PTF and JK are here to talk about all 6 Grade 1 races on Saturday including the Preakness.
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Hello, and welcome to let loose. Episode seven. I’m your host, Peter Thomas foreign hotel. Happy to be with you coming to you from the auxiliary offices of the thoroughbred retirement foundation today, and very happy to be joined remotely from a man who’s back in his native planet. The planet, Texas. He’s the people’s champion.
Jonathan kitchen. What’s up J K. Are you jealous of my lighting? It’s it’s uh, I got, I got proper lighting over here from, uh, doing the Fox shows from here. So not a lot of fun to be home. I knew what was going to happen. I knew that the day I left Saratoga, I was ready to leave. And I knew that after about 30 minutes of sitting on my couch back home, I was going to start wondering where I was going to go to dinner.
And if saliva was open and now I’m deep in the missing of Saratoga, it happens, man. But I’ll tell you what, there’s so much going on this weekend. It’ll be a distraction to [00:01:00] those memories because between Keeneland and Pimlico and Belmont, then California, there is just loads of racing action. Most of it.
Pointing straight forward to the breeders cup. We’re going to get into the six grade one races happening across the country this weekend. But first I’m going to tell folks about an incredible offer. And when I say incredible, I truly mean it this time because so many ADW offers even ones we’ve done before on the show they’re geared towards new players.
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Now, head to the twin spires offers page for all the [00:02:00] details. We’ll also make it easy for you and give you a shortcut in the money podcast.com/twin spires. We’ll take you there as well. JK all this racing going on across the country this weekend, I’m going to ask you to pick one race. You’re the most looking forward to seeing either as a fan or a better.
Well, I think that regardless of the time of the year, when we have a handful of classics in this country, that that really gets you going, and it doesn’t have the same feel. It’s not two weeks after the Derby, but I’m always excited to see the Preakness. Excited to see art collector, get back, uh, get back going.
I thought he would have been extremely dangerous and the Kentucky Derby excited to see this kind of new version of authentic, authentic was meant to be a great horse earlier this year. And then he kinda went, uh, went a little bit of stray and then his monomyth when the Haskell wasn’t overly impressive.
And now after winning the Kentucky Derby, he’s kind of proven that he’s a top class horse. So looking forward to seeing that race. And then anytime I grow, a newspaper record is running. I’m always [00:03:00] excited to see her as well. Good stuff. Well, that’s a perfect segue. Let’s start off with the first item on my rundown here.
And that is the Preakness stakes. Let’s start with a very basic question. Is it just about Baffert here? Is this a case of authentic being the horse with the best, last race and thousand words being the interesting challenger is, uh, the white haired wonder going to make this his eighth Preakness stakes are passing the record held by our Wyndham Walden of seven Preakness.
Victor’s who’s currently taught with obviously JK. Is it just backward? I’m picking authentic. Um, so yes, I believe it is, um, to a certain extent. Now, if art collector and authentic were to switch post positions, I would switch my pick. I like the fact that authentic is drawn outside. They’re both tactical horses.
I think it’s going to be a little bit like Curlin and street sense. The two best horses are going to go one, two around there. And I think that’s what we’ll see. Um, I just think [00:04:00] that, uh, authentic has that advantageous posts he showed last time that he can. Set extremely fast fractions. I think Johnny is going to ride the horse with a ton of confidence after the performance he had in the Kentucky Derby.
So I think that’s all about him. A little bit concerned about thousand words, putting the blinkers on changing things up in the middle of Cod of his late three-year-old year. I think that’s a little bit curious, makes me a little bit concerned about, uh, how I think he’ll run. Look, I’ll I’ll I say I guaranteed thousand words is going to hit the board and the Kentucky Derby.
And unfortunately he didn’t get to run in the Kentucky Derby, but I think he’s got a great shot at hitting the board today. Or Saturday, but I think it’s just these two horses. I think it’s art collector and, uh, and, uh, authentic. And in fact, in some other things I gave out, I gave out a hundred dollar play for this race, and I gave a $70 Exacta with authentic and art collector and a $30 exactly the other way with art collector and authentic.
If somehow art collector can either get loose or get outside of author. [00:05:00] Conspicuously absent from your remarks to this point, JK was any word about Kenny McPeak Philly, Swiss skydiver, who appears here after disappointing in the Kentucky Oaks, but having that bold run in the Alabama, do you give her any count in here or is she a de facto takeout reducer?
