Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, 10/24/25 – By Eric Solomon

Two stakes races are on the docket for the penultimate day of racing at Keeneland for 2025. Two year old fillies will sprint  six furlongs in the Dean Dorton Myrtlewood Stakes which is the 6th race. In the 9th race, some nice three year old fillies will go one mile in the Grade 2 Bank of America Valley View Stakes. First post for the final Friday card is set  for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the day with a nine horse field in this $50K claiming race for three year olds going 6 ½ furlongs. I’m concerned about taking a short price on the morning line favorite, On the Level (#7) in this race. He has two starts in maiden special weight company, scoring impressively last out at Delaware. He’s eligible for the first level allowance condition, and while this race carries a larger purse than most of the allowance races in the Mid-Atlantic region, I’m not crazy about seeing him on sale for $25K less than his purchase price after a win in a protected spot. I think Shan (#1) makes a lot of sense in this race, assuming he can rebound from a dull effort against a much stronger field in his last start. He was very sharp this summer, including two second place finishes at this level at Churchill. There is a decent amount of speed signed on for this contest and many of those runners who have faded at six furlongs, are now going a little farther. Between the distance and the pace scenario, I think he represents very good value here, especially if he’s close to his 8-1 morning line figure. Ravens Dream (#3) continues to progress in the right direction for Steve Asmussen. After some dull Keeneland meets in the last few seasons, Asmussen is in contention for the training title here this fall. He had five winners here last week, some of which came through at  uncharacteristically long odds. Those winners paid $57.32, $60.36, $10.10, $31.40, and $19.94. While in years past, it was very easy to fade his runners, the public hasn’t caught up to the fact that he’s bringing a better group of horses to Lexington this fall than what he’s brought here over the last few years. This colt is getting some class relief after chasing a decent field two weeks ago on this course in starter allowance company. He’s been consistently facing older foes in all five starts this year, so getting to face straight three year olds could be a plus. The pace scenario for him is not great, but I like the direction that this three year is headed in. The form for Innova (#2) is a bit up and down, but if the best version of this Frosted gelding shows up, he’s going to be right in the mix today. He’s at his best when he’s on the lead, and there’s a chance that Luis Saez might just throw down the gauntlet at the start today. He probably doesn’t want to lose the rail position and with Shan being the only horse breaking inside of him, he shouldn’t have to worry about someone trying to take that spot on his left side. If he can shake loose early, he could be tough to catch.  

Race 2:

The Early Pick-4 wager begins with a $20K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going seven furlongs on the main track. 16 are entered in this race, but only a maximum of 12 horses will start. At this level there are some warts that you’ll have to look past, and I’m willing to do that with Tiz My Hero (#11), making his first start off the claim for Rohan Crichton. I don’t love the claim and drop off the layoff, but Crichton is known for having his horses ready to fire when coming off the bench. His last two workouts on the training track at Churchill were solid. He was sharp at this level and distance two back at Churchill so I think he can contend with this field today. Open Court (#9) debuted at this level at Churchill last month. He was slow to break, but was gradually working his way into a good rail spot. A rival came in and nearly slammed him into the rail, forcing him to take up sharply, effectively ending his day against a decent field for this level. He was kept in the clear, going wide on the turn and he finished with enough interest to make me think that he can improve in his second try today. He’s starting at 20-1 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at odds of 30-1 or higher when the gates open. He’s not the worst longshot stab you could take. The Chalk (#4) is taking a deep drop in class down to this level after a 6th place finish with $75K maiden claimers last month. While showing some life with $100K maiden claimers at Churchill in the beginning of the summer, his last three races simply weren’t competitive. This drop is probably closer to where he belongs. 

