Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 10/9/25 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a strong 10 race card this afternoon at Keeneland. As can be expected here, there are several very nice allowance races that could be stakes races at other tracks. The forecast is calling for temperate and dry conditions throughout the rest of the week in Lexington, Kentucky, so the grass races should be able to go off as intended. First post for the first Sunday card of the meet is 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Two year olds will start off the day in this $40K N2L claiming race going six furlongs over the main track. While I don’t love backing horses with strong figures on sloppy tracks, I do love the way that Just Like Max (#5) won on debut. He was in the middle of the pack on a wet and dreary day at Churchill, but after taking a lot of mud in the face, he was able to tip out into the four path and drive home a much the best winner that day. The 4th place finisher, C.P.A. Jim was scheduled to run Wednesday here, so if that one runs well, it would certainly be flattering to this one today. Genaro Garcia is a sharp claiming trainer and he saw something that he liked with this Maximum Security colt. I think he can win again with this group. Fistfulofmoney (#9) is slated to make his 6th start today for Kevin Rice. He debuted in an auction maiden special weight on the dirt at Churchill where he finished a close second. He broke his maiden in his next start on synthetic at Presque Isle. He was outclassed in his next two starts in stakes company before finishing 4th in an allowance race back at his home base in Erie, PA. While he hasn’t moved forward a ton, I do think he could be a horse that prefers the dirt to the synthetic, and if that is true, he stands to move forward in this spot today. After Party (#1) comes here from Gulfstream after being privately purchased by David Jacobsen following his maiden breaking victory with $25K maiden claimers. He was a gate to wire winner that day, showing improvement when getting on the dirt for the first time. This is a class test for him and I think the maiden race that the top pick is coming out of was a tougher spot than the Gulfstream race that he won. I also don’t love playing favorites that were easy front-running winners in their last start. I do like that Gaffalione is riding and typically, Jacobsen does a nice job spotting his horses. He’s worth using as a backup in this spot, and if this course feels very speed friendly on Wednesday, I’d probably be thinking about upgrading him. 

Race 2:

A field of nine is entered in this $50K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going 6 ½ furlongs. I’d be surprised if the winner of this race was someone other than either Alias (#4) or Don’t Ghost Me (#7). Both horses are horses that ran in the Mid-Atlantic region who are dropping in for a tag for the first time. The price will likely more more appealing on Alias, so I’ll make him the narrow top pick in this spot. I assume that Gaffalione is going to try to put him on the lead and try to take him as far as he can go .He’s been on the sidelines since February after folding late in a maiden allowance at Laurel. Since then, he’s transferred to William Walden, who is still likely celebrating his Grade 1 score in the Coolmore Turf Mile here on Saturday. The works at Churchill are solid for a horse that appears ready to go. Don’t Ghost Me is going to be the prohibitive favorite in this one after three strong starts at Colonial and Delaware on the main track. He’s been a beaten favorite in the last two starts, but he ran well in both of those races. He fits well with this group and should be right in the picture at the end, trying hard to run down the top pick. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 starter allowance contest. These races are always competitive and they often attract horses from multiple different circuits. Here we have horses that last raced at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Prairie Meadows, Belterra, Ellis, Churchill, and Santa Anita in this eight horse field. This race runs through the favorite, Motown Dynamic (#6) though. She’s going to go to the front and she’s going to be hard to run down. She comes here from Iowa, riding a four race winning streak, and a five race winning streak at this distance. She has faced smaller fields of late, but on paper, there’s no real competition for her in the early stages of this one. Unless we’re seeing on Wednesday and in the first two races today that front-runners are absolutely falling apart on the lead, she feels like a very solid bet in this field. Sassy and Bold (#8) is the backup play for me in this race. Her outside draw should allow her to stay within range on the top pick in the early stages. She wasn’t bad at Churchill in her last start when facing a slightly better field in starter allowance company there. She has racked up seven career wins in 20 starts and five of them have come at this six furlong distance. However, many of those wins came at lower tier racetracks. I do like her fit in this race and if she’s overlooked in the wagering, she might be more attractive.

