Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, 10/3/25 – By Eric Solomon

The fall Keeneland Meet is front loaded with high quality stakes races, designed to be important prep races for the Breeders’ Cup next month at Del Mar. 2 of the 14 winners last year raced during this meet and 3 other winners raced at Keeneland at some point in their careers before earning their career defining scores on at the Breeders’ Cup. The Opening Day card offers three “Win and You’re In” Races for the biggest weekend of racing in Thoroughbred Racing. Immersive won the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades last year en route to becoming the Champion Two Year Old Filly following her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies score. Six fillies will look to take the same path this afternoon in the first Grade 1 of the meet. First post for the first card of the meet is 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The meet begins with a $30K starter allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. I feel like this race should paint a pretty clear picture of how this track is going to be playing. Miss Ellary (#2) figures to be on the front end, but she’s had trouble holding on in several races against lesser competition, and even in times when she’s had favorable pace scenarios. Sometimes this course can become very speed friendly, so I’m thinking that is Miss Ellary is able to kick clear of Indy Label (#4) and Nerazurri (#7), then we could be looking at a main track that is kind to speed from the inside lanes. Since this will be the first race of the meet, I’ll use Miss Ellary as a saver. I do like the barn change for this New Jersey bred filly, and getting Tyler Gaffalione to ride is a plus. However, I don’t really trust her to outfinish the top two picks on a fair course. Indy Label is the play for me in this spot. She’s had some up and down form of late. She ran 4th here in the spring when facing a sharper N2X allowance group. She really struggled in her next at Churchill ,but she rebounded two starts ago to finish 3rd at long odds at the Spa. They took a swing on the turf at Kentucky Downs when going 1 5/16 miles on the turf there last time out, where she showed little interest. She should be sitting in the middle of the pack and there should be an honest tempo developing in front of her. Her form starting going in the right direction in the fall last season, so I’m expecting her to bounce back while getting some significant class relief. Neraruzzi is the logical alternative, but she is asked to do something new for the first time on raceday. After nine starts, today will be the first time that she’s being asked to go two turns. After a disastrous debut here last fall, she was moved into Angel Quiroz’s barn. This filly has been responsible for two of his five wins in 2025. She ran a career top race last out when she finished second in the Grade 3 Princess Rooney Stakes at Gulfstream.  She’s made four straight starts in stakes company and she finished in the money at double digit odds in her last three. She drops into  a starter allowance race which carries a nice $55K purse. I think there’s a good chance that she gets first run on Indy Label. However, how strong her finishing kick will be at this distance is the big mystery. 

Race 2:

This $50K maiden claiming for two year olds going 6 ½ furlongs, might be the most challenging race on the card. I’ll try a first time starter, making A Cab On the Rocks (#2) the top pick for Ethan West. He’s been working like a horse that has some ability over a Turfway, so we’ll see if that translates to the dirt course here. Vino Rosso gets 7% winners with first time starters debuting in dirt sprints. The dam was unraced, but she was a daughter of Nyquist, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on this course in 2015 and his runners like running here. Both Awesome Magic (#5) and Frosted Warrior (#7) are coming out of a slow maiden special weight race at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Frosted Warrior started a chain reaction event that affected Awesome Magic. While that likely did her in that short sprint, she closed well to get into second that afternoon. Any time a two year old is able to regroup after some significant trouble, I’ll take that as a positive sign, The Beyer Figure came back like, but the Equibase Figure is much more competitive. The Beyer Figures for two year olds aren’t always precise, especially at less common distances like the 4 ½ furlong trip they got last time out. As a result,  this feels like an opportunity where his price could go up because that race could be perceived as being slower than it really was. By that logic, I do feel I need to toss in Frosted Warrior on some deeper tickets as well. He stumbled a bit coming out of the gate in that race, and he also lost some ground due to the trouble that he caused going into the turn. There was a month gap between his last recorded start and his career debut. He drilled a sharp four furlongs at Ellis and now comes here a week later. John Hancock has decent numbers with second time starters, so he’s another runner that could show up at a decent number here. 

