We’ve hit the halfway point of this fantastic spring meet at Keeneland. There’s eight races to start the last Full week of racing. There are three turf races, so the $3 All-Turf Pick-3 wager is on the table this afternoon. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 5 | 5,3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 2,5 | 9 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 4 | 9 | 9,7,1 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
$3 All-Turf PK3 (R4, R6, R8) |
||
| 5 | 4 | 4,8,3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 6 | 3 | 3,4 | 5 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | DBL | |
| 8 | 12 | 12,8,3 |
Race 1:
Six fillies will kick off the 8th day of this meet in a $100oK maiden claiming race going six furlongs. Five of the six fillies are three year olds with In for a Spin (#6) being the lone four year old. I’m not really sold on the two favorites,Shot at Perfection (#1) and Getting Closer (#2). They are definitely more seasoned, but at this point, we pretty much know what to expect from them. It might be enough to win this race among this compact field, but I’d rather take a few runners with more upside. I’ll try Nightmare Fuel (#5) on top for Peter Eurton in this spot. She debuted last year in June at Churchill and was never a factor that day. She was given time off and has been progressively working better in the mornings. The barn does well with horses off layoffs and dropping in for a tag for the first time, and their runners have been live all meet long. Poppy Woppy (#3) is the other second time starter in this spot. She debuted in an auction maiden special weight at Churchill in the fall. She caught a sloppy course that day and was never really a factor. She’s the first foal to race from a well bred daughter of Blame, so there is reason to believe that she could also be better than her initial try.
Race 2:
Wesley Ward is 3-3 in the two year old races thus far at this meet, but I do think the competition is getting stiffer. He’ll send out Joker’s Chic (#5), who will be on my tickets, but I’m going to side with a George Weaver runner, Rush Hour (#2) on top in this race. Nyquist continues to be an excellent debut sire for his two year olds, winning 21% of the time in dirt sprint races. The dam won her only start on debut and she’ll be her first foal to make it to the track. Weaver has a strong record with two year old firsters. He’s brought four babies to the spring meet here over the last four years, two running on the turf and the other two running on the dirt. One of those four runners was a winner and the other three hit the board. I think she has a decent chance to pull off a mild upset. Ward has always been strong with his debuting babies, but after winning with the first three of his two year olds at this meet, the tax on his runners is only going to go up. Joker’s Chic is sired by Practical Joke, who is another strong sire with two year old babies. The dam has had six horses make it to the track and one of them was a debut winner at this 4 ½ furlong distance. On deeper tickets, I’ll back up with Pot’s Right (#9). Phil Antonacci was an assistant under Ward before going out on his own a few years ago. He’s had a limited sample of debuting two year olds in that time, but he did score with one of them. This will be the first horse that he’s brought to one of these races. Bolt d’Oro does well with his firsters and her recent drill looked sharp. She’ll be the first baby that he’s sent out against his former boss on one of these baby races here at Keeneland.
Race 3:
Older horses will go 6 ½ furlongs in this $50K claiming race that starts the Pick-6. This is another race where I’m struggling to trust the two shortest prices on the morning line. Inexorable (#2) runs for David Jacobson, whose runners have been ice cold in 2026. His lone win in the last two years came in a total pace meltdown race at Oaklawn where he blew the break (which worked in his favor). I don’t think he’s going to get that sweet setup in this spot. Kavod (#6) went off form badly for the second half of 2025. He dropped into a beaten $30K claiming race at the Fair Grounds which felt like a spot to get right. He’s moving back up the class ladder, and cutting back to a sprint, so it’s hard to confidently declare that he is back, especially when getting him at a short price. I think this is a great spot Honky Tonk Highway (#5), who feels like a worthy single in this spot. He’s been hanging around in optional claiming/N2X allowance races at the Fair Grounds, but this feels like the right spot to drop back into open claiming company. He has tactical speed in a race that has some cheap speed that could be vulnerable in the final furlong. Eye Witness (#1) will be the backup for me in this spot. He’s saved some of his best efforts for this course, winning here at two turns back in the fall. He’s coming back to a traditional dirt course for his third start off the layoff. Caio Caramori seems to have him in decent form right now.
Race 4:
We will have an All-Turf Pick-3 wager this afternoon, which isn’t always the case on Wednesdays at Keeneland. This maiden special weight for three year olds and up going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course oversubscribed. The racing office split it into two divisions, with the second going off as the 6th race this afternoon. Wesley Ward has a total of four horses in these two races, and while he’s usually a major player in these turf sprint races at Keeneland, I’m not a big believer in his quartet. I’m going to side with McCann (#9), who is a first time starter for George Weaver. He’s a half brother to the six-time stakes winning sprinter, Valentine Candy. That colt was a winner on debut on the dirt. He tried the turf one time, which came in Grade 2 company on this course, which was not his finest hour. However, Weaver does very well with turf sprinters, especially on debut, While his numbers with firsters are strong, they are better with younger horses as opposed to three year olds and up. Regardless, I like the outside draw, and after a big weekend, Flavien Prat feels like the right rider for him right now. Rose Ruler (#7) is a Turfway Park shipper for John Ennis. He was swallowed late in his last start, but his first two efforts were very strong. While the barn isn’t known for producing turf sprinters, this one appears to have some ability and could easily be overshadowed by bettors in this spot. I’ll also use Caragogo (#1) on my tickets. He’s cutting back in distance after debuting in a two turn, 7 ½ furlong race at Gulfstream in his last start. After winning with only three starters from 50 runners in 2026 prior to this meet getting under way, George Arnold’s runners are faring quite well at this meet. He’s 5-14 going into the week. The dam of this runner has never produced a horse that won a sprint, however, his sire, Caravaggio, gets 19% winners from his turf sprinters.