Race 4:

We’ll go to the turf for the first time with this maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going 1 ⅛ miles. There’s an overflow field of 16 entered in this one, but the maximum number of starters will be 12. I really like a price in this race, so I’m going to make Queen Dancing (#6) one of my best bets on the card. She makes her second career start for Bill Mott today after finishing in the middle of the pack when debuting at 6 ½ furlongs at Kentucky Downs. This is a horse bred to handle long distances on the turf, so I think that last race was all about getting an education. The dam was the winner of the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup in 2014, and she has foaled a runner that has a win on this course. Both of her two other fails to race in the states were winners in their second career starts. Mott trained the dam and he trained both of those foals. He’s sired by Kingman, who progeny do very well in North American turf route races. He gets 24% winners (12-49) with horses making their first route on the turf. John Velazquez had five wins here on Saturday, making him the hottest rider on the track right now. She’s listed at 12-1 on the morning and I’m hopeful that she’ll be flying under the radar throughout the wagering. Both of the shorter prices are horses that often fire, but keep coming up short. I’ll give the slight advantage to Weighted Average (#10), who will be the backup for me in this race. She’s cutting back in distance after narrowly missing at 1 5/16 miles at Kentucky Downs in her last start. With the exception of one start at Churchill where she ran poorly and was subsequently sidelined for almost a year, her other five starts have been strong. She might be a better play underneath, especially with a price play on top like the top pick. However, she’s worth using as a saver on some deeper plays here. 

Race 5:

The Early Pick-5 ends and the Pick-6 begins with this $30K maiden claiming race for two year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. As is often the case at Keeneland, they card races like this for both fillies and open company, and I thought there was somewhat of a standout in the race that was open to colts and geldings on yesterday’s card. I see this race as much more wide open and definitely harder to figure out. Seeing as how I think you can get a little skinny with your multi-race wagers in the 3rd and 4th race, this is definitely a spot where I’d want some coverage. I think foundation can be meaningful in these races, so I’m going to roll with My Secret Dreams (#1) on the rail as the top pick in this spot. He’s sired by Summer Front, who was best known for his ability on the turf, however, his runners are winning 14% of the time in dirt races. This one tried a sloppy course on debut at Ellis, and where she drew the rail. She showed some early speed, but she had to check out of a tight spot, and didn’t seem to be comfortable the rest of the race. She took a lot of mud to the face though, so I didn’t see that race as a deterrent to try her back on the dirt. She faced tougher fields in her last two starts, which both came in mile races on the turf at Ellis and Kentucky Downs. This will be the first time she’s running in a true maiden claiming race, so the class relief should help her out. At the end of the day, I think those mile races will help her stay on in a race where there are several stretch-out sprinters and I’m not sure how far some of them want to go at this point in their careers. Golexgo (#2) is a second time starter from the freshman sire, Lexitonian. He did his best work at one turn, so it was interesting to see this one debut at two turns. She finished third, a long ways behind the first and second place finishers at this level at Churchill. I’m not sure there’s a true standout in this field, so I think it’s reasonable to expect her to be closer at the wire today.  I do like betting Ken McPeek horses that are stretching out to two turn races, and that’s what we have with the favorite in this spot, Beach of Dreams (#9). She has two starts, one at six furlongs and the other at seven furlongs, so this seems like a natural time to try to stretch her out to two turns. She ran well on debut at Ellis in a small, four horse field. She took some money at the windows last out at Saratoga in a race that was originally scheduled to be run on the dirt. I would have liked to have seen her run a little better in that one, especially when coming back in a race where she’s likely going into the gate as the favorite. I don’t see a ton of other viable choices though. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a conditioned allowance race for three years who have never won a graded stakes on the turf. They’ll sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the lawn in this race with rails set at 30 feet. This is quite an interesting group as there are four runners that are undefeated in turf sprint races here. Both Can’t Deny It (#6) and Operation Sunrise (#8) are horses that have thrived on the front end in their turf sprint races. Can’t Deny It is making his first start since a string effort at the Fair Grounds back in March. He got a bit of a breather in the second quarter and had everything his own way while he was opening up on a nice field there. The runner up in that race came back to win the William Walker Stakes at Churchill in his next start. Operation Sunrise was a gate to wire winner at Kentucky Downs. The opening quarter for that race was a bit slow, but the tempo picked up in the second part of that race and he was able to take them all the way. Assuming both horses are running, I think it could be a slugfest on the front end, which should set the table for Litigation (#1), who has been flawless in his two turf sprint races , both of which came at Ellis. He wasn’t able to draw into the Franklin Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs, which kind of left him with a good spot to make his next start. He’s not likely ready to take on older horses in a race like the Woodford that was run here last weekend, and missing that race at Kentucky Downs late in the meet likely eliminated him from a different possible spot there. Brian Lynch does very well with turf sprinters, winning 25% of the time with them since the start of 2024. This horse has found a niche and clearly has some quality. Operation Sunrise is probably better suited to withstand a pace battle than Can’t Deny It, so he’d be the logical backup for me. He’s drawn outside and Johnny V. can pick and choose when to turn up the pressure on Can’t Deny It, who could be a little light while making his first start in seven months. Mischief River (#7) is 1-1 in turf sprint races, scoring at 6 ½ furlongs on the front end at Kentucky Downs in his last start. He had the speed to go gate to wire that day, but I don’t think he needs to run that kind of race to be competitive here. While I wonder if the 5 ½ furlong distance here will be a little short, I think he’ll stand a fighting chance if Frankie Dettori can get him to rate kindly in this sprint. 