Take out reducer. Um, look, it’s coming from a guy who has a tattoo of Rachel Alexandra on his arm. I’m not picking a Philly like Swiss skydiver to win the Oaks. After what I saw with Rachel Alexandra, her performance in the Oaks, and then onto the Preakness, I think I misspoke. I meant Swiss skydiver and the Preakness.
The other thing is, is Swiss skydiver got beat. By a 20 something, a one shot, like 15 to one shot. I just have no interest in hurting this race. She’s facing real race horses, art collector, and in, uh, authentic, we saw what art collector did to her and the bluegrass turned her away. And, uh, I think this version of art collector is probably better than the longer, the better for art collector.[00:06:00] And I’m not sure that, uh, that Swiss skydiver wants that distance verse. These horses. I know she ran well in a mile and a quarter in the Alabama, but she wasn’t facing what she’s going to be facing on Saturday are a well-known member of the Steve fan club. I think you even carry the card around with you in your wallet.
He’s got three in the Preakness. Do you see any of them as genuine contenders, at least for the underneath spots? Well, people with hair stick together. Right. You know, it’s a, it’s a thing you might not be familiar with it, but it’s a thing that
you and Andy certainly are the only people I’ve picked on for being follicly challenged, but that’s could you guys give me such a hard time? Um, you know, I think there’s a world in which I liked pneumatic for a long time. I just, these are real race horses, art collector, um, and authentic the speed figures that they’ve run the performances they’ve had.
They’re tactical. I just don’t see any of those other horses turning the table on them. Um, if anyone were to get the job done outside of those two, maybe thousand [00:07:00] words at the blinkers, really wake the horse up, the pace heats up. I’m not going to fall for Mr. Big news. I thought last time was the time for him.
You got a beautiful run from him and often those late flashing Kentucky Derby winners continue to be over bet in their careers, just because people remember seeing them run. Um, I just don’t see anyone else winning this race, but a authentic or art collector. You’ve already tipped your hand about how you’re going to be playing this race vertically with your exact weighted towards authentic, including art collector.
What about in the horizontals? Will you single and move on? Will you use both of them in the, yeah. You know, I got to do a little bit of a deeper dive on the undercard races, but depending on how, where I’m at in those situations, strong opinions, uh, lockup races, so on and so forth. I’m gonna look at this race.
One of two ways, one, I’m going to pick up my value by. Just using one of them, which would be authentic, or if I can have authentic as an, a, an art collector as a B, I don’t want to use them equally. There’s no [00:08:00] reason to give away that equity. I have a stance that I’m going to take it. That art collector is going to be the second, most likely winner of the race.
So I’m going to focus most of my play around authentic can art collector win? Sure. I’ll have some savers in that regard, but I want most of my money, about 70 to 75% of my money running through, um, authentic. I’m more optimistic about our collector than you are. He is my top pick in the race. I’m hoping he can get his position going forward.
Johnny Velazquez will gun and he’ll be able to flop outside and get that trip that you’re hoping he can get for me in terms of how to play the race. I’ll go mostly in horizontals. There’ll be some, it’s basically the reverse of you. There’ll be some authentic backups, but I’m mostly going to be going with our collector.
I think Bonnie South looks like a good one to single in your late race, horizontals in the blackouts, Susan, the race before this. So that’s how I’m going to be looking at it, but great to hear your thoughts as well. JK let’s move out West slightly to Keeneland. We’ve got three grade ones happening and let’s [00:09:00] start by talking about.
The first lady, this is a rematch of newspaper of record and bow recall. We have Oni in the mix as well. Last year’s breeders’ cup mile winner. What do you think’s going to happen in the first lady, Ken newspaper of record redeem herself. Well, obviously COVID has affected a lot of people in a lot of different ways.
And on the very bottom of that list of things affected, or the fact that newspaper records rider keeps switching. Now, Iran, wasn’t able to come to Churchill still Javier road, Javier now is going to be in New York. So Tyler Gaful Yolande rides. I think it’s interesting to note just because she is kind of a tricky Philly to run to ride she’s she’s the type that.
If you don’t understand what she’s going to give you at the end of the race, you might, misplay what you allow her to do early in the race. I think I rad, finally figured out I can let this beast roll and she’s still gonna kick home. And I’m hoping that Tyler will get that. Yeah, that same kind of idea in his head without having to [00:10:00] actually feel it.
Newspaper of record is one of those horses. I like to call it the game on dude effect and I’m sure some older horse players would find a horse maybe back in the day. That was a little bit more of a promising name to use rather than game on, dude. Not that he has anything to be embarrassed about, but it’s the idea that these horses are better going 46 than they are going 48.
