Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Saturday, October 5th, 2024 – By Eric Solomon

The biggest day of the Keeneland Fall Meet offers five graded stakes, three of which are Grade 1 races. Master of the Seas won the Coolmore Turf Mile last year en route to winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile. It’s likely that we’ll see several of the runners from these races this afternoon competing in the Breeders’ Cup World Championship races at Del Mar next month. Note the wagering menu here as there are some slight modifications. The forecast is calling for a beautiful afternoon of racing which gets started at 1:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A field of nine is entered in this $50K maiden claiming race for two year olds that will start the afternoon. This race starts a Pick-5 that is very heavy on two year old races. Four of the five races in this sequence are for two year olds, so if betting on the babies is your thing, this is a great sequence to jump in to. Seven of the nine runners have at least one race under their belts, but the two shortest prices on the morning line are first time starters. Wesley Ward has the second choice in the morning line with One True Shance (#4), who is a Shancelot first time starter. Ward had a winner in the spring here with a Shancelot firster. He missed a month of training over the summer, but he’s been working consistently on this oval since July. He was gelded in August, which could explain why this homebred is debuting with a claiming tag. Ward has connected with 27% of his debuting two year old runners in maiden claiming races over the last five years. He’s won with two of nine here at Keeneland in that span. Thomas Drury sends out the morning favorite, J David (#9) after some sharp workouts at Churchill. Like the Ward runner, he’s a homebred debuting for a barn who knows how to get runners ready to make their first starts. His dam has two runners that have made it to the track, but neither found the Winner’s Circle in their careers. While Drury has a decent record with debut runners in maiden claiming races, he’s 0-9 with two year olds debuting at this level. Apprentice Irving Moncada has 19 wins on the year and he’ll be looking for his first at Keeneland. He’s a deeper backup for me though. I’ll use Cavanal (#3) as a runner on the B line in this race, to maybe add a little spice to the exotics. To use this one, you have to be willing to completely toss his debut in Indiana where he had a disastrous start. He faced a respectable field that day, where the winner was a Brisset third time starter getting a fast track for the first time and the runner up was a Brad Cox firster. The third place finisher came back to win in an off the turf maiden special weight race out there and the 5th place finisher ran a decent second in a maiden claiming race at Churchill. He wasn’t asked for much after the bad break, and Moquett’s horses tend to improve over time. The drop in class is warranted though. I would have liked to have seen at least one gate work since that race, or at least one published work. However, I’ll still be willing to try him underneath at the very least. 

Race 2:

Two year olds will go one mile on the turf in this maiden special weight contest. Note the runners that were cross-entered yesterday, all showed up on the AE list. I would assume they would opt to run here where they’d likely have a better post position. There’s an interesting dynamic in this race with the morning line favorite, States Rights (#1). His Beyer Figure that they assigned him is the highest in the field. However, the Equibase Speed Figure assigned to that race is a lot lower than the par for this race. Sometimes when I find races like this, I try to take an aggressive stand against the horse with the larger Beyer Figure. Typically, Beyer Figures are a big factor in moving the odds, and this could easily be a case where the horse with a Beyer Figure that could be a few points larger than it should be goes off at a price that is too low. However, in this instance, I’m leaning toward the Beyer Figure telling the more accurate story in regard to this one’s ability. Horses that have run back out of that Saratoga race have put up significantly higher Equibase figures. The third and fifth place finishers have come back to win maiden special weight races at Kentucky Downs and Belmont at the Big A. He’s going to be on the A line for me, but I’m going to try a Pletcher second time starter, Battle Drum (#4) as my top pick in this race. He was away a beat slowly in his debut at Saratoga. As a result, he was shuffled to the back of the field and was covered up for the majority of the race. He never really had a seam, but he finished with some interest and showed enough grit to try to go through a narrow opening. He finished 5th that day in a race that wasn’t particularly fast. There’s a definite pedigree for grass there and Pletcher and Velasquez are always dangerous when they team up. Dom Traces (#11) is a backup play for me in this race. His dam was a multiple Grade 3 winning mare on the turf. Like the other two horses that she foaled, Correas started him in a sprint race. He didn’t run well that day, but neither did the other two runners that she foaled. The other runner that has multiple starts has yet to win a race, but she did move forward in her second start at two turns on the turf. Jose Ortiz has been riding a lot of Cherie DeVaux’s horses at this meet. She has the favorite here, so it’s a little interesting to see him riding this colt. 