Race 7:

Two year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this maiden special weight race. Kayla’s Komet (#1) ran well on debut at six furlongs, but when looking at the pedigrees of some of her rivals in this race, I’m not sure how well she’ll stack up at two turns. I feel like this is a good spot to take a swing against her. I’ll make the top pick here Bisclarvet (#6) for George Weaver. She’s a full sister to Howling Time, who was a stakes winner who was also graded stakes placed. The dam’s other runners were better on the turf, so it wasn’t surprising to see her debut on the lawn at two turns at the Spa. Deep Learning was the winner of that race, which came back as one of the faster two year old maiden races on the turf of the Saratoga meet. Weaver does well moving from turf to dirt, so I’m expecting this one to be able to pick up where she left off. Atropa (#4) is the second horse to race from the Grade 3 winning mare Bellera. Her first foal hasn’t done much in two starts, but this will be her first start competing at two turns. I’ll forgive the dull effort on a sealed and sloppy course in her debut. Cherie DeVaux has not had a great start to her meet, but I do see this filly as a live runner. Melody Maker (#2) is one two runners that Mark Casse is sending out in this race. While her stablemate, Measure (#9) is a little bit of a short price on the morning line (4-1 compared to 5-1), I think this Maclean’s Music filly has the better shot. She’s another runner that debuted on the turf. She went in a 6 ½ maiden allowance race at Kentucky Downs. She was making headway late to get into third that day. She stretches out to two turns and changes surfaces, which should suit her better. Her dam was a multiple graded stakes winner on the dirt and she has foaled a stakes winner going long on the dirt. 

Race 8:

The last turf race of the day is a N2X allowance contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. There is another overflow field of 16 entered in this spot where only a maximum of 12 will start. If the undefeated Argentinian shipper, Cima de Areco (#1) is as good as advertised, they might be running for second place here. She made four starts in her career, all of which came at San Isidro in Argentina. She ended her 2024 with a Group 2 and Group 1 win in turf stakes races there. She joined Graham Motion’s contingent at Fair Hill at the end of August and has been working there consistently since. Motion usually picks his spots carefully when shipping to Keeneland, and he has a good track record with first time imports. She’s going to be on my tickets, but there are enough questions about how good her wins actually were, I am going to look to see if we can get better value elsewhere. I landed on Malleymoo (#5) as the top pick in this race. She has been knocking on the door at this level, but has failed to break through when facing some fairly salty fields. She was a stakes winner at three, finishing the Winner’s Circle in the Penn Oaks. Since then there have been barn changes and some gaps in the running lines that are less than ideal. She wasn’t great in her last start at Kentucky Downs, but sometimes that can be a positive. Some horses don’t like running on the European style course with the varying undulations and the unconventional layout. We saw many horses come back with better efforts here last year after a subpar race there last season. I’m thinking Chad Brown might have some answers with her. It seems to be a theme at this meet in regard to talent that is left on the AE list. Johanny (#14) needs two defections to get into the body of this field. She would make her third start off the layoff if she gets in and she’d be trying to rebound after a dull effort in a Grade 3 race on the Tapeta in Canada. She has some efforts that would be competitive on this course, so if she gets in, she could be rolling late. On deeper tickets, I’d look for some coverage with both Partir (#7) and Cairo Street (#11). Partir made three starts in the US after coming here from France. She ran her best race on this oval in the spring and she had some excuses for her less than stellar tries in her last two. She’ll need to get a fair start to be in consideration for the win here. However, when she’s on, she’s another one that could be getting involved in the late stages. Cairo Street comes here after three straight wins on the lawn at Colonial Downs. She moved up the class ladder nicely there at their recently concluded meet. This will be a class test, but her regular rider, Forest Boyce, has come along for the ride. 