The idea that you get them on the front end, you go 48 and they’re going to have a lot of run left for you. It doesn’t work for these types, their power and their weapon is their speed. Newspaper of record is better off going faster than slower. Getting everyone else off the bridle, making a horse like bowl recall or Boonie move earlier than they want to because they see those red and white silks starting to open up from him.
And I think that that’s the way she needs to be written. Obviously I’m a huge fan. I’m a fan of hers. And I have been for a very long time, but from a horseplaying standpoint, I do believe that that’s how her best race can be run. Now, last time at Churchill, she did get an easy lead and a lot of people are going to say she got an easy [00:11:00] lead.
She turned it down well, She did, but she wasn’t going as fast as I think she needs to go to beat other good horses. And I think that maybe we’ll see that at Keelan, I’m excited to see her run at Keelan. She’s a horse. That’s always in the kind of like a little given the ground and Caitlin’s turn, of course, although he can get from sand based kind of has that more give to it, more of a European feel to it than science-y out in California or elsewhere.
So look, if he thought I was gonna pick someone outside a newspaper record, you clearly don’t pay attention. Let’s move on to the Breeder’s futurity. JK. This race has really proved to be a key prep for the Breeder’s cup juvenile over the years. Who do you think is going to get the money and go on? Is one of the favorites for this year’s BC juvenile?
Well, one of my favorite things about watching broadcast is sports. When I was on them before I was even on them, was kind of getting some of that information right after the moment and on August 15th. When calibrate cross the [00:12:00] wire extremely impressively, uh, Steve Atkinson was asked in the, in the post race interview.
What about the, you know, w what do you think about the, uh, uh, where are we going to see this horse next? Are you going to run them in the hopeful? Are we going to see him in the champagne? And he said that day moments after he’s running in the breeders for charity two turns. At Keeneland. I cannot wait to see this horse run.
I think he’s extremely talented. He was fast that day. He was down on the inside, not exactly where you wanted to be at times during the meet at Saratoga. And he had a lot left in the tank. I’m really looking forward to seeing this horse stretch out here. I think he’s going to be extremely tough to beat.
I couldn’t agree with you more. I remember having the thought about him for a F for the juvenile after that same race. Let’s talk about the Shabbat turf mile. Chad Brown, Bree, a quartet to Lexington here, uh, filled the Moto shipping in with Bowie’s hero. A lot of interesting angles in this race. What do you think is going to happen on Saturday?[00:13:00] Yeah, I’m going to go kind of to the stranger here. I’ve had enough without parole and raging bull. Can they win? Absolutely. But they need things to go exactly their way. They have too many performances that just don’t move me in enough. Um, I’m looking forward to seeing it. Analyze it back analyze it showed, uh, what kind of race horse he was.
And it took a champion, uh, type in Catholic boy to turn analyze in a way, a few times. And outside of that analyze, it’s been a pretty special horse and has run in the breeders cup, I think is one that most will forget. He was a, you know, he got beat by expert. I, but he, he looked like he could have been a winner.
At that point, you had some time off and now he shows back up, he’s a tactical horse. He can finish. He’s an older, more mature horse. And I liked his race at Monmouth, uh, in that comeback race. So for me, um, analyze, it will be my top choice. Like I said, I’m against, uh, without parole and raging bull. I’ve seen enough of their act and Halladay is another one that I think is interesting.
Um, obviously he was going, uh, when things were going well for Todd Pletcher at [00:14:00] Saratoga when he was winning the meetup there. And. Um, but he’s, he’s another one that’s fast. It can get to the front end. And I think that’s something that is interesting to note about him is he had this, this, uh, kind of this moniker, this, this.
This idea that he only wanted from ground and South Florida, but in reality, he’s three per six on, uh, excuse me, four for seven on turf. It’s not firm, so I’m not sure what the weather is going to be like this weekend. But if that ground in the fall day in Lexington has a little given it the holiday we’ll, we’ll appreciate that.
So, uh, give me the horses that are going to be forward, uh, holiday and analyze it, analyze it will be my top topic. I’ll loop back to my opinion here when we get to our plays for Keeneland. And I’ll ask you in the meantime, JK, how are you looking to play these great ones? Is there one race of the three that we just talked about?
You’re looking to dive into where you’re looking to tie them together in some way, shape or form. What’s your thought on that? We drink from this far out? Well, I can tell you one thing, one bed I’m really excited about. Uh, [00:15:00] this weekend, I encourage people to participate in as, as cross country, uh, pick five, all grade, one races between Keenan and Belmont.
