Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – By Eric Solomon

The final Thursday card of the meet is a nine race program where the first post is 1:00 PM (EDT). There’s only two races carded for the grass this afternoon, so there’s no All Turf Pick-3 wager, however, as per usual, there’s several interesting races for handicappers to sink their teeth into. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Thursday’s card will begin with a$20K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. I’m siding with Royal Laughter (#2) and Coty Rosin in this race. She’ll be making her twelfth career start in this spot and her 6th start since Rosin claimed her for $30K here last fall. She went to the sidelines after that race and resurfaced in February at Oaklawn. Her first start off the break was dull, but she ran a career top Speed Figure in her second start back, just missing at this level in Arkansas. Her two efforts after that race weren’t great and she was sidelined again from April to September. She tried the turf in Illinois when making her first start back. She’s back on her preferred surface and she finds a suspect field for this condition. I see her as the one to beat. I’ll also use Tres Chic (#3) for Ken McPeek and Brian Hernandez. She’s has some recent gaps in her form lines, so fitness is definitely a question mark. McPeek does have good numbers off this kind of layoff and she was a winner on a sloppy course here in the spring. I think she has the ability to move forward, especially if Hernandez can put her into the race early, since there isn’t much early speed signed on. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will sprint 6 ½ furlongs in this $20K maiden claimer. I don’t love eating chalk in races like this, but it feels hard to build a logical case for anyone other than Romantic Dancer (#10) She faded late to be second in a race at Churchill last out with identical conditions. She made a solid step forward in her second career start for Eddie Kenneally after a dull debut with $50K maiden claimers at Ellis. Luis Saez is trying to catch Tyler Gaffalione for the rider title and this might be a good spot to pick up a race. Computadora (#2) and Gaffilione’s mount, Foxy Zorra (#3) would be the two alternatives for me in this spot. I slightly prefer Computadora because even though she’s running at a lesser circuit, she’s been closer to breaking her maiden more than anyone else in this field. She wasn’t great in her one start at this level on this circuit, but I’m willing to forgive that effort, especially if her odds go over her 10-1 morning line figure. Foxy Zorra feels like a horse that will take some money on the drop in class. However, despite some positive looking running lines, I have some concerns. Moquett is 0-28 with runners in their second start off a six month plus layoff since the beginning of 2023. This filly showed some life on debut, but regressed in her second start. While she did head to the bench after that race, the drop in class from $50K maiden claimers to $20K maiden claimers, while only losing her last start by five lengths, is a little concerning as well. She’s a deeper backup for me, but I’d probably need closer to 8-1 (which feels like a pipe dream with this field) for me to consider playing her to win.

Race 3:

We’ll turn the page to a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt here. Love Me Sweet (#2) was cross-entered in a race on the turf yesterday where she was stuck on the AE list. Assuming she doesn’t draw into that race, she’s entered in this spot where she’s listed at 7-2 on the morning line for Graham Motion. While I have tremendous respect for this barn, it feels like turf was the preferred surface for her, which means this race would be more about getting the race day experience before possibly trying a grass race at Laurel or Aqueduct next month, before turf season ends in the Mid-Atlantic region. I’ll play against her in this spot. Save Time (#6) is the morning line favorite in this spot. She makes a lot of sense, while boasting a five race stretch on the dirt where her Beyer Figures improved each time. She’s faced quality opponents, but she’s come up short in each of those five races. In two of those races, she was a sub-even money favorite and she was clearly second best in both starts. She rolled the dice on the turf last out where she finished 7th in a 12 horse field at the Spa. She’s been away since that race in August and she returns to the main track here for Chad Brown and Juddmonte. She’s going to be on my multi-race plays, but as an odds-on favorite, I don’t think she’s the best bet. Vino Frizzante (#5) has the pace edge in this race, where she could be on an uncontested lead as they move on to the first turn. She tried the dirt for the first time after a pair of turf races to start her career. She ran well, finishing third beaten three lengths. She paired her turf Beyer for that race and she’s making her third start off the layoff this afternoon for Jeff Hiles. I like the way she’s trending going into this race and I’ll pick her on top. Viable (#4) finished ahead of Vino Frizzante that day and her best chance for this race is if the McPeek second time starter, Dia Estellar (#3) is sent for the lead along with Love Me Sweet. Under that scenario, Vino Frizzante could be caught wide and runs the risk of having to work too hard in the early stages. A stronger pace likely benefits her and the favorite. Her last was by far her best effort, showing no signs of rust after taking a ride on the equine ambulance at Ellis in her prior start. She showed growth from her dirt debut and could be stronger in her second start after that minor incident. 

