Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, 10/2/26 – By Eric Solomon

The fall Keeneland Meet is front loaded with high quality stakes races, designed to be important prep races for the Breeders’ Cup at the end of month right here in Lexington. The winners of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year used the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinter and the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity as their final prep race. The Opening Day card offers three “Win and You’re In” Races for the biggest weekend of racing in Thoroughbred Racing. First post for the first card of the meet is 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The meet begins with a $30K N3L starter allowance race for fillies and mares going seven furlongs. Let’s try to start things off with a bang. Mom’s Cheesecake (#10) makes her second start off the layoff in this spot. She is trained by Lacy Pierce, who has yet to train a winner from her 34 starters in 2026. However, this is a filly that has never run a bad race on this course. She has three third place finishes and a win here in four career tries. Her form was tailing off a bit after a long campaign that went from her debut in May of 2024 to May of 2026 without any real break. She was given the summer off and came back in a race at this level at Churchill when going six furlongs. She likely needed that race, so I can see her taking a small step forward here. While I don’t think she has the highest ceiling in the field, I do think her floor is higher than most. She was 11-1 in her last start and should be at least that number at post time in this race today (20-1 ML), which feels like solid value for me. I think this could be a great spot for Queen of Queens (#8) to score in her second start off the layoff. She was not a factor when we saw her in a restricted maiden special weight race here last fall. However, she progressed nicely into the winter. Joe Sharp claimed her for $30K on the day when she broke her maiden over at Churchill. She showed significant improvement in her last two starts of 2025 before going to the sidelines. She came back in a starter allowance race on the turf at Kentucky Downs last month and didn’t run poorly in her first start in over nine months. She’s bred to be better on the dirt, so I can see her moving forward in this race where she is facing a lot of horses that have static form. Jose Ortiz is riding better than anyone in the country at the moment and he’ll get the assignment aboard this filly for the third consecutive time. Hollybygolly (#4) is also worth considering as a backup in this race. Prior to her 5th place finish in that same race at Churchill last month, she only competed on a traditional dirt course one other time, and that came in Ashland here back in the spring where she was a huge longshot. She didn’t run a step that day nor did she in her next start in a smaller stakes race on the lawn in Indiana. While it took her a little time to find her best stride in her last start, she was more competitive than she was in the spring. She was stakes placed in the winner on the Tapeta, so there is some quality here. 

Race 2:

The second race of the afternoon is a $16K claiming contest for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. Jose Ortiz could be in great position to sweep the early double as he gets the call on the morning line favorite, National Eclipse (#1) in this race. Eddie Kenneally claimed this one at the end of April and then brought him back in a open claiming race at Churchill in June where he was the winner. Steve Asmussen claimed him out of that spot and brought him back in September at Churchill where he was moving well, despite a very wide journey. Kenneally re-claimed him out of that race and gets him in another spot where he should have every chance to score. I think he stands out in this field. The backup is the class dropper, Mena (#4), who is trying to right the ship after some subpar efforts recently with better. He was claimed for $62,500 back in November. Since then, he’s scraped and clawed to earn $28K on the track this year for Ron Moquett. His form has tailed off, so there’s a degree in caution when taking him at a shorter price in this spot. However, the softer competition could also help him wake up. 

Race 3:

There are plenty of ways to go in this N2L allowance race for two year old fillies going six furlongs over the main track. I thought the debut score from Master Queen (#4) at Colonial Downs was very impressive. She stalked the pace and went to the front and opened at will throughout the stretch run. While that might not have been the best field, the third place finisher came back to score in her subsequent start and the runner-up just missed in her most recent try. She was 20-1 in that race, so the expectations weren’t particularly high. They took a swing in a lucrative stakes race on the turf at Kentucky Downs in her last start, but that didn’t go well. Carlos Munoz gives the mount to Luis Fuenmayor, who has struggled mightily since losing the bug and becoming a journeyman. While it’s been a tough go, this filly was one of his seven winners this year, and I respect the connections giving him a shot on a huge stage. Chickies Perch (#5) was a debut winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. She’s a daughter of Into Mischief who cost her connections $500K at the OBS Sale in March of 2025. She was scheduled to race at Churchill, but she was unable to draw in off the AE list. Instead of waiting for another local race, Weaver opted to send her out of state to run for significantly less money. That tells me that he had every intention of running this filly at this meet. She’s the second foal to race from the stakes winning mare, Dawn the Destroyer. She ended her career by finishing third in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. The heavy favorite is Virabhadrasana (#7), who was a maiden winner on the Travers Day card at the Spa last time out. Two fillies from that race have already come back to break their maidens at Churchill and Belmont, so while the final time might not have been the swiftest, there was some clear quality in that field. I do like the conservative approach for this daughter of Jackie’s Warrior, but I also don’t love that she’s even money on the morning line. She’s worth using, but I want coverage in this race. Irad Ortiz has been targeting this day to get back in the saddle after an injury and he’s named to ride for Kinnon LaRose. 

