Derby Preview
An open Derby that may yet prove better than it initially looks on paper. There’s probably no superstar in this field on what we’ve seen so far, but several of these have the potential to emerge as one with a victory here.
#1 Action – Wayne Lordan/Aidan O’Brien – a Frankel half-brother to last year’s winner Lambourn. He has some very solid form as juvenile when placed back-to-back behind 2000 Guineas winner Bow Echo and French Derby runner up Hawk Mountain in Stakes contests, and he had Benvenuto Cellini behind in the second of those contests. He was below his best when well beaten at odds-on at Sandown on his seasonal debut but ran a lot better from the front in the Dante last time out behind Item, though he was easily swept aside in the end. Bred to stay and shapes like he might but not guaranteed on striding, with his peak cadence being the highest in the field. Can carry his head awkwardly.
#2 Alderman – Pat Dobbs/Richard Hannon – three-race maiden who comes from a yard that isn’t known for high-class middle-distance horses. Hard to see him doing anything here with nearly 30lbs of improvement to find.
#3 Ancient Egypt – David Egan/Charlie Johnston – 1.1 million guineas yearling who mopped up a couple of minor events on his first two starts before beating just one rival home in the Royal Lodge at the end of last season. Showed that run to be all wrong when powering away to win the Listed Newmarket Stakes on his only start this season, staying on strong to beat two rivals rated in the 90s. A likeable sort who should stay, and the time of his last win wasn’t bad at all. Needs to prove himself on soft ground, though, and maybe lacks the acceleration of a Derby winner.
#4 A Taste Of Glory – Jamie Spencer/Andrew Balding – won a handicap off a mark of 80 but beaten miles in the Lingfield Derby trial. Failed to beat a rival in two runs in Stakes company and, while he may manage that here, it’s hard to see him making any impact.
#5 Balzac – Silvestre De Sousa/Jane Chapple-Hyam – promising type but well held in the Lingfield Derby trial and the Blue Riband. He should stay but loads to find.
#6 Bay Of Brilliance – Hector Crouch/Ralph Beckett – staying juvenile at lower levels and excelled himself on seasonal debut when just touched off by Maltese Cross in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Quickened up sharply to lead there and maybe left himself a bit vulnerable off a lay-off against a talented rival who was race fit but still clocked the fastest final furlong. Lovely pedigree to stay and should improve a lot for that first run. Extremely interesting runner from top yard with extra ground here looking likely to suit.
#7 Benvenuto Cellini – Ryan Moore/Aidan O’Brien – favourite in the Group 1 Futurity last year but could only manage third behind stablemates Hawk Mountain and Action. The ground was possibly a bit soft for him there and return at Chester in a known trial when landing short odds by a wide margin was much more like it. Time was good and quickened which is often a key trait of a Derby winner. Looks the most likely stayer in the field on striding and looks like the best horse at this stage; few negatives unless the ground is extremely bad.
#8 Christmas Day – Ronan Whelan/Aidan O’Brien – looked a stayer as a juvenile when landing back-to-back contests including a Group 3 before returning with a win at Leopardstown in the Ballysax Stakes with Pierre Bonnard behind. Made favourite for the Dante on the back of that but ultimately didn’t have the speed to go with the front two, Item and Action, merely plugging on having raced closer to the stands side rail than the first two. Should enjoy returning to softer ground here and shapes like a stayer, although striding isn’t conclusive.
#9 Item – Colin Keane/Andrew Balding – low key start to his career with wins at lower levels but stepped forward significantly when thrown into the deep end in the Dante, still green but quickening to lead inside the final furlong and powering clear late on, recording a fast time in the process. Very little to find to hit the rating of a typical Derby winner and comes from arguably the best trial. Striding and pedigree are borderline for trip, while soft ground is also an unknown. Clearly a very talented horse, however.
#10 James J Braddock – Dylan Brown McMonagle/Joseph O’Brien – smart juvenile who has improved again this year. Clearly needed his first run but improved again to beat Pierre Bonnard at Leopardstown, quickening up well and running on really nicely to lead close home. Needs to improve but is lightly raced enough to do so, although his stamina for this trip is questionable on striding and pedigree.
#11 Maltese Cross – Tom Marquand/William Haggas – narrow winner of a Novice on his final start of last season and his first race of this season (good time), before stepping up to win the Lingfield Derby Trial last time out, quickening clear with Bay Of Brilliance and showing a fine attitude to fend that rival off. ‘Classic’ Derby profile and looks almost certain to stay, while he also represents a top yard and likely has much more to come. Hard to see him out of the frame.
