Derby OddsWatch
The field shifted Friday. Class President is now officially out with bone bruising, opening a spot for Iron Honor if Chad Brown decides to press on with him. Renegade, meanwhile, is hardening into clear favoritism. When Irad Ortiz Jr. committed to the Arkansas Derby winner on Wednesday — passing up Blue Grass hero Further Ado and Florida Derby winner Commandment, both of whom he had also ridden — the market reacted exactly as you’d expect. Renegade is now the only horse in the field with consensus across every major pricing source — opened at 4-1 and has already tightened to 7/2 on Oddschecker since the Irad news broke Wednesday, with no daylight between the analyst line, the domestic books and the international market. That kind of convergence this far out likely means the sharp money has already made its decision. Whether the public follows is a different question entirely. With 21 days to post, the rest of the market is still finding its level — and the gaps between sources are where the value conversations start. This table aggregates four sources we consider reliable and current: the DRF Derby Watch analyst line from David Aragona, Caesars Sportsbook live futures, Ed DeRosa’s line at Horse Racing Nation, and Oddschecker international best prices. We will update it regularly as the market moves toward May 2. Click on the live links to visit the original sources.
A fifth column — the ITM Composite Line, built on proprietary speed figures — is coming. In the Money Plus subscribers will get it first.
| Horse | DRF | HRN/DeRosa | Caesars | Oddschecker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renegade | 4-1 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 7/2 ▼ |
| Commandment | 5-1 | 6-1 | 7-1 | 11/2 |
| Further Ado | 5-1 | 5-1 | 8-1 | 7-1 |
| The Puma | 8-1 | 8-1 | 12-1 | 12-1 |
| Chief Wallabee | 10-1 | bubble | 10-1 | 16-1 |
| So Happy | 12-1 | 25-1 | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Emerging Market | 15-1 | 16-1 | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Potente | 15-1 | 50-1 | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Fulleffort | 12-1 | 12-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Silent Tactic | 20-1 | 50-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Incredibolt | 25-1 | 100-1 | — | 25-1 |
| Danon Bourbon | 25-1 | 50-1 | — | 20-1 |
| Iron Honor ▲ PENDING | — | — | — | 33-1 |
| Albus | 30-1 | 125-1 | 40-1 | 33-1 |
| Golden Tempo | 30-1 | 50-1 | — | 33-1 |
| Pavlovian | — | 75-1 | — | 40-1 |
| Wonder Dean | — | 50-1 | — | 33-1 |
| Six Speed | — | 98-1 | — | 20-1 |
| Ottinho | — | 125-1 | — | 50-1 |
| Stark Contrast | — | 30-1 | — | 66-1 |
| Right to Party | — | 125-1 | — | 50-1 |
Sources: DRF Derby Watch (Aragona) ·
HRN fair odds (Ed DeRosa, April 6) ·
Caesars Sportsbook ·
Oddschecker
Chief Wallabee listed as “bubble” in HRN — not yet confirmed in field. Dashes indicate horse not listed by that source. Updated April 11, 2026.
