Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, October 25th, 2024 – By Eric Solomon

The final Friday card at Keeneland begins at 1:00 PM (EDT). The last two days of racing offers five stakes races, two of which are running today. Two year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in the Myrtlewood Stakes in Race 8. The featured 9th race is the Grade 2 Bank of America Valley View, which drew an excellent field of three year old fillies going a mile on the turf. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the afternoon with a $30K maiden claiming race, going 6 ½ furlongs. Some of the shorter prices in this race like Major Mack (#4), Lord of Mischief (#8), and J J’s Ranger (#11), would all fall under the category of “professional maidens”. For me, any of these horses could win this race, but none of them feel like good bets. They’ve all burned money and none of them have really run a winning race. They’d be horses to think about in the bottom legs of the vertical exotics, but I won’t be playing any of them to win. This seems like a reasonable spot for Rope a Dope (#10), making his third career start and his second off a layoff. He debuted in March on the Tapeta at Turfway, finishing last of nine with $50K-$40K maiden claimers. He was 5th at the $20K maiden claiming level last month at Churchill when trying the dirt for the first time. He’ll need to improve to win this race, but I don’t think he’ll need to improve dramatically. He’s listed at 10-1 and at that number, I’d be on board. Steppin Silver (#6) debuts for Paulo Lobo in this race. He’s a three year old sired by The Factor, out of a Tiznow mare. Lobo has good numbers with firsters, winning with 23% of his debuting runners that were three years old or older over the last five years. 3 of 14 runners (21%) in that category, debuted in a maiden claiming race. Lobo only has had one winner at the meet, but he popped with a bomb last week. The dam has produced a debut winner and the works are respectable. This one would not be a surprise if he found his way to the Winner’s Circle. Miyagi (#7) makes his first start since November while running for new connections. On one hand, he faced some strong maiden winners in his first two starts, running into Booth (and Nash) on debut, and then facing Carbone in his second start. However, he was a $150K purchase and he’s in for a $30K tag after not running for 11 months. There are definitely mixed signals, but he’s more interesting than the others who have had several chances when facing softer opposition. 

Race 2:

Two year olds will go 1 ⅛ miles on the turf in this maiden special weight race. From a pedigree standpoint, there’s no one better in this field than Chapman’s Peak (#11). He’s a Quality Road colt out of the Grade 1 winning mare, Dickinson. She earned her Grade 1 win on this course in the 2017 Jenny Wiley when defeating the superstar, Lady Eli. He has two full siblings that are winners on the turf, both trained by Brad Cox. Her brother, Wadsworth, is a two-time stakes winner on the grass. His debut at Kentucky Downs wasn’t great, but I’m willing to forgive and forget as he goes longer on a more traditional oval today. Power of Will (#8) is a War of Will second time starter who debuted in a different race at Kentucky Downs. While his finish was a little better than the top pick, I think the race that Chapman Peak came out of was stronger in terms of quality. The dam has produced multiple winners and War of Will earned a Grade 1 win on this course in the Maker’s Mark Mile. Bill Mott has yet to have a winner at this meet, but I do think this colt will run better in this spot. A deeper saver for me is Mortal Lock (#12), coming in from New York for George Weaver. Post 12 is no picnic, but he has paired his Beyers in his first two turf routes. He’d be a candidate to move forward in this race, but 6-1 (ML) feels too light for me. I think he’s a better play underneath in this spot, but if the odds went into the double digit range, I might be more inclined to play a little to win on him. 

Race 3:

It’s hard for me to take Positano Sunset (#1) seriously at her 6-5 morning line in this optional $$100K claiming/N3X allowance race. She’s a sprinter trying two turns for the first time in her career. Her best effort came over the summer at seven furlongs when she gave Vahva all she could handle in the Grade 3 Chicago Stakes. Her lone start at one mile came at one turn in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream where she was a well-beaten 6th. While you could argue that she just didn’t like the track in South Florida since she also ran poorly in the Forward Gal there at seven furlongs, I just don’t see her as a two turn horse at this level. Take a Stand (#3) is the one for me, getting back on the dirt for Victoria Oliver. She ran well three back at Horseshoe Indianapolis in stakes company. She was competitive in a stakes race at Ellis on the turf two back and she finished midpack in a stakes race on the synthetic at Presque Isle three weeks ago. She’s run some of her best career races in her five year old season and I think she’ll prevail with these. Peak Popularity (#2) is coming to town off of two massive wins in New York. However, both of those races came in off the turf races where she faced a combined total of three rivals in those two races. Those dominating scores could certainly be good confidence builders, but this will be a stiffer test today. 

