By Will Humphrey ©
Three horses to consider using in your Sunday wagers. Good luck!
· Laurel, Race 6: #3 ST JOHN’S (6/1 ML)
A 1 1/16-mile N1X turf allowance kicks off the $0.50 late Pk5 sequence at Laurel on Sunday, featuring three stakes including the $125,000 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash, which goes as race nine.
Graham Motion’s SWORE returns to the track following a 151-day layoff and heads the morning line at odds of 2/1. With the best Beyer speed figures and Motion casually striking at 45% at Laurel, SWORE certainly warrants plenty of respect as a first-time gelding. However, the 1 1/16-mile distance is a question mark for this runner who broke his maiden over 1 1/2 miles last year, and so at a slightly larger price, it’s worth taking a good look at ST JOHN’S.
Originally trained by Brendan Walsh, the Godolphin bred 4yo gelding by HARD SPUN showed some promise early on by finishing 2nd to FIRST MISSION in his second start at the Fair Grounds, however, he didn’t quite cut the Godolphin mustard and so was sold to join Jack Fisher’s barn for $70,000 at the HRA sale last year.
ST JOHN’S broke his maiden in his second start for his new conditioner by going gate to wire in a $150k MSW at Kentucky Downs last year and since then, barring two unsuccessful steeplechase chase starts, he has continued to run well on the MD circuit including in his last two starts, which make him very live on Sunday.
Two starts back, when making his second start off the bench at Laurel, ST JOHN’S ran with enormous credit in a very slowly run event over today’s C&D which ultimately proved to be a sprint to the wire. Having come out of a 2 1/8-mile steeplechase, the race didn’t place enough emphasis on stamina for ST JOHN’S to get the job done, but there was no disrespect in finishing a close 3rd behind SPORTS EDITOR and subsequent two-time stakes winner, FULMINEO.
On Preakness day last time out at Pimlico, Fisher’s trainee briefly looked the winner of a salty allowance run on soft turf, having taken the lead in deep stretch only to be run down by a fast-finishing DEVISO who came straight back to win the Kent Stakes at Delaware next time out. The fourth and fifth place finishers from that race have also come back to win all three of their following starts between them, so it’s fair to race that the form has held up well.
ST JOHN’S comes into this race fresh and on paper, it doesn’t appear that he is going to bump into a next out stake winner for the third time in a row. His paired-up Beyer tops of 77 already make him extremely competitive in this spot and with a return to a firm surface, there’s a strong chance that he jumps up to record a career best effort on Sunday.
The lack of pace in here could be a slight concern, however, it would be a bigger concern for the favorite and ST JOHN’S does have the ability to go forward if Forest Boyce desires, just like he did at Kentucky Downs.
On speed figures and form, ST JOHN’S holds a great chance of getting the job done and everything looks in line for him to run a huge race. Provided he stays around the morning line odds of 6/1, he provides great value.
· Laurel, Race 9: #9 DEAN DELIVERS (5/2 ML)
Former Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) winner SIBELIUS is the star on show in the aforementioned Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Stakes at Laurel on Sunday, which will be run without the presence of #10 TWISTED RIDE. No doubt, SIBELIUS holds a great chance in this race as he makes his second start back from Dubai, however, he took a while to recapture his form following his trip to the Middle East last year and having had a hard race only 22-days ago in Gulfstream, I want to take him on here with DEAN DELIVERS.
Formerly trained by Michael Yates, the 5yo son of CAJUN BREEZE hit the board in seven stakes races before he eventually earned his day in the sun, posting a Beyer speed figure of 99 when scoring in the Big Drama Stakes at Gulfstream. 42-days later, DEAN DELIVERS made it back-to-back stake victories and became a graded stake winner in the Smile Sprint Stakes (G3), before finishing a creditable 3rd behind ELITE POWER in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1), almost exactly one year ago.
