A shoutout to PTF and Ray Cotolo for carrying the torch on the Kentucky Downs coverage over the weekend. I’m back covering the quirky track for the remainder of the meet which just has four racing cards remaining. Hopefully, we can build on the success of last Thursday’s analysis where we tabbed 7 winners on top from the 11 races and our top pick never finished out of the money.
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Selections
- Race 1: 1-2-8-11
- Race 2: 8-4-9-11
- Race 3: 7-8-10-12
- Race 4: 3-7-5-6
- Race 5: 10-1-11-2
- Race 6: 11-6-7-4
- Race 7: 3-7-5-9
- Race 8: 5-1-7-11
- Race 9: 8-6-5-3
- Race 10: 12-10-2-7
- Race 11: 5-10-8-1
Kentucky Downs Race 1: Jirah (#1) at 6-1 or higher
I’m thinking Carson Street (#3) might go off favored in this spot given the presence of Irad Ortiz and the fact Brendan Walsh has pretty solid numbers with firsters. However, this race looks pretty open, so I went price shopping. Two other logical contenders I wouldn’t discount are Jet Off (#2) and Mister Punch (#8) who both go out for dangerous connections. Jet Off makes his turf debut after being meant for that surface in his initial start, but the race was rained off. He displayed some talent to post quick fractions before tiring late, I’m just worried he’ll be overbet off that juicy 8-1 morning line. Mister Punch has a similar look to the winner of last Thursday’s lid-lifter as that one was also a Brad Cox debut runner. There’s pedigree and trainer success, but I’ve opted for a bigger price. I’m hoping Jirah (#1) gets overlooked at the windows given the fact he was beaten 8 lengths on debut, but that race was over for him after the break especially going 5.5f. The Kelsey Danner barn excels with this move posting a 7/37 (19%, $2.57 ROI) with 2YO second-time starters in turf maiden races and has a positive ROI overall with juveniles at this track.
Kentucky Downs Race 2: Mildred Pierce (#8) at 5-1 or higher
I’m not exactly thrilled with the short prices on the morning line here as I generally try to fade Chad Brown runners at Kentucky Downs given his $1.32 ROI at the track in the last five years. Weighted Average (#11) can certainly win here, but it’s a pretty tall task to be ready off this layoff. Selfless (#10) got a run in at Saratoga last time, but was given no chance wide around the turn, I just didn’t like her other races. Rather Distinct (#9) looks like a horse that might wake up at Kentucky Downs as Eddie Kenneally brings back this daughter of Justify out of a Galileo mare and it’s interesting Irad hops aboard this 20-1 ML shot. I’m also interested in Unmerited Favor (#4) who gets Jose Ortiz after an encouraging run at Ellis last out. However, I’ve opted to make another one my top play in this race. I was really taken by the improved run by Mildred Pierce (#8) in her most recent start despite a 3-wide trip. Jimmy Toner horses often improve with racing and I believe this regally bred daughter of Uncle Mo will appreciate the stretch-out to this 11.5f trip. Her dam is War Flag who won the 2017 G1-Flower Bowl going 10f and has produced two different graded stakes winners going marathon distances.
Kentucky Downs Race 6: Good Game (#11) at 5-1 or higher
As much as I’d like to look at Love Song (#1) through my Colonial rose-colored glasses, I’m not sure I get her as the favorite in this N1X. While she narrowly lost at Colonial last time, this seems like a tougher field and she had a wicked pace to close into. Of the logicals, I prefer Massarat (#7) who is already proven at a top circuit with her maiden win at Churchill back in June and Brendan Walsh knows which winners to bring back to Kentucky Downs posting a record of 4/22 (18%, $2.12 ROI) with last out victors in races over this strip. I don’t think she’ll be a super appealing price though and there’s some others worth including. Always Forever (#6) probably won’t go off the 8-1 she is on the morning line, but there’s plenty to like given her human connections (Cox/Gaffalione) and tactical speed. However, I’ve opted for a runner that is likely to be closer to her morning line in Good Game (#11). This daughter of Game Winner looks to appreciate this stretch-out to 11.5f doing a lot of her best running late in races and I find it particularly interesting that Geroux lands here despite usually riding first call for Cox.
Kentucky Downs Race 9: Pharoah’s Wine (#8) at 7-2 or higher
I wouldn’t argue with the fact that a case could be made for any of the nine runners in the featured One Dreamer Stakes. That’s the reason I wouldn’t want to take a short price on horses like Grayosh (#4) or Vive Vueve (#5) despite the fact that the former won a G2 last year over She Feels Pretty and the latter has been ultra-impressive in her last two starts. The scratch of No Mo Candy (#7) makes Waves of Mischief (#3) more dangerous than when this race was fully assembled, though I don’t project that my top pick Pharoah’s Wine (#8) will be that far behind early and could get the jump on the closers. This American Pharoah filly will look to continue the banner year for trainer Dale Romans who is hitting at 22% this year. Her speed figures put her right in the mix and she actually soundly defeated morning line favorite Vive Vueve three-back. While she disappointed in the G2-Music City here last year, she has proven to handle Kentucky Downs in the past breaking her maiden over this course and distance by 3.25 lengths.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 + 2025 Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 87-20-15-8 (23%, $2.16); Featured Horses: 29-6-6-6 (21%, $3.34)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 51-6-7-5 (12%, $1.94); Featured Horses: 21-3-3-5 (14%, $3.61)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 20%; C’s: 23%; X’s: 6%
