Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Saturday, April 12th – By Eric Solomon

The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes and the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes highlight the first actual Saturday of the 2025 Spring Meet at Keeneland. While the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile on Friday’s card was composed strictly of North American based runners, three of the nine runners entered in the Jenny Wiley are European invaders making their first North America Start. The Stonestreet Lexington Stakes is the last chance for Derby Points. However, eight of the nine runners in this race have 0 points and the lone runner with any points, only has 6 and he just ran in the Lafayette Stakes here on Monday. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with a $30K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, going about seven furlongs over the Beard Course. There’s not a lot of speed signed on for this contest and being forward on this dirt course has been a plus over the last several days. There are several runners who were cross-entered in a few different races earlier in the week, however, the majority of them did not draw into the body of those races. As a result, I think for the most part, this field will stay together. I think the tactical speed from Diver (#3) will serve him well in this race today. He’s been closer to the front in his last two starts on the Tapeta at Turfway. His lone start on the dirt came in the mud against maiden special weight types at the Big A. I think a fast track at this level, while making his third start off the layoff could be the ingredients for a maiden breaking score. Both Warp Nine (#1) and Citizen (#2) are starting to fall into the professional maiden category. Citizen is dropping from maiden special weight company to the maiden claiming ranksHe’s had several chances against better talent, so this feels like the inevitable move for him. If you draw a line through his turf race, his dirt figures are fairly steady. I prefer him over Warp Nine, who has had a habit of leaving himself too much work to do. I like horses cutting back from two turn races on the turf to this seven furlong distance, but I’m not certain that is going to be the best move for him on this course at this moment. He’s a deeper backup for me. 

Race 2:

Four year olds and up will go 6 ½ furlongs in this $40K claiming race. While Cape Trafalgar (#2) is the one to beat, I’m going to try the Laurel invader, Tenebris (#7) as the top pick in this race. He had a rough trip in an optional claiming/N2X allowance race at Laurel when going 5 ½ furlongs. I think this distance will suit him better and his running style fits the track profile. That level of competition in Maryland can get salty and he was racing for the same $40K tag in those races. I think in some ways this is a bit of class relief, while running for a better purse. Cape Trafalgar has had some issues staying sound, as he’s only making his 17th career start in his six year old season. He was purchased for $325K back in 2020 and he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He was a winner here when facing a better optional claiming/N2X field at this distance. He went to Gulfstream, and struggled in a pair of Grade 3 races. He’s running for a nice purse and maybe it’s time for his owners to be willing to move off this runner. However, this drop is a little concerning, especially when taking a short price on him. I can forgive his last effort, but I do wonder if he’s showing a little decline in form in the AM. On deeper tickets, I’ll throw in Regal Rey (#9). He came up short in an optional claiming/N2X allowance race when making his first start since August last month. He was racing on the Tapeta at Turfway, but I do think he’s better on traditional dirt. He was in good form when he went to the sidelines following a pair of wins at Ellis back in August. If he can get back to those races, he’s going to be in the mix here. 

Race 3:

The first of four races on the turf today is a maiden special weight for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. I’ll try one of the firsters in this race and make Double Velocity (#5) the top pick in this race. The dam has foaled some horses that have run well at two turns on the turf and have been competitive early on. Roger Attfield won a maiden special weight race here last spring with a debuting runner on the lawn. This filly has been working steadily in the AM at Payson Park in Florida and she’ll get Jose Ortiz in the saddle for her debut. Theravada (#9) ran a strong race on debut at Gulfstream at the end of February. She’s the first foal to make it to track from the mare Cambodia, who was a multiple graded stakes winner on the turf. She also finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf back in 2018. She has another wide post to navigate, but of the horses with racing experience, her effort was definitely one of the better ones. On deeper tickets, I’ll throw in another first timer with Hibiscus (#1). Josie Carroll has good numbers with first time starters, although all of her recent success with debuting runners has come in sprint races. This filly has been sharp in the mornings, firing a 46:4 workout on the turf at Palm Meadows at the end of March. She’s a ¾ brother to Tapwater, who is a multiple graded stakes placed mare on the turf. 

Race 4:

$80K N2L claimers, will be going a little over seven furlongs here. This is yet another interesting Keeneland head-scratcher where three of the 11 runners entered in this spot are coming back after over a year on the sidelines. I think Goldbrick (#3) is a horse in this race that will relish the longer, one turn distance of this race. This will be his first start where he’s running with a claiming tag and his first start since being gelded. He ran his race last time at the Fair Grounds, he just ran into a horse that turned in a monster performance. With the exception of a tough race at Oaklawn in January where he was on the pace at a time in the meet that outside closers had a distinct edge, he typically always shows up on race day. I think he fits well with this group. It hasn’t been the most productive meet for Wesley Ward, but he does send out Tunisian Spring (#8), who looks to have a decent shot in this race. He’s competed on the dirt three times in seven career starts. He broke his maiden going seven furlongs on a fast track here in October of 2023. He caught a sloppy course here last spring where he was a beaten favorite. He’s been away since July, but he’s been working well. On deeper tickets, Caper’s Holiday (#1) is a horse to consider. He was sharp three starts ago, which was the last time he competed on a fast dirt track. That race came at this condition when going six furlongs at Churchill in November. He finished 4th in a race on a sloppy course and a turf sprint in his last two tries in New Orleans. He’s coming off a three month layoff, but his recent works have been quite sharp. The final furlong could be a question mark, but if he stays at or above his 10-1 morning line figure, I’d be willing to consider taking that chance. 

