking lot, looked outpaced from the word go, got out badly around the bend and then showed greenness in the stretch. She was beaten twelve lengths in the end and awarded an unexciting Beyer of 32 for the effort – not very promising stuff.

So, how has she got any shot in here, I hear you ask? Well, let me take you down a rabbit hole. You see, if you go back a couple of generations in her pedigree, you will find that her granddam was a half sister to G1 winning turf champions/sires of sires NASHWAN and NAYEF, and the list of G1 winning turf horses in the family is endless. However, there’s plenty of top-quality dirt form in the family as well. Her sire was a G1 winning dirt sprinter whose offspring hit at 19% on in dirt sprints, compared to 14% on turf; her dam is by G1 winning dirt sprinter HARD SPUN, and she herself is a half sister to the dams of: G3 winning dirt sprinter, WAFY, two time G3 winning dirt miler, MUNTAZAH, and listed stake winning dirt sprinter KHUZAAM.

Therefore, based on EBHAAJ’s pedigree, I’m intrigued by the turf to dirt move that she’s making here, especially as to my eye, she has the physical build of a dirt horse. Furthermore, I’m taken by the fact that over the last three years, McKeever has been hitting at 32% and 58% ITM (6-for-19; $2.23 ROI) when making this move, including with a 6/1 winner at this meet last year and a 22/1 runner-up at this meet two years ago. Furthermore, his overall percentage in dirt MSW races is 25% (7-for-28; $5.09 ROI), which is higher than his turf MSW percentage of 16% (6-for-38; $6.78 ROI).

Now, all of this information is completely irrelevant if EBJAAH just can’t run, but I think it’s too early to rule that out. After all, she’s tremendously well bred and took money on debut because she had been putting in some solid morning drills on the dirt here at Keeneland, including a 46.60 bullet half mile move from the gate, August 15. Also, having tried to get out around the bend last time and shown greenness in the stretch, I’m liking the addition of blinkers which should help her out massively and, on that point, it’s worth noting that McKeever scored with a 20/1 shot using first time blinkers in a MSW at the Keeneland April Meet last year.

So, with all that said, do I think that she’s going to beat the chalk? Probably not, on all known form. However, the key to this game is finding value and at a huge price, I do think that she’s going to outrun her odds and I for one will be using her on my tickets.

Keeneland Race 5 – N2X Allowance (1 1/8 Miles, Turf): #10 OLIVIA MARALDA

• Trainer: Will Walden
• Jockey: Flavian Prat
• Morning line odds: 3/1

Two races after EBHAAJ has hopefully caused a mammoth upset in the third at Keeneland, a competitive full field of twelve will line up in this 1 1/8-mile NX2 allowance on the turf, where former ITM eye catcher, OLIVIA MARALDA, catches the eye.

Owned by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, the daughter of KODIAC started her career with Michael O’Callaghan in Ireland and quickly rose to prominence, finishing second on debut to future three time GSW, ZARINSK, before going onto achieve other noticeable pieces of form including: a win in the listed Surrey Stakes on Epsom Derby day, a runner-up effort behind future G2 winner STATUETTE, a second place finish in a G2 behind 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner, MEDITATE, and a seventh place finish in the Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (G1), won by BC Mile runner-up, MAWJ. By the time that OM left England to join Will Walden’s team last September, she was rated 108 by the British handicapper and had recorded a peak RPR rating of 111, which would typically be good enough for her to become a legitimate GS performer on this side of the pond. Now, I might be in the minority here, but personally, I think that she still could.

There was plenty to like about her debut performance here at Keeneland in April, where she closed strongly form off the pace to finish second, beating G1 runner-up SACRED WISH, and there was even more to like about her second start in America, when she was beaten only half a length by ANISETTE in the Gamely Stakes (G1) over at Santa Anita. Her speed figures would suggest that her form has subsequently taken a downhill slide since then, however, I’m willing to toss both of her recent races and hope that she can continue back on an upward trajectory from now.

The reason being, when she ran at Monmouth in the Matchmaker Stakes (G3) two back, that race became the definition of a ‘merry go round’, as they dawdled through such slow fractions that there was only one change of order from the half mile pole to the wire (the fourth placed horse after the first half mile eventually finished third), and OM was unfortunately the filly who took a bump at the gate and was last early – exactly where she finished. Then, last time out in the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs, she ran well to finish fourth by three lengths but was arguably compromised by the inside rail bias which helped the top two finishers run 1-2 throughout. In fact, owing to its quirky nature, I’m often dubious of any KY Downs form, period.

If like me you are indeed willing to toss those two races out and look back to her British form and her two prior American starts, a case could be made that this filly still retains the potential to become a high-class turf router in America. As she now drops back into allowance company, gets lasix back on, and reunites with Flavian Prat, I’m hopeful that she can find the winners circle for the first time stateside. She holds a form and speed figure edge over her competition here, should be able to sit a beautiful stalking trip from gate ten, Prat and Walden hit at 30% together, and Walden himself is 4-for-12 at Keeneland with 8 ITM finishes and a $5.90 ROI over the last year. There’s plenty to like about her chances in this spot and if the morning line holds at around 3/1, she could make that look a gift.

BAQ Race 5 – The Grade 3 Futurity Stakes (6f, Turf): #6 I’M OTTER HERE

• Trainer: Jeff Hiles
• Jockey: Jamie Torres
• Morning line odds: 6/1

Last but not least, we’re heading back to BAQ for The G3 Futurity Stakes run over 6f on the turf, where at the prices, I’M OTTER HERE deserves a second look.

Trained by Jeff Hiles, this two year old son of MUNNINGS has a fascinating pedigree, as he is out of a winning Irish trained turf route winner, who herself is a half to French G2 winner, LISTEN IN, Royal Ascot winner ZHUI FENG, British G2 winning sprinter ES QUE LOVE, and $2m earner DOMINANT, who finished third in a G2 when trained in England, before he was sold to Hong Kong and beat four time G1 winner/BC Turf runner-up, THE FUGE, by scoring in the Hong Kong Vase (G1).

With that deep pedigree behind him, I’M OTTER HERE went straight into the tracker when he finished an eye-catching third over 5 1/2f at Ellis Park on debut. He broke slowly that day and was second to last early on but traveled very strongly in rear, and then circled the field under minimal urging, maintaining strong strides all the way to the wire to be beaten by just over one length. The winner of that race: CHASING LIBERTY, who re-opposes here having come straight back to ‘win’ and then be DQ’d in the $1m Juvenile Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs, officially won by the also re-opposing, UNDER WHO’S RADAR. To my eye, having covered the final 3/16 miles 0.60s faster than the winner and then galloped in front, I’M OTTER HERE shaped as if he was better than CL that day and had the race been run over today’s trip, the result could very well have been different. So, on that theory, should the price discrepancy between the two, or between IOH and UNDER WHO’S RADAR be quite so large?

Hiles then stretched his trainee out to one mile in start number two and with minimum fuss, the maiden was broken, as he dusted his nine rivals by a comfortable two lengths in near gate to wire fashion at Ellis Park (76 Beyer), entitling connections to take a shot in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes. The result of that race would suggest that he underperformed at odds of 6/1 – but did he?

Personally, I don’t think that he took a step backward in anyway whatsoever last time out; he was just simply unable to set fractions of 22.72 and 44.72 in a one-mile race and expect to get home – even at Kentucky Downs. He set a pace that completely fell apart, so I’m happy to give him a mulligan for the effort and look back to what he had done before then – shaping better than CHASING LIBERTY on debut, before producing a speed figure that makes him competitive here – both of which are factors that make him look overpriced.

This six-furlong trip should hit him square between the eyes, as even though he’s shown better gate speed lately and will probably be adopting a stalking/mid-pack position, he is almost guaranteed to still be running hard at the end of a race which could see the pace slow considerably late on. It could set up beautifully for him and on ability, I really don’t think that he’s that far behind the favorites – if at all. Whether he does indeed get the job done or not remains to be seen but at around 6/1, he looks to be providing value.

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Friday and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!