Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/20/24 – By Eric Solomon

As we move into the final Saturday of the meet, there are a pair of graded stakes races that are supporting this card. The Grade 2 Visitlex Elkhorn is the 8th race, while the Grade 3 Ben Ali on the dirt is the ninth. First post on this busy Saturday afternoon is  1:00 (ET)

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

I’m going to try to beat the morning line favorite in the opener, which is a $30K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. I’m not sure if six furlongs is going to be the best surface and distance for Lady Aberdeen (#2) so I’m looking for better priced alternatives. Despite having several chances, Put the Crazy Away (#1) is an interesting runner in this spot. She was claimed by Tim Girten after a dull effort in a two turn race at this level at Turfway. She ran very very three back at Turfway and had another strong effort at Aqueduct on dirt in the fall. She should be forwardly placed and when she’s on her game, she can be tough to deal with. I think the barn, surface, and distance change are all positives for her in this spot. She’s Always Rosie (#7) is another runner switching surfaces after three straight efforts on the Tapeta at Turfway to launch her career. Despite going winless at this meet so far, William Morey wins a lot of races each year, and he does well with horses moving from synthetic to dirt. Tapiture gets 16% winners from his runners that sprint on the dirt, so I think this one is live as well. Gift Gorgeous (#3) caught a very sloppy course when she made her local debut. She’s running back against a softer field while also likely getting a fast track for the first time in her young career. I could see her moving forward at a decent number in her third start off the layoff. 

Race 2:

This is a wide open maiden special weight race for three year old fillies, restricted to horses that either sold or RNA for $50K at the most recent auction. There’s not much jumping off the page with the firsters in this race, so I’m leaning to some of the lightly raced horses. Classy’n Connected (#6), Winkaching (#11), and Zen Moment (#12), were second, third, and fourth, respectively, in a race at this condition at Turfway last month. Classy’n Connected just missed in her 7th career start. Her prior dirt form wasn’t great, so I’m not sure how high her ceiling is. Both Winkaching and Zen Moment were making their first career starts that day, so I see both as candidates to improve enough to be threats with this field. I think Zen Moment has the best speed of that group and she makes the most sense to me at longer odds. Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Eric Reed, has good numbers with horses in their second career starts and he’s won 23% of the time when partnering with Charlie Oliveros. This duo had a second time starter in a race for the boys at this condition that was good enough to win, but was nailed in the last few strides at the wire. Winkaching didn’t show a ton of early foot, but he ran on well from the back of the pack to get into third place. While Romans’ numbers aren’t as sharp with second time starters, both of these fillies feel like they can have success on the dirt. Ice Water (#1) draws the rail after running well in a four horse race at this condition in her last start at Turfway. She improved from start one to two, but she’s going to be facing more horses today. Tyler Gaffalione picking the mount is an upgrade for her third career try. On deeper tickets, Princess Is Olivia (#8) drops back into this level after running with open maiden special weight types in her last several starts. She was trending up at Oaklawn, but she faltered when going two turns two starts ago. She was second best in her last start  at this level when trying the synthetic for the first time at Turfway. She has a lot of speed and must avoid a hard duel with Zen Moment on the outside. However, I do think she makes some sense while coming back to Kentucky. 

Race 3:

I think Irad Ortiz is going to try to take it to this compact field from the jump in this optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race. David Jacobsen is running three horses here today, coming down from their home base in New York. I think Iridescent (#6) has the best early speed in this race and is well rested after narrowly losing a race at this level on a slow and tiring track at Aqueduct. He was excellent when making the lead three starts back with starter allowance company. He’s one of two runners in for a tag, which doesn’t bother me a ton seeing Jacobsen does an excellent job in the claiming game. The main threat will be the heavy 4-5 morning line favorite, Mr. Skylight (#4). He’s done nothing wrong in two career tries, losing to a next out winner on debut and then grinding out a hard fought victory in his last start. He’s had a few weeks to adjust to Kentucky life after shipping north from his winter base in Florida. Riley Mott had a great meet at Gulfstream and has one winner from five starters thus far at this meet. He could be sitting on a bigger race, but I do think 4-5 is a little light for a horse that has yet to face winners. 

Race 4:

I like Cloudwalker (#3) a lot in this N1X allowance race that feels like it’s loaded with early speed. This More Than Ready filly took some money on debut on this course back in the fall, when she scampered home to win by three widening lengths. She’s been on the sidelines since, but she’s been working well of late for Brendan Walsh down at Palm Meadows. This barn has a good track record with horses coming off layoffs, At this meet last spring, Walsh sent out four runners off layoffs of 180 days or more and three of them came back as winners. His two winners at this meet so far were making their first start off layoffs of 123 and 165 days. While she’s facing winners and older horses for the first time, I see this filly being able to sit off an aggressive early pace duel and come flying home late once again. If she can run like she did on debut, she may be stakes bound sooner than later. She’s one of my stronger opinions on the card. Candy Bar (#7) is the backup play for me in this race. I was looking for a horse with more speed than the top pick, but was also not a dedicated front runner. I think she fits that bill while cutting back to a sprint after a decent effort in a two turn contest in her last start. She’s gradually improving and could be a factor in this spot. 

Race 5:

Open $32K claimers will travel 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt in the last leg of the Early Pick-5 and the first leg of the Pick-6. I’m against the morning line favorite, Systemic Change (#6) for Chad Brown. He’s a grinding type that hasn’t been very good since clearing the N2X condition at Monmouth this summer. I’d rather not pay a hefty tax on this one just because of his human connections. Saqeel (#1) has not been as sharp as he was back in the summer and fall, however, he has faced tough fields. He lost to Money Supply twice, and that one went on to win a graded stakes race after beating this one in January. He lost to Huge Bigly last time out who was also a next out winner. He’s making his second start for Maker and his second start off a brief layoff. I think the rail post benefits him for the race he wants to run. If he’s going to get close to his previous form, this would likely be the race to do it.  Direct Line (#5) also feels live in this spot. He’s making his second start off the layoff while shipping in from Southern California for Peter Eurton. He’s versatile enough to win on the front end or to come from off the pace. He’s been consistently running at the two turn mile distance, but I think he can have success stretching out to nine furlongs. Fromanothamutha (#8) is dropping in for a tag for the first time in a while for Raymond Handal. He’s been knocking on the door in N1X allowance company in New York and New Orleans for the last several starts, but hasn’t been able to seal the deal. He’s been consistently running lower 80’s Beyer Figures, which should get him close if he’s able to do that again. 

Race 6:

This N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf has quite the international flare. Four of the twelve runners in the body of this field last raced in another country and a fifth horse is two races removed from running the first eleven races in her career overseas. I landed on American Retro (#7), looking to go back to back. She cleared the N1X level at Gulfstream in her last start, which was also her first two turn turf test. She was making her first start since August that day and she came charging hard down the stretch to get her neck on the wire first. I see there being upside potential for this four year old American Pharoah filly. Nine days ago, I made a case for Woohoo Jackie Blue (#3), who faded late in an off the turf race here at this condition. She has some nice efforts on the turf in the past and she’s a mare that often shows up to run her best race. This is a class test, but I do think she’s capable of acting it. Sacred Wish (#10) is the morning line favorite while making her first start finishing second in a Grade 3 race at the Big A. She ran three strong races since moving to the turf. While I like her, I don’t love the price. She’s one that I’ll covering with. While I’m not sure this is the best distance for Freydis The Red (#1), drawing the rail for Ken McPeek. She was a little flat when making his seasonal debut at the Fair Grounds in the Tom Benson Memorial. When things are clicking, she’ll come flying down the stretch in the late stages of this one. She’s worth covering in here as well. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a maiden special weight race for three year old fillies going seven furlongs and 184 feet on the Beard Course in this race. I think some of the shorter prices on the morning line are vulnerable in this spot.  I liked the first two races from Alicit Intention (#5) at Oaklawn. She broke a bit slow in her debut and moved well late to get into third. She got out of the gate better, but still found herself at the back of the pack in her second try. She’s been beaten by a pair of nice fillies. Lady Moscato came back to clear the N1X condition last weekend at Oaklawn and Popperina was a winner here earlier this week. Robert Medina’s horses tend to improve with more starts and he’ll put blinkers on today, likely trying to put her in play sooner. Illusion (#1) has a look from her rail post in this race. She debuted on the Tapeta track at Turfway in her last start. She split the field, finishing 6th of 11 when breaking from the far outside post. Blinkers go on and she gets a notable rider upgrade for her second career try. This barn has great numbers with second starters and she figures to be tough in this spot. On deeper tickets, Justify Perfection (#2) has the look of a live longshot in her third career race. She was beaten by double digit lengths in a fast race for that maiden special weight condition at the Fair Grounds. She tried a two turn race on the turf there last month and was flat. She’ll try this longer sprint race for the first time, which figures to suit her well. I’ll also cover with She’ s Wicked Smart (#4). She’s going to take money because she was a decent third behind Just F Y  in her first and only start at the Spa. This barn does good things with horses coming off the layoff, so she’s definitely playable. I just think the number is going to be shorter than I am comfortable playing her at with this group.

