Closing week at Keeneland begins with this eight race Wednesday afternoon card. Unlike the last two Wednesday programs, the $3 All-Turf Pick-3 wager is being offered today, starting with the 4th race. The jockey and trainer standings are extremely close. Three riders, Irad Ortiz, Jose Ortiz, and Luis Saez are tied for first with 15 riding wins at the meet thus far. Flavien Prat is right behind them with 14 victories. On the trainer side, Wesley Ward and Brad Cox are tied with nine wins apiece, with Brendan Walsh breathing down their necks with eight wins. Ward and Walsh both have three chances to win today and Cox has runners entered in two races. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 1,6 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 1,3 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 8 | 4,7,8 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 4 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 9 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
All-Turf Pick 3 (R4, R6, R8) |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 6 | 5 | 5,6 | 4 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 7 | 6 | 6 | 4,5 | DBL | |
| 8 | 9 | 1,5,9 |
Race 1:
A half dozen fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track in a $40K N2L claiming race to start off the week. I’m siding with Pula (#2) in this race. She’s making her third start off the layoff this afternoon, after running sold races in two turn turf races at the Fair Grounds against beaten $30K claimers. She was trending in the right direction as a two year old before being tossed to the wolves in stakes company at Oaklawn. She was away for 8 ½ months after that race before resurfacing at Horseshoe Indianapolis in allowance company. She looked like a horse that needed that start. She improved while dropping for a tag and catching a sloppy course at Churchill. Bauer took her back to the sidelines before trying the grass in New Orleans Despite running poorly in both career races at one mile on the dirt, she had excuses in both of those races and was generally overmatched in both of those starts. She’s bred to handle this distance and I see Irad Ortiz taking the mount as a plus. Colonial Rose (#1) had a wide trip in her last starts when trying N1X company at Turfway. Prior to that, she has a nice three-race stretching going. She broke her maiden against a weak $20K maiden claiming field here in the fall, winning by over nine lengths. She had in the money finishes in her next two starts at Churchill and Turfway before her last effort. This feels like the right level of competition for her today. Helen’s Little Sis (#6) tries two turns on the dirt for the first time today in her 7th career start. Her two efforts on fast dirt tracks were quite sharp. Both of those races came at one turn though. She is sired by Arrogate, so there’s reason to believe that she’s going to be able to win some races while routing. She is getting class relief for her first start over this course.
Race 2:
The last 4 ½ furlong maiden special weight over the Headley Course for the year is for two year old fillies. 16 are entered, but there’s a maximum of 12 starters, meaning that some of these runners are going to have to wait for Churchill to run. We’re expected to see the first foals from freshman sires, Yaupon, Raging Bull, and Modernist, in this race. While the horses sired by Caravaggio haven’t been great when debuting in dirt sprints, they are winning plenty of races on the dirt. Todd Pletcher sends out of another runner from the dam, Nonna Bella with Nonna’s Love (#3) in this race. This fill is a half to Fierceness and Mentee, both of who were strong debut winners as two year olds. The dam and sire were also both two year old debut winners. I’m a little surprised to see Luis Saez in the irons as opposed to Irad Ortiz (who landed on Cat Island (#8) for Riley Mott). However, Pletcher is decent in these races and I think if this one is entered here, he can probably run a little bit. I’ve been picking against the Wesley Ward two year olds and I’ve been getting crushed while doing so. He sends out Gracie’s Delight (#1) with Joel Rosario in the saddle. This is another win-early pairing as her full sister debuted here and was an easy winner last spring. That filly had more of a foundation in terms of recorded workouts, but this one’s last week was faster than her sister’s works leading up to her first try. Ward continues to have his horses better prepared for these races than most. On deeper tickets, Percy’s Bar (#4) is an interesting player that is starting off at 5-1 on the morning line. I suspect she’ll be a higher price at post time, unless there is some buzz behind her. She has a few sharp drills over this course in the mornings. Her half-sister, Citizen Judy, is winless in seven career starts. However, she was second in the slop in a race here last spring. This filly has a better debut sire with Upstart, who has the best winning percentage in the field with debuting runners in dirt sprints (16%).
