The OddsWatch table tracks Kentucky Derby 152 odds across four sources: the official Churchill Downs morning line (Nick Tammaro), DRF’s David Aragona, the best available fixed-odds price on Oddschecker, and the Betfair Exchange. Updated after the post position draw on April 25.
Key moves post-draw: Aragona has moved Further Ado to 9-2 favorite, dropping Renegade to 5-1 after drawing the rail. Oddschecker books have Commandment as short as 9-2. The Betfair Exchange — the sharpest market — still has Renegade shortest at 4.1 but the gap between him and Commandment (6.5) is narrowing. Aragona is notably shorter on Danon Bourbon (15-1) and Emerging Market (12-1) than anyone else.
| PP | Horse | Tammaro ML | DRF (Aragona) | Oddschecker | Betfair Exch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 4-1 | 5-1 | 4-1 | 4.1 |
| 2 | Albus | 30-1 | 30-1 | 33-1 | 33.0 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 | 28.0 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 30-1 | 30-1 | 33-1 | 48.0 |
| 5 | Right to Party | 30-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 | 40.0 |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 | 6-1 | 9-2 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20-1 | 15-1 | 18-1 | 24.0 |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 | 15-1 | 14-1 | 20.0 |
| 9 | The Puma | 10-1 | 10-1 | 8-1 | 11.8 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 30-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 | 27.0 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 20-1 | 15-1 | 20-1 | 25.0 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 | 8-1 | 6-1 | 16.7 |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | 20-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 | 25.0 |
| 14 | Potente | 20-1 | 20-1 | 18-1 | 25.0 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 15-1 | 12-1 | 14-1 | 15.7 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 30-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 | 38.0 |
| 17 | Six Speed | 50-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 | 48.0 |
| 18 | Further Ado | 6-1 | 9-2 | 5-1 | 7.4 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 | 28.0 |
| 20 | Fulleffort | 20-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 | 25.0 |
| Overround | 128.4% | 132.1% | 143.1% | 110.9% | |
Sources: Nick Tammaro/Churchill Downs (official morning line, April 25) · DRF/David Aragona (post-draw line, April 25) · Oddschecker (best available fixed odds, April 25) · Betfair Exchange (decimal odds, April 25).
Overround = sum of implied probabilities. 100% = fair market. Lower = sharper. Betfair Exchange (110.9%) is the sharpest market; Oddschecker fixed-odds books carry the most built-in margin (143.1%). Bold prices indicate notable disagreements between sources.
Updated April 26, 2026.