Race 4:

I’m not sold on the morning line favorite, Yes to Champagne (#9) in this $40K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. She is the class of the field and she’s coming out of two strong races. However, she didn’t run particularly well in either of those starts. She wants to be forward in this race, but she’s going to have competition for the early lead from Extremely Gruntled (#2) and Krackle (#4). If anyone else decides to send early, she could be losing a decent amount of ground into the first turn and I’m not convinced that she’s that much better than this group to handle a less than ideal trip. I’ll try Candy Doll (#1) on the rail as the top pick. She makes her first start for Mike Maker, who takes over for Mike Trombetta. Her pedigree suggests that two turns on the dirt is where she is going to be best. Her lone score came in a one turn mile race in an off the turf race two back at Colonial. This is her first foray into the claiming ranks, which tells me that Maker is spotting her where he thinks she belongs. Enlisting Tyler Gaffalione to ride is never a bad idea. I’m definitely interested to see which version of Honor Cat (#3) shows up in this race. After three unassuming races to start her career, she ran a monster race in her first start at two turns on the dirt at Oaklawn this past winter. She dueled with a filly named In Good Taste, who was a well-meant Brad Cox second time starter, finishing a close second. She came back to break her maiden easily before faltering in the Honeybee Stakes. She ran okay in three starts at Lone Star, but was underwhelming as a beaten favorite each time. Greg Compton took over her training and ran her once at Delaware where she finished off the board in an allowance sprint. Blinkers go on for the first time today, making her a candidate to also vie for the early lead. She doesn’t have to get back to her best form to beat this bunch, but she has to be better than her last few starts. Sensible Choice (#6) feels a bit overvalued at 7-2 on the morning line. She is more consistent than many in here, running some solid races in Indiana. She did break her maiden on this course, which is encouraging. I would have liked to have seen her run a little better against some of those smaller fields at Horseshoe Indianapolis in order to take that short of a price on her. I will use her as a backup and would consider playing her at longer odds, maybe closer to 6-1. 

Race 5:

The first turf race of the day is a maiden special weight contest going 1 1/16 miles. This is the race that ends the Early Pick-5 and begins that Late Pick-5. This is another spot where I think the favorite is vulnerable. Rocky Joy (#9) is another runner that wants to be forward, but he has a wide draw and should have some competition for early positioning in this race. He has run strong speed figures, but he keeps coming up short, as a well-backed favorite each time. I think he’s going to be in the mix, and I’ll use him in the bottom of the exotics, but I’m going to try to beat him. I’m thinking that we’re going to see a more professional effort from Jungle Law (#5) in this race. He finished third, about a length behind Rocky Joy in a fast race on the turf at Ellis. The winner had a rail trip and was able to withstand a duel from two runners to his outside. Jungle Law was moving well late, but he was green, and ran himself into trouble, checking off heels in the final stages. He came back to run 6th in a decent seven furlong maiden race ont he dirt earlier in the meet. He’s back on the turf for William Walden, who has three winners already at this meet. His dam was a multiple graded stakes winner on the dirt, but she foaled a runner that did win on the grass when routing for the second time. The ride from Tyler Gaffalione aboard Paris Surprise (#6) in his last start at Kentucky Downs was not his finest hour, so it’s not completely shocking to see Irad Ortiz named on this City of Light colt. He had some horse, but he was bottled up behind runners, allowing Oscar Season to come over the top and beat him. He has some early speed, but would be content to track in behind runners. Nolan Ramsey has won with 24% of the horses he’s saddled this year, with many of those races coming on the turf. I think he’s going to move forward in this spot. Golden Symphony (#11) was third in the same race that Paris Surprise is coming out of. He was also blocked as horses began to stack up in that race. Corey Lanerie made a nice move to dive toward the inside, where he battled his way through a tight hole to be third in his first turf race. He’s trying two turns for the first time today, and he’s drawn a tough post. However, the odds disparity between Paris Surprise and himself (4-1 compared to 15-1) feels too wide. If he’s at or around that number at post time, it feels like solid value. 