Race 5:

The Early Pick-5 wraps up with a N1X allowance race for three year olds going one mile. I think Mesero (#7) has a big chance in this race. He showed he had some quality in his first three tries on the dirt. He broke his maiden on a wet track on debut and then ran in a pair of graded stakes races where he finished off the board, but he didn’t embarrass himself either. Romans moved him to the turf where he was rolling late, finishing third, beaten less than a length at that level that afternoon. He matched strides with the even money favorite while widest of all on the gallop out. He’s a half to the multiple graded stakes winning turfer, Bleecker Street. He might need this race off the bench, but I think he could be closing well on this course to get up in time here. Assertiveness (#9) was very good when making his second career start, which was his first off a layoff and his first on the turf. He was much sharper than he was on debut when he ran on a sloppy course at the Spa in an off the turf race. He was eased up when it was apparent that he was not going to get into third in that four horse affair. The dam was very good on the turf, so it wasn’t surprising to see her run a better race on the lawn. Ready for Peace (#5) is another horse that I could think about using in this spot. Luis Saez might have been a little over aggressive when riding him last out at Gulfstream in a race at this level where he broke from the outside stall. His three prior efforts on the turf prior to that start were solid, including a third place finish behind Tiztastic in the Juvenile Mile Stales at Kentucky Downs this past summer. He’s making his third start of this current form cycle, so there’s reason to believe this could be a spot where we see a new top speed figure. I can forgive his last, but I’m hopeful others might not be as willing to do so

Race 6: 

On paper, this optional claiming/N2X allowance race feels like a showdown between Speak Easy (#3) and Discreet Mischief (#4). I think these two runners from high percentage outfits are both high ceiling horses that are trying to figure some things out. I’m going to side with Discreet Mischief in this spot. He was excellent on this oval last spring before falling off form in two tries at Churchill. He made his return to the races at the Fair Grounds last month where he cleared the N1X condition while grinding out a win. While I’m a little curious as to why Manny Franco is riding him instead of Flavien Prat, I think he can outlast his foe in this spot. Speak Easy has yet to run back to his huge debut last year at Gulfstream. He was good enough to clear the N1X condition at the Spa this summer, but he was cooked in the Allen Jerkens. He went to the sidelines after that and was solid when narrowly losing at this level there last out. His last two works have been  a little sluggish though. Perhaps it’s by design, especially if that comeback effort took a little extra starch out of him. He’ll need to be firing on all cylinders to beat the top pick. 

Race 7: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a maiden special weight contest for three year olds, sprinting 6 ½ furlongs. As the course was drying out on Thursday, we saw several gate to wire winners on the dirt. That should favor the Brad Cox second time starter, Valiant Humor (#1). He ran well on debut at the Fair Grounds, leading most of the way before tiring in the final furlong. He adds a half of a furlong today, but getting that foundational race seems much more important. Prat has been riding very well at this meet, especially when riding for Cox. Modus Bestia (#12) ships here from Southern California after a strong debut, but a disappointing second career try. Perhaps he wants nothing to do with the two turn trip. He looked very comfortable when working over this course last week. He was competitive when battling three wide throughout the better part of his debut. These are the two principal players in this race, but there could be an aggressive pace battle with both of them wearing each other out. I’m going to use both, because they could simply be better than these, however, I’m going to try Nantucket (#10) on top for Rodolphe Brisset. He debuted on a synthetic course where he was gaining ground late. His figure came back a little slow, but there’s room to improve when switching over to the dirt. He’s a half to the Grade 1 winner. Express Train. Like many of these, there are high expectations for him, so if the two two start to tire in the final furlong, he might be the one that can take advantage of that. On deeper tickets, there are four first time starters in this race, and some of them are likely to take some wagering attention. Big Truzz (#7) is the one that I’d back up with in this spot. Justify is quickly becoming one of the best sires in our game. He has had a lot of success with turf runners and his dirt runners that debut in sprint races are winning 19% of the time. The works are solid for a barn that isn’t necessarily known for winning at first asking. 

