Welcome to Mint Millions Day! This is a big marathon day of racing for Labor Day as we reach the homestretch of the Kentucky Downs meet. Hopefully this is not as uphill a climb as the finish at Kentucky Downs, but we’ll still take our shots with some spot plays in the first two races and some other possibly live horses to use in the trove of stakes races on the card.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 6 RECAP

Race 1 – We gave a shot to #4 Flaming Fast who took a decent amount of early money before floating to 21-1, and he did not really factor beyond the early stages of the race. The Asmussen firster, #1 Megacenter, broke towards the back and just picked up whatever pieces were left in the wake of a romp by 1-5 favorite #5 Hemingway. Nothing missed here; turn the page.

Race 2 – This race truly did have no speed with the field stacking through a :25 first quarter until Flavien Prat decided to take the lead with 5-2 chalk #2 Warlander. Our call, #9 My Boy Tony at a nice price of 7-1, was restrained off the speed by Ben Curtis, which at first was frustrating until the horse started climbing towards the leader around the last turn. My Boy Tony did not fire from that move, whether from having to fight the rider through the early stages or because that was just the run he’d put together I can’t really tell though he managed to hold third. But another Mike Maker horse wins over a long distance on the Kentucky Downs turf. Even Nostradamus could see it coming.

Race 3 – Summer Pauly got the better of the obvious in the race when downing #4 Alta Avenue in the final strides with 26-1 shot #7 Diablo Shiraz, who is another to elevate form here at Kentucky Downs from an off-track line over at Ellis Park for whatever that little tidbit is worth this meet. Joe Sharp’s runner, #6 Queen of Queens, went off the 3-1 favorite and finished an even fifth while #5 Jaboss, who I thought would outrace his odds, did not. He broke slowly and raced wide throughout, and neither of those are great conditions to win a horse race, let alone at Kentucky Downs. Oh well.

Race 5 – The top call, #9 Great Grenzen, was in a solid forward position but tired badly to finish last while my other two shouts completed the top two. #7 Songadeewin did in fact improve second start off the bench at odds of 5-1 and got a great ride from Danny Sheehy to save ground over #10 Ubi, the first-time starter for Chris Block. Together, the exacta paid $36 for a buck, which isn’t bad.

Win!

Race 8 – I scratched with #2 Bourbon Memory along with half of the field in this stake that became a match race. If I bet #3 May Day Ready then #4 Miwa would win, but if I bet Miwa then May Day Ready would win. I bet neither and May Day Ready won, so I walk away with at least a fiver still in pocket.

We passed so we won!

Race 10 – Nobody was beating #8 Stellify, who you could’ve figured out was the horse to beat without reading one of my stupid articles. For a second I thought #7 Public Assembly would finish second best until she wavered on the uphill climb, finishing sixth at odds of 15-1. Nothing really lost here, but nothing to have even gained with a 1-2 winner in this stake.

MONDAY, SEPT. 7 ANALYSIS

Race 1 | $170,000 Maiden, for F&M 3YO & Up | 1-5/16 Miles (Turf)

Quick peek at this Maiden race that could be a waste of time because Brad Cox and Flavien Prat are better than everybody and win everything now, but I got my eye on one for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Micah Husbands in #6 Treasured Times, who showed speed for the first time in her career in her sophomore bow and ran an even second after trip trouble over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. She’s had some sneaky late runs going routes on the turf in a pair of starts at 2, so I think this is a potentially live profile stretching out especially with Essential Quality/Tapit on the sire side, dirt classic wins be damned.

Longshot Use: #6 Treasured Times (15-1 ML)

Race 2 | $100,000 Auction Maiden, for 2YO Fillies | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Maybe not much of a revelation to say that #1 She Knows Better can put together a good run in this spot at second asking after kicking well on a yielding course from a missed break. She has the opportunity to land more prominently while also getting to the even fresher ground with the rail (I presume from the program) moved from 25 feet to zero feet for this card. The fresh ground is also why I give a peak to #11 Pretty Patriotic, who folded in her debut on the dirt at Ellis when dueling for the lead while bet heavily to 5-2 odds. She can break forward and hopefully land into a good position on firm footing against this group of mostly firsters, because if she can cross over she may stand a good chance to carry that speed over this surface.

Potential Blast Off Speed: #11 Pretty Patriotic (10-1 ML)
Should Improve Second Out: #1 She Knows Better (9/2 ML)

Race 7 | $750,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes | 1 Mile (Turf)

Brad Cox and Flavien Prat are better than everyone else. But that much aside, I of course have my sights on the Joseph O’Brien runner in #9 Citrus Springs, who certainly is at risk of leaving the gate underlaid by virtue of being trained by an O’Brien of any kind. But she’s at least shipping over for this race on a nice trajectory with every start being better than the last, and her most recent being a five-length romp over 15 rivals.

Brendan Walsh also has a filly that stands to race well in #4 Smoke as long as her maiden victory isn’t an outlier. I’m not inclined to think it is because she put together good even runs at sprints on the dirt over at Keeneland and Churchill, and I especially like that she stuck close to a quick pace and kicked clear with ease for a three-length win. That’s the type of trip that probably wins in a race like this, but I think 12-1 on the morning line is wishful thinking (plus who knows if we get Tyler Gaffalione since he nipped his ankle when a horse reared in the gate on Sunday).

Speaking of who knows – who knows if we even have three of the runners in this field since the top three from an allowance race on Aug. 29 are entered here in #6 Duty Bound, #7 Elegante Miz and #5 Cardio Cat. Running back late in the Kentucky Downs meet is not an unheard of thing given the purse offerings and we’ve seen at least one score on a short turnaround in that Miguel Clement horse that won a stake on Saturday. Yet, a pair from that race are deeper closing types that I feel may be left with too much work to do, so in the event they come in I probably like #7 Elegante Miz the best of them because she can break and settle into a stalking spot to finish well, like she did to almost win that allowance against Duty Bound.

