Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/19/24 – By Eric Solomon

There are several short prices on the morning line throughout the 10 race Friday card. However, I think several of them could be vulnerable in their given races. The feature today is the Grade 3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes, which drew a competitive field of 7. First post this afternoon is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The afternoon begins with $40K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs. I think Xtra Extraordinary (#6) is an interesting face in this race in her third career start. She ran twice on the Tapeta at Turfway, finishing 4th both times. She was a little flat in the final stages last out, but I still think there was improvement from her debut. She’s had four works over the main track at Churchill since being claimed by Rick Hiles out of that race. The dam has produced several runners that are competitive on multiple surfaces, so I think this filly could take a step forward here. While others are stretching out in distance, Greyhound Station (#8) is cutting back to a one turn race after four starts over the winter at the Fair Grounds. She ran twice in route races that were taken off the turf. Neither race was exceptional, but her last dirt sprint was solid. She came up a neck short that day and I see her as a horse that makes sense as a mid-range sprinter. 

Race 2:

The first of four races carded for the turf today is a maiden special weight for three year olds and up, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. Despite being green in the stretch, I really liked the effort from Bolt Action (#8) in his debut at the Fair Grounds. He sat just off the leaders early on, then he made a decisive move to take the lead away from the race favorite. It was at the point he started wandering all over the course, then tiring late. Perhaps his drifting was due to the yielding turf course or simply the fact that he was making his first start in ten months. I liked the turn of foot I saw to take the lead, if only for a few moments. The dam was a good turf sprinter in Australia and she produced a Grade 2 winner on dirt here in North America. I think he’s going to be the one beat in this race. Goldentown (#6) certainly could also have an impact, as he was third in that same race. He showed no early speed, lingering near the back of the pack in the early stages. He did close well in the stretch, getting into third without ever threatening the top two. I would like to see him a little closer to the pace in what is his second career start on the turf and his fourth overall. Speightstown gets 14% winners with turf sprinters and he was a little more tactical in his first two dirt races. Perhaps the firmer course will be more to his liking. First time starters have been doing well at this meet, this week especially. Paulo Lobo does a great job with debut runners and he sends out Royal Carol (#1) in this race. He’s a four year old that was been working well over the winter. The dam was a good turf sprinter in Brazil, even though she did struggle in her three starts stateside. Her first foal to race in the US is stakes placed on the dirt. However, she ran some solid races in turf routes to start her career. That filly is sired by Liam’s Map, while this colt is sired by Speightstown, so there could be more speed influence from that side of the family. I don’t love the rail draw in a large field for the debut, but there’s enough there to consider using this one. A crazy longshot to consider underneath would be Steel Link (#12), making his turf debut after showing improvement in three starts on synthetic at Turfway. As of yesterday, 23 horses that last raced at Turfway have found the Winner’s Circle at Keeneland. In the two turf sprints yesterday, Turfway horses blew up the toteboard, paying $105 and $52 to win in their respective races. He’s sired by Goldencents, who gets 13% in turf sprints. His dam won two career starts, one on the dirt and one on the turf. He’s going to have to improve to win this race, but there’s been enough of a pattern of improvement to think that he could take another step forward. I think it’s more likely that he finishes second or third than him winning this race. However, there’s enough there for me to take a small stab. 

Race 3:

I wrestled with the fact that Wupkar (#1) was entered in this $16K claiming race while dropping out of open N1X allowance company where she was moderately competitive. She’s a five year old mare who has run through most of her state bred allowance conditions. She seems to have lost a step or two as her speed figures over the last few races have declined from her best form earlier in 2023. Calhoun could have kept her in Louisiana where she could have tried some smaller state bred stakes races. However, he opts to bring her here and enter her for a tag for the first time. While at first I was a little suspicious of this drop in class, I actually like this move for her. The purse for this race is $45K and if she gets claimed, then so be it. If she doesn’t get claimed and runs well, she’ll be eligible for some starter allowance races which could meet her at her current level. Even operating at less than her career best, she’s still consistently faster than her current opposition. The backup for me in this spot is going to be the Penn National invader, Stand By You (#5). She moves from Todd Beattie’s barn to Wayne Catalano’s barn. She has two solid races over this course and she’s been working well over this oval. Her recent form is a little less than what it would take to win this race, but perhaps with the change in human connections and scenery, she can regain some of her better form. 

