Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 6/7/26 – By Eric Solomon

New Jersey sprinters will take the spotlight this afternoon. The John J. Reilly Handicap will headline the eight race, Sunday afternoon card at Monmouth. Speaking will try to win this race for the 4th year in a row. Nine runners, including two other runners for his barn will try to keep him from winning another trophy. Three races are carded for the turf and the rails will be set at 24 feet this afternoon. While I’m sure it has happened somewhere in the past, this is the first time that I can remember where one jockey is named to ride the morning line favorite in every single race on the program. While I guess it is plausible that he sweeps the card this afternoon, I think the key to making money here this afternoon is to highlight the races where his runners might be a little vulnerable and try to exploit that as much as possible.  First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

Next weekend is the signature handicapping tournament of the year at Monmouth Park, the $2,000 Pick Your Prize Handicapping Challenge. Brian Skirka does a fantastic job year in and year out with this and all of the other contests that Monmouth offers. Registration information is linked below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/2000-pick-your-prize-handicapping-challenge/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race going five furlongs on the dirt. The two principle runners in this race both had promising maiden scores as two year olds going 4 ½ furlongs on the dirt. Johnny Come Lately (#4) was a winner at Churchill in 2024 and Copernium (#7) scored at Gulfstream in 2025. Paco LOpez rode Johnny Come Lately last weekend on the turf, but he hops off that one in favor of Copernium. This Charlatan gelding feels like the speed of the speed. His only poor effort came in stakes company in the slop when making his first start in three months. His last three races have come on the Tapeta, and he has wins in two of those efforts. All of the other runners in this spot have only one win. He was just a winner when going 1 mile and 70 yards, but I think he’s shown that he’s fast enough to handle this shorter distance today. Johnny Come Lately makes sense as the backup in this spot, despite wheeling back quickly after an off the board finish on grass at this level. 

Race 2:

Amo Racing USA LLC has a number of pricey two year olds in training with Jorge Delgado and he’s debuted two of them already at Monmouth during this meet and both runners were handy winners. They’ll team with Paco Lopez to send out Black Label (#7) in this 4 ½ furlong maiden special weight dash. He’s a son of Nyquist that cost $350K at the Fasig-Tiption Sale back in August. When compared to Regent’s Park and Madeline Swann, the first two baby winners for this outfit, his works aren’t quite as quick. With these connections, he’s going to go off at a short number. I wouldn’t let him knock me out of a mutli-race sequence, but I’m more interested in taking City Streaker (#2) on top for Eddie Owens. He’s a New Jersey bred son of Sea Wizard sent out by Eddie Owens. He blew out four furlongs in 46:3 last week in preparation for his debut. His full brother, Ship to Shore was a winner in open maiden company here and he went on to win the Limehouse Stakes at Gulfstream as a three year old. I think he can offer some value in this spot. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go a mile and seventy yards on the dirt in this optional $16K claiming/$8K starter allowance race. Equus (#6) romped at this level last month, beating both Salagadoola (#3) and La Vecchia Signora (#7) by over 10 lengths. She wheeled back eight days later and put in a good effort to be third in an optional claiming/N1X allowance race here. She’ll face the two rivals that she vanquished that day, but she’ll also have to deal with Chelsea Wall (#4), who continues her Mid-Atlantic Tour for Jamie Ness. She was a winner in a beaten claiming race where she was eligible to run with a waiver at Parx two starts ago. She was an easy winner in her last start in a similar kind of race as this at Delaware. This is a mare that knows how to win races as she has 15 victories in 46 career trips to the track. Both of these mares are logical, but I think this could be a spot for La Vecchia Signora to rebound. She came here boasting a three race winning streak at Tampa, showing improvement with each start as she rose through the claiming ranks. While she had no answer for Equus last out, that one has another start crammed into her running lines. Perhaps she’ll continue to thrive with more races, but a few extra weeks off will help La Vecchia Signora here. Equus was 3-2 and La Vecchia Signora was 5-2 in that last race, so the odds disparity figures to be wider here, which means there should be a square number on the top pick. 

Race 4:

Neither DRF or Equibase shows a $3 All-Turf Pick wager being available this afternoon at Monmouth, however there are three turf races, starting with this $16K-$14K maiden claiming sprint, going 5 ½ furlongs out of the chute. The rails are set at 24 feet for the grass races here this afternoon. Paco Lopez shows up on a class dropping favorite for Rick Dutrow, Bashful Baby (#7). While her speed figures fit at this level, this filly has shown little early speed in her few starts, and it’s been pretty important to have some tactical speed at this distance on this course over the last few seasons. The first few races feel like they could be fairly formful, so this is a sport where I’ll take a stand against a short price. I landed on Belvedere Club (#2)as the top pick for Lindsay Schultz. She’s making her turf debut this afternoon after some uninspiring dirt races in maiden claiming races at Oaklawn. She was a bit sharper in 2025, but there are still some things to like. Hard Spun gets 13% winners with his turf sprinters. The dam was 0-4 on the turf but her first foal to race ran his best race in a turf sprint at Ellis. She has early speed and the surface switch may be what the doctor ordered to reverse her recent form. Derby Hangover (#5) is also trying the turf for the first time. She has some synthetic form though at Gulfstream last year, which wasn’t terrible. Terri Pompay brings her back for the first time since September of last year. She trained a winner in the nightcap yesterday. This mare is sired by Violence who also gets 13% winners with his turf sprinters. I’ll backup with April Spun (#6), who is another Hard Spun filly in this spot. She’s a three year old that ran a career top figure when coming back to a turf sprint last month when running in a similar spot at Tampa. She was a bit one paced in that five furlong dash, but she still finished third, and was moved up to second via DQ. I think the added ½ furlong could suit her and I do think she is trending up for this race. 