Race 3:

The first turf race of the meet is a 1 1/16 mile turf maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies. This is also the first of three races where Brad Cox is sending out a short priced second time starter. Sneakily (#6) debuted at Ellis in a maiden special weight contest, finishing second that day. Irad Ortiz Jr. will team up with Cox for the first time at Keeneland since April of 2022. They’ve only teamed up 96 times in the last five years, winning 21% of the time. Brian Hernandez Jr. rode this filly in her first try, but he’s on the sidelines after a spill, so Ortiz is the next man up. However, of the trio of Cox favorites, I think this filly is the most vulnerable. She ran an even race on debut, but the fact that debuted on the turf at two turns, tells me that this filly wasn’t showing a lot of speed in the morning on the dirt. She’s bred to be a nice dirt horse, sired by Tapit out of a Grade 2 winning While she ran okay to be second behind a horse with a race under her belt who set a very slow pace, I’m thinking this high priced filly isn’t showing this barn the things they had hoped when they shelled out $850K for her in August of 2024. I think there’s a higher ceiling with another runner from that race, Trust Account (#5). She’s a daughter of Into Mischief foaled by the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner, Shared Account. Her last daughter to race in North America was Sharing, who was the winner of the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Sharing needed a race to get things figured out before winning in her second career start. This filly was also pace compromised in her debut and she was trapped behind a wall of horses. Once she was able to tip out, she closed well after switching leads. I think she’s likely to take a step forward here and I suspect she’ll have the better career than the filly that finished in front of her last time out. Turner’s Charm (#1) debuted at seven furlongs at Kentucky Downs in maiden allowance company. Like Trust Account, this filly is also trained by Brendan Walsh. Tyler Gaffalione rode both last time out, and it’s not surprising to see him stick with the filly that cost $1,500,000 as opposed to the filly that cost $75,000. However, Turner’s Charm ran quite well in her first start, and I trust the form of horses that ran credible races at Kentucky Downs. Her full brother is a three time winner on turf in two turn races, so I do think she’ll move forward in this spot. I’d also consider using Atlantic Beach (#10), shipping in from Woodbine for Catherine Day-Phillips. She closed well when going seven furlongs in her debut there, catching a course that was labeled yielding. While her dam has yet to foal a winner, she did her best work at two turns on the turf. Omaha Beach did all of his work on the dirt, but he’s sired by War Front. His runners are winning 14% of the time in turf route races. Day-Phillips has decent numbers with second time starters and Luis Saez taking the mount is a plus. 

Race 4:

Two year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $120K N2L allowance race. While I think I’d love her at seven furlongs in this race, I’ll still side with Tiz in Sight (#8) at this distance today. She ran okay in the Adirondack two back. I thought she had a tougher trip than Spa Prospector (#4), who had a sweet rail ride, but came up empty. She came with a wide bid and was bumped at the top of the lane, but still finished just ¾ of a length behind Prospector. The top two finishers of that race are significantly better than anyone in this group. She tried the turf in the PG Johnson and wasn’t interested in the lawn when running into Todd Pletcher’s, Time to Dream, who we’ll see later on in the card. I think that effort will give her a stamina boost in a race where I think many will be in chase mode early and often. Kingsolver (#1) broke her maiden in the Schuylerville two starts back .She ran well to be second in the Debutante at Ellis Park where she finished in front of Prowess (#6), who she sees again today. Flavien Prat was aboard for her only career win and he’s back in the saddle again today. Donna Romano (#7) drew the rail in a large field at Saratoga in an auction maiden special weight race. The final time came back solid that day and her speed figures were solid for that effort. This is a tougher field, but Brad Cox’s horses tend to be better in their second starts. She’s the morning line favorite in this spot, but I think 9-5 is a little too short for my liking. If her price floats up, I’d be more inclined to back her, but for now, I’m viewing her as more of a backup. 