Race 4:

Two year old fillies will go six furlongs in this $150K maiden claiming race. I’ll side with a firster in this race, making Manage Xpectations (#6) the top pick. Horses sired by Munnings are always dangerous when debuting in dirt sprints and Brendan Walsh has good numbers with first time starters in maiden claiming races. She was purchased for $70K, so the $150K claiming tag feels fair for her debut. Boutwell Time (#4) has made five career starts at varying levels. She was claimed for $50K two back when running a decent race in the slop at Churchill. She was third at this level in her most recent start, catching another sloppy surface. She’s on a fast track today for the first time since her debut and she definitely has more of a foundation than her rivals. There is some upside with this one. Rest of the World (#2) is a second time starter for John ennis. She debuted in a maiden special weight race at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. She hit the front, but faded late, losing by a length in a race that was particularly fast. Ennis’ runners tend to improve in their second time around. Despite “dropping” from maiden special weight to maiden claiming, this is a definite step up in class. She’s running for a purse that is more than double that of her debut race. 

Race 5:

The Pick-6 and the $3 All Turf Pick-3 begins with this N1X allowance race going 1 3/16 miles over the turf course. There’s an odd dynamic here as half of the runners in this race are cutting back in distance while the other half is stretching out. Graham Motion sends out a fascinating import, The Ginger Wizard (#4). He is a half to The Grey Wizard, who has multiple stakes wins at longer distances on the turf this year in his five year old campaign. His half brother broke his maiden at 12 furlongs overseas, winning by eight lengths in Ireland. The Grey Wizard came here from Ireland and ran well at 11 furlongs at Laurel in his first North American start. This Calyx colt ran a faster last race figure (based on Equibase figures) overseas. John Velasquez rides this course very well, scoring with a huge longshot on Wednesday. Interestingly enough, Motion was the trainer of both horses overseas and in the US. While this one was forward in his last two races at longer distances, I wonder if he’s going to be able to secure that position in the early stages of this race, which was important earlier in the week. It’s going to come down to price to me. I think around his 6-1 (ML) figure, I would play him. If those odds get cut in half, I’d look for other alternatives. He’s an A line play for me, but the top pick is going to be Black Iron (#8) facing winners for the first time after a gate to wire score at Kentucky Downs when making his last start. Jose Ortiz put him on the lead in that race and he never looked back, running a much better race than he did when going a mile at the beginning of the meet there. Being forward on this course has been a good thing in two turn races over the last few days of racing. Asmussen has not had a great Keeneland meet, but this horse feels like the kind of horse that could have success here. Protective (#11) is cross-entered in the Bryan Station Stakes tomorrow. I don’t care for him at all in that spot because I think that’s a brutally tough field to try the turf, and I’m not loving the one mile distance of that race for him. I don’t mind him trying the turf in this spot. It’s a decent field for the condition, but there’s no graded stakes winners for him to tussle with. He ran solid races at longer distances on the dirt. His full brother tried the turf once and didn’t run terribly, finishing a close 4th that time. They tried to get him on the grass at Saratoga this summer, but that race came off the turf, which gave him a soft spot for his lone career victory. At longer odds, he’s worth considering in this spot. 

