King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (15:35 BST, Ascot, Saturday)
#1 Calandagan – last year’s winner confirmed himself a gelding out of the very top drawer with subsequent wins in the Champion Stakes, Japan Cup and Dubai Sheema Classic. He bombed out on his return from a short break at Epsom but the ground was too soft and I don’t think the course at Epsom really allows him to show his best. Ascot is very much his track, however, and perfectly suits his come from behind style. He bounced back to winning ways in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last time out despite racing against the flow, throwing in a 10.55 penultimate furlong to quicken past rivals who were going sub 11 seconds themselves. He faces better opposition here but the track, better pace (potentially; more on that later) and ground are all big positives and he should move forward again for last run in terms of fitness. Stall 7 looks ideal for him to swing out to unleash his kick down the middle and he is very much the one to beat, although his price reflects this.
#2 Goliath – a stablemate of Calandagan, this gelding was an electric winner of this in 2024, but he hasn’t quite hit those heights subsequently having scored just once at this level since in Germany. He has looked right back to his best in his two most recent starts, including last time in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot where it looked like he was coming with a winning run until Soumillon’s foot slipped out of the iron. Would have run to a pretty high level there with Kalpana and Giavellotto top-class yardsticks and certainly not impossible he could spring a minor upset.
#3 Lambourn – a game winner over subsequent Group 1 winner Bay City Roller on his seasonal debut at Chester but has badly lost his way since. Behind that rival at Epsom and was well beaten behind Goliath and Kalpana two back. Also behind Calandagan in France last time and hard to see last year’s Derby winner figuring here – indeed, he may even be a pacemaker.
#4 Masquerade Ball – fascinating runner shipping over from Japan. Top-class form in his homeland and he ran extremely well when just beaten a head by Calandagan in the Japan Cup at the end of last season. Just had the one run since when staying on well behind Romantic Warrior, who remains one of the best horses in the world despite his advancing years. Hard to weigh him up ultimately as he’s tended to come up short in the really big races, but entirely possible he has improved again from 3-4 as these Japanese runners tend to do and conditions should be fine. 3-4lbs to find with Calandagan but faces him at the peak of his powers under optimum conditions and I just think Calandagan is better at this time. But the odds do reflect this.
#5 Wurttemburg – Japanese stayer who looks a fair bit below Masquerade Ball on their home form. He should be ridden to finish off what may be a fast pace and he comes here off a career best having progressed steadily from much lower levels into Grade 1 company. Oisin Murphy rides and he could improve again, so it’s not impossible he could reward each-way bets.
#6 Kalpana – elite mare who deserves to land a big prize such as this but can’t quite get the job done. A length behind Calandagan in this last year but she showed a good kick there and maybe the way the race panned out didn’t really suit her, with her giving Calandagan a target to run down, which in fairness he did emphatically. Would probably prefer a little more give in the ground. Narrowly touched off in the Hardwicke last time out so no reason to think she’s not as good as ever and should run her race, particularly if ridden with a bit of restraint.
#7 Minnie Hauk – Arc runner up last year which clearly is amongst the best form on offer. Looked back to her best when chasing Ombudsman home in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes last time out, no match for that rival but keeping on well with good colts in behind. She should enjoy the return to this trip and we know she likes fast ground, however concerns around stable form and a poor draw in stall 1 would be enough to put me off playing at too short a price.
#8 Action – ran well in Dante but that form hasn’t worked out and bombed in both English and Irish Derbys. Will be a pacemaker here if he runs.
#9 Benevenuto Cellini – we all know what happened in the English Derby where he was eventually declared a non-runner, but he showed his true class at the Curragh last time out, sweeping to the front off fractions that were not frenetic and showing by far the sharpest turn of foot. Clearly a top class colt, he has a bit to find on pure ratings and form but should have more in the locker. Conditions should suit and it’s interesting that Ballydoyle managed to beat Calandagan in the Coronation Cup last year with Jan Breughal with perfectly executed team tactics. On paper, they have two pacemakers in here – Lambourn and Action – but I wonder if these may be red herrings and that they might not go that fast with the aim of getting Benevenuto Cellini in front of Calandagan and getting first run on him, exploiting the turn of foot we saw in the Irish Derby last time out. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out and those tactics could tip the balance, but assuming a fair race he will need another career best, although maybe this improving high class colt can pull it off. I wish the stable were in better form, however.
Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes (13:45 BST, Ascot, Saturday)
This is a Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, so we’ll be looking at this both from the perspective of who wins tomorrow and whether they might prove suited to the mile trip at Keeneland down the line.
It’s hard to see Alta Regina fitting the bill for the latter but this six furlong distance should suit. She’s probably got the best form and figures with the five furlong Queen Mary looking the strongest and fastest of the juvenile races for fillies at Royal Ascot. Her final furlong was one of the best in the field having been tapped for toe over two furlongs out, and she ran on really nicely despite looking green. She should get an efficient ride here and must go close with improvement to come, although a mile seems unlikely to suit her long-term.
Dark Issue ran a similar sort of race in the Albany Stakes, with the form of that contest already working out. That was over this course and distance so she has less scope for improvement than Alta Regina, but she is drawn slightly better and is still learning the game herself. Her connections wouldn’t be the biggest supporters of the Breeders’ Cup so she may not run even if she wins here.
That wouldn’t apply to Dee’s Funny Girl, who was snapped up by Medallion Racing following a debut win. She was a bit closer to the hot pace than Dark Issue last time but was left behind by that rival in the final furlong and on paper shouldn’t reverse that form, although she’s had a nice trainer switch since and should improve again, particularly with Ryan Moore aboard. Her owner and trainer, Donnacha O’Brien, won the JFT last year with Balantina and I imagine that race will be the target for this girl regardless of the result here, although I’m doubtful she’s a miler.
Moonrise and Harlequin Sky look more interesting for the Breeders’ Cup, particularly if they were able to win tomorrow. They finished 2nd and 3rd in the Windsor Castle last time out but were taking on colts and both have lots of stamina in their pedigree, particularly the latter of that pair who flew home last time. That race looks weaker than some of the other juvenile races run at Royal Ascot that week, however, and the form is working out poorly.
