Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 10/16/25 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a strong nine race card this Thursday at Keeneland. The featured race is a N3X allowance contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Only two of the nine races are carded for the lawn so once again, there will be no All-Turf Pick-3 wager this afternoon. First post for this afternoon is set  for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Thursday program commences with a beaten $62,500 claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. All eight runners that entered in this spot qualified for this race under the N3L condition. For a race at this distance, there’s not much early speed signed on. In her last start, Shezafunkydrummer (#4) was blitzed at the start when a 20-1 longshot caught a flyer from the gate and led every step of the way in an optional $125K claiming/N2X allowance race at Churchill last month. She was three wide throughout and was never a threat in that race, finishing 4th. The runner-up came back to win a N2X allowance race here on Saturday, a race that Rivelli entered with this filly, but bypassed that spot in favor of today’s contest. She finished a little more than three lengths behind that one, who just beat a field that is much better than this group. Jareth Loveberry rode her for the first time that day and probably learned that being passive early on isn’t what this filly is looking for. I’m expecting him to put this filly in play early on and I think her class will carry her home. Blue Squall (#2) is the backup for me. She was really good in spots last year at Oaklawn, but she’s struggled to be that horse in recent races. DIrt was her best surface and her last two efforts on the main track were discouraging. She is dropping in for a rag after getting a little extra time off. If the pace scenario favored her a little more, I’d consider ranking her a bit higher. She’s one to watch in the paddock and when warming up. If she’s not on her toes, I might be more inclined to fade her. If she’s looking lively, I do think she could have a live look, assuming that she’s being offered at a fair price. 

Race 2:

Two year old fillies will dash six furlongs in this $30K maiden claiming event. Eddie Kenneally gave Topic Thunder (#10) some extra time off after missing the break in her debut. She took some money in that race, but was never really involved. Kenneally has strong numbers with second time starters and the drop from $50K to $30K maiden claiming company feels appropriate. Matty’s Baby (#12) is the logical morning line favorite after a strong effort in the slop at this level on debut last month. Brendan Walsh continues to have an excellent 2025 at Keeneland as he goes into this week atop the trainer standings with seven victories thus far at this meet. The dam has yet to foal a winner in a dirt sprint, but I think the pairing with Independence Hall makes sense. Christy (#9) is probably the most interesting first timer in this race. She’s also coming from Walsh’s barn. Her sire, Halladay, did all of his work on the turf, but there is some dirt speed and precocity on the dam side as she was sired by Run Away and Hide. The dam only ran three times, breaking her maiden in start three. The works are solid and Dettori has ridden two winners in three tries for Walsh at Keeneland. 

Race 3:

This maiden special weight for two year olds going seven furlongs oversubscribed, so there are two divisions, with the second coming up in Race 6. This feels like a race where coverage would be helpful. Bye Bye Brady (#2) is the top pick in this spot for Steve Asmussen. While I’d like him a lot better at six furlongs, his dam produces horses that win at first asking. Four of her five horses to make it to the track were debut winners and the one that didn’t win had a miserable trip and broke his maiden in his second start. She was matched with Army Mule, who gets 20% winners with dirt sprinters on debut. His runners are 0-6 when debuting at seven furlongs, but I’m hopeful that this one will be able to gut it out for the final furlong. Mimicry (#4) is one of two runners sired by American Pharoah that Ken McPeek will be unveiling in this race. While her stablemate, Grand Slam Sam (#11) appeared destined to start this summer at the Spa, she had a bit of a setback and had to miss about six weeks of training. Mimicry on the other hand seems to be a quick study, and she’s making her first start, less than two months after making her first workout. That is not really typical of McPeek’s runners, and with Irad Ortiz taking the mount, that tells me that he thinks highly of her. Our Forefathers (#7) had a strong debut for Peter Eurton last month at Churchill. He broke in and bumped his rival, which caused him to get away at the back of the pack after the first few strides. He rushed up along the rail while having to tap on the brakes behind horses. He had to muscle his way out into a clear lawn once they spun off the turn, but he failed to switch leads, hindering his rally. He cost $1.2 million last fall, so the expectations have been high. The added distance and a smoother break will help his cause. There’s a high priced firster in the stall next door who is worth using as a backup. With a name like Colossus (#6) and a May 2025 price tag of $975K, this horse must be a physical specimen. How he handles that size will remain to be seen. He worked steadily in New York, but never made it to the races there. He shipped here at the end of September and has a work over the course in preparation for this race. Any time a horse sells for that kind of money a few months before they debut, I do think they are worth paying attention to.

