JRA (Japan) Stakes Analysis – G1 Shuka Sho

“The white unicorn” Sodashi returns to G1 company in the final jewel of the Fillies Triple Tiara in Japan.  She’ll face a tough group of other fillies including the up and coming Andvaranaut in here.

Race 11 – G1 Shuka Sho – 1 1/4 Turf – 3yo Fillies – 2:40 am ET/11:40 pm PT

14 Fine Rouge – 3yo filly by Kizuna comes in off of a fantastic victory in the G3 Shion Stakes, finishing that race in a quick 1:58.2 for this same 1 1/4 distance.  This looks to be the ceiling for her distance wise but based on her last effort I see no issue with her doing it again.  She lures the services of top jock Lemaire in this race and has been training like a beast for this.  She chased race favourite Sodashi home in the G1 Oka Sho (1 Mile) but is a developing filly sitting on her A game (trainer has said she has grown and put on muscle since the spring).  Not a huge fan of her post but her running style should see her sitting mid-pack and Lemaire producing her run late.  Think Sodashi will take a ton of money in here so worth the price at 9/2 or higher.

9 Andvaranaut – The up and coming filly in the field has done little wrong since starting her career in late December of 2020.  Is two for two over this 1 1/4 distance, three for three ni the money at Hanshin and retains the services of Fukunaga today (could have ridden our top choice).  She comes in off of her first graded stakes win in the G2 Rose Stakes.  That day she came home in a very quick 33.9 seconds for the last 3f of the race.  Top connections and top breeding (her mom won a G3 over 1 1/4 at Hanshin and her dams dam is the star horse Air Groove  – 96 Japanese Oaks winner) say that she fits this type of race.  They’ve taken their time with her and I think she’ll only get better.  This will however be the shortest turnaround in her career (is usually given a months rest between starts) and the hype train may push her odds down.  See her working out a similar trip to our top choice and the two of them and Sodashi battling down the stretch.

4 Sodashi – The racing worlds darling right now and who can blame them!.  It’s not often you get a bright white filly that can back up her stunning looks.  Sodashi only has one blemish on her resume and that was in the G1 Japanese Oaks.  That day she was headstrong and was in a fight with jock Yoshida for the whole race.  She’ll need to show a bit more restraint in here to save some of her power for the end.  She took an unconventional route to this event with a score vs. tough older company (including G1 winning and top calibre mare Loves Only You) in the G2 Sapporo Kinen in late August.  On that win alone she SHOULD be able to beat her own sex but I still have concerns over her ability to save some for the end.  Her trainer was quoted this week saying she was once again getting headstrong so he too had concerns.  At odds of even money or so in here I will take my chances with others but certainly have savers with her just in case! 😉

11 Uberleben – The Oaks winner returns to the races and looks to make it back to back G1 victories.  She came out of the Oaks with a suspensory issue but trainer Tezuka says that all systems are now go.  A long winded filly who can run all day, she really seems to be more of a grinder than one that has an explosive late kick.  I’d love to see her run in the Japan Cup this year due to the weight break and her love of Tokyo Racecourse.  I think she’ll be in the top five in here but don’t think this is her day as she’ll get going late but it may be too late.  Certainly respect her and her connections but looking elsewhere for my top choices.

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