Race 3:

This is an optional $125K claiming/N2X allowance race that is exclusively for three year olds going nine furlongs on the main track. There’s an interesting mix of horses that were auditioning for the Triple Crown races and some up and coming runners that could be stakes bound in the near future. I think So Sandy (#7) is going to be very tough in this race. Lael Stables invested over $500K when purchasing this Omaha Beach colt in 2023. He was looking like a bit of a bust in his first four starts, but Cherie DeVaux remained patient and gave him some more time to grow up. Since coming back in the spring in Indiana, he has four strong races in a row, including a near miss to Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick in the Curlin Stakes two starts ago. DeVaux entered him in the Grade 1 PA Derby, and he ran well despite going off at long odds in that race. He drew the rail in that 10 horse field and Kendrick Carmouche tried to put him on the lead in a race that had a lot of early pace. He battled hard, but when Baeza came with his bold bid, he backed out, finishing 4th, beaten six lengths in that race. I think he’ll get a nice stalking trip right behind Classicist (#4), and I expect his class to prevail. Classicist is the backup for me in this spot. He started twice for Pletcher in one turn races as a two year old and finished third in both. He was sidelined for about 10 months before resurfacing at Saratoga in a maiden special weight race at this distance. He handled his business with a professional front-running victory in that spot and he followed up that effort by clearing the N1X condition at Belmont at the Big A in the same fashion. He beat a nice field with some older runners in New York that day, holding off the 3rd place finisher in the 2024 Louisiana Derby, Tuscan Gold. He’s a stubborn horse to pass and I do think he’ll be battling every step of the way in this one. 

Race 4:

Two year olds will go six furlongs in this $150K maiden claiming race. These races can be tough to make heads or tails out of. Burnham Square, who was the winner of the Toyota Blue Grass  this year, debuted in this same race last fall, so there are still horses that are well-meant in these spots. After rolling with two of those nice Asmussen winners last week, I’m going to try to keep that train rolling with Magamak (#9) as the top pick in this race. The dam’s other foal to make it to the races, was a winner on debut. His sire, Cairo Prince, gets 10% winners from horses that debut in dirt sprint races. He’s been working steadily for his debut at his home base in Indiana. Asmussen doesn’t have great numbers with two year old first time starters debuting in maiden claiming races, but he also doesn’t debut many of them in these races. He’s debuted 706 first time starters in the last five years, but only 40 of those runners debuted for a tag. He’s 0-2 with his debuting runners here, but this one feels a little different than those two. This colt is a home bred that likely could have debuted in a maiden special weight race at a lesser circuit. With a purse of $78K for this race, it makes a ton of financial sense to try this colt at this level. A debut win and a claim would be a great score for the connections, but a debut win or a claim would also be good news and both maneuvers would be profitable enterprises. If none of those options come to fruition, he leaves Kentucky to compete on a lesser circuit for the same connections. Chicanery (#8) is the experienced runner that I think could move forward in this spot. I’ll always explore a Bret Calhoun second time starter because even when they don’t win, his horses tend to take a big step forward from start one to start two. This one broke well on debut at this level, but faded to 6th, beaten less than four lengths last month. He was battling the whole way around the track. We’ll see if Saez allows him to rate or if he’ll try to blow the lid off the field in the first ⅛ of a mile. Camino (#2) is a 20-1 longshot for Ron Moquett in this race. While giving the mount to Gavin Ashton isn’t necessarily a ringing endorsement, I do think this horse has a shot in this race. The offspring of Upstart get 16% debut winners in dirt sprints. His dam foaled a horse that was Grade 3 placed in her career. She was second in her debut and then went on to win her next two starts, including an allowance score on this oval. 

Race 5:

We’ll get our first look at some two year olds going 1 ⅛ miles on the turf  in this maiden special weight contest for fillies. Riley Mott sends out Temeraire (#7), who should have no issues with the distance in this race, The dam foaled Sir Anthony, who was a Grade 3 winner on the dirt and the winner of the 2 mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes on the turf at Gulfstream last year. She also foaled a runner who won in her third career start which was also her turf debut. That one came back to run third at this distance on this course. I think her debut at Kentucky Downs was useful, but I suspect that switching to two turns and going a longer distance should benefit her more than many of these. Bohemian (#8) has five races under her belt and she was the favorite in a race at Churchill last month. She was in the middle of a sustained and good looking bid when the rider of one of the front-runners went down and she had to slam on the brakes and veer out into the center of the course, effectively ending what was looking like it could have been a maiden breaking performance. She faces a tougher group today, but I think she has ability and a solid foundation, which feels meaningful here. Counterintuitive (#11) is trying to give Chad Brown his first winner at this meet. Her debut at Saratoga was respectable and Flavien Prat will be getting the return call today. There are things to like, but I’m going to need better than 4-1 (ML), considering the way the meet has gone for this barn. Cox also has a live runner in this race with Kentucky Belle (#3) trying the turf for the first time. She debuted in a one mile race on the dirt at Churchill last month and closed well to be 3rd. She’s sired by Justify and the dam has foaled a winner at two turns on the turf. This is another one that feels a little too short at her morning line figure (7-2) for my liking, but any time Irad Ortiz and Brad Cox pair up, it’s worth paying attention to.