Race 4:

I see this maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares as one of the races on this card that could produce a big number. I’m interested in Cartier Gold (#3) on top in this race for John Servis and Main Line Racing Stable. This three year old filly debuted in a maiden special weight race last year on the Tapeta at Turfway, where she finished a respectable second place when going one mile. She’s been sidelined since then and has been working well at Turfway for her return to the races. John Servis doesn’t run a horse here at Keeneland unless he thinks that horse belongs. She’s the first foal to race from a dam that didn’t do much on the track. However, she was well bred, being sired by Nyquist out of the stakes winning mare, Livi McKenzie. I think this filly fits well in this field that is not particularly a strong one for the condition here at Keeneland. Phil D’Amato sends out Touch of an Angel (#6) who is another horse that could be flying under the radar in this race. She debuted last fall at Churchill where she broke slowly in a productive maiden race that was won by a future Grade 3 winner, A Fine Chardonnay. She made her second career start here, but something clearly went amiss as she was sidelined for almost 11 months after her 7th place finish at this level. She came back in a turf race at Kentucky Downs where she broke last, but was rolling late. She finished third in that spot, beaten only a length. While her dam was better on the grass, I still believe that she is bred to be better on the dirt. When making that assumption, it does appear that she has made some growth since last year, which would make her eligible to move forward in this race today. Rules and Regs (#7) will be the backup for me in this spot. This is another Kentucky Downs shipper that is moving to the dirt. However, this will be her first start on the dirt in her 5th career start. I don’t typically gravitate towards moves like this, but I do trust Ian Wilkes. She has been knocking on the door in her turf tries. The dam did all of her work on the turf overseas, but Tiz the Law, her sire, does get 18% winners in dirt sprint races. 

Race 5:

The first turf race of the meet is a 5 ½  furlong allowance race for three year old fillies that have not a graded stakes contest. I’ll use a pair of fillies that are familar with each other. I’ll make Pillar of Beauty (#8) the top pick in this race. She’s one of two horses that Bill Mott is scheduled to send out here. She found her best stride at Saratoga this summer, beating older fillies and mares at this distance in a loaded allowance race on Belmont Week and then running a strong race at one mile in the Wild Applause Stakes. She went into the gate as the favorite in the Lucky Lantern Stakes at Kentucky Downs in her last start, but she never looked comfortable on that course, finishing off the board while tossing a clunker of an effort. I’m willing to forgive dull efforts on that course and I think the cutback to this distance will suit her nicely. 8-1 (ML) feels more than fair to me. Cadenza (#11) got the better of the top pick when they met in the spring in a six furlong dash in the Take the A Train Stakes at Aqueduct. She ran well in some graded stakes races and was good enough to score over a yielding course in the Galway Stakes two starts back. She’s another one that didn’t run her best race at Kentucky Downs, but she fits if she can rebound on a more traditional American turf course. On deeper tickets, I’ll use the California invader, Light Won Up (#10) for Doug O’Neill. She was 4th in the Grade 3 Limestone Stakes here back in April. She’s been knocking on the door in graded stakes company and she ran well in the Music City Stakes in her latest try. She’ll get Lasix for the first time as she slides out of stakes company while searching for a bit of class relief. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 starts with a maiden special weight race for two year olds going six furlongs on the dirt. It seems like every year, Cox has a lot of these maidens at Keeneland that are coming off strong first starts, and it feels like not many of these horses miss. National Forest (#8) is that horse today. Over the last few years, there have been some very salty maiden races at Ellis that have produced multiple stakes winning horses. The 8/21 maiden race that this colt is coming out of might be that kind of race from their 2026 meet. Jokester is looking for his next start and could be eyeing up a start in the Bowmans Mill Stakes at the end of the meet here. Both Staunch and Okarito came back to win maiden special weight races at the end of the recently concluded September Meet at Churchill. I don’t think the other three runners with experience are in the same class as he is and there’s not a ton jumping off with the six firsters in this race. Most of my Pick-5 action is going to go through him in this race. The two first timers that interest me the most are Knicks Diamonds (#9) and Saltwater Soul (#4). Both should be fair prices in this race and both could add some value to the vertical exotics. Knicks Diamonds is a Knicks Go first time starter who has some speedy drills under his belt in preparation for his debut. Matt Sims isn’t known for having his horses fully loaded for their first time out, however there are things to like. The dam’s other foals haven’t done much at first asking, but their sires were more inclined to produce two turn horses on the turf. Knicks Go is winning with 10% of his debut runners. Saltwater Soul is the first foal to race from a precocious mare that was a debut winner. The works are solid and Upstart is a solid debut starter, winning with 14% of his firsters in dirt sprint races. Riley Mott seems to have been targeting this meet for his debut. 

