Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Wednesday, 10/7/26 – By Eric Solomon

The first full week of racing at Keeneland begins with an eight race, Wednesday afternoon program.  Only one of the eight races will be run over the turf course this afternoon as I’m sure there will be extra caution exercised throughout the meet with the Breeders’ Cup coming up at the end of the month. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the first Wednesday of the meet with a $12,500 starter allowance race going one mile over the dirt course. The top three finishers from a nine furlong race at this condition at Churchill last month are back to square off against five fresh faces. Fountain Run (#3) and Military Road (#1) battled hard in that race with Fountain Run just getting his head down first. Both of these horses make sense in this race, but I do wonder if the one mile distance is going to be a little bit short for both of these guys. Global Sensation (#2) might be better suited for this distance, so I’ll make him the top pick here. He was claimed by Carlos Santamaria two starts back for $20K at Ellis. He came back in an open $20K claimer at Churchill when he stretched out to the one turn mile after running in a series of sprint races prior to that. He stalked the pace and then loomed boldly while four wide on the turn. He battled for the lead and held on for the win. He moves to a protected spot and an awkward distance on this course. While I don’t think he’ll be on the lead, I do think drawing inside will be to his advantage. He ran some strong races at this distance at Evangeline, which features a two turn mile on the dirt course there. While that was awhile ago and that’s not an apples to apples comparison, I do think it tells me that this is a horse that could take another step forward for a barn that has been winning a lot of races this year. I see the presence of Fast Solution (#5) possibly being difficult for the favorite, so I do prefer Military Road to Fountain Run. Both Fountain Run and Fast Solution are more effective when they’re on the lead and the short run into the first turn likely forces the hand of William Antongeorgi to send Fast Solution pretty hard from the gate. I don’t think Danny Sheehy is going to want to concede that early position, I suspect both are going to go. Military Road might get the garden trip behind the dueling leaders. While the shorter stretch could hurt closers, horses coming from off the pace had every chance to win races here over the weekend. Assuming that there are no defections, I’ll keep Fountain Run as a deeper saver. Should Fast Solution scratch, I’d probably upgrade him to the A line. I won’t use Fast Solution if this field stays intact, but I’d consider him as a backup if Fountain Run does not participate. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go seven furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming race. This is the bottom level for maidens at Keeneland. The horses with lots of experience aren’t really doing much to excite me here. Strawberry Float (#8) is a second time starter in this race and she might be better than her 30-1 morning line odds suggest. She drew the rail in a turf sprint at Churchill in a full gate of 12. She was away slowly in that dash and not keeping pace for the first quarter mile. Her stride did improve and while she was still beaten by double digit lengths, she might have finished better than she did if she wasn’t forced to alter course at the top of the stretch. The dam broke her maiden at one mile on the dirt, but she was probably better on the turf. However, her first four foals to race all have wins in dirt sprints and are winless on the grass. I’m interested in this filly as a bomb in this race. The two starts at one turn for Snow Bunny (#3) were solid and she looks like a horse that could appreciate the seven furlong trip of this race. While she might need a race off the bench before we see her best, 85-90% might be good enough to beat this group. On deeper tickets, I’ll use My My My Delilah (#1), who started twice over the winter at Turf in restricted maiden special weight races. She drew the rail in her debut where she faced a full field when going six furlongs. That was a sharper effort than her next start at two turns. She has been sidelined since that race so something could have easily gone amiss. I don’t love her drawing the rail again here, but the seven furlong trip might neutralize that a bit. I wouldn’t be surprised if she ran a better race at this level on the dirt. 

Race 3:

This is the first of three nice allowance races on this eight race card. Fillies and mares, three and up will sprint six furlongs in an optional $100K claiming/N3X allowance race. While Michael Tomlinson doesn’t have great numbers with horses first off the layoff, Velvet Devil (#7) has been working like a horse that is ready to compete on the track again. She cleared the second level allowance on this course in a race that held together fairly well last fall, despite being originally scheduled to be run over the turf course. She followed up that effort with a strong second place finish in a stakes at Mahoning Valley on their lucrative Steel Valley Sprint card in November. She struggled badly when trying the mile in stakes company at Turfway two back. Tomlinson shipped her to Oaklawn after that where she ran into a brutally tough field in the American Beauty. Majestic Oops is a really nice mare and she was an easy winner that day. She used that race to prep for her 9-1 upset in the Grade 2 Azeri in her next start. She’ll likely have her sights set on the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Asternia, who was the runner up, came back to score in a ratings handicap and was recently third in a stakes race at Churchill. Velvet Devil ran 5th that day and probably wasn’t the best version of herself as we haven’t seen her on the track since that mid-February effort. She’s facing a significantly softer group while coming back in allowance company and she’ll be able to run with race day Lasix like she did for her last two wins. I like her a lot in this race. Bob Baffert has had a small string of horses in Kentucky this year and Silent Law (#4) is one of them. She wasn’t great in either start at Churchill, but she did run a decent race to be second in the Saylorville Stakes at Prairie Meadows back in July. Blinkers will go back on after a troubled trip last time out which could have been an explanation for why she was so dull. She’s more of a backup for me in this spot though. 