Race 5:
Fillies and mares will go 6 ½ furlongs in this beaten $20K claiming race where all eight runners qualified under the N3L condition. The form from these runners is all over the map so I’m thinking coverage is going to be important in this spot. I’d consider Couldyoubeloved (#4) on top, despite never competing on the dirt before. The dam’s other foal to race was a two time winner on the main track. He’s moving up in class after clearing the N2L condition in his last start. It’s not easy to jump through conditions, but I do think he could move forward when switching surfaces today. She’s No Angel (#8) switches back to a traditional dirt course after some useful races over the winter at Turfway. She went off form this past fall after a claim, but she was claimed against at the beginning of the year and she seems to be trending in the right direction. Wild Acclaim (#3) is probably taking the biggest class drop in the field at this moment. She cleared the N2L condition with an impressive score at Turfway when going a mile back in December. She faced tougher opposition in her last two, but she drops back in for a tag today, while also cutting back to a sprint.
Race 6:
The second division of this maiden special weight turf sprint drew a field of 10. I think this race is ripe for a longshot and I think Feline Curious (#3) is worth considering in this race today. He debuted at Turfway in a 6 ½ furlong maiden special weight race. He was stuck behind some dead cover for the better part of his debut. Adam Beschizza was looking for a seam and found one, however he was bumped hard at the top of the stretch, which eliminated his chance of hitting that hole and definitely took some starch out of him in the final furlong or so. He wasn’t going to win that race, but I do think he would have had a better showing if he was able to get into that open lane. His dam was a winner at this distance on the turf in her second career start and she was stakes placed on this course at this distance. While we think of Kitten’s Joy as a horse that produces distance runners on the turf, but horses he’s sired have won 11% of the time in turf sprints over the last five years. Kelsey Danner has great numbers with horses getting on the turf for the first time and that debut felt like a race to build his fitness with a race like this in mind. Taterpie (#4) comes back to a sprint for Gregory Foley after two decent efforts at two turns at the Fair Grounds. He had some run in his last turf sprint, but he had nowhere to go for the majority of the race. He galloped out strongly, in front of the rest of the field. Perhaps that gave his connections confidence to try him at two turns in his last two tries. Those efforts were okay, but I’m interested to see him cutting back to a sprint today. Wesley Ward has two runners and neither of them have been really impressive. Gypsy Art (#5) ran twice in stakes company to start his career . Neither effort was bad, but they weren’t great either. He was 4 ½ lengths behind Cy Fair in the Algonquin at Woodbine. However, I expected more from him as the favorite in an average maiden special weight race at Aqueduct in November. He’s been gelded since his last start and he’ll lose the blinkers for this race. He has a shot, but I fear he’ll be overbet.
Race 7:
Six older runners will go 1 1/16 miles over the main course. The favorites in this race look tough to beat, but I think Fact (#5) is the one I want to use more prominently. He was very game when finishing second by a neck to Tip Top Thomas in the Smarty Jones Stakes in August at Parx. He was making his first start at two turns that day, but that was his last start of the year. He came back in a one turn mile race at Gulfstream where he was a game second place. I think this is a great spot to stretch back out to two turns. William Walden has brought several live runners to this meet, winning twice and having a total of seven of 11 runners finish in the money. Rothko (#2) is the first foal to race from the champion mare, Covfefe. She was at her best in one turn races and her first foal was a stakes winner and Grade 2 placed in sprint races. He broke his maiden in a two turn race at the Fair Grounds two starts ago. He was very good when finishing second to Vamos Carlitos in his last start there. He was very keen on the front end that day and that may have cost him the race. Cox takes the blinkers off, but I’m not sure that’s going to help.
Race 8:
The featured N3X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course will be the nightcap today. A full field of 12 has been assembled for this contest today. That was a big effort from Sweet Treasure (#12) to finish third at long odds in the Al Stall Memorial Stakes at the Fair Grounds in her last start. Expensive Queen was the winner of that race and she came back to win in a dead heat in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes here last week. She’s an improving four year old filly that continues to improve. She won three of her first four career starts before moving on to stakes company. She ran in three nice stakes races at the Fair Grounds this winter. She drops back into an allowance race, which feels like an appropriate spot to gear her up for the summer racing options on the turf. She’s Lookin Lucky (#8) crossed the finish line at this level back in June, but her number was taken down by the stewards at Churchill. She’s gone on to lose her eight starts since that effort, but there have been plenty of sharp efforts in that span, coming against top notch horses. Toss her last two starts one coming on the synthetic and the other coming on the dirt, both in stakes company. She was a length behind the winner at this level on this course three starts back. Child of the Moon (#3) will likely be heavily backed at the windows as she drops back into allowance company. She took the short end of a four horse photo in the Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa in her last start. She’s making her third start off a lengthy layoff here. If she’s right, she’s going to be tough, but she’s likely going to be a short price.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