Race 7, The Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes:

The first “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup is this historic, six furlong sprint race, which drew a solid field of 11. The last Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner to win this race in the same year as the Breeders’ Cup was Runhappy back in 2015. Work All Week, also completed that feat the year before that. Whitmore was the winner of this race in 2017 and he would go on to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint a few years later. His trainer, Ron Moquett, has another gelding that is giving off similar vibes in this race today. Hymn (#8) is the pick for me this afternoon, as he looks to pick up where he left off after winning the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga in his last start. Like Whitmore, he dabbled in some two turn races as a three year old, but he’s found his niche in sprint races this year. Moquett has brought him along patiently and he’s been rewarded by this gelding, who has won four of his last five races. His only loss in that span of time came by the hands of Built, who is better than most of these on his best day. Rafael Bejarano is 3-3 when riding this horse in one turn races. I like his chances here today. Verifire (#4) is the up and coming sprinter in this field, racing for Brad Cox. He’s been very good in six of seven career starts, with his only real blemish coming in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens last summer where something was clearly amiss. He has three wins in four starts at this distance and he’s a two-time stakes winner at seven furlongs. Resolute Racing paid $1,000,000 for him back in 2024 and they’ve allowed Cox to patiently develop him this season after the Jerkens debacle. He has the highest ceiling in this field. On deeper tickets, I’m inclined to toss in Mad House (#1), assuming that the price is right. He’s starting off 10-1, and that’s probably the minimum number I’d need to have him if I play him at all. I hate the rail draw for him in this race, however, if speed from the rail is good in the earlier races, I see no reason why Sonny Leon won’t have him on the engine from the jump. The flip side of that coin is that two of his worst efforts came in races where he drew the rail and both of those contests had smaller fields than he’s dealing with today.  I do think he is the quickest early on in this race, so if he can clear, he could be dangerous. 

Race 8, The Grade 2 Jessamine Presented by Keeneland Sales:

While this might not be the strongest edition of this Grade 2 contest for two year old fillies, this 12 horse affair might be one of the best betting races on the card. I don’t think any outcome of this race would be shocking. I think there’s value to be had with Pros and Cons (#1) who was the post time favorite in the PG Johnson Stakes at Saratoga in her last start. Things didn’t really go her way in that race, but there are two instances that I could point to as excuses for a young horse. She slammed the gate hard when she broke, which likely cost her some valuable early position when facing a compact field .There was absolutely no early pace happening in that race. Jose Ortiz made an early move, but then her rival countered and forced her to go three wide all the way around the final turn. Her maiden score was solid so I do think there is more talent there than what was on display in her last try. Elegante Miz (#11) is one of three runners in this field sired by the champion turf sprinter, Golden Pal. She broke her maiden at five furlongs on debut at Gulfstream when racing on the Tapeta. She ran twice at the Kentucky Downs meet, putting in a solid effort in both starts when going one turn on that unique course. Patrick Biancone brought her back to her base at Palm Meadows after those races and she’s had two credible drills since. She might be the daughter of Golden Pal that is best suited to get the distance. Brad Cox sends out Lucky Bernadine (#8) after a strong maiden score at Kentucky Downs in her latest try. She debuted in July at Ellis where she broke a beat slow and was near the back of the pack when going into the first turn. She steadily advanced down the backstretch and came with an early bid to try to clear and save some ground, however, she wound up getting caught wide for the duration of the second turn. She did look beat, but was able to muster up some type of re-rally to get herself into 5th. She was much more professional in her next start and was able to win with relative ease. Prat sticks around for her third career try and her first against winners. She makes sense as a horse to move forward in this one. There are definitely some others to consider, but these are the top three that interest me the most in this contest are going to be well-represented on the A line for me. 