#12 Pierre Bonnard – Christophe Soumillon/Aidan O’Brien – winter Derby favourite following a strong juvenile campaign but bombed out badly on his return in the Ballysax behind Christmas Day and James J Braddock. Ran much better on his most recent start in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown but was again behind James J Braddock and did not impress with his attitude there, looking reluctant to go past his stablemate and hanging in behind initially, carrying head awkwardly. Finally consented to go by but nailed close home. Has the ability to win this and very likely to stay on breeding, although stamina is inconclusive on striding. Brought along slowly and may be peaking at the right time, while the booking of Soumillon – who has won both starts on him, including at Group 1 level – catches the eye.
#13 Poker – Rowan Scott/Karl Burke – three-race maiden who will struggle to recoup any of his 4,300,000gns purchase price even with prizemoney down to tenth place.
#14 Rebel Rocker – Rob Hornby/Faye Bramley – hails from a small yard. A winner on debut on synthetics and ran nicely at this track last time out behind one who has been beaten since, with Balzac behind. Very difficult to see him making an impact here unless the extra two furlongs brings about remarkable improvement.
Verdict: An open looking affair. Item brings latent potential into the contest but he may end up being better over shorter. Pierre Bonnard clearly has the ability on his best form but stablemate Benvenuto Cellini is the selection provided the ground isn’t too bad. A high-class sort already, he has plenty of score to improve again and has very few chinks in his armour. Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance look the most likely of the home team to cause the upset.
Weekend Preview
- All times GMT.
There’s a good supporting card at Epsom this Saturday as you would expect, although not quite at the level of the Belmont Derby undercard. Efforts have been made to improve that situation this year, however, with the Coronation Cup (more on that later) being moved from Friday and the addition of the Group 3 Tattenham Corner Stakes (13:30), which was formerly run at Haydock as the John of Gaunt Stakes.
Run over the intermediate seven-furlong trip, this year’s race has attracted a small but select field, with the standout being Never So Brave. A winner of the City Of York Stakes – the only seven-furlong Group 1 for older horses run in the UK – last season, he escapes a penalty for that and should be very hard to beat provided he can overcome the widest stall.
Next up is the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 over a mile for fillies and mares. The admirable Sparks Fly will surely go well here following a fine effort behind 2025 Derby winner Lambourn last time out, particularly if the ground is soft. Shes Perfect, who was first past the post in the French 1000 Guineas last year, and Pacific Mission, runner up in last year’s Juvenile Fillies Turf (14:05), add some nice depth to the race.
The 15:15 sees 20 runners go to post for the ‘Dash’, a five furlong event run at Epsom’s downhill track, ensuring that it is the fastest five furlongs anywhere in the world. Stone of Folca currently holds the track and world record for the distance when recording a staggering time of 53.69 seconds in 2012, although that is unlikely to be threatened here with all the rain that has fallen this week.
Goodwood has a couple of decent Listed races this Sunday, with the Agnes Keyser Fillies’ Stakes (15:35) seeing the promising Light Of Paris return to the track.
Later on the afternoon, the Tapster Stakes (16:45) features the return to action of legendary veteran Hamish. He faces five rivals, with the biggest danger looking to be stablemate Tenability, who continues to improve and whose younger legs should have an edge having already had a run this year.
Race Of The Weekend
It’s the Derby, of course, but given we’ve already previewed that the Coronation Cup (14:40, Saturday) will have to take up the reins in this spot. With that said, this looks a cracking renewal, featuring a rematch between Calandagan – arguably the best middle-distance horse on the planet – and Jan Breughal, who got the better of him in this race last year. Calandagan hasn’t run since the Dubai World Cup meeting and will have bigger end of season targets, which may narrow the small ratings gap between the pair. Jan Breughal is fit having won on his return at Chester, as did last year’s Derby winner Lambourn, who adds further intrigue to this race. He had Bay City Roller behind on the Roodee and that rival rocks up for another shot having run a blinder two weeks ago in the Group 1 Tattersalls Stakes. The improving Convergent and Ballydoyle outsider Illinois round off this top-class field.
A proper Group 1 race in terms of quality, with an intriguing tactical element. We saw Ballydoyle outfox their rivals in the French Derby last weekend and they’ll once more be looking to set things up for their two big hopes.
Horse To Watch
It’s notable that Godolphin don’t have a runner in either the Oaks or Derby this year, but they still have plenty of promising horses and Fortuna Diamond is one of them. This unbeaten and well-bred daughter of Night Of Thunder runs in the Prix Volterra (16:00) at Longchamp this Sunday and should win before going onto better things.