Race 8, The Grade 2 Visitlex Elkhorn Stakes:

While I’d like to try to build a case against Bold Act (#4) in this Grade 2 race, I’m having trouble doing so. He was much the best despite winning the Grade 3 Sycamore on this course two starts ago. He was covered up and crying out for room as they turned for home. Jaime Spencer gave him a brilliant ride, as he had to slow his momentum, while shifting off the rail and out to the four or five path. Once he had the opening, he had the turn of foot and the energy to accelerate once again and get up to win by ¾ of a length, while drawing away from the pack just past the wire. He was strong when winning a Group 2 race at this distance in Dubai at the beginning of March. Appleby ran Naval Power against his high profile stablemate, Master of the Seas, in the Makers Mark Mile last week. Naval Power was shipping in after a strong effort at Meydan as well. Oftentimes, we see North American horses struggle in their first race after starting in Dubai, however, I thought that horse ran very well to be second to a superior race horse. I’m not concerned with Bold Act shipping back here for a barn that has been frequenting the United States on a more regular basis. I think he’s just better than the opposition in this race. Dynadrive (#5) would be a horse that I’m looking at underneath and as a potential backup. He was a little flat at Gulfstream when finishing 7th in the Mac Diarmida Stakes. He was excellent when winning the John B. Connally Stakes at Sam Houston two starts ago. He’s run credible races in each start since being claimed by Maker. He might be overlooked after his dull effort last month, but I do think he can sneak into the lower end of the vertical exotics if he brings his A game. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes:

The co-featured stakes race on the card is for older horses running 1 3/16 miles on the main track. Turfway invaders have been strong here all meet long, so I’m going to roll the dice and make Surly Furious (#2) the top pick for Glenn Wisner and Frankie Dettori. He was awesome two starts back in the Dust Commander Stakes there. He may have bounced a bit when finishing 6th in a highly competitive Kentucky Cup Classic last out. His dirt form isn’t great, as he is winless in ten starts on traditional dirt. However, he’s in much better overall form now than he was when he was struggling in those main track efforts. The clincher for me was his effort at Mountaineer in the West Virginia Governor’s Cup Stakes on the West Virginia Derby undercard. He battled hard and nearly pulled off the 8-1 upset when running very well in that Grade 3 contest. Assuming this field stays intact, I’m going to need to get at least his 10-1 morning line price to be comfortable using him on top from an overall value perspective. However, I do think that’s about the number he’ll be at and I have enough wonderings with the shorter prices to take that chance with him. Kingsbarns (#4) is the one in this race that could be any kind. He was a gate to wire winner of the Louisiana Derby last year before faltering in the Kentucky Derby. He came back to run in the Pegasus at Monmouth, which was a disappointing effort, despite just missing the victory in that race. I did like his return to the races last out at Gulfstream, scoring a seven furlong allowance race. I liked seeing him show that versatility of being able to win in different ways. He was an $800K purchase and as a horse that was sired by Uncle Mo out of a Tapit mare, the stamina should be there. I’ll back up with War Campaign (#9), who is coming into this race in solid form. He was second in the Essex Stakes at Oaklawn last out and prior to that he won the Tinsel Stakes there in December. He’s probably not quite good enough to finish in the money in the Oaklawn Handicap, which is also being run this afternoon. His local races have been a mixed bag, but his last race here on a wet track was one of his best. My concern with him is that he seems to run his best races in the mud and that’s not a likely scenario for today. 

Race 10: 

The Saturday nightcap is the second division of the N1X turf sprint for fillies and mares. The first division went off as the 4th race this afternoon. There’s not nearly as much early speed signed on for this race as there is on paper for the earlier heat. All I Want Is You (#11) makes her second start off the layoff for Ignacio Correas. She ran two decent races on this course in 2023, finishing off the board, but running decent races both times. She broke her maiden last summer at Colonial and she looked good at Churchill three starts back. When she faced a field at this level in October, she didn’t get the best trip, as she was stuck waiting in behind runners, before being forced to swing out widest of all. She covered a lot of ground than Proud Mary (#2), who is favored today, in that race. Correas gave her a race at Turfway, where she struggled to run her best on that surface. His horse do very well in their second starts off the layoff, so that looks like a deliberate spot to set her up for this race. Proud Mary has two strong efforts at this distance on turf as a three year old. She’s been on the sidelines since finishing 6th at this level at Turfway in December. I didn’t love seeing her concede the lead in her last local race, losing her rail position and never really getting back into the race. She’s drawn inward again so we’ll see how aggressive Frankie Dettori is or isn’t. Empires Princess (#4) is a longer priced runner that feels like she could be intriguing in this spot. She finally got back on the grass at the Fair Grounds in her last start after getting rained off the lawn in her three prior starts. She stepped up and ran a career top on the surface switch, closing from off the pace to get into third. Her two turf races are decent, and while she’ll need to move forward to beat this group, she’s a live longshot shipping North. On deeper tickets, Makeup (#13) is one to consider if she’s running. She led  every step of the way on this course when making her debut back in October. She’s been on the sidelines since and is on the outside looking in while trying to face winners for the first time. She’ll add more speed to the body of the field if she runs, and I do think she’ll have to be sent from her outside stall. That might not be the worst thing though. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 25/98 (25.5%), $171.86, $1.75 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.