Race 5:

Three year olds and up will go about seven furlongs on the Beard Course. While Brad Cox’s second time starter, Divine Justice (#6) figures to take a lot of attention at the windows, I’m much more interested in Nu What’s New (#3), making his second start off the layoff for James DiVito. He was gelded after two starts in the spring at Churchill where he didn’t make much of an impression. He was a little slow into stride once again when coming back in a six furlong race at this level over at Churchill. However, he was rolling late to just miss at short odds. I like the stretch out to seven furlongs in this spot. The longer distance should mean a pace that is a little slower, allowing him to lie a little closer in the early stages of this one. I think Walter Rodriguez figured some things out with this son of Munnings. I think he’s going to be finishing the fastest here. Morluck (#1) is the backup for me in this spot. He’s often the bridesmaid, but never the bride, as he’s come close several times in the past. He came back from  a six month layoff this summer where he was a heavy favorite in a one turn mile race at Colonial .He came up a little short in that spot, but I do think he’ll be more fit for this one. He ran a good race to be a close second behind Bracket Buster here last fall. I think the cutback could serve him well. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 and the $3 All Turf Pick-3 wagers both begin with this N1X allowance contest for fillies and mares going one mile. I’m hopeful that today will be the day where Eunomia (#10) puts it all together. She makes her first start since finishing a fast closing 4th in a race at this level on the Haskell undercard at Monmouth. She was shut off at the break in that race and forced to rally from last on a course that was not kind to horses coming from off the pace. Once she switched leads, she was closing well down the center of the track and she galloped out in front. She had a nice three three starts back at Churchill where she was caught late after setting the pace in a nine furlong race. Her effort at this level here in the spring was much better than it looks on paper. She was widest of all while tracking the pacesetters. She was asked to produce her run into the turn, but as she was accelerating, the horse to her inside got out a bit causing her to lose all momentum, which caused another runner behind her to lose all of their action and pull up out of the race. Others were whizzing by, and she was near the back of the field halfway through the stretch. I was impressed with her ability to re-break though, which got her back into 6th. Victoria Oliver gave her a little extra time in between starts, and she appears to have this meet in mind. Her numbers off this kind of layoff aren’t good, but I do believe this three year old filly is a good fit here if Frankie Dettori can get her figured out. This race totally changes if Cliffs (#14) draws in off the AE list. She was really good in two starts at Saratoga this summer, breaking her maiden two back and finishing a strong second at this level in her last start. She has made progress in each of her four starts. While her post will likely be lousy if she does run in this race, I do believe there is plenty of quality with this filly and that is absolutely worth using on your tickets. Golden Gamble (#9) and In the Stars (#6) are both coming off strong efforts at Kentucky Downs, and the horses that ran their last fall certainly made a positive impression at this meet. Golden Gamble tried the turf for the first time when going one mile, which is a one turn race there. She got a little tired in the late stages of that race, which does correspond to the uphill run to the wire. She was making her first start since January and her first start on the grass that day, so perhaps her fitness level was a tad light for that kind of finish. She sticks with the turf and tries two turns once again. She continues to work well in the AM , suggesting that she can move forward in her second try off the break. In the Stars is a maiden winner who will likely be the post time favorite if Cliffs doesn’t go. She has two nice turf efforts on the turf at Churchill, which are clearly better than her four dirt tries. When looking at her pedigree, one would think it would be the opposite, as her dam, Stellar Wind, was a really nice horse who won six Grade 1 races at two turns on the dirt. Her full brother debuted on the dirt but just finished second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes last time out on grass, so perhaps the turf influences in their pedigrees are stronger than they appear to be. Her last race was strong, but I’m not crazy about her as the favorite. I have her slotted on the B line, but I’d probably put her on the A line if Cliffs doesn’t participate. 