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this $80K N2L claiming contest. Riddle Solver (#8) feels playable in this race at long odds for Norm Casse. He claimed him on behalf of Matt Murphy for this $80K tag in May at Churchill after faltering in his first two turn try. He ran quite well at long odds in a race at this condition when going about seven furlongs on the Beard Course in April. He was a winner on the Tapeta three back, when making his first start off a similar layoff to the one he’s coming back from today. Casse has strong numbers first off the claim and coming back off layoffs like this. In fairness, when combining these angles, he’s 0-9 in the last five years, however, 5 of those 9 runners ran competitive races in those spots. He’s starting off at 20-1, which might be high. However, I’d be willing to play him to win at 12-1 or better in this spot. Comes a Time (#11) does seem like a decent favorite for Brad Cox. He’s getting back on the dirt after struggling in this last start on the turf at Kentucky Downs. His prior effort on the lawn was good enough to take a swing in that allowance race which carried a purse of over $200K, but I think sprinting on the dirt is what he would prefer to be doing. This barn is coming off a strong weekend here, and while I don’t love that he’s dropping in for a tag without trying the dirt once more in allowance company, I think he’s going to be tough in this race. It’s been over a year since Bourbon’s Fault (#1) found the Winner’s Circle. He was claimed for this $80K tag back in October at Churchill. He’s earned some checks in allowance races and he just missed at this level back in May. Aaron Shorter gave him a little extra time after a subpar try two months ago at Ellis. He might need this race before we see another top effort from him, which could come at Churchill in his next start. I’ll use him as a backup here and depending on his effort, he might be one that I’ll tab for his next start. 

Race 5:

The first turf race of the day is a N1X allowance contest that ends the Early Pick-5 and kicks off the Late Pick-5. A field of 16 was entered with a maximum number of 12 starters that will go postward in this 5 ½ furlong test. Several runners in this race are coming out of one of three different N1X allowance races at Kentucky Downs. This is a tough spot because 10 of the 12 horses entered in the body of the field for this race broke their maidens in gate to wire fashion. When looking at some other races, very few horses have shown they can win a race if they don’t have the early lead. I think this is a really good spot for Rowdy Riot (#13) if she can get into this race. There’s a chance that he can because Bunratty Manor (#6) was cross-entered on Wednesday, where she drew post 13, which means that she’s the first one to draw in off the AE list should there be a defection. She’s scheduled to face the boys here, and looking at this field compared to the field of fillies and mares on Wednesday, I’m sure her connections would much rather run her in that spot. Rowdy Riot closed very well to get within a length of breaking his maiden in his lone turf sprint try last summer at Ellis. He finally broke through, winning on the dirt last October at Churchill. He went on to run well in sprints on the dirt at Oaklawn before taking the summer off. He came back in an off the turf race at Churchill last month where he was a little keen, finishing third that day. He gets back on the grass today, which could be welcome. He’ll have plenty of pace to close into if he’s good enough. If he doesn’t draw in, this could be a spot for Hard to Say (#8) to run a career top effort. His two turf sprints at Ellis when going this distance were both solid efforts. He’s also coming out of the same off the turf race at Churchill where he finished 6th. He’s going to have to take a step forward, but I do think it’s a good spot for him while making his third start of this form cycle. He’s a 30-1 morning line longshot and he should be every bit of that in this race. He’ll need a trip, but unlike many of his rivals, he can pass horses. Confront (#12) might be the speed of the speed, and in a race like this, that might not be the worst thing. He was caught late when going 6 ½ furlongs at Kentucky Downs in his turf debut. If he can move forward off that effort, the other speed runners might not matter to him. He will need to prove his mettle on a traditional turf course though. 

Race 6: 

On paper, this division of the maiden special weight contest for two year olds going seven furlongs came up stronger than the first heat. However, the success or lack thereof from some of the first time starters will likely determine the overall strength of these races. Both Dr. Kapur (#8) and Circle Tap (#11) are coming off strong efforts when going six furlongs. Dr. Kapur is coming out of a strong maiden race at Saratoga on the Travers Undercard. Big Dom was the winner and he came to finish 6th here in the Breeders’ Futurity on opening weekend. The 3rd place finisher came back to be a distant second to Further Ado when he freaked on this course last week. The 4th and 7th place finishers of that race came back to run 1-2 in a nice maiden race on a stakes heavy card in New York. He’s bred to get better at longer distances and I like the progression to seven furlongs in his second start before potentially trying a route next time out. I think he’s the most likely winner of this race. I’ll use Circle Tap, who did take a big step forward last time out at Churchill. He also looks like a runner that will appreciate the added distance, but I do wonder if he’s more of a plodder that would be better suited for the bottom parts of the vertical exotics. There are some interesting first time starters in this race, and I’ll look to cover with them for some value. Lighter (#7) is a Constitution first time starter for Rodolphe Brisset. Constitution has had 29 starters debut at this distance and 8 of them came home winners (28%). The dam was stakes placed in Canada and she has produced a useful runner in the states. Brisset doesn’t have great numbers with first time starters lately, but he is 2-10 with two year olds debuting at this distance over the last five years. I talked about a McPeek first time starter sired by Maxfield that could be upset minded on the Wednesday card, and he’ll send out another one, Liberty National (#10) in this spot. His owners shelled over $525K for him last September and he appears to be working well for his debut. Maxfield’s two year olds to debut at this distance were 2-2 going into the week and McPeek has gotten 11% winners with his debuting two year old runners at this distance over the last five years. He sent out Thorpedo Anna two years ago to a dominating seven furlong score. 