Euro to Beware: #9 Citrus Springs (6-1 ML)
Possible Prices: #4 Smoke (12-1 ML), #7 Elegante Miz (10-1 ML)
Favorite to Beat: #1 Conflict (7/5 ML)

Race 8 | $250,000 Lucky Lantern Stakes | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

This is a very good race that’s loaded with speed and will likely be determined by the jockey with the most savvy for horse placement. In other words, this is a terrible race to handicap because so many different horses stand a chance to win. Here’s one bozo’s attempt to rationalize this race:

I feel like, because I see so many horses that love to break on the lead, that I want a horse that can sit just off of the lead. Now of course I don’t envision this to be a race where they’re six wide to the turn. I also acknowledge that they absolutely could stack six wide to the turn; that’s one of my dilemmas. And I don’t just want a stalker, I want a handy stalker – a horse that has shown they can get into a rhythm off the speed and make their punch. Oh, and I don’t want them to be a short price. Basically I want this race to be Christmas and my possible presents are #3 Epic Lady Luck and #8 Just a Minute. Epic Lady Luck enters from a perfect primer off a layoff at Ellis Park when she rallied for second over a yielding course in the Galway Stakes while Just A Minute has shown sharp flourishes from off the speed since returning to turf sprints with improved figures each time. Sure others may fit that bill, but this pair stands to probably offer the best bang for the buck inside of this race. I’ll happily either be right or wrong on these.

Pouncing Prices: #3 Epic Lady Luck (8-1 ML), #8 Just a Minute (10-1 ML)

Race 9 | $1,750,000 Gun Runner Stakes | 1 Mile (Turf)

Pick your chalk! Any chalk! Would you like the Brad Cox and Flavien Prat runner? I’ve heard they’re better than everyone, and they team with Juddmonte on #2 Touch of Fire! Or maybe you want the improving Miguel Clement runner #6 Bottas with Jose Ortiz? I know, if you don’t like those two you’re probably more of a person to want #9 Infiltrate for Brendan Walsh, maybe even Vladimir Cerin’s one-time Kentucky Derby contender #10 Mr. A. P. Basically, whichever one isn’t the favorite is probably value. And if I had to guess this far out, Prat and Cox are probably the favorite.

I would be pleasantly surprised if anyone beyond these four won this race, and honestly I give a slight nod to Bottas because of his upward trajectory for a barn that can prime them for these spots and to Infilatrate who has run great in every start and varying distances, plus he’s eligible to improve second start off the layoff from a nice runner-up finish in the Secretariat at Colonial in early August.

Very Obvious Counters to Prat-Cox: #6 Bottas (4-1 ML), #9 Infiltrate (6-1 ML)

Race 10 | $2,000,000 Mint Millions Invitational Stakes (GIII) | 1 Mile (Turf)

Prat has another live mount surprisingly not for Brad Cox in this race but for Michael McCarthy on #9 Formidable Man. The horse enters this race with a profile that could place him in the most conducive spot to pounce over this track while also running figures that do stand out inside of this race. But I’m giving #2 Brilliant Berti a bit of a look since he’s managed to not break too far off the speed in his last few starts and put together a great effort to win his most recent in a listed stake at Ellis Park. As long as he can got out cleanly, he should be plugging late.

I’m stuck trying to figure out what to do about #8 Gran Oriente since he also has a running style that could put him in a winning spot. He raced forwardly in the Arlington Million and couldn’t hold off Burnham Square, who put together a level run to finish off the board on Saturday. But the Million hasn’t been that much of a dud race because Dresden Row, who finished third, bested all of the North American horses running in that same stake on Saturday. He also may benefit cutting back to a mile here when clearly tired in the late stages, so maybe he’s worth tabbing at like a 7-1 number if we get it.

Main Use: #2 Brilliant Berti (8-1 ML)
Also Use: #8 Gran Oriente (10-1 ML)

Race 11 | $1,500,000 Mint Franklin-Simpson Stakes (GII) | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

I don’t really know how this race is going to run but I know which horses I like, so I hope that’s a good compromise. Of course #10 Take Charge Star is worth keeping in orbit as he’s entering from improved efforts at graded stakes company overseas, but the whole “Euro winning at Kentucky Downs” angle is nothing revolutionary.

I am super intrigued by Asmussen putting #12 Obliteration into this race because he’s been a terrific sprinter that seemingly has a strong foundation, judging by the fact he was able to romp in a stake at Oaklawn, ship to Saudi Arabia to finish second in the Saudi Derby, and returned to America three months later to win the Chick Lang. He then finished best of the rest behind Englishman and Crude Velocity in the Woody Stephens and switches to the turf off an okay run in the Amsterdam at odds on. This is probably the classiest horse in the race who could level up on the surface switch, and honestly finishing third behind Englishman is a strong-enough badge for me to use in this race.

This also could be a spot for another Kinnon LaRose runner to put together a solid effort with #4 Oscar’s Hope making his second start in a turf sprint off a great run despite trouble in a graded stake over at Saratoga. The horse has always been capable sprinting and seems to do well chasing a target, so this could be a race that provides those conditions for Ben Curtis to give him a good run.

Potential Class Edge: #12 Obliteration (8-1 ML)
Obligatory Euro Use: #10 Take Charge Star (4-1 ML)
Also Use: #4 Oscar’s Hope (8-1 ML)

Best of luck in all of your plays on Mint Millions Day.