Race 3:

Two year old fillies will go seven furlongs in this maiden special weight race. An interesting stat from the 2023 Fall Meet is that there were 18 one turn maiden special weight races run. 10 of those 18 races were won by first time starters, which was a little surprising to me. A few of the races were mostly first time starters last year, but most of them were a mix. Names like Thorpedo Anna and Tarifa were two that stood out as I was combing through the charts the other day. It just goes to show that owners want to unveil their better runners at a meet like this. Four of the nine runners entered here are making their first career start today. The one that might be best suited to winning on debut is Planiloquent (#2) for Jose Ortiz and Cherie DeVaux. The quality of runners that DeVaux is getting is going up each year and she’s delivering results on those investments. While she doesn’t have great numbers with first time starters, she certainly can get a horse ready to run. She’s hit with 9% of her debuting runners since 2023, but she’s won with 13% of her two year old firsters in a five year span. This Street Sense filly is a full sister to Zaajel, who won by 7+ lengths at this distance on debut in December of her two year old season. The works are solid and the five with experience haven’t set the world on fire. Impulse Buy (#4) is the logical alternative to the top pick, making her second start for Rodolphe Brisset. He has great numbers with second time starters, and this one looks like a horse that will get better in her second time out. She ran a respectable second when debuting at this distance at Ellis in August. WinStar opted to wait until the Keeneland meet to send her out for the second time. All signs point to an improved effort this time out. I’ll use another first time starter as a backup in this spot. Illuminatrice (#9) debuts for Graham Motion in this race. She’s the 5th horse to run from the dam Lucky Copy,who has foaled a two year old debut winner. As a sire, Twirling Candy has a 19% hit race with debuting runners in dirt sprints. Motion has hit with 12% of his debuting runners in dirt sprints over the last five years. 

Race 4:

The second of five races scheduled for the turf this afternoon is a N2X allowance race for three years olds and up, going nine furlongs. There’s a chance that Freedom Trail (#1) might just be the best version of himself when he runs on the turf course at Aqueduct. He has four starts there and has run four of his best races. However, at 10-1 (ML), I’d be willing to bet that we’ll see an improved version of himself in this race, while making his second start of the year for John Terrnavoa. He ended his three year old campaign with a strong effort at this level at the Belmont at the Big A meet and then a game 4th place finish in the Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes in November at the Aqueduct Fall Meet. He was on the sidelines until August when he returned in a strong N2X allowance on the grass at Saratoga. He caught a good course that day and got tied in the late stages of that one, finishing last of nine when going 1 3/16 miles. He shortens up to 1 ⅛ miles and he’ll make his second start off the layoff on what should be a firm course. His effort in the Transylvania Stakes here in the spring was better than it looks on paper. Beuys (#4) is listed at 8-1 on the morning line, but I think it’s a little more realistic to think that he’ll go into the starting gate at odds closer to 4-1. He hasn’t won a race since scoring in a seven furlong sprint last year at Kentucky Downs. However, he has lost in three very narrow photo finishes in the span of time. He’s coming off a fourth place in the Bernard Baruch last out when he was dipping his toes into stakes competition for the first time. He ran very well at this condition here last fall and I think he’ll be right there at the end once again. Rebel Red (#7) is the morning line favorite for Cherie DeVaux. Her barn seems to have a ton of live mounts at this meet and this is another runner with a solid chance with Jose Ortiz getting back in the irons. Manny Franco was riding him in the Baruch last out when he finished last of the seven in that race. That was also his first North American race where he ran without receiving race day Lasix medication. His N1X allowance win at Saratoga at the beginning of their summer meet was very strong and if he’s able to run back to that effort, he’s going to be a problem for this field. 