Race 9:

Three year olds and up will sprint seven furlongs on the main track in this N1X allowance race that starts off the late double. 14 entered this race, but there will be a maximum of 12 starters. There are a lot of ways to go in this race, but I think if Be You (#1) is right, which is a big if, he is the best horse in the race. He debuted in one of the toughest maiden special weight races of the 2023 season at Saratoga, narrowly losing to Just Steel. He finished in front of Grade 1 winners Locked and Domestic Product. He was dull in stakes races and two turn races before he showed his  brilliance when breaking his maiden at this distance on the Fountain of Youth card last year at Gulfstream. After that, he was subpar in two Grade 1 races before an injury put him on the sidelines. He’s been gelded since his last start and he’s trying to restart his career in this race. He might need a start before we see whatever his best effort is at this point. However, when he’s been appropriately spotted, he typically fires, and we know Pletcher can get a horse ready to perform off the bench. I don’t think we’re getting 10-1 on him, but this is a wide open race and I think anything in the 5-1 range or better feels like a fair price with him. Pursuitneversleeps (#10) has three strong sprint races in four starts, with his only dull effort being his lone start at two turns. He ran a brilliant race in the slop after the Derby this year to break his maiden at this distance. He faltered in June but rebounded nicely with a near miss at this level at Ellis last time out. This son of Ghostzapper could be a nice sprinter for Dale Romans if he can move forward a little bit. On deeper tickets, there are a few longshots in this race that are going to be completely overlooked. One of them is Dreaminblue (#4) who is listed at 30-1 on the morning line. This one was really good at times at Oaklawn this past winter, running two nice races in maiden company in December and January. He was in too deep in the Rebel and then he struggled in his last start against winners at the Oaklawn meet. He ran okay in an off the turf race at five furlongs in Churchill and his last two efforts have come on the grass. He’s a horse that looks like he’ll appreciate the seven furlong trip. He should appreciate the return to the dirt and the fact that he has been gelded since his last start could help him here. He’s not the worst price stab in this race. 

Race 10:

There’s another overflow field with 15 fillies and mares entered in this $20K N2L claiming race at six furlongs. Ride the Broom (#11) is the top pick in this wide open finale. She came up empty with $50K N2L claimers in her last start at Churchill, but her race two back at that level would be good enough to beat this group. She’s kept a better class of rivals than the majority of runners in this field. McKinzie Magic (#3) tried the turf for the first time last out in Indiana and it didn’t go well. Her dirt efforts prior to that are likely good enough to compete at this level. In terms of horses that could have some upside, perhaps look at the lightly raced, Bridgie Bop (#10). She was claimed for $16K by Matt Williams in her last start at Churchill. She went to post as the favorite in that race, but she had to settle for 4th. She was trying a sloppy course for the first time and she was struggling to switch leads in the stretch, which didn’t help her cause. She moves up a level in class and she will have to be better to win here. However, Williams has a nice track record with runners off the claim and moving from a sloppy course to a fast course could be enough to propel her forward. 

2025 Fall Meet Statistics (As of 10/5/25), Top Pick Winners:

5/31 (30%), $27.22, $0.88 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.