Race 3:
We’ll kick off the Pick-6 with a $50K maiden claiming race, going the testing nine furlong distance on the main track. There’s a few runners that were seen on opening day in the slop in a $30K maiden claiming race at this distance. Alpha Omega (#1) looms as the lone speed threat in this race, and while he has a nice race on the synthetic at Turfway when going 10 furlongs, his lone start on the dirt was really bad, He takes a deep drop in class, but while Eurton’s runners have been live, his recent works have been dull. When you couple that with the awful race on the dirt at Oaklawn, I’m going to need a much better number than 9-2 to consider playing him. I’m going to side with Strategic Force (#8) on top for the red hot Brendan Walsh barn. He’s making his third career start after a pair of off the board finishes at the Fair Grounds. He made up some ground on debut on the dirt when going 1 1/16 miles in a maiden special weight. He tried the turf for his second start and was not interested. He’s been working well for his local debut and Walsh gives the reins to Saez. I can see him running a better race in this spot today. I’m looking for horses that might have some tactical speed that can stay close and make a run at the front-runner. Missile Cruiser (#4) is an interesting longshot that I’m considering in this spot. Val Brinkerhoff brings him in from Southern California where he’s been competing on the turf. He had the outside post position in all three of those races, but his efforts weren’t terrible in any of them. His debut on the dirt wasn’t terrible when debuting in maiden special weight company and I can forgive his second start where he was eased. As a son of Street Sense, I think he’ll like the added distance and returning to the dirt. Spurgeon (#7) is the morning line favorite since he has probably been the most consistent runner in this field. He has faced horses that have beaten him and then went on to be competitive when facing winners. I also think Shogun (#2) has enough tactical speed to secure a decent position from post two. He had credible dirt form in the past, but his last few starts have been on the turf and the synthetic. I do think he fits at this level, but he’s been shaky lately, so he’s more of a backup for me.
Race 4:
The first turf race of the day begins the Late Pick-5 and the $3 All-Turf Pick Wager. Three year olds will go 1 3/16 miles in this N1X allowance race. There isn’t a ton of speed signed on for this race, and there’s a longer run into the first turn. This should give Florent Geroux every opportunity to get Hot Property (#12) to settle into a good spot, not far from the early lead. This Medaglia d’Oro colt was impressive when winning in gate to wire fashion in a maiden special weight race at the Fair Grounds. That effort was good enough for him to earn a spot in the starting gate in the Smarty Jones when he tangled with Coal Battle. He wasn’t able to race with race day Lasix that day, which could have contributed to his dull 5th place finish. He was sharp on the turf at the Fair Grounds when trying the lawn for the first time. That was a strong race as Flying Mohawk came back to finish second in the Jeff Ruby and States Rights, the runner-up, just missed to Mesero in a one mile allowance race at this level. I like his chances a lot in this race. Capitol Hill (#13) is an instant contender if he does draw into this race. He ran a big race to break his maiden in his turf debut at Tampa last month. Like the top pick, he has some tactical speed, which should serve him well in this race. Bill Mott has had some tough luck at this meet, and this one not getting into the body of this field, might continue that streak. However, this one feels like a horse that could have stakes potential in the near future. Bulldoze (#9) would be the preferred alternative, should the Mott colt be excluded. He paired his Beyers in his first two starts, scoring as the favorite in maiden special weight race last time at Gulfstream. He appreciated the nine furlong trip last out, so an extra 1/16 of a mile won’t be an issue. I do worry about the lack of pace in front of him though, as it may be asking a lot for him to close into. I do think he’s eligible to move forward in this race though.
Race 5:
Three year olds will go 6 ½ furlongs in this $50K claiming contest. The clear horse to beat in this race is Sharp Swinger (#3). He comes here from Oaklawn, riding a two race winning streak. Maker has him in good form and he returns to a $50K claiming race. I guess the question that’s fair to ask is; why is he back in for a tag? Maker claimed him for $50K and he’s earned $75K in two wins since that race. The total purse for this race is $72K, which roughly $43K of that would go to the winner. My guess is that he’s probably not good enough to win a top tier N1X allowance race, and there’s probably not a ton of other options in the condition book at Keeneland, Oaklawn, or Churchill. I think he’s the class of the field, so I’ll eat chalk here. Rulookinforrayray (#7) is the backup play for me here. His lone win on the dirt was a win, albeit with $20K maiden claimers. He has shown improvement in his last few races at Turfway, so if for some reason the extra half furlong is a little much for the favorite, I think he’d be the candidate to catch him late.