Race 8:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in this N1X allowance race. With the exception of the Jessamine Stakes last year, Miss Lonelle (#9) ran very well on the turf. She was second behind a nice Brad Cox filly when competing at this level at Churchill in the fall. She came back at Turfway where she ran two poor races. Verity was an easy winner last out and that filly came back to win the Beaumont Stakes here earlier in the week. I like her stretching back out to two turns in this, the third race of her current form cycle. Wayne Catalano is a very capable trainer, so as a bomb in this wide open race, I’m willing to roll the dice. Al Jafara (#11) is one of two first time imports for Chad Brown on this card. Like Miss Lonelle, this filly was excluded from a race at this same condition yesterday. However, the racing office opened another division, allowing both runners to compete. Brown has won at a 23% with foreign shippers switching to his barn for the first time after six months or more on the shelf. (12-52). Many of these horses have gone to be graded stakes winners for this barn. While the percentage is solid, the ROI is not, as the average win payout on these 12 winners is a mere $4.40. 20 of the 40 horses in this sample that didn’t win were lower than 3-1 odds. Going into Friday’s card, Brown was still looking for his first winner at this meet. Interestingly enough, five of his six starters were dirt horses, and his lone turf starter finished second. At the end of the day, I really don’t want to be knocked out of a Pick-4 or Pick-5 sequence because I didn’t cover an unknown Chad Brown runner. She’s strictly a backup for me in this race, unless I’m finding evidence that she’s sitting on a big race. If I’m taking a foreign shipper, I’m more likely to play Bessie Abott (#8) for Mark Casse. She was a winner on debut when coming from off the pace at Galway in Ireland. She’s been away since August and now is campaigned by Mark Casse, who is 15% (4-26) with foreign shippers off the layoff. She’s been working well in the morning and this barn is doing well this week here. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes:

I have a full horse by horse analysis for this race linked below on the ITM Blog, as I have done with every North American Derby Points race this year. This race is unlikely to produce a Derby starter this year, but these could be types of horses that are eyeing the Preakness Stakes in five weeks. Both Rolando (#4) and Touchy (#9)ran here on Monday in the Lafayette Stakes. Perhaps the plan was for both horses to run in both races, at least prior to the Lafayette being moved to Monday. I don’t see either runner as a threat in this race, but I think Rolando is a major pace player and if he defects, it does change the way I see this race. Either way, Hypnus (#8) is going to be my top pick. I’m expecting a better effort from him after some tough races against deeper fields. Both Gosger (#6) and Praetor (#7) will definitely be helped if Rolando stays in the barn. They both want to be forward and both are trying two turns for the first time today. If Rolando does run, I would likely downgrade both of them a little bit, while maybe upgrading the California invader, Bullard (#3) some. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2025-kentucky-derby-the-grade-3-stonestreet-lexington-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 10, The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes:

This is a very tough Grade 1 contest for fillies and mares, going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. I’m not convinced that Kehoe Beach (#7) is going to be able to wire this field, especially on a course that will probably be a little less than firm on Saturday. I’m going to try the globe-trotting mare, Choisya (#2) on top. She was very good in a pair of Group 2 turf races at Meydan over the winter. The course over there is closer to an American course than many of the European courses she was running on.It took her a little while to get her first win, doing so in her 9th career start. However, since that win, she has four wins in her last 10 trips to the track. This feels a little experimental for Simon Crisford, who remains the trainer of record. Luis Saez taking the mount feels positive as well. Be Your Best (#5) narrowly defeated Sacred Wish (#8) in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf race back in January at Gulfstream. However, Be Your Best had a much easier trip and still only held on by the slimmest of margins. I don’t think it would take much for Sacred Wish to turn the tables on her rival. She was the Grade 1 winner of the Matriarch at Del Mar two starts. She has two wins in her last nine starts, but five of her six losses have been by two lengths or less. She always shows up and gives her all. On deeper tickets, I’ll include the favorite and a longshot. Excellent Truth (#1) has much more of a foundation under her belt that Chad Brown’s other first time import in the 8th race. She’s a Group 3 winner and she has run well in other graded races. She figures to be the one to beat, but there’s enough question marks to at least consider the possibility that she might not get the run of the race from her rail draw. From a longshot perspective,. This could a spot where we see Poolside With Slim (#3) take a step forward. She made her first start of the year in the Honey Fox last month at Gulfstream. She ran a solid race to be third that day. She was a winner on this course in the Valley View three back, so getting on her favorite course, could help accelerate her growth as a four year old. 

Race 11:

The card ends with a $50K starter allowance race for three year old fillies going 7 furlongs and 184 feet on the Beard Course. All eyes are going to be on Sherbini (#8), who finds a nice spot to make her three year old debut. She is the class of this field, earning a Grade 1 placing in the Spinaway and finishing in the money in both the Schuylerville Stakes and the Rags to Riches Stakes. She was good as a two year old, but this is not an easy distance for a horse coming off a layoff. Zaghruta (#10) runs for Brad Cox and gets Flavien Prat in the irons. She was a winner when dropping into an optional maiden claiming company last out at the Fair Grounds. That race made her eligible for this spot to where she’ll face winners for the first time. I like the cutback in distance for her in this spot, despite the fact that she was a winner in her last start which came at 1 1/16 miles. I think she has enough tactical speed to stay within reach of some of the cheaper speed in this race. I expect her to be finishing the best here, which is why I see her as the best bet on the card. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 4-9-25: 

11/39 (28.2%), $81.82 – $2.10 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.