Race 6, The $250K Dean Dorton Myrtlewood Stakes:

A field of six two year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this stakes contest. Usually, you get a handful of gate to wire maiden winners in these stakes races, but that;s not the case with this group. I think this becomes a great spot for One Time Girl (#2) to stay undefeated and win her third straight race. Speed has generally been an asset on this course, and I’m not sure anyone can beat her to lead. After winning her debut race, she came to Churchill to clear the N2L allowance condition at this distance. She battled hard and put away her competition, winning by four easy lengths. The dam was a very nice horse that won her first two starts and then was third in the Pocohontas when making her third and final start. Dale Romans conditioned that horse for Albaugh Family Stables and her first foal to race looks like a good one, Woodstock (#5) is the backup for me, coming here off a dominating 10+ length score in a small stakes race in Oklahoma. Remington Park shippers have often struggled when coming to better circuits, but I do think this Yaupon filly has some quality. I like that she’s cutting back from 6 ½ furlongs and I think she poses the main danger to the favorite in this spot. 

Race 7:

We’ll go back to the turf in this N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. There are some very nice pedigrees in this race and some good looking fillies and mares that could have some bright futures. Correto (#5) is the top pick for me. She’s a full sister to the multiple graded stakes winning horse, Spooky Channel. She ran well as a two year old, winning on debut and finishing in the money in the Miss Grillo Stakes. She ran 7th beaten five lengths at long odds in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies last fall. She made two starts earlier in the year, losing to two nice fillies, Nitrogen and Vixen. She’s been sidelined since that race and now makes her first start since. She’ll get Lasix for the first time while running for a barn that is very sharp off layoffs. Cliffs (#14) was on the outside looking in a race at this condition earlier in the meet and she’s suffered the same fate once again, as she’ll need two defections in order to go in this race. She was very sharp at Saratoga this summer, breaking her maiden at the beginning of August and nearly clearing this condition at the end of that month. Cherie DeVaux has worked her three times since not drawing into her last race. She needs help again today, but she’s a major player if she gets in. Caitlin Time (#1) is an interesting runner here, making her first start at two turns on the turf. She was really good when making her first start on the grass, while racing for Mike Maker for the first time. She didn’t show much in her first four starts while she was racing for Kelly Von Hemel on the dirt. Maker is so good at getting the most out of some of these underperforming horses. The pedigree tells me that this distance on the lawn should be within her capabilities. Quietly (#7) is another longer priced option that has some intrigue in this race. Four starts ago, she just missed at this level. Her last three tries haven’t been great though. She was not liking the three turns of an 11 furlong race three back. She acted out and was essentially eased that day. She was okay two back at Ellis but she regressed in a race taken off the turf in her last start. She ran okay here against a strong field for this condition in the spring. If she can get back to that kind of effort, she’ll likely be closer today.

Race 8:

Nine are entered in an optional $100K claiming/N3X allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Speed has been playing well in these dirt races and the outer lanes don’t look like they’re a good place to be on this course. I think this a good spot for Hold My Bourbon (#4) to take this field all the way. He ran poorly in the Forego two starts back and I didn’t love the ride he got from Gaffalione in the Parx Sprint, which was the 15th race of the day on the PA Derby undercard. He gets Lasix once again and he reunites with Jose Ortiz, who was aboard for his last victory at the Spa. He has two decent races on this course,all of which makes me hopeful that he’ll run one of his better races. Brotha Kenny (#3) was a stakes winner in a race at Churchill for three year olds last month. It took him a while to figure some things out, but he’s been really good in his last three starts, including two third place finishes in Grade 3 derbies. He would have been overmatched in the Fayette tomorrow, so I like that he’s running in this spot, which carries a $140K purse. Capital Idea (#8) is making his third start off the layoff and his third since moving into Bill Mott’s barn. He cleared the first two allowance conditions at Saratoga. He wasn’t as sharp in his true, two-turn races last year, so that is something to keep an eye on, especially if he’s bet down from his 7-2 morning line figure. 

