Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 4/17/25 – By Eric Solomon

Nine races are on tap this Thursday at Keeneland and four of them are carded for the turf. The weather looks dry so these four races, which all drew full fields, should go off without a hitch. The 7th race is the featured race today, which is a N2X allowance race going 1 ½ miles over the turf course. Steve Asmussen is closing in on 11,000 career wins as trainer, a mark that he’ll likely get to before the end of summer this year. He wins tons of races at the best tracks year in and year out. However, his runners have struggled at Keeneland, winning with only 7% of his starters here over the last four years. However, he has some live mounts today and if a prop bet existed for the chances of him having a multi-win day here today, I would take that. There are times when you have to pay a heavy tax for backing an Asmussen horse you like at other tracks, but that’s not usually the case here. I like a few of his runners today quite a bit. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $30K starter allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 ⅛ miles over the main track. In addition to having to have at least one start with a $30K claiming tag on their resumes, horses also must qualify for the N3L condition to be competing in this race. There’s not much speed signed on for this race, so I’d think that Brian Hernandez Jr. might be trying to steal this one the front end with First of His Name (#3). He finished 4th in two starts at this distance against strong fields last summer at Ellis. He came back from a six month layoff and was entered in a claiming race at Turfway which he won in gate to wire fashion. William Cowans has had him for a little over a month now and I like this spot for his second start off the break. Maybe Jose Ortiz and Gorilla Trek (#2) will put some token pressure on him, but he should be able to cruise to an easy early lead in this race. I think he fits well with this group and should prove tough to run down, especially if he’s afforded soft fractions on the lead. The main danger should be the favorite, National Eclipse (#7). He’s getting a little class relief after a pair of strong efforts in New Orleans. He’s going to take the bulk of the money at the windows with two strong Beyer Figures in a row. However, in these longer races, the jockey’s decisions tend to be magnified, and if this is going to come down to a rider’s race, I’m going to side with Hernamdez here. I’ll use the favorite as the backup here. 

Race 2:

The first of a quartet of turf races at Keeneland today is a maiden special weight contest for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. Todd Pletcher comes into this week with a 1-16 record at the meet, so it’s hard to get excited about backing his morning line favorite in this spot, Double Jeopardy (#4). She’s a beautifully bred filly by Uncle Mo out of the Grade 1 winning mare, Avenge. She’s now had four runners make it to the races, and two of them were winners on debut in sprint races. None of the other three horses to race have won a race beyond 6 ½ furlongs, in spite of those two winners being sired by Curlin. She could wind up beating me in this spot, but I see her as a favorite to try to beat. I think Pretty Tapit (#3) is really interesting in this race. She ran twice on the dirt and didn’t do much in either start here or at Churchill. Asmussen brought her to the Fair Grounds and tried her on the turf. The trouble line in the first start said she “bobbled” at the break. I’m fascinated by the different definitions of “bobbling” from different chart-callers across the country. She went to her knees at the break and then took a very awkward step with her hind legs. That break cost her several lengths on her rivals and pretty much eliminated any chance she had of winning. She rallied mildly from the back of the pack to split the field that day. She improved considerably in her second start, but she had several spots of trouble in that race. She was bumped hard at the break and then forced to steady on the first turn. She closed with interest, but she had to alter course twice in the final ¼ mile, and still came within two lengths of winning that race. Rosario will be the 5th different jockey to ride her in as many starts. I’d like to see him try to get her closer to the front end in the early stages as there’s not a ton of speed in this spot. The courses she was on at the Fair Grounds were labeled good, and while I don’t think the course will be extra firm, it will likely be firmer than it was in New Orleans. This will be her third try and if she can work out some racing luck, I think she stacks up very well with this group. Rather Distinct (#8) is coming out of the same race, and she was a half length better than the top pick. She had an easier trip that day and really, she was the problem or part of the problem for the top pick in her last three spots of trouble. I didn’t love the way was traveling in that race, but she doesn’t have the most fluid stride to begin with. When watching her previous start on a firm course, she was traveling better, so perhaps she wasn’t loving the softer going. She makes her third start off for Eddie Kenneally, who has had a very good start to this meet, winning with 4 of 12 starters going into the week. I think the upside and the price is better with the top pick, but I think this Justify filly makes a lot of sense as a backup. The same could be said for Sweet Mackenzie (#11) for Jena Antonucci, who is looking for her second winner of the meet. She started from post 11 for her debut at Gulfstream last month after drawing in off the AE list. She was traveling very well and got a strong ride from Jose Morelos, especially getting over to the rail on the first turn. She was forced to be widest of all while rallying on the second turn, all while a talented first time starter hugged the rail and scampered away to win by open lengths. She is stuck in a tricky post again and she may be a bit pace compromised in this race. However, I think it’s fair to say that she showed some ability in her debut and she could be a candidate to move forward here. She might need one more before she’s ready to graduate, but I think she’s playable in this race as well. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint seven furlongs in this beaten $20K claiming race. Much like the race for males at this condition, there are a few three year olds entered, but everyone in this race qualified under the N3L condition. Belleofthebluegrass (#7) gets back on the dirt for the first time since last June today. She’s been on a steady diet of turf and synthetic sprint races since that one turn mile race at Churchill. She ran a respectable race here last spring when finishing second to Kehoe Beach, who is a pretty talented racehorse. That one is better on the turf and just finished third in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last week. She doesn’t have a lot of experience on a fast dirt track, but I do think she makes sense at this distance and at this level of competition. Where’s the Wine (#2) is the morning line favorite in this race, cutting back in distance after finishing third in her last two starts in $30K N3L claiming races at the Fair Grounds. She was a winner in an off the turf race there three starts ago, so she seems to be capable of running a quality race on any surface. She’s sired by Mitole out of a Quality Road mare, so I do think this distance might be a sweet spot for her. On deeper tickets, I think one of the three year old fillies, Midnight Blaze (#6) could be a candidate to move forward in this spot. She had a pair of nice efforts at the Fair Grounds over the winter, breaking her maiden in an off the turf maiden claiming race in December and then winning again in starter allowance company two starts later. She had no interest in running on the grass in her last start, so she could be overlooked in this spot. While winning might be a tall order in this spot, I do think she’s an interesting price horse to score using underneath. 