Race 6: 

Two year old maidens will dash 6 ½ furlongs in the first leg of the Late Pick-5. This is essentially a second division of a race at this condition on Wednesday. 11 of the 12 runners in the body of this field are first time starters, and they’re going to have to deal with Ennis Town (#7) for Mike Trombetta. He ran a big race in his debut in a maiden/optional claiming race at Belmont at the Big A last month, just missing. Irad Ortiz was on board that day and he takes the return call today. He’s an A line play for me, but I do like a few of the debut runners. Voila Magic (#5) is another Asmussen runner that could be a player at the tail end of this meet. He’s a Volatile first time starter. His runners are off to a fast start as 7 of 35 of them have scored on debut in dirt sprint races. Asmussen trained that Grade 1 winner who was a winner at first asking. The dam was also a winner at first asking. She’s produced a pair of talented Louisiana breds, with Touchuponastar being the best one by a mile. There’s not a ton of Louisiana breds going for $275K at the Keeneland Sales, so expectations have been high here. Jose Ortiz taking the assignment is a positive sign. With Asmussen being cold, this might be the time to get him at decent odds. This colt is 10-1 on the morning line, and at those numbers, I’d be very interested. I’m not sold on the morning favorite, Problem Solved (#11). Brad Cox continues to dominate the trainer standings at this meet, so it’s not a surprise that his horses are receiving more attention from the wagering public. However, this runner is sired by Game Winner, whose runners have only netted one debut win in a dirt sprint in 28 tries. He’s the first foal to run from the dam Socialite, who was a winner on debut, but was injured in her second career start and never seen on track again. Obviously the West’s are interested in the success of Game Winner as a stallion, so they’re employing high percentage trainers with his offspring. He might need a start and could be more effective at two turns. I’m passing on him here. Instead, I’ll use Can’t Deny It (#12) as the third A line play in this race. He debuts for Larry Rivelli, who has great numbers with first time starters. Jareth Loveberry has yet to find the Winner’s Circle in limited opportunities at this meet, but he has won 34% of the time in 79 starts for Rivelli since 2023. Justify gets 21% winners debuting on the dirt in sprint races. The dam is an Irish bred who was trained overseas by Aidan O’Brien. This one may have a future on grass or synthetic, but I expect him to be able to on the dirt as well. 

Race 7:

We have a rare N4X allowance for three year olds and up, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. After a slow start to this meet, Wesley Ward had a pair of winners to close out the Wednesday card. This barn heats up fast and this looks like a picture perfect spot for No Nay Hudson (#9). While he is 0-4 on this course, I think he’s coming into this race as a better horse than he was for three of those losses. He was 7-1 in a strong edition of the Grade 2 Woodford here on Fall Starts Weekend. He had a brutal trip in that race and never had a chance. I think he’s figured out how to relax off the early speed, which will serve him well in a race where there are at least four horses that are gunning for that top spot. He had three strong races prior to that race and I believe he’s going to run back to those efforts today. Frankie Dettori rode Arrest Me Red for Ward to win at this distance the other day and he’s back in the saddle again today. Jean Valjean (#8) is the backup for me in this spot. Toss his last start in the off the turf, Turf Monster Stakes  at Parx and he has run some fast races this year. He ran a 42:4 half mile at Laurel three back in a 5 ½ furlong race. That course was blazing fast, but that’s still a ridiculous half mile split. I think he’s the best of the speed runners here, but he’s going to have to work hard early today.

Race 8, The $200K Myrtlewood Stakes:

The first of two stakes races this afternoon in a six furlong sprint that drew a wide open field of 12, two year old fillies. Note that White Sands (#4) and Long Neck Paula (#12) are both trained by Wesley Ward and both are cross-entered against the boys in the Bowman Mill Stakes tomorrow. White Sands has faced the boys in her last two starts at Prairie Meadows, but I have yet to see a determination if Ward is going to split up these fillies or run them both against each other in either spot. While White Sands, being a half to Jackie’s Warrior, is going to get a lot of attention from a pedigree standpoint, I much prefer Long Neck Paula. White Sands debuted at Belterra in May, which tells me all that I need to know about what Ward thinks of this filly. She could have debuted at Churchill in a race with a purse that is $100K more than the Ohio race. She dominated a weak field there and then dominated a weak field when facing the boys in stakes company at Prairie Meadows. Ward sent her to California where she became graded stakes placed by running against three boys in the Grade 2 Best Pal. He’s done a lot to enhance the breeding value of a horse that probably isn’t that great. I feel like he’d be more likely to run her against five boys tomorrow anyway. Long Neck Paula cost her connections $500K earlier this year. She’s been a handy winner two times and finished third in the Schuylerville at the Spa in between her two open length victories. She’s drawn the outside post for this race, which feels advantageous. Her dam was a Grade 3 winner as a three year old, so she feels like a filly that is starting to come into her own. Andrea (#8) is coming here from Gulfstream for Saffie Joseph after two dominating wins to start her career. She was never tested in either her maiden win at 5 ½ furlongs or her win in the Hallandale Beach Stakes going one mile on the main track. She’s been working well at Gulfstream with a few bullet works to get her ready to cut back to six furlongs here. By the slimmest of margins, the top Beyer Figure in the field belongs to Praying (#6), who scored her maiden win at Horseshoe Indianapolis in her third career start. Robert Medina’s horses tend to need a few races before they’re clicking on all cylinders, and that may have been the case with this daughter of Vekoma. After finishing second twice on the Kentucky Circuit, she ran in Indiana during the Kentucky Downs meet, winning for fun there. Her connections paid $410K for her at the OBS Sale in April, so she certainly has looked the part. John Velasquez has done well with longshots at this meet and he’s on another live one here. 

