Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, 4/10/26 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a really nice Friday card at Keeneland where we’ll see the return of two Breeders’ Cup winners. In the 7th race, Cy Fair, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint, will make her seasonal debut against fillies in the Grade 3 Fanduel Limestone Stakes. Later on in the 9th race, Notable Speech will make his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall.  First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll kick things off with a $25K claiming race for four year olds and up going seven furlongs. There are several runners moving up in class for this race, which makes this a little tricky. In terms of recent form and overall speed figures, the one to beat in this race is clearly Curahee (#7). He had three sharp efforts over the main track in New Orleans over the winter. Joe Sharp has decent numbers with runners going from routes to sprints, but this will be his first try at one turn over the main track. His turf sprint efforts are the best, but there’s a stark difference between going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf and 7 furlongs on the dirt. Still, the overall uncertainty in regard to how he’ll handle the trip makes me want to use a different runner as the top pick and give myself options in the multi-race wagers. I’m thinking Tagliatelle (#3) is capable of running well on this course. He was moving well late on the synthetic to get into third place in an allowance race on the Jeff Ruby Steaks undercard. He does prefer to come from off the pace and that running style has not been great on this course. However, he’s one that has been typically facing better opposition, so I’m expecting him to be more competitive at this level on a traditional dirt course. 

Race 2:

16 were entered for this $20K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going seven furlongs, however, only a maximum of 12 will compete. The racing office carded another race at this condition tomorrow and all four AE runners have a spot in that race, so I’m assuming they’ll all be scratched here. Nash Potatoes (#1) is a bit of a professional maiden in this spot, but he is dropping to the lowest level yet after three tries on the Tapeta at Turfway. His figures on the dirt in the fall both here and at Churchill were more competitive, so he feels like a horse that should be sitting on a better effort. The morning line favorite is Twenty Two Black (#5), who is a three year old, cutting back to a seven furlong sprint after a two turn turf race in New Orleans. His dirt form there would play very well, so this could be another horse that is finding the right distance and surface after racing at a track where this distance is not offered. Kenny McPeek has started a ton of horses here, but he’s picked runners that are finding competitive spots. On deeper tickets, He’s All Heart (#12) is a wildcard in this race. He has two synthetic tries at Turfway where he’s faced $30K-$20K maiden claimers. He adds blinkers for his first dirt start and gets Juan Hernandez to ride today. I feel like his 9-2 morning line is a bit short, but the potential is definitely there. 

Race 3:

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance test on the turf. I thought this was the most difficult race on the card, and handicapping this race in advance is even more complicated because I think all four runners on the AE list could be contenders in this race if they were to draw in. The morning line favorite is Touch of Fire (#1). He has two career starts for Brad Cox at the Fair Grounds, crushing a maiden special weight field on debut and then finishing second as a heavy favorite in the Black Gold Stakes there in his most recent try. He wants to be forward, but there are other horses that want to be in the mix for the lead as well. He is a deserving favorite, but his 9-5 price is too low for me. Especially if any of the AE runners get into this field, it would be hard for me to take lower than 4-1 on just about anyone. I’ll use him on some horizontal plays, but I think there’s value to be had here. Mendels Mate (#7) feels like a horse that could get lost on the board, and potentially go off at odds longer than his 15-1 morning line price. He has some early trends going against him, however, I still think he’s worth considering. Joe Sharp is only 2-32 over the last five years with horses going from synthetic to turf. In addition, Turfway shippers have fared well here in past years, but horses who last raced there are only 1-29 over the first three days at this meet. However, since adding Lasix and going to route races, he’s been a much better horse. He was a winner on Valentines Day in maiden allowance company and then he came back three weeks later with a strong effort at this N1X level, losing in a photo. Tyler Gaffalione has also struggled early on at this meet, but historically, he’s been very good here in Lexington. He’ll get the assignment for the first time. Knotty Knicks (#13) is the first runner to draw in off the AE list and he’s definitely one to consider if he gets to play. He’s been competitive, despite falling short in his last six races. However, the winners of those races, Alpyland, Thousandsticks, and Fulleffort, are really nice, stakes caliber horses. The far outside draw is less than ideal, but this is a horse that always shows up, and he’s been very competitive when racing at this level. Doctrine (#12) is another runner that was done no favors with his post draw, However, he’s the other Brad Cox runner in this race. His figures are a little lower than his stablemates, but he’s also been impressive in his two career starts. He’s coming in from Gulfstream and horses who last raced there are 9-29 thus far at this meet. Luis Saez continues to ride exceptionally well here so far, and he’ll need to do that here to get this one home. 