Race 5:

The 4th of five two year old races on the day is an optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race going six furlongs. Kirin (#7) is one of two runners coming back to the dirt after some turf efforts. He made his debut in May this spring, winning handily at Gulfstream. Jose D’Angelo brought him to Monmouth where he tried the turf for the first time at Monmouth in the Tyro Stakes. He ran well enough to be third that day, which enabled D’Angelo to take a chance with him in the Juvenile Turf Mile at Kentucky Downs. With a million dollar purse on the line, you can’t blame them for taking the shot. He came up empty in that race after chasing an aggressive early pace. Since then he drilled a monster four furlong bullet work on this course, stopping the clock in 45:2 for the four furlongs. He’s bred to run on the main track and that last workout signals to me that we’re going to see a much better version of himself this afternoon. There should be a lively pace, which could favor Sexagenarian (#5), who also took a shot in a lucrative race at Kentucky Downs last time out. He also was a winner in his debut, tracking the early leaders then pouncing at the top of the stretch to win going away at Ellis. He set moderate fractions in a restricted allowance race on the grass last out before getting caught late. He’s another runner that is bred to be better on the dirt. He paired his first two Beyer Figures for Maker, so I see him as a candidate to move forward as well. Charbonnay (#8) is an interesting price runner in this race, dropping out of stakes company for John Ennis. He took a shot in the seven furling Juvenile Stakes at Ellis after breaking his maiden going one mile on the dirt in June in Indiana. He likely won’t be on the lead in this race at this distance, but if he can be comfortable sitting the kind of trip that I think Sexagenerian can sit, I do think we’ll see a better effort from him as well. 

Race 6, The G2 Woodford Stakes Presented by Fanduel: 

The first stakes race of the day is a good one as there are 15 runners entered, but there’s a maximum of 12 that will be running the 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Both Axthelm (#2) and Determined Kingdom (#13) are cross entered in the Belmont Turf Sprint on Saturday. Both horses are committed to going to New York. The three year old, Hedwig (#14), who is cross-entered in an allowance here tomorrow, would now have the first option to stay in this race. Should he opt to run tomorrow, Foxtrotanna (#15) would be next in line. Arzak (#10) is the top pick for me, coming back to a course where he’s won both times. He was the winner of this race last year, drawing off to win by two lengths. He came back here in the spring and took home the trophy in the Grade 2 Shakertown. He had some traffic issues, but was never going to beat Cogburn in the Jaipur. His last two races weren’t his best, but he was up against a pretty significant track bias in the Wolf Hill at Monmouth. He didn’t get the best trip in the Harvey Pack either last time out. Irad Ortiz is riding in New York today, so Jaime Torres will reunite with him after last riding him in the Jaipur. While he’s no Irad Ortiz, he’s a solid jockey that could increase his profile with a win in a race like this. Nobals (#6) makes his third start of the year today and, historically, this is when he’s turned in some of his better efforts. He was an upset winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last year and Rivelli is trying to get him back to defend his title. His first two races of the year were not up to par, but he did show some improvement against Cogburn at Kentucky Downs last out. He was off the board in his lone start on this course, but that came on a course that was labeled good. The course should be fresh and form for this race and I think we’ll see a strong effort from him. Wesley Ward is always a player in these races and he has No Nay Hudson (#5), who is a four year old that may be finding his best form. He’s also making his third start off the layoff. He was a game third at Del mar last out, home of this year’s Breeders’ Cup. He ran a career top figure for that effort and I think he can build off that race. Frankie Dettori taking the mount won’t hurt his prospects.On deeper tickets, Gear Jockey (#11) is a live longshot, making his second start of the year. He’s historically needed a race after a break before we’ve seen his best. I’ll give him a pass for his dull effort two back in the Breeders’ Cup as he had a miserable trip that day. I think Arnold would have preferred to get a prep in before his Kentucky Downs race last out because he always shows up there. He’s a two time winner of the Grade 2 Turf Sprint, winning in 2021 and 2023. He ran well in the 2022 Woodford here, so I think this might be a good spot for him at long odds. 