Race 9, The Grade 2 Bank of America Valley View Stakes: 

The feature race drew a highly competitive field of 16 three year old fillies. Only 12 will run in this one mile contest on the turf. For a field this size, there is not a lot of early speed signed on. Frankie Dettori has shown that he is lethal when setting a slow to moderate pace on the turf. I don’t see anyone challenging him in earnest for the early lead aboard Poolside With Slim (#2) in this race. She didn’t fire here in the spring in the Grade 2 Appalachian, but I don’t think she cared for the ground after being used hard to go 22:4 in the opening quarter that day. The course has been quite firm this week, and I think it’s playing to her strength. She wasn’t on the lead in the Winter Memories last out when making her first start since faltering in the Tepin Stakes in June. She won the Penn Oaks at Penn National in the spring, despite not setting the pace. She’s second off the layoff and I think she’s the one they’re going to have to catch. There’s a pair of French imports in this race with Opera Mundi (#1) making her first North American start and Les Reys (#4) coming back after scoring in the Winter Memories. She closed with interest at Aqueduct on the turf, but I’m not sure this course is playing to her strength right now. She ran too well in that race to be ignored for Clement, and getting Prat to ride is certainly a plus. She’s more of a backup for me in this race though. I prefer Opera Mundi, making her first start in the States for Brendan Walsh. His numbers recently with first time imports are impeccable, winning with 7 of 15 of them since 2023. He’s scored with three of his last four imports at Keeneland, winning with Minnoushka earlier this meet and winning with Cameo Performance and Coco Crush here in the spring. Gaffalione and Walsh have connected 27% of the time over the last four meets at Keeneland. I’ll also use Buttercream Babe (#8) as a backup in this spot. She’ll likely be stalking the front-runner in this race, which will give her the ability to get first run on the closers. She ran a bang up third when facing the boys two starts back at Saratoga in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes. She missed the break at Kentucky Downs when going in the Music City Stakes in her last start. I think she’s better at two turns and is another player in this strong race.

Race 10:

Fillies and mares, three and up, will go six furlongs in this maiden special weight that ends the day. Constituent (#11) for Lindsay Schultz is the pick in the nightcap. Fernando Jara takes the mount for Lindsay Schultz for her second start. She debuted in a maiden special weight at Parx last month. She was a bit slow into stride, but she was moving well late to get into 4th, just missing third and then galloping out past the winner. She came here from her Monmouth base where she’s had a pair of nice works. Jara and Schultz did some nice work together at Monmouth this summer and I think he’s going to have the filly closer to the front end in the early stages of this one. Frankie Dettori could be sitting on a big afternoon, and Moringa (#10) could be the icing on the cake for him. She changes barns for the third time after a respectable second place finish at Churchill at this level last month. Her trainer scored with a big longshot with her only other new acquisition in the last two years. Phantasmical (#9) ran once as a two year old and it was a disastrous experience at Saratoga. She’s been sidelined since that race in July of 2023. She’s been working well for Motion as she prepares to reboot her career. Her dam was a multiple graded stakes winner and three of her four other runners to race have won races. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 10-23-24: 

34/133 (25.6%), $312.10 – $2.35 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.