There have been a total of 10 horses that have won both this race and the Kentucky Derby, however it’s been a long time since a horse has pulled off this feat. Strike the Gold in 1991 was the last runner to do this. He stands in good company with names like Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, and Spectacular Bid to name a few. The potential Derby favorite, Paladin, was pointing toward this race before an injury derailed those plans last week. A field of nine has been assembled for this Grade 1 contest, with two of the runners, cross-entered in the Wood Memorial in New York this afternoon. It appears that Ocelli is off to New York, while Ottinho will represent Chad Brown in this race. Further Ado, who was a dazzling maiden breaker on this course in the fall, is the morning line favorite for this nine furlong test. Post time for this race is scheduled for 6:22 (EDT).
Keeneland, Saturday 4/4/26, Race 11: The G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes:
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – Talkin (10-1 ML): He showed up at Saratoga on closing weekend and ran a strong race on debut to break his maiden. He came back to run second to Napoleon Solo, who ran a big race to score in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. He bypassed the Breeders’ Cup and waited for the Remsen where his post and trip were way too much for him to overcome in his first try at two turns. I thought he was a sneaky horse in the Fountain of Youth before he scratched out of that race in favor of the Tampa Bay Derby a week later. When looking at some of the tough trips in that race, he seemed to have the run of the race. However, after looking comfortable while stalking the longshot leader, Redland Rebels, he failed to quicken when the real running began and he finished an uninspiring 5th. Patrick Biancone, who trained Redland Rebels, suggested the rain prior to the race may have changed the complexion of the track, which could have favored the outer lanes. However, Redland Rebels was not great in the Arkansas and The Puma validated the winning form from that race when he nearly won the Florida Derby last weekend. While he might not have been fully cranked for that effort, I needed to see more from him to believe that he can compete at this level. While this is not the strongest field, he’s tough for me to get behind today.
2 – Class President (7-2 ML, 15-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 20-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): Todd Pletcher had some mixed results last weekend as Renegade was a very impressive Arkansas Derby winner, while Nearly was pretty disappointing in the Florida Derby. He’s looking to strengthen his Derby portfolio with this Uncle Mo colt whose win in the Rebel should all but guarantee his spot in the starting gate in Louisville in four weeks. The Rebel was a bit of a strange race as seven of the nine runners lined up while vying for the lead when going into the first turn. He sat comfortably in the two path, outside of Litmus Test, but inside of everyone else. He tracked a solid pace and took over the lead from Litmus Test on the turn. What impressed me the most about his performance was how he battled back and was able to repel the challenge of Silent Tactic, who loomed boldly at the top of the stretch. That was a strong effort from a horse that only had two starts prior to that race. He’s been working steadily in Florida in preparation for his final start before the Derby. In the Fountain of Youth last weekend, Commandment and the Puma were the runners that didn’t need to win to gain entry into the Derby whereas the win was much more critical for Chief Wallabee and Nearly. I previously thought that needing the points could be seen as a slight advantage for those horses, but I’m starting to alter my thinking a bit. Having the points in the bag could be seen as an advantage, since the rider might be able to avoid being overly aggressive. Reagan’s Honor figures to try to grab the lead in his stakes debut, but Johnny V. should be able to get this one comfortable based on what the horse is telling him. I think he’s going to sit the best trip in this race and I think he’s going to be the one to beat.
Update: Shortly after posting this article this morning, Todd Pletcher announced that he will scratch Class President out of this race. The comment to Dave Grening was that Pletcher didn’t like the way he went this morning, but he’s not taking him off the Derby Trail yet)
3 – Great White (15-1 ML, 45-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 200-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): John Ennis sends out this son of Volatile, who is coming off a win in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes in his most recent start. He stayed close to the pace in that race and he was able to kick clear at the top of the stretch and hold off the late bid from Fulleffort, who came back to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks two weeks ago. This was an interesting decision by Ennis to wait for this spot, which is definitely tougher. It’s also contested on a traditional dirt course, which will be a first for this gelding. Volatile was a very good sprinter, and his horses have fared better in one turn races. His dirt runners are winning 16% of the time in sprints and only 12% of the time in routes. He’s had three runners compete at nine furlongs and none of them were competitive in those races. This horse is already an overachiever, but I think this is going to be a very tough spot for him.
4 – Reagan’s Honor (5-2 ML, 25-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 60-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): There are a handful of runners that have run big races at the Fair Grounds over the winter that are competing here on Opening Weekend at Keeneland. This Honor A. P. colt for Cherie DeVaux is one of them. He ran a big race to score over Ocelli when making his second career start back in January. That was his first try at two turns and he led every step of the way to beat a full field that afternoon. DeVaux resisted temptation to try him in the Risen Star or another stakes race and she ran him in an allowance race in February instead. It’s important to note that race came against five older runners, including a next out winner (Vamos Carlitos) who he handily defeated. That was a big time effort and a serious Beyer Speed Figure for that effort. He led every step of that way in that race as well. If we’re noticing a definitive speed bias in the dirt races here on Friday or Saturday, I do think he’s worth upgrading. However, he’s going to have to compete without Lasix today. He’s likely going to be pressed for the lead from Creole Chrome who is breaking to his outside. Further Ado and Moonstrocity both have some early speed too, so I don’t think he’s going to be able to just lope along on an uncontested lead. There are things to like here, and he might prove to simply be better than these horses. However, he’s the one that I’m going to try to stand against in this race.
5 – Creole Chrome (8-1 ML, 90-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s): This Louisiana bred is another Fair Grounds invader that has made a splash in New Orleans over the winter. He’s done all of his work up to this mount in state bred races. He’s coming off a strong, front-running win in a state bred stakes race going 1 mile and 70 yards in his last start. That was his first try at two turns and he certainly passed that test, pairing his Beyer from his allowance win in a sprint a month earlier. While he could be set to take another step forward, the difference in competition from a state bred stakes race and a Grade 1 race is night and day. While I certainly respect the shot, I have the same concerns about him getting the nine furlong trip as I have with Great White, who is also sired by Volatile. He is proven on the dirt and his dam has produced a runner that is graded stakes placed at this distance. While I think he has a better shot than Great White in this race, I worry that the class of this field is going to be what does him in.
6 – Further Ado (8-5 ML, 25-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 20-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): The morning line favorite certainly had his connections Derby dreaming after his monstrous score on this oval last fall when making his first start at two turns. His two one turn efforts prior to that race were fairly ordinary, despite facing decent fields at the Spa. He went into the gate as the 2-1 favorite in his thirds career start and he was breathtaking, winning that maiden race by 20 lengths. His effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club was not nearly as impressive, as he scored in workmanlike fashion. The form from that race has been questionable, so I wasn’t sure what to expect from him in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. He was pretty much three wide every step of the way, but he was still digging in and battling with The Puma. He was bumped a bit in the stretch, but I think The Puma was the better horse that day. That one improved three weeks later when just missing in the Florida Derby. I think it makes sense that we’ll see a better version of this Gun Runner colt, especially when getting back to his favorite course here at Keeneland. I wasn’t sure what his trajectory was going to be this spring, but I do think he’s trending up for this race.
7 – Ocelli (30-1 ML): All reports are that he will be scratched from this race in favor of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct today.
8 – Moonstrocity (30-1 ML): Jena Antonucci sends out this maiden son of Tiz the Law for his third career start. While clearly he must be doing well in order to be considered for this race, I’ve seen nothing from his performance on the track that would make me believe that he’s going to be competitive at this level.
9 – Ottinho (20-1 ML, 300-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): After drawing Post 11 for the Wood Memorial, Chad Brown called an audible with this Quality Road colt that has been based in New York over the winter. He ran well on New Year’s Eve when breaking his maiden at this same nine furlong distance at the Big A. He came back in the Withers Stakes in February where he didn’t have a great trip. There are plenty of potential excuses for that race, starting with the disruption in training leading up to that race. The Withers had to be rescheduled due icy cold weather and a big snowstorm that disrupted the northeast in late January. He was forced to take up twice going into the first turn while trying to establish position, including some interference from his stablemate. Flavien Prat is scheduled to get the mount today as Jose Lezcano rode him for the first time in the Withers. Brown adds blinkers today, and I do think this horse is capable of improving. It appears that he’ll break from Post 8, which is a little bit of an upgrade from post 11, which is what he’d have to overcome in the Wood. He’s not going to be 20-1 in this race, but if he is a longer price than horses like Talkin, Great White, and Creole Chrome, I’d be willing to take him as a longshot.
The Verdict: 2-6-9
I think we saw a lot of tenacity from Class President (#2) when he was a gutsy winner of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. The horse he beat, Silent Tactic, came back to run another strong race when he finished second to Renegade in the Arkansas Derby last week. I think there’s some speed that could be setting the pace in front of him that I don’t trust. I’m expecting him to get the best trip in the race and that may be enough for him to pull off the mild upset.
Further Ado (#6) is the morning line favorite in this spot, and that number is still based upon his huge effort here in the fall. Since then he has not been able to find that brilliance when competing at Churchill and Tampa. However, I do think his effort in the Tampa Bay Derby last month was encouraging. The Puma came back with a big effort to validate the form of that race. I’d expect him to be more fit for his second start of the year today, while facing a field that is not as strong as it was projected to be just a week ago.
The live longshot for me in this race is Ottinho (#9) for Chad Brown. He’s starting at 20-1, but that number feels like a pipe dream. His Withers Stakes was not good, but there were things before and during that race that were less than ideal for him. The plan was Aqueduct, so pulling the audible here is risky. However, I think he’s the horse at longer odds in this race that has the most upside.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Westgate or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