Race 4:

Nine two year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this maiden special weight contest. While there are some pedigrees in this race, it doesn’t get much more blue-blooded than the pedigree on Jump Seat (#6). She is sired by Flightline, who put on a show in the Breeders’ Cup Classic here at Keeneland in 2022. The dam foaled Essential Quality, who won the Belmont and the Travers in 2021. He also won both the Toyota Blue Grass and the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity on this course. This filly had some trouble in her debut, and it took her a little time to switch leads, but she was the best horse in that race, despite coming up just a nose short. The Beyer wasn’t great, but I think she was meant to be a two turn horse. I do think Spectacular Sam (#1) will be a formidable opponent. She was cross-entered in a stakes race at Delaware on Saturday but she defected from that race, presumably in favor of this one. Her last two efforts were sharp, including a second lace finish to Emphatic in the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth. That race got a big time boost when that filly came back to score in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades here on Friday. The experience at two turns is certainly valuable, and if the public goes to town on Jump Seat, the price should float up on the filly. If she’s sitting there at closer 7-2 while Jump Seat is 4-5, I’d be more inclined to play her. However, if they both are being bet, I’ll stick with the potential of Jump Seat. 

Race 5:

The Early Pick-4 will end here and the Late Pick-4 begins. Two year old fillies will go six furlongs in this starter allowance race that is limited to horses that broke their maiden in a maiden claiming or maiden auction race and is eligible for the first level allowance. Kenny McPeek has a pair in here and with Brian Hernandez landing on Valkyrie (#8) that tells me that this is the preferred runner. She was a winner at first asking in a 4 ½ furlong dash at Churchill in one of the first maiden auction races of the two year old season. She tried stakes company in her next two starts, but that was always going to be a reach for her. She came back in a race like this at Churchill last month and she ran a distant second behind a runaway winner. Early speed did not fare that well on this course, so I do like that she can sit closer to the middle of the pace before making her run at the leaders. For the Win (#2) is looking to rebound after not showing up at all in the Pocohontas last time out. That race was going a one turn mile and she was a big longshot that day so where she finished wasn’t shocking. The hope is that she’s mentally tough enough to rebound while getting some class relief here. She was a distant second two back at Ellis behind the Pocohontas winner Manuka Honey. Weaver will put blinkers on her for the first time to help her stay focused. The other McPeek runner is Anna Bo Banna (#1), who was a debut winner at Churchill in her only start. She looked comfortable making a nice rally in between rivals, which is always a nice thing to see a two year old do. She’ll face winners for the first time in this race, so it remains to be seen how deep the field was that she beat. 

Race 6:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track in this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race. I’m not exactly sure what to make of Strong Destiny (#5) in this race, but if she does go into the starting gate at her 10-1 morning line number, I’d be okay playing her. She ran okay in some dirt and turf races when running for Brad Cox last year. She was sold at the Keeneland November Sale where she joined Phil Sims. She came back and ran two lights out races on the Tapeta in the winter, breaking her maiden and then clearing the first level allowance condition in romps. She came here to try this second level allowance level, but she dumped the rider coming out of the gate in a nine furlong race on the turf back in April. She came back in an 11 furlong turf race where she was wide around each turn and didn’t really fire her best shot. She’s been sidelined since then and has been working well over this course since then. Perhaps, she’s just biding time and getting fit for the Turfway meet, but I do think this filly has some ability, and she’s not facing the strongest field for this condition. Ballerina d’Oro (#7) was the winner of the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct last spring and that effort was good enough to land her a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Oaks. She went off at 11-1 and was a wiseguy horse for many that day. However, she struggled to get her footing over the sealed wet track and she finished near the back of the pack. She went away for 16 months before resurfacing at Saratoga this summer. She was flat in her return when going one mile on the dirt out of the Wilson Chute. She showed a lot of promise early in her career and Chad Brown had a pair of winners to start off the meet on Friday. I think we’ll see a better version of her in this spot today. Clarita (#2) is worth thinking about in this spot as well. She tried the turf for the first time in her last start at Churchill and she was not impressed. She was trending up in her previous tries on dirt though. She was an impressive winner at this distance when clearing the N1X condition at Churchill in May and she ran a credible race in stakes company on the Indiana Derby Day undercard. While she ran well here twice, she might just prefer Churchill and could be more useful at this level in her next start. 