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles over the main track in this $40K N2L claiming race. A lot of attention is going to be paid to Maximum Promise (#4) in this race. He caught people’s attention when decisively breaking his maiden in August of 2024 when going one mile on the dirt at Ellis by over 14 lengths. Since then, he’s 0-9, all coming against better competition. He hasn’t really run a winning race and he’s often lagging behind in the early stages of a race, and then coming with a belated bid that comes up short. Blinkers are going on today for his second start of the year. He is the class of this field, but it’s concerning that his only win came when setting the pace and that appears to be something that he’s not really able to do. I’ll cover with him, but there are other options that figure to offer better value. Arthur Jr (#3) is the top pick for me in this spot. I made a case for him at Oaklawn in starter allowance company for his last start, but he was empty that day. He was much sharper two back when finishing third with $75K N2L claimers. The winner of that race ran out of his mind that day and the runner-up came back to win in his next start. He’s 0-3 on this course but those races came against better fields and I also believe that he’s a better horse now. I’ll play him to rebound in this race today. Profound (#2) is a bit of a wild card in this race as he’s never competed on the dirt. I do like his recent form though and his workouts at here and at Palm Meadows suggest that the transition won’t be an issue. Draw a line through his last start at 12 furlongs on the turf. He was sharper two back in his first start off the claim. William Walden is winning at close to 30% this year thus far, so a lot of his moves are working. I think 3-1 is a little light from a value perspective, but I do thin he’s worth having on your tickets. 

Race 5:

The Early Pick-5 ends with a N2X allowance race for fillies and mares traveling 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. I like Lady Ilze (#12) a good bit in this race. She started her career in Warsaw, Poland, which is a new one for me. She ran well there in some turf sprint races before going to Germany to compete in stakes races. She won a Group 2 race there last spring and while that form is sometimes hard to compare, I think her next race gave an indication that this filly is very talented. She went off at 50-1 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket where she finished 5th, about four lengths behind Cinderella’s Dream. That mare was a Grade 1 winner in the US and she finished a close second behind Moira in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf in 2024. After that race, she came to the States where she ran in the Ladies Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs. She finished 7th that day, posting a solid figure over a course that was rock hard and lighting fast. I think the course here at Keeneland will be more to her liking. She’s now trained by Mark Casse, who has been having a strong 2026 thus far, especially with his Oaklawn string. He had a winner here last weekend and I think this mare has a big shot while maybe flying under the radar a bit in this race. Bracelet (#8) makes some sense to use in this spot while getting back on the turf for her second start of 2026. She was very sharp this fall, winning on this course in October and then running a very strong 4th in a strong edition of the Grade 2 Ms. Revere at Churchill. She was flat two back and her comeback race at the Fair Grounds was rained off the turf. I like that she still ran in that spot because I do think it helps her fitness level for this race. Daisy Flyer (#9) is another one to consider in this spot. She cleared the N1X condition by winning the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes at the Spa this summer. She finished off the board in a pair of tough races at then of her three year old season. Rusty Arnold was 3 for 50 to start off 2026, but his horses are 2-7 here thus far. This is a big mount for a young rider, as Axel Concepcion gets the assignment. 

Race 6: 

A field of eight has been assembled for this maiden special weight dash. Despite a strong effort on the dirt in his debut, I’m fading the morning line favorite, Puteketeke (#3). I’d need to get him at closer to 4-1 or 5-1 in this race, and I’m not sure I see that happening. Mizzou (#4) is the one that I want in this spot. Out of nowhere, he showed up here after 13 ½ months on the sidelines back in October and he ran a huge race to lose in a three horse photo. He finished in front of Nu What’s New, a horse that has been a revelation this winter at Oaklawn, most recently winning the Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile, beating the former Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, Full Serrano. Since then, this colt hasn’t been able to get back to that race. He has been facing better horses than his rivals though. I like the return to Keeneland and the cutback in distance for him today. I’ll use Great Moment (#2) as a backup. He finished ahead of Puteketeke last out at the Fair Grounds in his first start in 11 months. I worry that he could bounce a bit here since that was such a step forward from his prior efforts. He could have developed in that time, as good horses do take big steps forward between three and four years old. I’ll be a little more conservative with him in this race, but he’s the backup for me.

Race 7, The Grade 3 Fanduel Limestone Stakes:

This turf sprint for three year old fillies came up quite salty as we’ll see the return for the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Cy Fair (#9). She was excellent in her four starts last year, losing only one time by a neck. She beat the boys in both the Algonquin Stakes at Woodbine and at the Breeders’ Cup, both of which came in five furlong dashes. She’ll make her three year old debut and she’ll likely be a heavy favorite based on her two year old form. Her works have been solid, so there’s no reason to think that she won’t be ready to roll. She’s definitely worth using,  but this feels like a chance to beat her. Lennilu (#8) is the pick, while making her second start of the year. After struggling at the Breeders’ Cup, she came back at Gulfstream to win the Melody of Colors Stakes last month. She has four stakes wins on her resume and she was good enough to be third in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer. I think having that first start is a big advantage in this spot. Snow Face Princess (#10) is also making her three year old debut. She was the only horse to finish in front of Cy Fair, beating her by a mere neck in the Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga last summer. She was purchased by Winchell Thoroughbreds after that race for $775K. They were able to recoup some of that cash when she finished 2nd in the Untapable Stakes at Kentucky Downs, a race which carried a million dollar purse. Steve Asmussen has a way with sprinters and he proved with Cogburn that he can be just as effective with turf sprinters. 