Race 4:

A dozen three year olds are entered in this restricted maiden special weight race going six furlongs. In order to run in this a race a horse must have sold or RNA for $65K or less at their latest auction or sale. I’ll try one of the first time starters in this race, and make Araucano (#5) the top pick. Jose D’Angelo had a winner and two other in the money finishers with his first four starters at this meet last week. That tells me that he’s bringing live stock to town from Florida. Irad Ortiz takes the assignment aboard this son of McKinzie, who gets 16% debut winners in dirt sprints. The dam has had a mixed mag of runners, but the works at Palm Meadows look good enough to think he can compete with this group. Backtrack (#10) appears to be the main danger after a strong debut at this level at Turfway. Blinkers will go on after showing some speed that day. He faded late to get third, beaten 2 ½ lengths. Joe Sharp goes with the rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz, who could easily be battling with his brother throughout the stretch in this one. Vix (#1) could be a longshot to keep an eye on in this race. I don’t love the rail draw for this son of Volatile, but the works are decent. Volatile gets 23% winners with firsters in sprints on the dirt and while the dam foaled five other runners that are a combined 1-25 in dirt sprints, there are several of those starts that were competitive in decent races. 

Race 5:

Tons of multi-race action comes to head in this N1X allowance for three year olds and up, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. As is the case with every 5th race here on 9 race programs, this race ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5, and starts the Late Pick-5. However, this race also starts the $3 All-Turf Pick-3 today. In spite of the fact that everyone in this race is still looking for their first career score. While I think the older horses might have an advantage, I’m intrigued with Into Diamonds (#1) in this race. Mark Casse is sending out this three year old filly against older horses for the first time after an encouraging effort on the turf at Gulfstream in February going one mile. He was a winner in a maiden special weight here last year for two year olds at the end of the 2024 Spring Meet. He ran twice on synthetic after that race, once at Woodbine and the other at Gulfstream. Neither race was great, but he did finish in the money both times. He had a wide journey for his two turn test last out over a very fast and firm course in South Florida. He likes the course and makes sense while cutting back in distance. The rail is no picnic, but he should have some pace to close into. George Weaver has had a great run with turf sprinters over the last few years and he sends out Devil in Disguise (#9), who is making his first start since May. He was sharp when winning on debut at Gulfstream on the Tapeta at the end of March. That effort was good enough for her to be considered for the Paradise Creek Stakes. He couldn’t run with Lasix that day and something likely went amiss there as he’s been away since that race. Prat has signed on and Weaver is very sharp off these long layoffs. Creditworthy (#4) makes his first start since breaking his maiden in a fast maiden allowance at the Spa last summer. Chad Brown has not had a great meet, but he did have a winner on Saturday and he probably should have had the winner in the Jenny Wiley. This one has the makings of a nice turf sprinter and Brown can definitely get them ready to roll off the layoff. On deeper tickets, I’ll cover with Send Cash (#5) for Cherie DeVaux. I’m not sure I love him at this distance, but he figures to be the one that is going to set the tempo. There is some other speed signed on, but not a ton. There are some speed types like Monsieur Candy (#13), Johnny Come Lately (#14), and Go Captain (#16) that are stuck on the AE list. If one or more of them draw in, that is going to make this task for Send Cash that much harder. If they are all excluded, I expected Jose Ortiz to get him to the front quickly. 

Race 6: 

This is a strong maiden special weight race for three year old fillies going seven furlongs and 184 feet on the Beard Course here at Keeneland. I think Bundle (#5) for Steve Asmussen has a big chance to win this race in her third career start. She was overmatched in her debut at six furlongs when facing some fast fillies on Risen Star Day at the Fair Grounds. She made her second start in a 1 1/16 mile race where she led most of the way, but tired late when finishing second. She ships here and cuts back to this longer one turn sprint, which as a daughter of Volatile, should be right up her alley. The dam has produced a pair of stakes winners, both of which were campaigned by Asmussen. Jose Ortiz has done extremely well when pairing up with Asmussen, winning 31% of the time over the last 16 months. I have my doubts about the other short prices in this race, so I’m going to be heavily in her camp. Clicquot (#2) does interest me a little bit as a backup in this spot. She was absolutely hammered at the windows at Gulfstream last out when making her debut in a seven furlong race. That tells me that the word was out about this filly in the AM. That buzz didn’t really translate to a big effort though. She was a little bit slow into stride, and then was hard for Gaffalione to handle as she pulled her way to the front. They went fast early and she came up empty late in that race. I’m not very high on that race in general, otherwise, I might be a little more bullish on her in her second start. However, she does have some nice works over this course, so I might want to hedge a little bit with this Brendan Walsh filly. 