Race 4:

The morning line favorite in this restricted maiden special weight race  is Run Jalen Run (#8). He ships back to Kentucky after finishing in the money in his last three sprint races at Oaklawn. He finds class relief, facing some smaller priced colts and geldings. He faced some tough company at Oaklawn, but the quality of his field that day didn’t match the depth of the fields he faced two and three starts ago. He’s consistent enough to use as a backup, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for the top pick. Orizzonte (#12) is a logical player in this field. He was sharp on debut in a similar kind of race at the Fair Grounds last month, finishing 4th, beaten less than three lengths. He draws outside in this overflow field while also adding Lasix. The dam has foaled a six-time graded stakes winner, who also has some solid indoor experience. Anchor Down (#1) is a second time starter that debuted at Turfway last month. He was away a bit slow, but he came with an eye-catching move on the turn. He shot through an opening at the top of the stretch, but was refusing to switch leads, which likely cost him second place. His won her first race on the dirt and his sire, Anchor Down, gets 13% winners in dirt sprints. If any of the three first time starters on the AE list get into this race, I’d be willing to use any or all of them to some capacity. Both Casa Limon (#14) and Toscano (#15) are based in Illinois, so with them being on the AE list, I’m not sure they’ll be participating in this spot. Talbingo (#13) just needs one defection to get in. He has a pair of nice local drills for Brian Lynch. Classic Empire gets 12% winners with first time starts sprinting on the dirt. 

Race 5:

The Pick-6, which is seeded with a $33K carryover, starts with this N2X allowance race for four year olds and up, going one mile on the turf. The All-Turf Pick 3, which paid over $56K yesterday, begins in this race as well. I liked Greek Order (#10) when he was entered in a tougher N2X allowance spot last week. Mott opted to scratch him from that spot, which was rained off the turf and contested on a sloppy main track. He brings him back in this race, and although he’s drawn a tougher post, I see this as a weaker field. While I don’t think he would mind a softer course, getting a firmer course here should be to his liking. His European efforts are decent and while his Class 3 Handicap win at Newbury in August was nice, his effort at Newmarket two starts back was very good. He didn’t have the best of breaks, which is not ideal in a 34 horse field. He navigated his way through a lot of traffic to get within a half length of the race winner that afternoon. He followed up that effort with a decent third place finish on boggy ground in a ten furlong stakes race. Irad Ortiz was scheduled to ride last week and he kept him commitment to ride back this week. He rode Dude N Colorado (#9) to a win in the Colonel Liam Stakes last year, so the fact that he’s keeping this mount tells me that he thinks this Kingman colt has some ability. Dude N Colorado could definitely be a pace factor in this race, so that is where I’ll back up, but I think the import is going to get the job done. 

Race 6:

Three year old fillies are sprinting six furlongs in this optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race. She’s Cool (#8) is the only runner in the field entered with the tag. Emery (#3) is the heavy 4-5 favorite on the morning line. She was a nice 5 ¾ length winner in the slop on debut at the Spa this summer. Her next logical start was the Frizette, where she ran into the next out Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner, Just F Y I. Cox has strong numbers off the layoff and this is likely to be her first start on a fast track. She’s worth using, but I don’t see her as a slam dunk. I was interested in Rhapsody (#6) in this race, going from turf to dirt in her first start for Jonathon Thomas. She was based at Woodbine where she ran four times on the turf. She broke her maiden on debut and was competitive in a pair of turf sprint stakes up North. She fired a 46:4 bullet work on this course back on April 5th, signaling to me that she’s fresh and ready to fire a nice race on the dirt course here in Kentucky. Frankie Dettori, who won the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last week, gets the call today. I’d also consider Calle Amada (#1) for Todd Pletcher. She was second behind a runaway winner in her debut at Saratoga. She went to Parx on PA Derby Day where she broke her maiden on a very sloppy course, while breaking from the rail. While it doesn’t look like a huge effort on paper, I do think that race was better than it looks in the form. She was in tight down the backside and she had another runner trying to sneak though inside of her. She was able to get off the rail and make a bid at the top of the stretch. She was struggling a bit to find her best stride in the mud, but she grabbed a hold of the course late when she accelerated to get the win. . 