Race 7:

13 horses entered this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. Ron Moquett is looking for his first winner of the meet and despite the 12-1 morning line figure, Speed Bias (#9) might be equipped to get him there. He’s making his second start off a brief layoff. He met a stakes quality allowance field at Churchill last out where he finished a well beaten 5th as a longshot. He was sharp when winning at Indiana in June and he cleared this condition at Churchill last year. He has a strong win over this course and feels like a candidate to move forward in this race. Resilience (#5) won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial last spring and finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby. He’s spent the last five starts at this condition though, finishing a close second at Churchill in his last start. His last two efforts signal that he could be in the process of turning things around after a disastrous effort in the Belmont last year. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Mackman (#7) for Matt Shirer. He has solid numbers off the layoff and he’ll need to have this son of Union Rags on his toes to win this race. He’s held his own against high level competition and if he’s the same horse he was last season, he looks like a good fit here. 

Race 8:

The featured race on the card is a N3X allowance contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Going into this week, there have been 25 races run over the turf course here at this meet. A whopping 12 of those runners last raced at Kentucky Downs. To be fair, the number is a bit skewed because so many turf horses point to that meet, and from a timing standpoint, it makes sense for local horsemen to go from there in September to here in October. However, the NYRA based horses have not fared as well, as those runners that last races there are only 3-25 at this meet. That stat looms large going into this race where the morning line favorite, Proctor Street (#9) and the second choice, A Lilac Rolla (#7) are both shipping here from the Spa. Both of those runners make sense, but there could be some value with Strikingly Spun (#3) in this race, coming here after a 4th place finish in her last start at Kentucky Downs. She hasn’t won a race in over a year and her only win on the turf came over two years ago. However, she is an honest filly that has a strong late kick. She had the right set up in a stakes race on Indiana Derby Day two starts ago and she came up a neck short at a nice number that day. She really didn’t get much pace to close into in her last start, which came at this level .She was able to gain some ground and get herself into 4th, about a length behind She’s Lookin Lucky (#4), who she’ll see again today. She was moving well late in her only start on this course 2 ½ years ago and horses that finish strong have been faring well at this meet. Jose Ortiz has been heating up at this meet, winning seven races last week. Three of his nine wins at the meet have come in turf route races and he’ll get the return call today. Proctor Street  has been really good in her six starts, winning three of them. Her dam was a talented, multiple graded stakes winning mare on the turf, but it’s fair to point out that she was 0-3 in her three starts on the Keeneland turf. She’s coming off a strong effort where she finished third in the Perfect Sting Stakes at Saratoga. Walsh gives the reins back to Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for her N1X score at Saratoga last summer. A Lilac Rolla was also last seen in the Perfect String Stakes at Saratoga where she had to overcome a tough break to earn her 5th place finish, two lengths behind the favorite. She does get to run with raceday Lasix for the first time and that certainly could give her a little boost to finish better in her third North American start. 

Race 9:

We’ll end the card with a $30K starter allowance race for fillies and mares going seven furlongs. In addition to having a start for a $30K tag or less, horses also must qualify for the N3L condition to be eligible for this race. There’s two horses that feel like they’re well spotted in this race and price disparity feels like it could be uneven. Dozen Diamonds (#9) is 9-2 on the morning line and is the top pick while getting back on the dirt for the first time in almost two years. Her lone start on the dirt came in the 2023 Golden Rod Stakes where she finished 4th. She was beaten six lengths, but she was only a length behind Thorpedo Anna in that spot. Even though that talented filly didn’t run her best race that day, it tells me that this four year old can compete on the dirt. She was claimed for $50K then had to go to the sidelines for a bit. She comes back in a seven furlong sprint after previously racing in a two turn turf race. Chris Hartman has good numbers first off the claim and he’s 3-17 with runners first off the claim after a 61-180 day layoff. Golden Irish (#10) in the stall next door is the main competition. She was a beat last out when winning a N1X $50K starter allowance race at Churchill at this distance. She moves up slightly in class and ships here. Her worst career race came on this oval in the spring, and I do worry about a possible bounce after a career top effort. She’ll be a very short price in this race but she still feels like a horse that could regress and still win this race. 

2025 Fall Meet Statistics (As of 10/12/25), Top Pick Winners:

17/77 (22.1%), $120.74, $1.57 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.