Race 9, The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades:

This Grade 1 contest produced the winner of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies race when Immersive scored here before taking her talents to Del Mar. Last year, we saw Tommy Jo get the better of Percy’s Bar in this race. Percy’s Bar went on to be third in the Breeders’ Cup and she would go on to win the Ashland here in the spring. This year, there’s a solid eight horse field with some very promising fillies. I really liked what I’ve seen from Emphatic (#1) in her first two starts. No one has come close to challenging this Nyquist filly in her first two starts. She handled her business in a light maiden allowance race at Colonial. Brendan Walsh sent her to the Jersey Shore where she was favored in the Sorority Stakes, which is a two-turn, one mile race on the dirt at Monmouth. She was five wide early and then three wide for the better part of the first turn. Edwin Gonzalez pushed the button a little early on her in order to clear off and save some ground going into the second turn .She accelerated at will and left no doubt that she was the best filly in that contest. The water gets deeper here, but I like her post for this race and I believe in this race where the stretch is shortened, she’ll have every chance to keep the favorite at bay. Summer Starlet (#5) looks like she’s the real deal for Steve Asmussen. She was an excellent debut winner at Saratoga in August and she came back to score even more impressively in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes last month. There’s no reason to think that this filly can’t handle the two turn distance, but she is being asked to do so for the first time. Asmussen’s horses have not been great at Keeneland over the last several years, so that is something to at least keep in mind with this filly, who is likely to be even money or less when the gates pop open. The other big name in this race is Forever Carina (#6) for Chad Brown. She’s a full sister to the 2025 Kentucky Oaks winner, Always a Runner. She debuted in a sprint, which is probably not what she wants to do. She was far back early on, but the pace fast in front of her set up her closing kick. In spite of the pace meltdown, she made up a ton of ground and passed a lot of horses to score rather easily as the favorite that day. She feels like a horse that is going to thrive at two turns. However, the other two fillies might be slightly farther ahead in their development at this stage of the game. If she’s the second choice at post time, I think that means there should be significant value with the top pick. 

Race 10: 

We’ll close out Opening Day with a N1X allowance race going 1 3/16 miles over the turf course. There’s not a lot of speed signed on for this race, which may set the table for Lazlo (#9) to finally clear this condition for Make Maker. He’s been forwardly placed when going longer distances of later, but he;s quick enough to be on or near the lead with this group. Giving Flavien Prat a tactical edge is always dangerous. When you draw a line through his dull effort over a softer course when going 1 3.8 miles at Churchill three back, he has been knocking on the door against similar types. Graham Motion sends Kravitz (#8) here from his Fair Hill base. His efforts when he’s receiving lasix are simply better than he’s not. He was flat last out when he wasn’t eligible to have it prior to the Old Dominion Derby at Keeneland. However, he was much sharper in an 11 furlong allowance race at the Spa two back and he ran a solid third in a similar race at this distance here in the spring. On deeper tickets, I’ll take a runner moving up in class. Michael’s Cove (#6) seems to be the kind of horse that always shows up on the track. He’s been sharp in starter allowance company at Ellis, scoring in his most recent try. He’s shown the ability to run on any surface, but his ;last two starts, which were his first two on the lawn, were two of his best. 

2026 Spring Meet Final Statistics: 

Top Pick Winners: 35/139 (25.2%), $274.36, $1.97 ROI 

2025 Fall Meet Final Statistics: 

Top Pick Winners: 35/157 (22.3%), $329.10, $2.10 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.