Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 6/6/26 – By Eric Solomon

The first card in the month of June at Monmouth is an eight race program. New Jersey bred sprinters will be featured both days this weekend with the Spruce Fir Handicap going this afternoon for fillies and mares and the John J. Reilly Handicap carded for tomorrow. Only one of the eight races on the program will be run on the turf this afternoon, meaning that there will be no $3 All-Turf Pick-3 wager offered. The rails for that race will be set at 36 Feet. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

Next weekend is the signature handicapping tournament of the year at Monmouth Park, the $2,000 Pick Your Prize Handicapping Challenge. Brian Skirka does a fantastic job year in and year out with this and all of the other contests that Monmouth offers. Registration information is linked below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/2000-pick-your-prize-handicapping-challenge/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start off the day with an $8K-$7K N1Y race for older runners going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. PArt of the reason Juan Avila has been so sharp first off the claim is how he’s been spotting his horses. Denying (#5) was a solid third place in his last start at Tampa when facing an open $6,250 claiming group. Avila claimed him from that spot and brings him to the Jersey Shore where he’ll be running with an $8K tag, yet still getting class relief. He is better than most of these and should be right in the mix. I’d be more bullish on him if there was a little more early speed signed on for this race. However, I still believe he has the best chance to win. Brave Bear (#2) wheels right back after beating beaten $5K claimers in his last start. Since that race carried a $5K claiming tag, he’s still eligible for this N1Y condition at this higher tag. He went to the front last weekend and never looked back. I have to imagine that Luis Rivera Jr. is going to try to follow the same formula this afternoon. 

Race 2:

Jorge Delgado won the first baby race of the meet with a $1.4 million purchase and he’s looking to score in the second two year old contest as he has two runners set to debut in this 4 ½ furlong maiden allowance race. There are some solid debut sires and some horses in this race with some precocious pedigrees. Creative Thinker (#2) is a half to Little Ni, who was a smashing debut winner at Delaware as a two year old. She’s sired by Mind Control, who already has a debut winner from his freshman crop of runners. He was a Grade 1 winner at two, three, and six years old and he was a perfect 2-2 on the Monmouth dirt. While her trainer, Sergio Rabadan, is not known for winning with first time starters, I think this one has a decent shot in this race. The favorite is Madeline Swann (#6), who is one of two runners being sent out by Delgado. She’s sired by the 2017 Haskell winner, Girvin, who gets 22% winners with his debuting two year olds in dirt sprint races. The dam’s best runner to race was Amy’s Challenge, who was a 17 length winner in her debut as a two year old at Canterbury. She would go on to win multiple stakes races and earn a placing in multiple Grade 1 dirt sprint races. Amo Racing USA LLC also owns Delgado’s first baby winner of the meet and they paid $450K for this filly. Midnight Voodoo (#4) is also worth considering in this race. She’s a New Jersey bred daughter of Sea Wizard, and while he doesn’t cover a ton of mares, 33% (8-24) of his babies have won on debut when racing in dirt sprint races. Eddie Owens trained many of those Sea Wizard runners and he’ll send out this filly while in search of his first visit to the Winner’s Circle at this meet. 

Race 3:

A field of seven is entered for this optional $20K claiming/$20K starter allowance sprint. This race is also restricted to horses that have never won three times. I’m having trouble finding a viable alternative to the favorite, Complex Music (#7) in this spot. He was third against a sharper starter allowance group when going seven furlongs at Parx last month. He’s making his second start off the layoff, which has been a good angle for this barn, which has been struggling to win races in 2026. When Paco Lopez has been away, Luis Rivera Jr. has been getting a lot of the better mounts here and he’s been making the most of those opportunities, winning with 9 of 42 starters so far. He’ll get the assignment today. The backup for me in this race is Charlie’s Express (#2). He was claimed in January by Silvino Ramirez and has been sidelined since. This barn is sharp first off the claim, but their runners tend to need a race before we see their best. He was sharp last summer, but his form tailed off in the colder months. He has efforts from 2025 that are good enough to win this race, but it has been awhile since we have seen that horse, so I’ll proceed with some caution here. 

Race 4:

$10K maiden claimers will go a mile and seventy yards here. While both One Bid (#2) and Lumber Legacy (#3) are coming off stronger efforts, I prefer Beck’s Dreamer (#4) in this group of professional maidens. He didn’t have the best of trips last month when making his local debut. He was steadied in behind runners while racing into the first turn and he was stuck in traffic going into the second turn./ He ran on well enough to be 4th, but he’s proven that he’s more capable than that. In a race where I wouldn’t be surprised if One Bid and Lumber Legacy regress off their latest effort, I think he moves forward and graduates from the maiden ranks this afternoon. Lumber Legacy is the one I want as the backup in this spot. He has two decent efforts when going two turns on the dirt. He runs for a sharp barn that wins a lot of races at this level, so there are things to like. However, I’m expecting him to be a short price in this spot, and there’s enough uncertainty in his running lines to try to find better value elsewhere. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-4 starts off with beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race going a mile and 70 yards over the main track. Duck Duck Goose (#1) is a three year old that has found the Winner’s Circle twice in his career, whereas the other six runners are still eligible for the N2L condition. Final Joke (#3) is already set to make his 4th start at this meet. He broke his maiden with $12,500-$10,500 maiden claimers here on 5/16. He came back on Memorial Day to face beaten $16K-$14K claimers on Memorial Day. That race was contested over a sloppy course and he had a wide trip, which certainly could be excuses for a dull effort that afternoon. He drops in class for a barn that has seven winners from 18 starters after the first month of racing. Deportivo (#2) is also worth considering in this spot. He has enough tactical speed to keep Duck Duck Goose honest on the front end. He tends to be a horse that is consistent, but he does struggle to win. He’s probably better suited for underneath in the vertical exotics, but his consistency does mean something in a race where there are many with little upside. 