So I’ll be definitely participating in that. Assuming this will be in the mix. I don’t have the list in front of me, but, uh, it’s, it you’ll figure it out. It’s whatever. And so this is one that I definitely want to get in all. And then plus just all the traces that they add at Cayman on, on Saturday, I’ll be involved in the pick five.
They have there as well. I love chemos pick five, four or five they pay. Um, so it kind of helps you keep that money moving you can own. So be more aggressive in your construction, understanding that there’s that little safety net of, of four or five. That’s a good point, for sure. For me, one I’m interested in to go back to the Shadwell turf mile for a minute when you’re in raisins for the breeders cup, of course, a parlor I think is an interesting item for Mike maker.
Very difficult to run well over Kentucky downs is testing configuration off a long layoff. I thought source ran pretty well there, and I think he almost has to move up with that race behind him fits [00:16:00] on previous form and figures. I feel like the race is going to be run to suit. And with the four Chad Brown runners, I think this one’s going to be a nice price as well.
So I wanted to make sure I got a shout for parlor in there as well. Can you see them at all? Yeah, absolutely. Um, I always pronounce his name wrong, I think, but Michael Huey, uh, actually sent me a Zulu alpha mask. So I’m always rooting for the pink zone. Let’s move East to my home track when Saratoga isn’t running anyway, Belmont, we’ve got a brace of grade ones on offer, starting with the Joe Hirsch turf classic.
Boy that you mentioned before, JK some horses who you’re, you’re getting a little bit tired of their act. Does that apply to you to this cast in the Joe Hirsch turf classic? It did for me, making me want to go with a stranger, but I’m very curious who you landed on them here. Well, I mean, I, I, uh, infamously loved Sadler’s joy, uh, back in the bowling green, when he was disqualified and the reason being, [00:17:00] uh, the three terms at Saratoga, he had run so well at Belmont.
I felt like we were going to get a nice performance from Sadler’s joy up at Saratoga. And we did on that day. Now we’re back downstate where he will not be getting the three turns and I will not. You betting on him? Uh, they don’t make her as one that I think is interesting channel maker. It feels that they’ve figured out what he wants to do.
I mentioned again, talking about those interviews, uh, Manny had said after the race they had been trying to. Get him on the lead and this things weren’t working out, they got them on the lead and he was impressive. And I think they’ll do the same thing here. They’ll try to get them to the front end. And he runs well at Belmont as well.
Um, he likes it there. He’s got some of his best performances and fastest figures that he earned at Belmont. In fact, one of his best races, his best lifetime figure was at Belmont. So. Channel makers one, for sure. Um, and I thought about keeping this a secret, but I’ll share it with you guys this summer at Saratoga, someone came up to me, uh, very close to the chat around operation, not chat, but [00:18:00] someone close and said, there’s a horse named masterpiece.
That’s really good. Wait for him to show up and. Area is showing up in a grade one. I like it. That’s where I was going to go. JK. I figured they’re just tipping their hand by having this one, make this first start in the grade one. I haven’t seen a workout report, but the workouts look good. The form looks solid.
We’re on the same two. I just mentioned them in the other order, I’d put masterpiece on top channel maker. Another, I think you have to use from a pace scenario, point of view. Hopefully they have. Figured this one out, any cut in the ground for the son of English channel would be a big plus doesn’t look like it’s meant to rain tomorrow, but we’ll have to see what happens there.
Definitely appreciate your thoughts on that one. What about moving down the card a little bit here, JK to the event for three-year-olds that goes as race nine, the grade one, Belmont Derby, winning your inaction here as well for the breeders’ cup turf. What do you think is going to win? Yeah, and I think domestic spending, a lot of people are going to lean in that [00:19:00] direction.
I thought domestic spending’s, uh, he’s one of those horses, its own most undefeated. He’s got that one third place effort where you kind of have that extremely wide trip, which I think probably led people to giving him another shot when he showed up in the Saratoga Derby. But I can’t get past. Uh, GFO. I thought GFO ran well that time he was closing, he was running much better than his highly regarded stablemate decorated and Vader.
At that time, I thought that was a very tough race. Colonel Liam is a real. Well, race, horse, domestic, spending a real race, horse, and decorated invader. Another one, it’s a real race horse. And I thought that was doing his thing there. Maybe he’ll like the configuration at Delmont. Maybe that’s what will help him get the job done.
And he’ll be a little bit of a better price and not expect it. I’d expect you to get on a Chad Brown Clark runner who won the Saratoga. Doughtery in domestic spending. So don’t get me wrong. I’m not trying to beat domestic spending, but from a pick standpoint, I’ll go with your phone. I’m going to reach to the same race, but go for the horse that [00:20:00] ran third one that I’ve liked since the debut up here in Saratoga day.
When I noted that I thought this was going to be a horse who was better going 10 for longer and longer gets that slight switch out in distance. Stretch out. I should say in distance today, this is one who finished right with the top two. Last time I was a little disappointed to see nine to two on the morning line.
I was hoping this was a horse that would be six to one or better. We keep getting a little bit more of a price, but I just think he’s got the right kind of grinding style. Not much to separate him from the top two that you mentioned, and hopefully a chance to get up there with, uh, with a decent price on offer.
We’ll have to see what happens with the betting market, of course, but no word, his horse was always interested in me and I wanted to see if we could get him potentially in the mix here. One of the horses I did want to ask you about before we moved on just the trainer, we’ve talked about so much on the podcast over the years.
How about a journey to freedom for Mike maker? What do you make of this horse [00:21:00] appearing in this spot? And is this one who could potentially be a contender, at least in the underneath spots verticals? So you’re telling me that Mike maker who spent his entire summer at Saratoga was paying attention to Del Mar claimed a horse for 80,000.
And is now trying to horse a mile and a quarter for the first time on the turf. And in grade one, I think, you know, the answer to that question, you have claimed that you could put you and me in a horse suit and let Mike make or train us and you would consider betting on us. So I’m going to, I’m going to take that one as an affirmative look.
I think he’s, he’s up against it from a class standpoint, but if you’re looking for a horse to get involved in the exotics or to outrun their odds, A journey to freedom is one that I would definitely look at. Get to our best bets in a minute. We’re going to do our best bets, maybe a little bit differently.
As long as this doesn’t throw you off too much were eligible for doing this amazing promo offer. We talked about before the friends of the, in the money podcast can use the code [00:22:00] ITM 200, even if you’re already a twin spires customer and get a risk-free wind that. Up to $200 twin spires app or twin spires.com offers page.
The code is ITM 200. You can also get there through our website in the money podcast.com/twins fires. What horse are you going to use? Your $200 wind bet on this weekend? JK, are you inclined to go towards the shorter end of the OD spectrum and make it, uh, make the money. Get into your account that way, or are you willing to take a shot, take a shot.
One of the longer prices that we’ve talked about on the show, how will you be playing a gimme calibrate? I am really looking forward to seeing calibrate run the breeders fraternity. Um, I don’t think golden pal is connected to that race. That would be a fun, little double to do, but he’s earlier in the car looking forward to seeing golden pal that turf sprint, or at least solid Saratoga.
That was extremely impressive. But calibrate for me, that’s where my $200 wouldn’t bet would go. [00:23:00] I’m going to go with newspaper of record this time. I love your case about why the form can be reversed. I think it, I think she’s going to be written in the aggressive manner. As you pointed out that we’ve talked about her wanting and needing all along.
It’s a great point about the jockey musical chairs due to circumstances going on in the world. Newspaper of record for me, hopefully we’re going to take our ITM 200. When bets tournament to a bunch more money and keep things rolling throughout the day and throughout the weekend on our roads. Well, on my twin spires.com account, anyway, I forgot you’re a Texas resident.
You don’t have one, but that aside JK, I want to thank you for, uh, for all your time today. Any closing thoughts for this episode of let loose? I’m looking forward to it. Like you mentioned sixth grade, one races, a lot of them pointing to, if not all of them pointing to the breeders’ cup, it’s right around the corner.
Looking forward to the breeders cup. We’ve got Katelyn back, Belmont’s running Santa Anita, a lot of stuff going on, looking forward to a fun weekend. [00:24:00] Good stuff. We’ll close it out by thanking you JK. I want to thank our friends at twin spires, inspires.com. The twin spires app, our friends at betting on content to special shout out to them for all the great help they do in putting these shows together.
Most of all, though, I want to thank all of you, the listeners and viewers, especially those of you who get involved with this ITM. 200 welcome back offer. Whatever you want to call it, going to be a great. Thing to have a lot of fun promoting this weekend. The show’s been a production of in the money, media and betting on content over it in the money media, our business managers through Cody, our chief creative officer is Jonathan kitchen. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Italian. May you win all your photos.