Race 8:

Fillies and mares will dash six furlongs in this N1X allowance race. Assuming that Keyana (#3), Cut to the Chase (#4), and Chatter (#5) are all going to run, there is a lot of speed signed on for this race. I think the favorite, She’s a Gemma (#6) gets the dream trip in this race and scores while facing winners for the first time. She’s made four starts and her two sprint races were very good. Her two races going the one turn mile at Aqueduct were not. After struggling in her December start in New York, Mott sent her to Florida, but she traveled to Arkansas with some other Mott runners and handled that course quite nicely, winning by 9 ½ lengths. I think Saez lets the three speed horses do their thing and makes her move at the top of the stretch. Tetiaroa (#2) is another one that could benefit from a quick early tempo. Her form has been hit or miss, but her two dismal races came at two turns and in Grade 2 company when she was not allowed to be treated with Lasix. She wasn’t great when going two turns on the turf in her last start either. Her one turn sprints were sharp though and she’s been working well for Phil Bauer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her put forth a much more competitive effort in this spot.  

Race 9, The Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile:

The main event this afternoon drew an impressive field of 13 (12 +1 AE). Three runners in this field have North American Grade 1 winners and all three of them are making their first starts of 2026 in this Grade 1 contest. While I think all three are worth using, I’m going to take a shot with a longshot and make Brilliant Berti (#12) the top pick. He likes this course and he has the advantage of getting a start under his belt this year. He showed some speed before fading late in the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap back in February. That race was contested at nine furlongs, which might be a shade longer than where he is best. He won the Bryan Station on this course in the Fall of 2024 and he was closing fast to get third in the Turf Mile here last fall. He was very good at Churchill there last spring, winning twice and finishing a close second the other time. He should get a decent pace to close into and I trust Brian Hernandez here as he seems to have a could rapport with this one. Of the Grade 1 winners, the one I am most interested in playing is Rhetorical (#1). He’ll need some help to turn the tables on Notable Speech (#4), who had his number on Breeder’s Cup Day. Prior to that effort, he was a winner in the Grade 1 Turf Mile on this course. His tactical speed makes him dangerous, because he’s adaptable to any scenario that he’s faced with. I’m hopeful that he’ll have a strong five year old campaign. Notable Speech is the definite class of this field, but coming back off the layoff could be a concern. This hasn’t been a good angle for Charles Appleby’s US invaders. While he clearly enjoys racing in the U.S., I have to wonder if this race is designed to have him more fit for the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newmarket, which was where he made his first start of 2025. Deterministic (#10) was getting really good last summer before he was sidelined after his strong score in the Fourstardave at Saratoga. His early speed became his best weapon last season, but making the lead in this race is going to be a challenge. I like the horse a lot, but I’m not sure I love the spot for him. He’s more of a backup for me. 

Race 10:

We’ll wrap up the Friday card with a $50K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going 6 ½ furlongs. I’m struggling to rationalize Chappelle (#2) being in this race. He has two starts in maiden allowance company in New Orleans where he finished close both times, earning an 80 Beyer Speed Figure for both races. Now he ships to Keeneland where he’ll run for a claiming tag that is $25K less than his purchase price. His works don’t seem as sharp as they were going into his last race, and perhaps entering him in this spot is tipping off that he hasn;t bounced back after that last start the way his connections would have hoped. I’m not really getting behind Swaging (#5), using the same logic. Perhaps it’s more about getting the winning experience at Keeneland, but I’m just not sold. I’m Trouble (#7) is the top pick in this race for Wesley Ward. He’s been working well for his first try on the dirt. Ward doesn’t drop too many horses into maiden claiming company from maiden special weight races, but when he does, the results are usually positive. Barker (#9) has been facing some serious racehorses of late, so the drop in class to this level should be excellent class relief. Taptastic, Nu What’s New and Publisher are just some of the names that he’s had to deal with of late. His lone start with a claiming tag was a much more competitive effort. This feels like the right level for him at this point. On deeper tickets, Sparkled (#8) is a newcomer that might be worth a look. The works for this one have gotten progressively better over the month of March, He’s sired by Connect, who gets 10% winners with his first timers in dirt sprints. Facing older foes feels like it might be a reach, but the risk could be worth the reward if his odds start floating over his 20-1 morning line figure. 

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.