Race 7, The Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes:

This Grade 2 Sprint race is a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar next month. Horses like Whitmore, Runhappy, Work All Week, and Aloha West have used this race as a prep prior to winning the Sprint. There are six fast horses in this race, two of which are making their 7th starts at Keeneland. Nakatomi (#5) is one of them, and this six year old gelding has three wins and two second place finishes in those six local tries. Wesley Ward always targets this meet and he’s looking to get the trophy in this race for the first time. He came close in 2023 with him, but he was no match for Federal Judge last year. I think he’s going to get the right setup with Skelly (#3) blazing the trail and World Record (#4) hot on his trail. Nakatomi is at his best when he’s not too far off the pace, and I trust Irad Ortiz is going to give him the right ride. This race feels wide open, but I think this old timer has a big time shot. Skelly is a nice horse that has shown the ability to run the best figures in this field. He’s never been to Keeneland, and his trainer, Steve Asmussen has struggled considerably here over the last several years. Outside of Oaklawn Park, this one is not nearly as threatening. He should be a short price in this race, but I think he’s vulnerable in this spot. I’ll upgrade him if speed is holding well, but I think Nakatomi is the one to beat here. 

Race 8, The Grade 2 Jessamine Presented by Keeneland Sales:

The 4th of six races on the card for babies is a 1 1/16 contest for fillies on the turf. As with many of the turf races at this meet, this contest drew an overflow field. Rose Room (#5) and Dyna (#14) are cross-entered in the Miss Grillo at Belmont. If Stidham is leaning here, that would allow Dyna to draw into the New York race. Should Rose Room defect from this race, that would allow Soloist (#13) to draw into this race. My assumption is that McPeek would run Soloist, if given the chance and I think she has a shot to win this race, despite a miserable post. I really liked her debut effort when she drew the rail in a full field of 12 at Ellis. Despite running the shortest distance. She was in tight quarters at different points in the race and she didn’t flinch. She also rallied along the rail, showing a lot of toughness for a first time starter. She cut back to a one turn race when running in the Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Kentucky Downs. She went to the front shortly after the break and then set some sharp fractions while going down the hill. She struggled in the final 1/16 of a mile while traveling uphill, finishing 5th. The top 5 finishers were separated by ¾ of a length, and the top 4 horses were 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th at the second call, speaking to the strong pace that this horse set. She’s proven that she can relax off the speed and she’ll likely need to do that if she gets to run. She paired her two Beyer Figures from her first two starts, and I see her as a candidate to improve in this spot. Note that her regular rider, Brian Hernandez, is out with an injury, so John Velazquez gets the assignment.  Mackinac (#2) would default to the top pick if Soloist doesn’t get the chance to compete. She is stretching out to two turns for the first time after two solid efforts in sprint races. She won a nice allowance race at Kentucky Downs when breaking her maiden last out. She draws a favorable post whereas a lot of the other major players have drawn wide. The dam only ran twice in her career and both of those starts were dirt sprints. Her first two foals to race were both better in sprints. However, both of those horses had more sprinter speed oriented sires. Twirling Candy gets 10% winners with his runners making their first routes on the turf and 16% winners overall in turf route races. Time to Dream (#12) is one of two very impressive two year olds that Todd Pletcher is showcasing on this card. She was very impressive in her first two wins this summer at the Spa, breaking her maiden while coming from off the pace in July. She came back in August to win the PG Johnson Stakes there with ease. She likes to come from off the pace so she’s I don’t think she’ll mind settling near the back of the pack in this one. I’d imagine that Irad Ortiz is going to try to tuck her in wherever he can to save the most amount of ground possible. She’s going to have to navigate a larger field today, so there are question marks. However, there is definite class here, so she’d be one to use on your tickets. As they jockey for position in this race, another horse that could be flying on the scene late could be Red Beretta (#10). This horse is continually underestimated, but she keeps improving for Michael Douaihy. She had a lot of trouble in her first try on turf at Churchill when going five furlongs, but she finished well in spite of that. She broke her maiden when going two turns at Horseshoe Indianapolis in her third career try. While she struggled in stakes company on the dirt at Ellis two back, she came within a head of pulling off a 75-1 upset in the aforementioned Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Things were tight in the stretch, but she was firing her best shot from of the pace that day. While I think Soloist has more upside from out of that race, this one could certainly be a spoiler once again with this group if she gets the right trip. I don’t think she’ll be sitting on the board at her 20-1 morning line price, however, if they hammer the Pletcher filly, she could be another huge price in this race. I definitely think she’s worth including, especially considering that she has a stronger foundation of races than any of her rivals.                                                        