Race 7: 

Four year olds and up will go 1 ½ miles in this N2X allowance race on the turf. This feels like a weird spot for Pletcher’s Tucson (#3) in his 4th career start. He was awesome when breaking the maiden on synthetic and he ran very well on that surface when clearing the N1X condition. He movies up in class and stretches out to race ⅜ of a mile more than he has before. He’s doing so against a solid group of runners where some are proven at this longer distance. He could just be a better horse than these, but he feels like a bad favorite. Mike Maker loves claiming horses and re-imagining them as long distance runners, and he does a heck of a job when doing so. He claimed Mutawiid (#2) three starts ago and this one paid immediate dividends by clearing the N1X allowance condition when going 11 furlongs at Gulfstream. He entered him for the tag at that level last out when going this 12 furlong distance and when drawing wide again, he wasn’t able to get the best trip. His post is much more advantageous for the race he wants to run. I expect him to be a little closer to the front than he was last time and then rolling late. Deuteronomy (#8) tries to channel his sire Kitten’s Joy in this marathon contest. He’s been very sharp in four turf tries so far. Shug McGaughey hasn’t had a great start to this meet, but I do see this colt as one of his better options. I like the pedigree to get the distance on both sides and Flavien Prat is not a bad man to have piloting him. Raptor’s (#11) was a Group 1 winner in Brazil at this distance two years ago. He’s only started twice since then though, making his last start at Gulfstream in January. His Woodbine effort in June was much stronger, so there is something still to prove with this gelding. He was entered in a mile race earlier in the meet, but that race was taken off the turf and he defected. He might need this race before we see his best, but I do think he’s worth considering. 

Race 8:

The Late Double begins with a bit of a strange N2L allowance race for three year old fillies going six furlongs. Four of the seven runners have never competed on a fast dirt course, with three of them making their dirt track debuts. It’s also a little weird that only one of the top four riders at the meet is riding in one of the richer races on the card. I’ll try Mascara (#6) on top in this race. She ran well in her first start of the year in a N1X allowance race on the turf at the Fair Grounds last month. Prior to that, she ran twice on the main track, catching sloppy tracks both times. She broke her maiden in a restricted maiden special weight race taken off the turf at the Spa in July. She came back in November in starter allowance company and was a bit flat at Churchill. She was sold earlier in the year for $44K and now makes her second start since being moved to Niccolo Troiani’s barn. Caravaggio is getting 17% winners with dirt sprinters, so there’s reason to believe she can run back to her last race with the surface switch. Mila Rose (#1) makes her first start on dirt after an impressive come from behind made score at Turfway last month. Steve Asmussen has been using Jose Ortiz with his better horses at this meet, so seeing Joseph Ramos named to ride might be a concern. However, he gave this filly a brilliant ride at Turfway to score on debut, so I respect the loyalty that Asmussen is showing the young rider. Horses sired by Vekoma are winning everywhere right now, as his runners have won 23% of the time in dirt sprint races thus far. The price might be a bit too low for me, but she’s definitely a viable option. John Ennis has been ice cold at this meet, but I do think Empirical Mischief (#3) could be a horse that could help him get off the duck. She was really good in her second career when winning at Ellis. That effort was good enough to put her under consideration for the Pocahontas at Churchill in the fall. She was 6th that day and then she ran into Brad Cox’s Eclatant here at the beginning of the Fall Meet. She’s been on the bench since but she’s been amping up her workouts at the The Thoroughbred Training Center.

Race 9:

We’ll end the day with a maiden special weight for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. While I think the first three turf races have some live longshots, I think the favorites have a significant advantage in this race. Chad Brown sends out Portfolio Duration (#4) for Klaravich Stables for the second time in her career. She debuted in a strong maiden special weight race on the Sam F. Davis card at Tampa in February. She battled with her more experienced stablemate and lost by a narrow head. The third place finisher came back to win a month later at Tampa, beating Gum (#7), who should be the third choice in this race. I expect her to move forward in her second start and I think she’s going to be very tough here. The logical alternative is George Arnold’s Love You Anyway (#9). She ran well enough on debut to earn a spot in the starting gate in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks as a maiden. Nitrogen was the winner that day and she finished a little more than six lengths behind that Mark Casse filly who came back to win the Appalachian Stakes here last week. Luis Saez rode a smart race to win the nightcap yesterday and he’ll need to do so to beat the favorite to repeat that feat today. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 4-16-25: 

23/85 (27.1%), $219.67 – $2.58 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.