Race 7:

They’re back on the turf here with a conditioned $130K allowance race for sprinters on the turf. We saw a 51-1 bomb win the version of this race for fillies and mares yesterday. There’s not much early pace on in this race, so I think both Outlaw Kid (#6) and Just Might (#11) could benefit from being forwardly placed in this race. Outlaw Kid is cross-entered in a stakes race at Laurel, so I’m not sure what direction that he’s leaning. George Weaver has some excellent numbers with turf sprinters and his effort at Belmont off a similar break last year was awesome. Just Might doesn’t tend to run her best races on this course, however, many of those races were hotly contested pace duels. I don’t see that happening with this field. He was very good in both grass races in New Orleans and I think he has a chance to break through on this oval for the first time. Oceanic (#10) could be pace compromised in this race, but if he’s able to weave through traffic, he could be very tough to deal with in this spot. He has a lot of close finishes against better fields. I’m willing to toss the synthetic effort from last time. On deeper tickets, Smokin’ Jay  (#12) is another Turfway shipper that has some life in this field. He ran some sharp races last year and could be in the mix on his best day.

Race 8:

Assuming this field stays intact, this N1X allowance race for older horses going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, should go down as one of the stronger ones around the country this year. Since the field is so deep, it’s really hard for me to consider taking 4-5 on Dreamlike (#3) making his first start of the year for Todd Pletcher. He showed a lot of promise early on in his career when narrowly losing twice in contested maiden allowance races. While still a  maiden, he lost in a three horse photo in the Wood Memorial last season. He broke his maiden at Saratoga, but a bad stumble kept him off the board at this level there at the end of the meet. He came back to fire a big race in the slop in the PA Derby and he followed that up with a credible effort in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He’s been working well and he reminds me of his sire, Gun Runner, who also was decent at the beginning of his career, but he really turned it on at the end of his three year old campaign and as a four year old. There’s a lot to like here, but he’s facing a deep field in his first start off the bench. There is also very little early speed signed on for this race. I think that gives a big advantage to Brigade Commander (#6), whose number was taken down at this level last month in New Orleans. He’s been sharp since transitioning to dirt racing. Pyrenees, who beat him two starts back, came back to easily beat a sharp N2X allowance field here last week. I think he’ll be forwardly placed in a race with dull first half mile. If he’s good enough, he should be there at the end. Cagliostro (#10) earned graded stakes placings last year when finishing in the money in both the Indiana Derby and the Smarty Jones Stakes. He ended his season finishing 5th, but beaten less than a length and a half in a wild finish in the Oklahoma Derby. Cherie DeVaux adds blinkers for his first start of the year. That may help him secure a decent early spot when breaking from the outside post in this race. He has fired fresh in the past and he looked to be a player with this group today. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes:

There’s at least one graded stakes race every Friday at this meet, and this 1 1/16 mile contest for fillies and mares drew a competitive field of seven. Raging Sea (#1) nearly won the Alcibiades in 2022 and she was a decent third despite a troubled trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies that year. She looked the old version of herself when clearing the N1X allowance condition on this oval last fall. She used that race to springboard her to a graded stakes victory in the Grade 3 Comely at Aqueduct in her last start. She ran her race in her first start off the layoff last year, she just wasn’t good enough. She improved throughout her truncated three year old campaign, so I expect the same kind of effort from her today as we saw from her back in the fall. Chad Brown is always dangerous with horses coming off the layoff, and he trains this Curlin filly who feels like she has a big shot in this one. Scylla (#3) feels like the main danger, making her fourth career start and her first at two turns. She’s a Tapit filly out of the champion mare Close Hatches. She was dominant in her first two starts, breaking her maiden on this oval and then putting on a show to clear the N1X condition in a one turn mile race at Churchill. She went to the sidelines and returned with a strong effort at the one turn mile at Gulfstream, where she lost for the first time in her career in a photo. She’s had a few sharp works at Payson Park prior to coming here to try stakes company for the first time. Mott trained her mom and now he’ll try to turn this one into a Grade 1 winner as well. She certainly looks the part, but while the pedigree suggests that two turns at this distance shouldn’t be an issue, she still has to prove that she can be as effective, if not more, at this kind of distance. 

Race 10: 

We’ll wrap the day up with the second division of the N2X allowance race back in Race 5. This heat feels like it’s significantly stronger than the 5th race, at least on paper. I think Brad Cox’s Wonderful Justice (#3) has a pair of strong races at this condition in New Orleans. I think the one mile distance suits him very well and I see him as the one they’re going to have to hold off in the stretch. Bellini (#1) has the look of a horse that has just figured some things out. There were a few rough efforts last spring at Belmont. This gelding went off form for a little while, but after watching his last few starts, I think he is ready to complete the rebound after running a career top figure in his last race. Northern Invader (#12) is the morning line favorite after just missing in the Woodchopper a few weeks ago. DeVaux must have liked his last few races, as she comes back to this $40K starter level. Look for another strong effort from this colt in this race as well. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 22/88 (25.0%), $146.76, $1.68 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.