Race 9, The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades:

The first Grade 1 race of the meet is for two year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. There’s a standout in this race with Tommy Jo (#3) for Todd Pletcher and Spendthrift Farm. They opted to keep this homebred, who has clearly been a standout for a while. She was excellent when winning her debut at the Spa in July. She beat a next out winner in that spot where she settled off the leaders before coming with a powerful, four wide bid. That effort earned her a spot in the Grade 1 Spinaway at the end of the Saratoga meet. She settled nicely once again and then pounced on the pacesetters, while drawing clear to win by 6 ½ lengths. The dam was a multiple stakes winning sprinter for Bob Baffert. I’ve seen no evidence that this filly is going to struggle at two turns. She is shipping for the first time and trying a new distance, so taking 2-5 or lower is less than desirable. However, I think she’s just better than her foes. The distant second place finisher in the Spinaway was Percy’s Bar (#1) for Ben Colebrook. She won the Debutante Stakes at Churchill two starts ago and she was an impressive maiden breaker here in the spring in one of the 4 ½ furlong sprint contests. While it’s not uncommon for two year olds to take big jumps forward, she is going to have to get a lot better than the top pick, and I’m not sure she can do that without some type of a major miscue or trouble from the favorite. 

Race 10: 

Opening day will end with the 6th two year old race on the program. This is the second division of a maiden special weight race for fillies. The first heat is the third race of the afternoon. With the lucrative purses at Kentucky Downs and the limited opportunities at that meet, you’ll often see horses running at distances that might be slightly less than ideal, since the reward generally outweighs the risk. That was likely the school of though when Mike Maker ran Beach Ballad (#4) at seven furlongs at Kentucky Downs. She ran a big race two back when going 1 1/16 miles at Saratoga where she was caught late by a nice filly (Deep Learning). She came back to run a close 5th in the Natalma and she’ll run this afternoon in the Miss Grillo at Aqueduct. She ran well at Kentucky Downs, but she had a wall of horses in front of her and had to wait a long time to make her run. She got up for third and galloped out well that day. Maker toyed with the idea of running this filly in stakes company at Laurel, but I think he wisely opted for this spot instead. She’s drawn in the inner half of the starting gate, so I think she’ll be able to track the leaders in a good spot early on. I think she can get first run on some of the closers and graduate from the maiden ranks today. While some of the other first time starters might take more attention, I think Inkling (#7) is interesting in this spot. She;s a daughter of Street Sense out of the graded stakes winning mare, Penwith. She’s a half to Cornishman, who won the Grade 3 Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows on the dirt this summer. While her pedigree suggests she’ll be better on the dirt, she’s been working quite well over the synthetic at Turfway. Eoin Harty has decent numbers with first time starters going long. I think she’s a sneaky player in this spot. Miss Watermelon (#8) is another firster worth paying mind to in this spot. She debuts for Jonathan Thomas after a nice series of works in New York, Virginia, and now here. The dam’s only other runner to race was a winner on debut when going six furlongs on the dirt. The dam herself was a stakes winner at two turns on dirt and turf. Cairo Prince gets 20% winners with his runners routing on the turf for the first time. There are things to like here as well. 

2025 Spring Meet Final Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 

37/140 (26.4%), $302.83 – $2.16 ROI

2024 Fall Meet Final Statistics:

39/162 (24.1%), $347.30 – $2.14 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.