Race 5:

Three year olds and up will dash six furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. Amberjack (#2) is the 5th consecutive morning line favorite that Paco Lopez is named to ride on this card. He’s another AMO Racing USA LLC runner that Jorge Delgado will saddle. This one is a little different though as he was running for Chad Brown earlier this year. His two races at Gulfstream were respectable, and his most recent race has already produced three next out winners, including a runner that crushed a maiden allowance field at Keeneland and was second in a stakes race at Laurel on Preakness Day last month. Delgado isn’t great with new acquisitions though and I think the New York invader, Frostelle (#8) will be breathing down his neck in this race. I’m picking him to get over the hump this afternoon in his 9th career start. He’s getting class relief by coming to New Jersey today and Chris Englehart is getting him back on the dirt after coming up a bit short in a turf sprint at this distance in his last start. He has decent tactical speed and I’m thinking he can outfinish the favorite in this race. Decimated (#5) is an interesting first time starter for Chuck Spina in this race. Spina trains mostly New Jersey breds, so it’s interesting to see him debut this Kentucky bred son of Munnings. The dam was unraced, but she was foaled by a Grade 2 winner. The bloodlines are very nice for this runner that figures to be flying under the radar in this race. The works are solid, so I do think he’s worth a look. 

Race 6:

$16K-$14K N3L claimers will go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in this race. I like Prince of Troy (#3) a lot here. He has fired a big effort off the bench in the past and he feels like he can be the controlling speed in this spot. While he ran poorly in his first start off the layoff last season, he had a miserable trip on a day where he was marooned in post 11. He came back with some solid efforts, including a decent third place finish at this level .He can be tough to pass when gets the lead and he should be able to do that here. I’m Due (#1) with Paco Lopez figures to be the one most equipped to run him down in the stretch. He’s shipping from Gulfstream after getting nailed late in a race at a similar level there in April. He changes barns and runs now for Jose Gallegos, who has won 24% of his races in 2026. There’s plenty to like however the price will likely be heavily taxed, especially is Paco has a handful of winners coming into this race.

Race 7, The $75K John J. Reilly Handicap:

This state bred handicap came up quite salty as an upstart three, year old, Cairo Surprise (#5) will be facing some gritty New Jersey breds, headed by Speaking (#3), who has won this race in three consecutive years. Despite these two headliners clashing for the first time, this feels like a good spot for Great Navigator (#9) to get right. He dominated the New Jersey Breeders Handicap last summer when starting off a similar kind of layoff as today. Some horses are making their first starts of the year, so they might not be as sharp. This six year old is coming off a bit of a disappointing campaign at Gulfstream. He’s done his best work on this oval though and I believe this talented son of Sea Wizard still has something left in the tank. I’m looking for him to stalk some speedy front-runners before he gets rolling in the later stages. While I don’t know if he’s going to be as sharp while coming off the layoff, I can’t ignore Speaking in this spot. You don’t accidentally win the same state bred stakes race three times in a row. Races this this and the New Jersey Breeders’ Handicap are perennial targets for this horse, After a dull effort in that race in his last start, Owens opted to not race him in open company over the winter at Gulfstream. He’s been ramping up his AM drills since coming back to town and he figures to be right in the mix once again. All eyes will be on Cairo Surprise after his monster effort earlier in the meet. His 100 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort which was preceded by a 90 Beyer Speed Figure on the turf at Laurel two back, tells me that this is a serious race horse. Perhaps that figure was elevated because of the sealed track on that rainy afternoon in May. This is an acid test for a three year old taking on his elders and I do think it’s likely that he regresses from his last start. However, he still might be better than this group at this stage, even if we see less than his best. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the week with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race on the turf for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. All nine runners here qualified for this race under the N2L condition. I’m intrigued by Radar Loop (#2) here, getting back on the turf for Mike Dini. Her last race was washed off the lawn and she ran like she didn’t want to be there. She had some spots of trouble in her previous turf tries at Tampa. She was a debut winner here last season, beating Fitz Right by a length. While that one came back to easily beat her over the winter at Tampa, that filly just notched a Grade 2 win in the Wonder Again at the Spa on Friday. Her race in starter allowance company three back was better than it looks on paper. She’s getting class relief on the grass and her draw should help her lock up a decent position in the early stages of this one. I think she can get it done here. The back marker in this race that figures to be the most dangerous is Backseat Romance (#9). She is likely going to need to trip out as she’s drawn the outside post. She doesn’t have a lot of speed, so she’ll likely be at the back of the pack in the early stages. Her last effort was solid against better, so if she replicates that try, she’ll be tough. I think she’s more likely to be underneath in the verticals though. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 17/71 (23.9%), $105.90 ($1.49 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet