Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 10/23/25 – By Eric Solomon

The Thursday card at Keeneland is headlined by a pair of competitive allowance races that drew small, but mighty fields. As per usual during this fall meet, there are several nice races for two year olds today as well. First post for this nine race program is set for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Three year olds and up will go 1 ⅛ miles on the main track in this $20K N2L claimer that kicks off the afternoon. Strummin (#3) is probably one of the more productive horses that you’ll find in a race at this level. He cost $12K in January of 2023, and he’s bankrolled over $138K in 11 career starts. He was competitive in some early two year old races and his maiden score at Ellis was good enough for him to be considered for the Grade 3 Iroquois last year. That race started a downward spiral for this Flameaway gelding who is looking to right the ship after two months on the sidelines. He’s a grinding type, so while others are going in the wrong direction in this longer route race, I think he could be finishing better than some of the others. I think he has a chance to pull off the upset here. The morning line favorite is Sprint Out Pass (#7), who is a major player. After not showing much early initiative in two turn races, he cut back to seven furlongs last month at Churchill when facing $16K N2L claimers. He drew post 12 for that race and Cristian Torres went on the attack, putting him on the lead. The offensive minded tactics worked well until he was caught in the late stages, losing by less than a length. That was his best effort since his maiden breaking victory at Oaklawn back in March. I think Torres might try to put him on the lead or stalk the pace if the Belterra shipper, No Take Backs (#1) is asked for early speed from the rail. I’m expecting him to be in a good striking position and I’m thinking his class will make him tough to beat here. On deeper tickets, I think Cloudy Holiday (#9) is worth a look. He’s making his second start off the layoff and shipping in from Prairie Meadows in Iowa. He is winless on the dirt, but he’s held his own in those races. He has a strong effort at this distance on the turf last summer. Kelli Martinez has done well with her Iowa shippers at this meet, winning with two and having a third runner hit the board from only six starters. She has decent numbers with new acquisitions as well. I prefer him underneath, but if he’s sitting there at or around his 20-1 morning line price, I wouldn’t be adverse to throwing a few bucks on him to win.

Race 2:

The first two year old race of the day is a maiden special weight contest going about seven furlongs over the dirt on the Beard Course. Starship Warpspeed, who is the dam of Leading Change (#6), the morning line favorite in this race, has had six other foals to race. Five of those six runners were winners at first asking. The lone black sheep of the family, finished third, beaten less than two lengths. These are horses that have won quality races at top tier circuits. Shedaresthedevil was a debut winner for Brad Cox and that one went on to beat Swiss Skydiver and Gamine in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks. More recently, Cox trained another half sibling, Star of Wonder, to a debut win at a one turn mile at Churchill. That one most recently finished third in the Pimlico Special. While I’ll concede that anything can happen in these races, the horses that have started have not made much of an impression on the track. While there are some other nice firsters, no one has the precocity coupled with the human talents of this horse. I’m not trying to beat him in this race. I’ll back up with Forever Rocket (#8) in this race, for Frank Fletcher Racing Operations and Riley Mott. Mott’s father trained his full sister, Frank’s Rockette, who was a smashing debut winner at two in a five furlong race. She was a very talented sprinter, but she did her best work at six furlongs. She was winless in her one turn, seven furlong races throughout her career. I would have much rather seen this one debut in one of the six furlong maiden races last weekend. However, the pedigree has worked in the past, so I’ll give that one a chance again here. 

Race 3:

The featured allowance race on the card is for fillies and mares, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. I think this is a great spot for Twirling Queen (#3). I thought she had a sneaky chance in the Grade 3 Caress Stakes at Saratoga this summer when going off at 16-1. She gave me a thrill, leading most of the way before getting nailed on the wire by a few horses, most notably Future is Now, who is arguably the best horse in the filly and mare turf sprint division. She didn’t fare well against that one later in the summer when she finished off the board in the Smart N Fancy Stakes. While she was disappointing when finishing second last out at Colonial, I think this is a very good spot for her. There’s not a ton of legitimate speed, so I think she’ll be able to make the lead without having to work terribly hard. There’s a chance that Youalmosthadme (#4) or Twirl Around (#5) could be sent for speed, so if that happens, Saez has proven in the past that he’s comfortable rating with this filly as well. Her form has been up and down this year, but I think she’s capable of firing her best shot in this race. Oujda (#6) is the main threat, and she’s coming off a pair of decent efforts in stakes company at Woodbine and Kentucky Downs. She has some tactical speed, but she does her best work when coming from off the pace. She does get Lasix again today after running without it last time out. Perhaps that will be the difference maker, but at very short odds, I do wonder if this distance is going to be a touch too short for her.

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in this $50K starter allowance race. There have been some other $50K starter allowance contests at this meet that have had other restrictions. The only restriction here is that a horse must have either started for a $50K claiming tag at least once or they broke their maiden in an auction maiden special weight race. As a result, this is a deeper field than some of those other races. There’s not a ton than separates Askari (#5) and Sweetalkingbourbon (#6) in this race, but I do think that Askari is coming out of the tougher race. Both horses ran well in their last start and while Sweetalkingbourbon has more experience on the dirt, I think the fact that Askari has only two starts on conventional dirt with both efforts being quite sharp, is a definite advantage for this one. I expect both of these horses to be close to the front here, which gives the slight edge to Askari, who is drawn inside of the favorite. Christopher Davis has had a pair of winners at this meet from seven starters. He’s generally a consistent horse, so I think he’ll be very tough to deal with if he does continue to progress. Sweetalkingbourbon was third behind Indy Magic at Saratoga and that one came back to win a restricted claiming race here the other day. He’s definitely a contender, but I’ll give my preference to a longer priced horse coming out of what I perceive to be the tougher race. 

Race 5:

There’s plenty of horizontal wagering implications with this maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going one mile over the turf course. This race is the last leg in the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 and it is the first leg in the Late Pick-5 and the All-Turf Pick-3. I made the cleverly named longshot, Paseo (#8) the top pick in this race. She is stretching out to two turns after debuting in a 6 ½ furlong maiden allowance at Kentucky Downs at the end of August. She was lingering near the back of the pack while they were rolling down the hill, but she finished with interest, making up a decent amount of ground to be 7th, beaten only three lengths in that race. The winner of that race came back to run a close third in the Matron Stakes and the third place finisher, who was only two lengths better than her, came back to win a nice maiden special weight race in New York. The dam, Walkabout, foaled the Grade 3 winning turf router, Walkathon, who was also campaigned by Ian Wilkes. That one improved a lot in her second start and I thought this filly ran a better race than her older sister. I think she’s a live longshot at 20-1 on the morning line. Brendan Walsh and Brad Cox sending out well bred fillies with turf pedigrees certainly are part of the reason for the top pick’s long odds. Both Amberglen (#9) for Cox and Love and Grace (#10) for Walsh, have live looks in this race. Both barns are more than capable of winning on debut with a two year old going two turns on the grass. Over the last five years Cox has won with 15 of 82 (18%) debuting two year olds in turf routes, while Walsh has won with 11 of 72 (15%) of them. Surprisingly, Cox has only debuted two babies in turf routes here over the last five years and both of those runners finished off the board. Walsh is 2-8 (25%) with his babies that debut in turf routes on this course. Those numbers have likely been affected with the prominence of Kentucky Downs and the enormous purses that offered there. The dam of Love and Grace, is Zoffelle, who was a Grade 3 winner in states while the dam of Amberglen won her only race in her debut overseas. Both fillies are the first foals from their respective mothers to race. I’ll give the slight edge to Love and Grace, but at this point, it does feel like splitting hairs. A deeper tickets play could be the Kitten’s Joy first time starter, Eve (#11). Axel Concepcion will ride this Kitten’s Joy filly for Rusty Arnold. Kitten’s Joy was a really good turf horse in the states in 2024 and 2025, but he might have made a bigger mark as a sire since his runners changed the face of North American turf runners when they burst on the scene in the late 2000’s. As he’s aged, he’s covered less horses and some of his stats have gone down. This filly is a good mix of speed and stamina as the dam was a stakes winning turf sprinter. She’ll need a trip, but she’s another runner that has a shot here. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $50K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. These races at Keeneland are always a little tough to figure out because they often have some horses that cost their connections a pretty penny and they’re being offered here in some cases for pennies on the dollar. There are plenty of decent pedigrees here, especially when talking about horses that are likely to have success in two turn routes. I think Charisma (#6) is a candidate to improve at two turns in this race. He was claimed for $50K when making his debut in a seven furlong maiden claiming race in the slop at Churchill last month. Jordan Blair takes over the conditioning and brings him back at the same level while adding blinkers. He was slow to find his stride last out, lingering near the back of the pack. He did get moving late, passing several horses to get into third. The added distance along with the blinkers should help him start off in a more competitive spot. The dam was a Grade 2 winner, scoring the Gulfstream Park Oaks and then finishing second in the Black Eyed Susan. Hamlet (#11) is another horse with an interesting pedigree that is making his first start for new connections. His sire, War of Will, was a Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt. He’s a half to Lea, who was a Grade 1 winner on dirt and a Grade 3 winner on the turf. The dam has produced other useful horses, but this one didn’t seem to get those great genes. Claiborne Farm was willing to part with him for $30K after his debut in the turf this summer at Ellis. Paul McGee has strong numbers with horses going from turf to dirt, and his numbers with new acquisitions aren’t shabby either. I don’t love the draw, but I think this horse has every right to run a better race at this level on the dirt. Private Show (#5) didn’t show a lot in his debut in maiden allowance company at the Fair Grounds last November when he was last seen on the track. He’s been sidelined since and has been working well for his return. Gary and Mary West are willing to see him leave the barn for a $50K price tag, which is not something I love to see. However, Cox does well with these kinds of runners, so this is not one that I want to exclude. 

Race 7:

Two year olds will go 1 1/16 miles on the turf in this N2L allowance race. I think Easy Wind (#1) has a big chance in this race. He was a winner on debut in a maiden optional claiming race when sprinting on the turf at Ellis. He was competitive in start two at Kentucky Downs when running in allowance company there. He ran at this level at Churchill last month. The runner-up in that race drew off down the backstretch. He waited patiently behind runners, but as the field started to stack up, he found himself in some tight spots with nowhere to go .Edgar Morales might have been a shade timid with him, as it appeared he didn’t try to drive him though a narrow opening before it closed up. He switched out to the outside and finished with interest, getting up for 5th, but beaten only two lengths. I like the rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione in this race. Even though he’s not having his best meet, he’s still riding well, finishing second and third about 3 ½ times more than he’s winning. Brendan Walsh’s runners have been live all meet long and I think this one can get the job done with a smoother trip and ride. Expressway (#9) is the backup in this race for me. He is making his first start at two turns after two six furlong sprints in New York to start his career. He ran well to be 4th in the Grade 3 Futurity there earlier this month. He’s sired by Hard Spun out of a Stroll mare, so two turns on the turf should be well within his reach. I like the spot better for the top pick, but he is certainly live in this spot. 

Race 8: 

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race. There’s a field of six entered in this race, and the heavy favorite on the morning line is Sam’s Treasure (#4), starting off at 6-5. In races like this, I try to run through scenarios in which I think the favorite could be beaten. Barring some big turnaround in form, I don’t think Xtreme Smoke Show (#1), Caress (#3) or Lover Girl (#5) are fast enough to win this race. That leaves Tanya Showers (#2) or Ervadean (#6) as potentially viable alternatives to the morning line favorite. Both of these are horses are coming off layoffs with Tanya Showers making her first start since March and Ervadean making her first start since June. Looking at the trainers, Chris Hartman, the trainer of Tanya Showers, tends to do better with horses coming off the bench than Dallas Stewart (Ervadean) does. However, I think the outside draw, might give Ervadean the tactical advantage in this race. I think Caress is going to go to the front, but she has been in a classic speed and fade pattern, so I don’t trust that she’s going to be finishing this race with any kind of gusto. Ervadean has run credible efforts of this kind of layoff in the past. She was fairly sharp over the winter at the Fair Grounds, and while that may simply be her favorite course, I do see a path where she could rebound after a pair of dull efforts. I think she can put token pressure on Caress in the early stages and get the jump on both Tanya Showers and Sam’s Treasure. Tanya Showers has cleared this condition, so she is entered for a tag for the first time in her 15 race career. She’s earned over three times her purchase price and she runs for owners that aren’t in the breeding game, so this drop is not terribly concerning. She often leaves herself too much work to do, and I don’t think she’s going to get the pace scenario she needs to win this race. I prefer here as a deeper saver and a horse that is better served underneath in the vertical exotics. Sam’s Treasure might also benefit from a stronger pace on the front end. She is very good on a fast surface and this distance is her sweet spot. She makes too much sense to leave  off tickets. 

Race 9:

We’ll close things out with a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares, three and up, going one mile over the turf course. The Palace Girl (#8) makes a lot of sense in this race. She makes her North American debut a year after her one and only start overseas at The Curragh in Ireland. She ran well to be second in that race, but she went to the sidelines and shows up here, running now for William Walden. He’s done well with a limited number of first time imports that he’s sent out and his numbers with new acquisitions overall are strong. John Velazquez has been riding this course extremely well and he’ll get the assignment today. Lady Iva (#10) was very sharp when debuting at Ellis in a sprint, posting a big figure while just missing. She came back in a two turn race at Churchill where she was installed as the even money favorite. She broke from the rail and settled off the leaders down inside. Morales was hoping for a seam to open up, but it never did. This filly had absolutely nowhere to go for the entire duration of that stretch run. I do think that race will prove to be educational and with her pedigree, I see no reason why she can’t handle the mile trip. I do think this was another passive ride by Edgar Morales on the turf though. Bret Calhoun will give him the opportunity for redemption today. 

2025 Fall Meet Statistics (As of 10/19/25), Top Pick Winners:

28/120 (23.3%), $279.40, $2.33 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.