Race 9, The Grade 2 Bank of America Valley View Stakes:

This Grade 2 contest for three year old fillies almost always draws a lot of interest and this year’s edition is no different. 15 are entered with a maximum of 12 starters going postward in this one mile test. There are some really nice horses in this race and while I think it’s possible that there’s going to be several fillies within a few lengths of each other at the wire, I think the horse with the most upside in this race is Tabiti (#9). She made her stateside debut in the Music City Stakes at Kentucky Downs. She ran well in that 6 ½ furlong contest, but I think that race was a little too short for her. She won a nice, Group 3, seven furlong race earlier this year at Goodwood. She was passed late when leading late in a Class 2 Handicap at Royal Ascot when making her three year old debut. That race had 25 starters, so getting caught in the final yards of that one, while also making her first start in eight months felt understandable. She moves into Brad Cox’s barn, and he has great numbers with new acquisitions. The blinkers are coming off, which probably makes sense when looking at her rivals in this race. I think she has the potential to beat this field by open lengths if everything clicks here. There’s a lot of speed signed on for this race, and May Day Ready (#12) might be one that could benefit from that the most. She had an outside draw in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year and she was rolling late, before running out of real estate. After a dull effort when shooting for the stars in Japan and another dull try in an off the turf stakes race, she started to look like her old self this summer. She won the Lake Placid Stakes two back, but she was not the best version of herself in the Winter Memories Stakes last month at Belmont at the Big A. She didn’t like being buried on the rail and she pulled herself up into the clear, while going wide into the first turn. She over-exerted herself and left herself with no juice for the stretch run. I think the outside draw should allow her to tuck in to the outside of horses, where she wants to be. She can be effective when coming from off the pace and I think that’s the trip that Jose Ortiz will need to orchestrate with her. If someone upsets the top pick, I think it’s going to be her. 

Race 10:

The nightcap is a $50K starter allowance for two year olds who either have started for a $50K tag or less or broke their maidens in a restricted maiden special weight race. In addition, they must still be eligible for the first level allowance condition to participate in this 6 ½ furlong race. While I don’t love backing horses with strong figures on sloppy tracks, I do love the way that Just Like Max (#4) won on debut. He was in the middle of the pack on a wet and dreary day at Churchill, but after taking a lot of mud in the face, he was able to tip out into the four path and drive home a much the best winner that day. Genaro Garcia is a sharp claiming trainer and he saw something that he liked with this Maximum Security colt. He originally had planned to run him in a claiming race earlier in this meet, but he scratched out of that race in favor of this protected spot, which I see as an encouraging sign. I think he can win again with this group. J J Grey (#5) has kept better company than anyone in this field, even in those efforts came in races on the turf. The dam has foaled a horse with two wins on the dirt. I love Street Boss as a turf sprint sire, but he has had a good deal of success with his dirt sprinters as well, winning at a 16% clip over the last five years. The works on the dirt at Churchill are encouraging signs that he can handle the surface switch. Both of these runners like to run from the back of the pack, and the way the track has been playing, I do feel the need to have a horse that will be forward on the A line as well. Capanaparo (#3) pressed a sharp pace in a small field last out at Belmont at the Big A and he pulled away with ease in the stretch that day. Irad Ortiz taking the mount feels like a plus for his local debut. I think he’ll be the early mix for the lead in this spot and after watching him finish his last race, he should be able to hang around late. 

2025 Fall Meet Statistics (As of 10/22/25), Top Pick Winners:

29/128 (22.7%), $286.48, $2.24 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.