Welcome back for day five of the seven-day meet at Kentucky Downs. We pick up here after a day where we had some good ideas that didn’t really pay off to much, so I guess how good of ideas could they really be in the scope of horse betting? I’m doing my best here trying to understand these races without seeing odds on a board or horses on the track, so bear with me.

Today I’ve chosen select races early in the card; I thought about doing the Early Pick 5, but I had absolutely nothing to offer in the fourth race that the morning line or tote board probably couldn’t tell you already. Not that I’m averse to giving out chalk, but I want to offer horses that I think will be overlaid inside of their spots and most favorites just don’t fit that billing.

Anywho:

SATURDAY, SEPT. 5 RECAP

Race 1 – We couldn’t best the two chalks while getting an actionable price on #2 Middlemist in the debut. Gaffalione put Middlemist in a terrific spot and was travelling under a nice hold until the bottom of the last turn when Tyler decided his “best” chances laid outside while Geroux got a golden seam on the fresh ground at the rail with 5/2 second choice #4 Monique En Vol. Middlemist also showed greenness in the run (which you can expect from a firster) since he seemed to keep fighting but stood no match to hold on for second from 9/5 fave #7 Viaggio. We took a shot, we missed. Felt well meant with how he ran but couldn’t topple the obvious with a top-connection winner for trainer Brad Cox and St. Elias Stable.

Race 6 – The inside ground with the rail moved from 50 feet to 25 feet is certainly sharp. So is Joe – his horses have finally been connecting as has Jose Ortiz, who Michael Wrona noted won on eight of last 13 mounts. Money certainly came for #6 Possiblemente, down to 9/2 from the 10-1 morning line, and was one I felt had a puncher’s chance but as one of my alternate types. He landed in the spot I imagined for #11 John the Beer Man on the lead, but I guess much of the public felt similarly since they bet the Rob Atras runner down to 7/5, too south for my blood. My main fancy in the race (with #1 Troubleshooting scratched and #4 Beach Gold taking too much play as a longshot type) became #8 Okiro, who did indeed have to run from last but had no luck to take advantage of the inside ground with all the traffic to navigate. Firmer footing probably would not have landed her more prominently on the ticket, so this is a race where I just turn the page. You wouldn’t need me to tell you that a jockey-trainer combo that’s connecting can win in a spot like this, the board usually says that.

Race 7 – I was surprised that #1 Tiffany was dismissed to nearly 7-1 odds as I thought she would be a solid third choice inside of that race, so I feel dumb not really making a note of it since the Euros felt like a given in this sort of race. #3 Dresden Row was the top call as the main counterpunch to #7 Burnham Square, who didn’t really fire at odds of 3-2 while Dresden Row finished the best of the North American contingent. Total fumble on my part in price projection to not even give Tiffany a shout.

Race 8 – We didn’t get the 3-1 I hoped for on #3 Glacius, but he ran a super game race despite getting collared late by #4 Caroline St. Beat at odds of 17-1, who also didn’t have to run with a four-pound penalty that Glacius did if it means anything. Glacius nearly made all and was well meant, but we flub this race too not having any potential sniff of the Miguel Clement winner that got a great ride from Tyler Gaffalione.

Race 9 – Turns out they could beat #2 Classic Q. I only found out PTF gave a nod to #1 Bless the Broken after I did my handicapping and writing, but kudos to him catching this 8-1 shot that powered over the top to win. Classic Q ran a game race but had too much pressure to handle on all fronts. I honestly forfeited this race because I could not get a good gauge of what prices would be on offer counter to Classic Q, so I didn’t really know where to even attack inside of this race. Price projection continues to be my biggest weakness in handicapping this far out, but we try to keep tightening as the meet comes to a close.

Race 10 – Big surprise with #7 Somerset West rolling over the top to win in a race where odds-on favorite #1 Cy Fair encountered trip trouble all through the closing stages of the race. Our alternate look, #6 Lion Lake, did complete the exacta and came a half length off of winning at odds of 12-1, but not much of something to capitalize on as much as a sense that we were on the right track. But the trouble of this race shows on the board – beyond Cy Fair, #10 Sapphire Beach took money to be a 6-1 second choice but then the next prices were 12-1, 15-1, 17-1, 19-1, 19-1, etc. The race was a smorgasbord of equal propositions because it did seem like a roulette of which outsider would break through. And I didn’t think to break the roulette out on this one, so maybe that was my biggest error – it picked a #7 the last time. Instead, I made the mistake of trying to use my brain and knowhow, which of course is the kiss of death.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 6 ANALYSIS

Race 1 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YOs | 1 Mile (Turf)

Sure #5 Hemingway is 6-5 on the morning line. I don’t really care. I have a little glance at #1 Megacenter for the Asmussens since he draws the rail on debut and was a high-price yearling, and these connections have been known to surprise in spots like this. If he’s under 10-1, I find it tricky to tell whether he’s taking heat on the connections or on merit in the race, so tread cautiously there.