Race 6: 

15 two year old fillies filled the entry box for this maiden special weight sprint, going 6 ½ furlongs on the main course. A maximum of 12 starters will go in this race. While I don’t love the rail, Sycamore Shoals (#1) comes from a family of runners. All seven of the dam’s foals to make it to the track are winners and six of those seven have made it to a stakes race. Two were debut winners, including the lone horse that hasn’t been to a stakes race (still racing with only three career starts). Brendan Walsh is certainly capable of getting a horse ready to run on debut. Platinum Midnight (#2) makes her second career start after a disastrous start in her debut. She absolutely missed the break on a dreary day with a sloppy track. She was well behind the pace, but while it doesn’t look like it on paper, she closed a good amount of ground to get into 5th that day. The added distance and the fast track should work to her benefit. John Velasquez taking over is an upgrade at rider as well. Gifted Candy (#3) is another nice looking runner from Cherie DeVaux. C R K Stable paid $450K last year for this daughter of Candy Ride, who gets 9% winners from debut runners in dirt sprints. He’s the first foal to race from the dam that won on debut at six furlongs. 

Race 7: 

The final Pick-3 of the afternoon begins with an optional $125K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds, going 1 ⅛ miles on the main track. All eyes are going to be on Star of Wonder (#3), stretching out for the first time for Brad Cox. He was a strong winner on debut in June in the slop at Churchill. He came back in a seven furlong N1X allowance race there in September where he closed well to beat a nice field as a lukewarm favorite, The Beyer Speed Figure came back strong, posting a field best 95. No one else in this group has a figure in the 90’s. He’s trying something new and he’ll be a short price doing so. I think he’s a fine horse, so he’s going to be on the A line for me, however, I’m going to make Snead (#6) the top pick. He ended his two year old campaign with a game second place finish in the Gun Runner Stakes behind Track Phantom. While it didn’t look like a great race on paper, the form from that race certainly held up. Track Phantom won the Lecomte and was second in the Risen Star behind Sierra Leone. Two of the runners that finished behind Snead went on to win stakes races and two others have gone on to be stakes placed. He was away slow in his return when going a one turn mile against a good field of older runners at Churchill. He comes back to two turns, which is his game. I think he’s going to be more effective in this spot. I liked Walsh and Gaffalione in the 6th, and I’ll play that one with Snead together in the double. 

Race 8:

Fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in a conditioned allowance race which serves as the feature today. I think this might a spot where Wesley Ward could be undervalued, and I liked both of his runners here. John Velasquez has ridden both Top Gun Girl (#2) and Shootoutthelights (#8). He landed on Shootoutthelights, who is speedier from the gate than Top Gun Girl. However, I don’t think Walter Rodriguez is going to duel with his stablemate, so Top Gun Girl might find herself in the garden spot, just off the leaders in this race. She’s starting to come into her own as a five year old mare, which is a little unusual for Ward’s horses. She’s been good on the turf, winning two of six times and finishing third another three times. Shootouthelights has been affected by bad weather in her last two starts, but she ran a strong second in a race like this in the spring. She’s been away since July and returns at the end of this meet for Ward. I like the move back to the grass and seeing Velasquez pick her is encouraging. Despite her 17 for 31 record, I’m out on Oeuvre (#3) the morning line favorite. She’s better on dirt and while she’s capable on the turf, I don’t trust her at this level on that surface. Instead, I’ll back up with Bling (#7), who is the second choice on the morning line. I do see the potential for a strong pace, and since the two A line plays want to be forward, I want to at least backup with the horse that I think could be finishing the strongest. She was a winner here last fall, but her 2024 campaign hasn’t been as successful as they hoped. She just missed at Ellis two back though and she should have a better setup in this spot. 

Race 9:

Beaten $30K claimers going seven furlongs will end the afternoon. All 11 runners in this race qualified under the N3L condition. I’ve been cold on David Jacobsen’s horses at this meet, but they have won 4 of 10 through 10/20. He sends out Magia Nera (#6) who has been in the best form since he was claimed for $14K back in August at the Spa. He lost his last two starts at Belmont at the Big A by less than a length, and now he ships here for the first time. With the exception of a bad race four starts back at Saratoga, he’s more consistent than his rivals. For a horse that doesn’t win a ton, he sure gets close. I think he will move on today. Sutherland (#7) first off the Thomas Molloy claim is the backup for me in this race. He’s been knocking on the door in his last three starts while running for lower profile connections. Molloy has a small stable, but he has won with 15% of his starters in 2024. He’s 2 for 7 first off the claim since 2023. I think if the top pick weren’t in this race, he’d be very tough. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 10-20-24: 

34/125 (27.2%), $312.10 – $2.50 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.