In his last two starts for Yates, DEAN DELIVERS’ form really tailed off as he was well beaten at short odds in the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, before he ran a near career low Beyer of 67 by disappointing as the 6/5 favorite in the Sprint Stakes at Tampa.
Since returning from Florida and joining the Ed Allard barn though, DEAN DELIVERS’ spark has returned. On May 27, he was nothing short of awesome when scorching to an 8-length success in the Mr. Prospector Stakes at Monmouth, and he followed that up last time with a 2 1/2 length blitz in the Alapocas Run Stakes at Delaware (96 Beyer).
He comes into this race in red-hot form, with some of the fastest speed figures and his confidence sky high. Using the Timeform US race ratings, Sunday’s race field is no tougher than those he has destroyed in his last two starts and without the presence of TWISTED RIDE, DEAN DELIVERS suddenly doesn’t have any pace pressure coming from his outside. That should enable him to either get the lead, or just stalk the pace closely while racing in the clear towards the outside, before using the same finishing kick to spurt away in the stretch. Jamie Rodriguez and Allard have an impressive record of 7 for 17 together (41%, 3.49 ROI), and so everything looks in place for DEAN DELIVERS to make it three on the bounce. As long as he stays around the 2/1 mark, he’s worth a win bet.
· Ellis Park, Race 5: #7 MO RHODES (6/1 ML)
A truly fascinating field of eight has been assembled for race five at Ellis Park on Saturday, an Alw 73000N2L going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. The field includes recent Bluegrass Stakes (G1) 5th place finisher and Preakness Stakes (G1) contender #1 MUGATU, as well as four up and coming individuals who cost over $300,000 at auction. The morning line is led at odds of 5/2 by the exceptionally well bred, CAROLO RAPIDO, who is out of 2016 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner CATHRYN SOPHIA and now makes his first start for Mike Maker’s barn. His pedigree and form are strong; however, his lack of speed and late running style always results in him having too much to do late on, and I think that MO RHODES can get the jump on him here.
Formerly trained by Dale Romans, MO RHODES is a $300,000 son of QUALITY ROAD out of stake winning mare MO D’AMOUR, making him a half brother to 2023 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) winner, SOUTHLAWN.
Having shown next to nothing as a 2yo, MO RHODES has gradually improved with each start through 2024, breaking his maiden in a MC50k at Keeneland three back and improving his speed figures in his two subsequent starts.
The last time we saw the son of QUALITY ROAD, he wasted energy by pulling very hard in behind horses while racing wide at Churchill Downs, before closing well on a speed favoring track to finish 3rd, one length behind the re-opposing #5 COPPER ECHO (6/1). Considering how hard he was tugging at the reins and the wide trip that he took, he did well to finish as close as he did, and with this race in mind, I thought that he shaped better than COPPER ECHO, who had everything his own way up front.
His last out Beyer of 80 is 5 points slower than what MUGATU recorded in the Iowa Derby, but I don’t think that it’s impossible for MO RHODES to jump up again here and scoop the pot.
When you look at this horse’s pedigree, one thing that sticks out is that MO RHODES’ dam took seven starts to break through the 80 barrier on the Beyer scale, before consistently competing in graded stakes throughout the rest of her career. His half-sister, SOUTHLAWN took five starts to do the same. I’m not saying that MO RHODES is going to develop into a topflight performer, but it does show that he comes from a late developing family who improve with age, and I doubt that his improvement has finished yet.
MO RHODES was claimed out of his last race and on Sunday will make his first start for the barn of Tom Amoss, who hits at a solid 22% with horses first off the claim. The 1 1/8 mile trip should help him step forward and the race also looks like it will set up perfectly, as there is enough speed inside of him to sit a close mid-pack/stalking trip from gate seven and then make one strong run in the stretch. Cristian Torres, who hits at 33% with Amoss (27 starts, 9 wins, $3.25 ROI), gets aboard for the first time on Sunday and at around 6/1, I think that MO RHODES is worth chancing.
Good luck to everyone having a wager on Sunday and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!