It may sound ridiculous, but I don’t mind #4 Flaming Fast, who certainly won’t be close to 30-1 on the morning line. This gelding adds blinkers after running rank on debut, which maybe is a negative since he still was hard to handle after getting gelded, but he showed a good amount of speed that could do well in this race if Fernando De La Cruz can get a good hold of him. That’s all I have. I swear I didn’t look to Flaming Fast because he’s the longest shot on the morning line; that genuinely is not a bad line he threw on debut, plus he’s stretching out.

Longshot I’m Watching: #4 Flaming Fast (30-1 ML)
Maybe Steps Up First Out: #1 Megacenter (8-1 ML)

Race 2 | $180,000 Allowance N1X, for 3YOs & Up | 1-1/2 Miles (Turf)

This is a pretty level race on figures, so I wouldn’t take anyone at a short number (probably south of 9/2 for my taste). This is also a race that does not have much speed at a distance where (for the most part) speed has been advantageous; I’m thinking of that race on Saturday Idratherbeblessed won, for example. #1 Monterey Bay is potentially one to go forward along with #10 Time Song exiting hurdles, but I do feel #9 My Boy Tony can land closer to the action and certainly can handle the distance. I’d hope for better than 7-1 in a spot like this, though I don’t know that I could be confident enough to single him in multis. I probably could single him by virtue of either taking him or taking nearly all, so for sake of equity I’ll just try to lean on my possibly fledgling opinion.

Value Horse in Possible Speed Vacuum: #9 My Boy Tony (8-1 ML)

Race 3 | $100,000 Starter Allowance $50,000, for 3YOS | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Maybe a fool’s errand to go against #4 Alta Avenue for David Jacobson and #6 Queen of Queens with the way Jose Ortiz and Joe Sharp have been going, so I just want to note that I think there’s a chance #5 Jaboss outraces her odds. She showed positional speed for the first time in her career in her last race over at Ellis before switching into Whit Beckman’s stable, which I think is an intriguing switch. She showed some promise as a 2-year-old and hasn’t raced poorly as a 3-year-old, but he certainly could race better. Her last effort over the slop at Ellis could be a sign that she’s moving in the right direction and I’d hope to get a whiff of her at good odds in a spot like this.

Logicals: #4 Alta Avenue (3-1 ML), #6 Queen of Queens (9/2 ML)
May Outrace Her Odds: #5 Jaboss (15-1 ML)

Race 5 | $100,000 Auction Maiden, for 2YO Fillies | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

I flagged #9 Great Grenzen for another race this meet off that debut run, but she scratched from that race being an also eligible. She lands in another auction maiden here off a debut where she showed nice fight from a tough spot off the speed to grind a fourth-place finish, and that sort of gumption has to go a long way against a cheaper group like this (I’d think). I also expect an improved performance from #7 Songadeewin after breaking slowly on debut but rolling well late to get fourth. Chris Block also has a potentially swift one in #10 Ubi if that :59.4 breeze on Aug. 28 is a sign of anything. They usually call him Chris “Quick off the” Block for a reason. At least I call him that. If nobody calls him that, that’s my nickname. I coined it.

Top Call: #9 Great Grenzen (8-1 ML)
Could Improve Second Out: #7 Songadeewin (9/2 ML)
Could Be Ready First Out: #10 Ubi (6-1 ML)

Race 8 | $500,000 One Dreamer Stakes, for F&M 3YO & Up | 1-1/16 Miles (Turf)

I’m hoping to get back on the pony after just absolute flubs in the stakes on Saturday. Saffie’s runner, #1 Hang the Moon, will take reasonable play given her consistent runs at good figures and #4 Miwa will take action because of Ortiz and Sharp, but I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on #2 Bourbon Memory since she’s trending in a good direction since coming back to a route. My main concern is that she finished level last out because of losing Lasix, but she has room to level up from that run on base form.

Hoping She Improves at an Okay Number: #2 Bourbon Memory (9/2 ML)

Race 10 | $1,500,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Invitational Stakes (GIII) | 1-5/16 Miles (Turf)

You either believe #8 Stellify will roll or you don’t. She tried different tactics in the Beverly D and had nice late speed to signal to me that she likely was prepping for this race (or the Breeders’ Cup, since she didn’t resurface for 2026 until the Beverly D in early August). I see a case to not throw her out because she’s lost her last two races, but how lucrative is it for me to forgive one like her?

Luis Saez was able to surprise in the sprint with a California runner on Saturday and I wonder if he could surprise in the marathon with another California runner in #7 Public Assembly for Phil D’Amato. I don’t know what the overall scope of pace is for this race from the page, but part of me feels that Saez could plant this mare into a tactical spot out of the gate judging on her longer-distance runs, where she’s sat closer to the speed. Figure-wise she should fit this race, but that in part is depending on Stellify throwing a clunker since she’s got some of the best figures in the race (potentially pumped a few points by the fact that she’s a long-distance runner, which is mainly worth considering when comparing to others stretching out from something like eight furlongs and change). Otherwise I feel like the board will have the obvious contenders of this covered.

Outsider Use: #7 Public Assembly (10-1 ML)

Best of luck to all of you playing with just three days left of the meet.