Race 7, The Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes:

There’s only seven running in this year’s running of the Grade 2 TCA Stakes, but this is a solid group. Red Carpet Ready (#7) comes back to the dirt after two turf sprint races. She faltered at Kentucky Downs in her most recent start after running a solid second at Ellis Park on Kentucky Downs Preview Day. She was third after carving out ambitious fractions in the Madison this spring when facing the likes of the late Alva Starr and Vahva. She’s at her best when she’s able to stalk the pace and her outside draw should allow Tyler Gaffalione to work out that kind of trip. All of her graded stakes victories came with that kind of trip. She’ll have Spirit Wind (#4) that is going to be sent for the lead and Brightwork (#3) is probably going to be forced to go with her to avoid getting buried along the rail. I think this four year old filly gets the run of the race while punching her ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Both Brightwork and Spirit Wind are definitely players and both of these ladies are capable of running a monster race that could defy a less than perfect trip. Brightwork came back a winner in the Grade 3 Prioress last month when making her first start since a dull effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. I think Ortiz is content to let her flourish in one turn races. She’ll face older horses for the first time today, so there’s a chance that she could need this race before we see her best. She is  Grade 1 winner though and she looked like she moved forward from her two year old season. Spirit Wind ran a dull race when carving out the fractions in the two turn Pink Ribbon Stakes at Charles Town. I won’t hold bad efforts against horses at that track. Her one turn races at this distance are strong and off the seven runners she may be best suited for the ¾ mile trip. Mike Smith has followed her from Texas to New York to West Virginia to now Kentucky, so clearly he believes in her ability. 

Race 8, The Grade 1 First Lady Stakes Presented by UK Healthcare:

One of my stronger opinions on the card is Gina Romantica (#4) in this Grade 1 contest. She’s the kind of horse that gets better with more starts in a season. She was not the best version of herself in her first two starts of the year at Monmouth and Saratoga. She came back with a strong effort to finish a close third behind Whitebeam (#11) and Moira in the Diana when going nine furlongs two starts ago. Her stablemate, Beaute Cachee, who stole the Jenny Wiley on the front earlier in the year, stole the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, with her finishing a neck behind. Her stablemate had every advantage possible in that four horse, Chad Brown-centric field. She was a dominating winner in this race last year and that effort was good enough to earn her a spot in the starting gate for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where she finished a strong 4th, beaten only a length. I think we’ll see her make another late season push this year. She likes the course and this is probably her best distance, which is not the case for Whitebeam. While I was a little surprised that she was made the morning line favorite, I think she’ll get a sweet, midpack trip and come home as the best horse on this day. Her stablemate Chili Flag (#8) is the backup option for me. She’ll likely be hanging out at the back of the pack in this race, but the potential for a pace meltdown is there. Ag Bullet (#10) has a ton of speed, and is coming off a stakes win at 6 ½ furlongs on grass. Others want to go early, so I do think there’s a chance that the early tempo is aggressive. She’d appreciate a pace meltdown where many of the ones that do the heavy lifting come back to the field late. I played against her when she won the Just a Game on Belmont Weekend at Saratoga because I think others had a higher ceiling. I still think that to some degree, but I do respect that she might have the highest floor in the race. 