Race 7: 

The lone turf contest of the afternoon is a N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs. I definitely to play some prices in here since I think the Wesley Ward filly, Should’ve (#3) is vulnerable. She’s coming into this race off her second career victory, scoring in a first level allowance race at Kentucky Downs. That was also the sight of her maiden breaking victory last year. She ran a nice race at six furlongs in the Matron that year, but her only two starts at this distance were not great. She’s moving up in class and she simply might not be as effective on a traditional American oval. Conversely, Lucy McGee (#7) struggled mightily in a seven furlong race at this level over at Kentucky Downs in her last start. However, Vicky Oliver had her on quite a run in her last three starts at this distance. She broke her maiden on this course in the spring and then she came right back to clear the first level allowance condition at Ellis. That effort was good enough for Oliver to consider sending her to Virginia to run in the Andy Guest Stakes, where she put forth a big effort despite going off at 21-1 in the wagering. She also threw in a clunker at Kentucky Downs last season, so between the longer distances and the unique layout of the course, she just doesn’t seem to put her best foot forward there. Luis Saez rode her in her maiden victory here in the spring and he was aboard last month when she misfired. He agreed to be back in the saddle here, telling me that last race is probably worthy of just drawing a line through. Lady Iva (#12) is a longshot in this race that is worth thinking about. She was excellent when debuting at this distance last summer at Ellis, just missing in a fast race for that condition. She wasn’t as effective at Churchill when going two turns, but she was better at the mile on this course last fall. She was sharper at two turns when getting some class relief at the Fair Grounds over the winter, winning her first two career tries over that course. I like that Calhoun is bringing her back in a sprint, and while it could be designed to set her up for her next start, I think she is worth using here. I don’t think we’re going to get the 20-1 morning line number, but at 10-1 or better, I’d definitely be interested. This is an interesting time for George Weaver to have Flat Out Time (#11) return to the grass. She ran well in a Grade 3 Stakes at Aqueduct last fall when trying the turf for the first time. She was second, beaten only a length in that race. Her last four races have come on the dirt though, and she’s been unable to find the Winner’s Circle in any of them. Her only two career wins came on the dirt at Fonner and Delaware, so there’s reason to believe that we’ve seen her ceiling on the dirt. Irad Ortiz will take the mount on this Not This Time filly for the first time since her second career try in the spring of 2025. I see her as more of a backup in this race, but she certainly wouldn’t be a surprise. 

Race 8:

The Wednesday nightcap is a $50K maiden claiming race for two year olds going six furlongs on the dirt. The experienced runners aren’t doing much for me in this spot, so I’ll a first timer here and make Enoughisenough (#6) the top pick. He’s one of two first time starters that Brendan Walsh is unveiling in this race. I do like seeing Irad Ortiz take the mount of this son of Halladay, as he also rode Wesley Ward’s runner, Ez Pal (#11) in his debut in the summer. He’s the first foal to race from a Run Away and Hide mare who was third in her debut. There is some precocity in that sire line which could possibly make up for the fact that Halladay is only 1-23 with his debuting runners in dirt sprints. That was a horse that did his best work on the grass, so that could certainly be on the table for him down the road. However, the works are solid enough and he’s not going to have to be a world beater to score in this race. Lookism (#9) makes his 4th career start today. He tried the turf in a maiden special weight race at Kentucky Downs in his last start and it’s fair to say that it did not go well. His second start at Ellis was not bad though, especially after a troubled trip debut at Ellis prior to that. A return to form on the dirt would give him a fighting chance in this race. On deeper tickets, I’ll still toss in the Ward gelding, Ez Pal. The works have been solid since an uninspiring debut. He was gelded since his first try, which may help him be more focused on his game this afternoon. Yedsit Hazlewood has had a great year in the Mid-Atlantic region winning 23% of his races this year.Riding for Ward at times at Keeneland is never a bad way to try to beark into the Kentucky circuit. 

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.