Race 6:
Older fillies and mares will travel 12 furlongs on the turf in this N1X allowance. The rail is set at 30 feet, so there’s a maximum of 10 starters for this race, which starts on the backstretch. I’m siding with Parish Lane (#5) in this race. She’s making her second start since moving into Eddie Kenneally’s barn. He’s been hot at this meet, winning with 5 of 18 starters. This horse is sired by Justify and foaled by a mare that has produced a Grade 1 and a Grade 3 winner on the turf. She tried this distance on the Tapeta at Turfway and looked very comfortable, losing a thrilling stretch battle by a nose. She’ll need to prove that she can put two solid efforts back to back, but staying at this distance and class level while getting the services of Luis Saez, feels like a world of positivity. Both Tarneema (#4) and Sugaree (#6) are coming out of the same pair of long distance allowance races at Gulfstream. Tarneema has been about three lengths better than her rival in both starts. However, that turf course is very firm, and Sugaree was based overseas for her first six starts. The course is likely to be labeled firm, but I think there will be more cut in the ground here compared to the course in Florida. With Prat taking the mount, and seeing as how Tarneema wasn’t great on this course in her lone try here, I think you could argue that the longer priced runner has a shot to make up that ground here. I’ll play her on the A line and keep the favorite on the B line as more of a backup.
Race 7:
The feature today is an optional claiming/N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. I don’t trust Chilled (#1) on a fast track, who was a winner in an off the turf race in the slop at this condition last time out. She was disqualified and placed second, thus keeping her eligible for this level at the end of the meet. Her fast track efforts aren’t as sharp as her off track ones. The one to beat is the speedster, Landed (#6). She’s a New York bred that has three wins in state bred stakes company. She cleared the N1X condition in open company here with a gate to wire win last spring. She came in the fall and faded to third in a nine furlong race at this condition. She was a handy winner in the Broadway Stakes with Frankie Pennington in the irons and he’s named to ride her in this spot. The X factor in this race is Pulp Fiction (#4), coming here from Argentina and making her first start since September. She is now trained by Graham Motion, who has nice numbers with first time imports. He’s 2-7 with first time import runners on dirt or synthetic, and 1-3 on traditional dirt. Irad Ortiz taking the mount feels like a plus. I’m expecting his brother, Jose, to have Little Jamie (#5) in striking position here. She struggled to clear the N1X condition before breaking through in the Wayward Lass Stakes at Tampa two back .She ran 4th, while being pace compromised in the Grade 3 Bayakoa at Oaklawn in her last start. Ortiz will be the 8th different rider in her last nine starts. Ignacio Correras will take over as the trainer of record today.
Race 8:
We’ll end the day with a maiden special weight for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf. All of the horses on the AE list are entered in the body of the field in a race at this condition tomorrow. I’ll try the first time starter for Jimmy Toner, Mildred Pierce (#9) on top. Toner won’t debut a horse until they’re ready, and this four year old Uncle Mo filly has been coming to life in the mornings. Uncle Mo has 16% winners with firsters routing on the turf, which comes as no surprise, as his runners seem to be able to do it all. The dam was the winner of the Grade 1 Flower Bowl in 2017. Her first two runners have been respectable. Indy’s Halo (#1) ran her first two races on the synthetic at Turfway and then went to the sidelines for 13 months. She came back and ran okay in her return at Gulfstream and was much sharper last out at Tampa. She paired her Beyers in those races, so I do see her as a candidate to move forward in this spot. Just So Pretty (#2) and Spinning Class (#5) are coming out of the same race at Gulfstream. Just So Pretty ran okay, but probably not good enough to be the 8-5 favorite here. Spinning Class at 10-1 on the morning line feels more desirable. She was behind a wall of horses for the better part of that last race. She likes to be closer to the front end, so if Johnny V. can get her out of the gate better this time, I think she’ll be better suited to run one of her better efforts.
Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 4-19-25:
34/115 (29.6%), $282.97 – $2.46 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
