In the Money Media
ITM Telegraph
Saturday, June 6, 2026 | Belmont Stakes Day | Free Horse Racing Tips & Analysis
By ITM Staff
Today Is the Last Day — Free Month of ITM Plus Expires Tonight
Sign up for ITM Plus before the Belmont Stakes tonight and get your first month completely free. Nick Tammaro’s full Belmont Stakes Day card, the Saturday Pick 6 sequence, PTF’s horse-by-horse Belmont breakdown, and the complete suite of premium picks — all free. Offer expires tonight. Claim your free month at inthemoneypodcast.com/plus.
Friday Results — Epsom & Saratoga
Epsom Oaks
Thundering On (5-1, Joseph O’Brien / Dylan Browne McMonagle) won the Betfred Oaks in dominant fashion at Epsom Downs, giving trainer Joseph O’Brien his first Classic success at Epsom. Legacy Link (3-1) was second, Sugar Island (25-1) third. Amelia Earhart, the 7-4 favourite, was well beaten. McMonagle described it as “effortless from start to finish.” Joseph O’Brien: “This is really special. She’s a very impressive filly and it was an easy watch from the turn-in.” Kevin Blake and Dave Orton at At The Races both tipped the winner. ✅
Saratoga Friday — Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Day 3
| Race | Winner | Trainer/Jockey | Nick Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acorn (G1, $500K) | Counting Stars | Casse / Irad Ortiz Jr. | — |
| Ogden Phipps (G1, $500K) | Nitrogen | Casse / Jose Ortiz | — |
| New York (G1, $750K) | Portfolio Duration | C. Brown / F. Prat | — |
| Bed o’ Roses (G2, $300K) | Ways and Means | C. Brown / F. Prat | ✅ Top Pick (R4) |
| Wonder Again (G2, $300K) | Fitz Right | C. Brown / F. Prat | ❌ Lion Lake (fav.) |
Note: Chad Brown swept three of the five Friday stakes — Bed o’ Roses, Wonder Again, and New York. Nick Tammaro’s top pick Ways and Means won the Bed o’ Roses ✅. Lion Lake was the beaten favourite in the Wonder Again.
Final Answers — ITM’s Belmont Stakes Day Picks
PTF, JK, and Michael Adolphson gave their final answers Tuesday night. Here’s a quick reference for today’s Pick 6 wagering.
| Race | PTF | JK | Michael |
|---|---|---|---|
| R8 True North (G3) | Book’em Danno (6) | Bentornato (3) A, Danno B | Imagination (2) top, 2-6-3 |
| R9 Jaipur (G1) | Ag Bullet (6) | 3,5,6,8,10 all A’s | Reef Runner (5) & Ag Bullet (6) |
| R10 Woody Stephens (G1) | Crude Velocity (6) | Crude Velocity A, Englishman/Obliteration B | Civil Liberty (8) top value |
| R11 Met Mile (G1) | Nysos (1), Journalism (7) | Journalism A, Nysos A | Nysos (1), Journalism (7), Saudi Crown (4) |
| R12 Manhattan (G1) | Bright Picture (6), Rhetorical (7) | Rhetorical top, Bright Picture | Bright Picture single |
| R13 Belmont (G1) | Renegade (4) top, CW (3), EM (8), Cmd (7) | Emerging Market A, CW A, Renegade B | CW, Renegade, EM, Commandment |
Today’s Racing — Nick Tammaro, Saratoga Belmont Stakes Day
First post 11:00 AM ET. The Belmont Stakes goes tonight at 7:04 PM ET on FOX. Nick Tammaro has the full 14-race card. Races 1–5 free below. Races 6–14 exclusive to ITM Plus members — sign up today and get your first month free.
Written Analysis — Free Selections
Nick Tammaro — Saratoga Full Card, June 6, 2026
Belmont Stakes Racing Festival — Day 4
Race 1: 4-8-5-3
#4 Cold Spell ran a race that would contend in most graded stakes on debut from a speed figure perspective. She should only improve with experience and has reportedly trained well since the unveiling. The third place finisher has already come back to win her next start while the winner underperformed at Churchill Downs. All of that matters little given what has lined up against this daughter of Gun Runner today.
Race 2: 9-3-4-7
#9 Senior Officer‘s last outing was very strong — sat just off the pace and powered clear late. The runner-up from that event has returned to win and this son of Into Mischief has drawn well on the outside to stalk and pounce. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. have proven to be a potent duo across multiple jurisdictions and will have this one ready to roll.
Race 3: 1-8-5-9
The late kick of #1 Ejtimaa makes him a threat today, provided there’s enough pace to set up his run. He was a non-threatening fourth last time out when attempting to rally into a slow pace at Keeneland. Before that, he was a good 3rd behind prior stakes winner Reagan’s Wit, rolling up the inside at 43-1. This is a spot where he can make noise in the lane at a square price.
Race 4: 2-1-7-4
#2 Naïve Melody comes in a winner of 3 of 4 prior starts, scoring last time out from just off the pace. She should get a similar trip today and is training well for trainer Wesley Ward. She has upside given the limited number of starts and this is a realistic spot for her to tackle open company for the first time.
Race 5: 9-6-2-10
#9 Marketplaceofideas has shown plenty of potential in her brief career. She finally broke through for her first win last time out at 4-5 against an overmatched field. The rival she ran down came back to underperform here on Friday, but there’s still a lot to be said about what we’ve seen from this daughter of Lope de Vega.
Races 6–14 Including the Belmont Stakes: ITM Plus Exclusive
Nick’s analysis for Races 6 through 14 — including his Belmont Stakes selections and his take on Chief Wallabee (R13, his top pick) — is available exclusively to ITM Plus members. This is the last day to sign up and get your first month free.
Tonight — The 158th Belmont Stakes
Race 13 at Saratoga. Post time 7:04 PM ET on FOX. One and a quarter miles. Nine runners.
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitruvian Man | Doug O’Neill | Antonio Fresu | 30-1 |
| 2 | Powershift | Todd Pletcher | Luis Saez | 12-1 |
| 3 | Chief Wallabee | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 3-1 |
| 4 | Renegade | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 2-1 |
| 5 | Ottinho | Chad Brown | Dylan Davis | 20-1 |
| 6 | Growth Equity | Chad Brown | Manuel Franco | 12-1 |
| 7 | Commandment | Brad Cox | John Velazquez | 6-1 |
| 8 | Emerging Market | Chad Brown | Flavien Prat | 6-1 |
| 9 | Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | Jose Ortiz | 9-2 |
Live Odds & Market Intelligence
Early tote movement (as of Friday afternoon): Renegade has steamed into near evens (6-5) in early wagering — well inside his 2-1 morning line. Chief Wallabee has drifted to 6-1 from his 3-1 ML. Golden Tempo and Commandment are both around 6-1. Emerging Market approximately 7-1. Fixed odds via FOX Sports: Renegade +100, Golden Tempo +600, Commandment +600, Chief Wallabee +600, Emerging Market +700. Pools will update significantly closer to the 7:04 PM post — check your ADW for current tote odds.
Dr. Marshall Gramm’s Imputed Win Odds
Rhodes College economist and horse racing researcher Dr. Marshall Gramm — who joined ITM earlier this year to discuss his work on market efficiency — posted this imputed win odds table derived from the Acorn ($398K pool) and New York Stakes ($274K pool) cross-pool data. These are what the market is implying the Belmont horses’ true win probabilities to be, based on how bettors allocated money across those two pools:
| PP | Horse | Acorn Implied | NY Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Renegade | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| 3 | Chief Wallabee | 4.04 | 4.57 |
| 7 | Commandment | 4.08 | 4.96 |
| 8 | Emerging Market | 4.52 | 4.30 |
| 9 | Golden Tempo | 10.86 | 10.64 |
| 2 | Powershift | 14.56 | 17.49 |
| 6 | Growth Equity | 18.56 | 20.40 |
| 5 | Ottinho | 51.23 | 70.39 |
| 1 | Vitruvian Man | 87.39 | 95.40 |
The two pools are highly consistent — both price Renegade as a heavy favourite at just odds against, with Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and Emerging Market clustered between 4-1 and 5-1. The most notable reading: Golden Tempo implied at roughly 10-1 by both pools — a meaningful discount to his 9-2 morning line and confirmation that the sophisticated money is significantly cooler on the Derby winner than the public odds suggest. Via @marshallgramm on X.
Horse-by-Horse Guide: Belmont Stakes — Peter Thomas Fornatale
Peter Thomas Fornatale | At The Races | Published June 4, 2026
PTF assesses every runner in tonight’s Belmont Stakes for our broadcast partners at Sky Sports Racing — the race airs live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 512) tonight. He makes the case on each of the nine runners, explains his reasoning on the pace question, and names his main play for the race. Essential reading before the 7:04 PM post.
Epsom Derby — Free Tips & Analysis
The Betfred Derby goes this afternoon at Epsom Downs — post time 4:00 PM UK / 11:00 AM ET. Fourteen runners, soft ground expected, Ballydoyle with a powerful hand. ITM’s Steven Bonnick has the full runner-by-runner preview, with At The Races providing expert analysis from Kevin Blake and Declan Rix.
Written Analysis
Epsom Derby & Weekend Preview — By Steven Bonnick
Steven Bonnick | In the Money Media | Published June 5, 2026
An open Derby that may yet prove better than it initially looks on paper. There’s probably no superstar in this field on what we’ve seen so far, but several of these have the potential to emerge as one with a victory here.
#7 Benvenuto Cellini (Ryan Moore / Aidan O’Brien, 2-1) is Bonnick’s selection — and it’s hard to argue. A high-class sort already, he won the Chester Vase in impressive fashion on his return and ticks virtually every box: he quickened well, he’s a confirmed stayer on striding, and he looks the most likely stayer in the field. His main concern is ground — he wouldn’t want conditions to become extremely testing — but Bonnick’s view is that any softening will inconvenience his rivals more than it inconveniences him.
The two most interesting anti-favourite plays from the home team, in Bonnick’s view, are #11 Maltese Cross (Tom Marquand / William Haggas, 10-1) — who has improved with every start, won the Lingfield Derby Trial, and shapes like a genuine stayer — and #6 Bay of Brilliance (Hector Crouch / Ralph Beckett), who excelled himself on seasonal debut when touching off in that same Lingfield trial and whose pedigree strongly suggests the extra distance here will suit.
#9 Item (Colin Keane / Andrew Balding, 9-2) brings latent potential and an unbeaten record, but Bonnick’s read is that he may ultimately prove better over shorter — his striding and pedigree are borderline for the full mile and a half, and Epsom on soft ground is a significant unknown for a horse who has yet to race beyond 10 furlongs.
Bonnick’s Verdict: Benvenuto Cellini, provided the ground doesn’t deteriorate too severely. Maltese Cross and Bay of Brilliance are the likeliest of the home team to cause an upset. Full runner-by-runner analysis plus his wider weekend preview — including the Coronation Cup, the supporting Epsom card, and a Sunday horse to watch at Longchamp — at the link.
Horse-by-Horse Guide: Betfred Derby — Kevin Blake
Kevin Blake | At The Races | Published June 4, 2026
Sky Sports Racing’s Kevin Blake has run the rule over all 14 runners with his signature stamina and striding analysis. He names a clear 1-2-3 for the race and makes the case that his selection has the most robust form on show. If the ground stays sound, he believes there’s one horse that will take all the beating.
Declan Rix — Derby Day Selections
Declan Rix | At The Races | Published June 6, 2026
Declan Rix has two selections for Derby Day — one in the supporting card and one in the big race itself. His Derby pick aligns with the consensus, but his reasoning on why rain-affected conditions might actually help rather than hurt his selection is worth reading before post time. He also makes a case for an each-way play in the Dash at 3:15.
Current Derby Market
Betfred Derby, Epsom Downs, 4:00 PM UK / 11:00 AM ET. Top five as of this morning via ATR racecard. Each-way: 3 places, 1/5 odds.
| Draw | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Best Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Benvenuto Cellini | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore | 2-1 |
| 3 | Item | Andrew Balding | Colin Keane | 9-2 |
| 8 | Pierre Bonnard | Aidan O’Brien | C. Soumillon | 15-2 |
| 13 | James J Braddock | Joseph O’Brien | D.B. McMonagle | 9-1 |
| 1 | Maltese Cross | William Haggas | Tom Marquand | 10-1 |
Prices subject to change. Check current odds at attheraces.com.
Also Today — Santa Anita & Monmouth Park
Santa Anita Saturday — Dean Keppler
Dean Keppler | In the Money Media | Saturday, June 6, 2026
Best Bet: #2 Prince Dolce, Race 4 — double turf Beyer advantage over the field, loves this turf course (8-3-1-2 lifetime), and should run them down late on the class drop. Full 10-race card analysis at the link.
Monmouth Park Full Card — Eric Solomon
Eric Solomon | In the Money Media | Saturday, June 6, 2026 | First post 12:50 PM ET
Solomon has the full eight-race Monmouth card including the $75K Spruce Fir Handicap for NJ-bred fillies and mares. Top pick: #5 Denying, Race 1. Meet record: 17/71 (23.9%), $1.49 ROI. Includes his full data tables on track bias and last-out winners by circuit.
Free Horse Racing Tips Every Week — The ITM Players’ Newsletter
The ITM Players’ Newsletter goes out every Friday and is packed with free horse racing analysis, picks, and content from the full ITM team and partners. Sign up free at inthemoneypodcast.com/email. And remember — today is the last day to sign up for ITM Plus and get your first month completely free.