Race 9, The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders Futurity:

Some very good horses have emerged as winners of this Grade 1 race over the last several years since they returned to a traditional main dirt track here at Keeneland. Classic Empire, Maxfield, Knicks Go, Essential Quality, and Forte all earned their first Grade 1 score in this race. A field of 11 has signed on in hopes of adding their name to this prestigious list. I don’t usually love horses going from six furlongs to two turns in a race like this, but I think East Avenue (#5) could be a special horse for Godolphin. He was sensational when debuting in a six furlong sprint at Ellis at the end of February. He’s worked well since that start and could be the controlling speed in this race. He has a very nice mix of speed and stamina in his pedigree. He’s sired by Medaglia d’Oro out of the unraced mare Dance Music. The dam of Dance Music is Dance Card, who foaled the recent standout, Cody’s Wish. He’s going to try to follow in the footsteps of Maxfield and Essential Quality to win this race for Godolphin. Handsome Pants (#4) looks like a good runner for Ken McPeek. He was good enough to break his maiden at Churchill on debut when going this 1 1/16 mile distance there. There was a contentious pace that day and there could be the same today. The Derby winning trainer teams up once again with Brian Hernandez Jr., who made the decisive move to get Mystik Dan to the finish line slightly in front of Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Ferocious (#1) is the morning line favorite who is stretching out to two turns after losing to Chancer McPatrick in the Hopeful Stakes last month at the Spa. His rival leads the way in the Champagne, going a one turn mile at Belmont at the Big A. That was a bit of an odd race for this son of Flatter. He looked like he was going in the wrong direction at one point, but he was able to find his best stride late to make things interesting. His connections paid $1,300,000 for him, so the expectations have always been there. He fits on Beyers, but I want to see him on his best behavior before taking a short price on him. 

Race 10, The Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile: 

I’m not sold on the Europeans that are coming in for this Grade 1 contest that produced last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, Master of the Seas (he was narrowly defeated in this race though). I think we’re looking at a similar outcome to the Fourstardave, but I do think More Than Looks (#3) has a much better chance against Carl Spackler (#9) today. DeVaux planned to bring More Than Looks back from a long layoff, using the ungraded Lure Stakes at Saratoga as his launching point. That race ended up being rescheduled and then taken off the turf, so DeVaux had to pivot. She entered him in the Grade 1 Fourstardave where he met a pumped up Carl Spackler, who was fit and ready to fire his A game. More Than Looks ran well in defeat, but he also ran like a horse that needed to shake the rust off. He finished his three year old campaign in promising style, easily winning the Jefferson Cup at Churchill and running a solid 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Mile when he drew Post 12. Carl Spackler does have more tactical speed, but he runs the risk of covering more ground. DeVaux has good numbers second off the layoff and she has pointed him to this specific race this time. I think he can turn the tables on his rival. Carl Spackler finally ran the kind of race that his fans had been hoping to see from him. I watched that race on the big screen at Del Mar this summer and he was absolutely dominating in that race. Assuming this field stays intact, Gaffalione is going to have to make some early decisions about positioning. He is clearly the one to beat and I’m sure the betting public will treat him as such.

Race 11:

Eglise (#5) is going to take a bulk of the public money in this maiden special weight race for three year olds and up, going seven furlongs and 148 feet on the Beard Course. He has narrowly lost his last two races at this level, one going six furlongs at Ellis and the other going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill. He cuts back to a longer one turn sprint where he should have a stamina edge over most of his rivals. He has strong speed figures and feels like the one to beat. However, if the odds discrepancy stays about the same between him and It’s My Life (#7) (8-5 compared to 8-1), I think It’s My Life is the better bet. He ran a strong third on debut at Gulfstream back in February. That was one of the better maiden races of the meet with both Beeline and Mr. Skylight coming back to win in their next starts. He drew that rail that day in a full 12 horse field and he didn’t help his cause when he got out of the gate slowly. He was on the bench for over six months and George Arnold opted to bring him back on the turf at Kentucky Downs. He ran a respectable race to be 4th, but if his debut is any indication, he’s going to be better on the main track. While I think the favorite might have the better chance of winning, I think this one has the best chance of pulling off the upset, and assuming the odds stay that far apart, he’d be worth playing to win. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 6/10 (60%), $5.09 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.