Race 6:

For the lone turf race of the day, there’s not a ton of turf form or turf pedigrees to go off for this beaten $40K-$30K claimer. I’m not going to get cute here, and I’ll just lean into Bossy Dish (#6) on most of my tickets. She seems to be placed at the right levels she ships here from New York for Rudy Rodriguez. She has four career starts on the turf and the only bad effort was caused by a rough stumble at the break. She ran well against a better group in New York last out, and today she’ll make her third start off the layoff while getting some class relief. She feels like the most likely winner in this spot. Dakota Cam (#8) will break from the outside stall for her second career start on the grass. Her first turf try came last September at Laurel where she ran a career top speed figure. She wasn’t terrible in the slop a few weeks ago when she was the beaten favorite in a lower level race. This feels like a spot for her to put in a better effort. The 6-1 morning line figure is appealing to me in this race and if the top pick gets hammered at the windows and the odds disparity widens between the two runners, I’d definitely start to consider this one more.

Race 7, The $75K Spruce Fir Handicap:

A full field of 12 New Jersey bred fillies and mares are scheduled to sprint six furlongs in the feature this afternoon. I think Howler (#5) is a candidate to run them off their feet in this spot. There’s no denying that this daughter of Irish War Cry has had a speed and fade problem throughout her career. However, she’s making her second start off the layoff and her first sart on the dirt as a four year old. Cathal Lynch tried her on grass in a tough open N2X allowance race at Laurel in her last start. She had nothing left for the stretch run in that race, but I’m not sure grass is going to be her thing. I think she’s quick enough to set the tempo in a race where she could be tough to run down. Summer’s Comin (#7) comes back to Monmouth for Mike Dini in the best form of her career. She had a productive meet at Tampa where she had several strong efforts that would be competitive at this level. She ended her meet there with a gate to wire allowance score when going seven furlongs. My only knock on her is that I think the six furlong distance of this race might not be her best. However, I like where she’s at and she was good enough to score in this race last year.  I think she’s a good fit here once again. Mia’s Crusade (#4) is a seven year old mare that typically makes her first start of the year in this race. She was a winner here two back but she was no match for Summer’s Comin last year. She tailed off at the end of 2025, so there’s a question about how many competitive races she has left in the tank. She’s banked over a half million dollars though and her best is good enough to score here. However, she’s a tough sell for me at 7-2 (ML). I see her as more of a deeper saver. There could be some value in playing her stablemate, Jewel of the Ocean (#10), who is also owned by Prancing Horse Farm LLC. Her first four starts were really good, but her last two efforts in State Bred Handicap company where she was not permitted to receive Lasix weren’t nearly as sharp. There is talent there and I believe the distance suits her well. At 10-1 on the morning line, she’d be a more enticing value play. 

Race 8:

The nightcap is an optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year olds and up, sprinting six furlongs. Three Zero (#7) is going to take money in this spot, but shipping him here seems like an odd move to me. He clearly is a fan of the Tapeta at Gulfstream as he has finished first or second in 15 of 20 career starts there, banking over $117K there. He’s had some success on the turf as well, but a fast dirt track seems to be his least favorite surface to compete on. I respect Carlos David, but this one is not for me today. I’ll plan to primarily use two in this race, giving the preference to La Frost (#6) for Terri Pompay. He broke his maiden on debut in this course back in August. He was given some time off and he resurfaced for his second try at Tampa in December. He was away slow that day and was left with a lot of work to do in a race at this level. He closed well to be 4th on a course that can be hard to close over. He returns today and while I don’t love the long gaps between races, I do think the barn is still high on the gelding. He adds blinkers for the first time today and should fit well here, assuming he gets out of the gate smoothly. Guapo Again (#1) moves up in class after a strong effort with starter allowance company in his last start. He’s been sharp since Michael Simone claimed him at Tampa a few months ago. His only dull effort in that time span came at Charles Town in a 6 ½ furlong race at this level. He broke poorly in that race and had to go wide on the second turn over that bull ring course. He likes to be up front and that race was contested at two turns. I’m good to completely toss that effort. Even though he’s a seven year old gelding, he’s been running some of the better races of his career over the last two months. The presence of Cold Feet (#4) might make his task a bit harder in this race, but I still respect his form too much to not use him. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 17/71 (23.9%), $105.90 ($1.49 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet