Let Loose–Episode 8–Stakes Action from BEL and KEE

Photo: NYRA/Chelsea Durand

PTF and JK are here with a look ahead to stakes action at Keeneland, including the G1 QE2, as well as dives into four Breeders’ Cup Win-and-You’re-In races from Belmont Park

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***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***

Hello, and welcome to let loose episode eight. I’m your host, Peter Thomas for Nitel. Actually, I realized. This is the first time for one of the let loose shows that we’ve been doing this with me in the world, famous Brooklyn bunker, which you can see behind me littered with racing memorabilia. And of course, a whole lot of classic vinyl.

And I’m bringing in the co-host of the show, a man, uh, a modern classic, if you will, in his world, famous set up, back over there on the planet, Texas. He’s the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen. What’s up. My man. What’s going on it’s, uh, it’s football season. And, uh, I could care less than about that Cowboys and the Texans, but my Longhorns are letting us down.

So, uh, usually there’s a big sense of pride that I’m here from Austin, but. A little bit embarrassed that I’m sorry to hear that. Well, it could have been worse. I know you’d already conceded defeat and week one, when you pulled that one out of the fire, perhaps your team will be able to pull the season [00:01:00] out of the fire as well, but we’re not here to talk about college football JK.

We’re here to talk about horse racing. This is really the last weekend of super serious. Breeders’ cup prep, races. We’ve got a bunch of them to talk about. We’re going to get to that in a minute. First. I want to tell you about this new twin spires offer code promotion. We’ve got another good one this week.

Twin spires players can opt in for the pick for wind insurance. Belmont park offered this weekend and Monday for holiday racing. You can head to the twin spires offers page for all the details. But basically what we have going here is on the late pick four, you will be refunded for 25% of your losing bets up to $50.

That’s a giant de facto rebate and great encouragement to get involved in a pool that I know a lot of the players listening to let loose and watching let loose, are going to enjoy. So make sure to check that out. Opt in over the twin [00:02:00] spires offers page, check it out through the app or over@twinspires.com.

J K we’ll start this show the way we’ve started all these let loose shows. Generally speaking, which of the races this weekend are you most looking forward to? Yeah, I’m really looking forward to the two year old races at Belmont. I think those are going to be the two grade ones in the present and the champagne, obviously, uh, the winners of these races will likely go on to be favored or at least single digit choices in the Breeder’s cup, juvenile and juvenile Philly.

So. I think it’s always exciting to see these races. And at one turn mile, I think is it’s kinda one of the tests that, that, that these horses have to come across as they mature into three-year-olds. And so really looking forward to seeing, uh, Jackie’s warrior and, you know, reinvestment risk kind of hook back up.

So those are the races I’m looking forward to the most. That’s a perfect segue JK into our first topic today in asthma, soon we trust we saw the impressive squadron of two-year-olds that Steve, to set out this summer, especially around [00:03:00] Saratoga when it comes to this year, champagne, uh, Jackie’s warrior has a little bit more of a body of work.

Is it as simple as singling Jackie’s warrior in the champagne? No, I don’t think it’s that simple. I mean, obviously Jackie’s warrior is likely the most likely winner Jackie’s warrior is a tactical type that can put himself into position where it doesn’t really matter what happens with the others. They can go fast, they can go slow.

And I think the Jackie’s warrior is the type of horse that can take advantage of. Any of those pay scenarios, but there is that extra for along that comes into the picture. So that obviously is something that could eventually become a problem for Jackie’s warrior. I don’t predict that it will just buy Jackie Warrior’s running style, but I do think it’s at least something to take into consideration.

And then there’s the opportunity which we see in these two year old races. And even sometimes early in the three-year-old year is those distances start to get a bit, a little bit longer. And sometimes these horses start to show their true colors and there’s a [00:04:00] possibility, no one would be shocked if we wake up Sunday morning or at least, uh, after this race on Saturday that the risk happened to appreciate the added distance and what we thought he was.

He showed up and Jackie’s warrior hit a wall around the, uh, around the April. It’s completely possible. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but it’s always a, a, it’s always a consideration. In terms of your horizontal play in this race, what percentage do you see running through Jackie’s warrior, as opposed to going with your backup re-investment risk?

I’d say about 70%, 70%. Jackie’s warrior and 3% through reinvestment risk. I mean, I liked reinvestment risk. Last time I thought potentially that the seven furlongs is going to be a pumper Jackie’s warrior Jackie’s warrior is going to be a short price in here. Reinvestment risk is going to kind of get thrown out with the bath water, I think based on the last race and Jackie’s warrior winning.

So impressively, but I still think there’s a world in which reinvestment risk could. Turn out to be a really good horse and, and, um, I’m [00:05:00] still gonna lean on Jackie’s warrior. That’ll still be my pick just because I’m a huge fan of speed and speed kills and a lot of these situations. And I feel like Jackie’s warrior will be able to do that.

Uh, but I would not be shocked if reinvestment risk got the job done and I’ll have reinvestment risk for a little bit of penny for a couple of pennies. Let’s move on to the other grade one for two-year-olds you mentioned up top JK, the first set. Do you think the Saratoga form is going to hold up here for Cantata and vacate?

Could you see an upset with the likes of a CILO or a Bentley Combs? I did notice that still is damn sitting at the bar. Just had a winner last week at Kaitlin. How are things going to play out in the grade one for Zach? Yeah. And I think this is very similar to the champagne where the focus is going to be between two horses, the Quist, and, uh, Contorta and look, it’s probably a little bit unfair cause Cantata has really nothing to do with what happened with calibrate last week, but it was just a reminder that, uh, those impressive maiden performances don’t always necessarily translate into a quality stakes performance can [00:06:00] continue to do that.

Sure. Uh, will she do it very likely, but I think she’s going to take enough money in here that V. Based on what I saw last time. It is one that I think I’d want to take into consideration here. And the rail, not the easiest situation. Cantata definitely has a better draw, but man, Chris was impressive last time and I can’t get my eyes away from that one.

Tactical enough. Then I’ve also noticed watching Belmont a lot, this meet, uh, the rails, not exactly been where you want it to be, but in these smaller, tight fields, It’s very easy for horses to avoid getting down there. They can stay in the two or the three paths. So you don’t have to necessarily worry about a rail draw leading to, uh, uh, horses, uh, you know, trouble being stuck down towards the inside.

It’s a great point about the way track bias works relative to field side. Give me a quick thought about Cilla. Coming off this blowout win at Delaware park. JK. Is this one a possible option? Yeah, look I’ve last month. I think a couple of times [00:07:00] I’ve I’ve said that if a horse wins I’ll retire, if the horse wins, I’ll get off the show.

So I I’ve wanted to do something ridiculous like that, but I know that I’ll put her right in the winner circle. I don’t see it. She’s just not fast enough on paper. I, I get that. She got that seven Furlong that seven LinkedIn, a win down at Delaware, but. These are real race horses that are running real time.

She’s going to have to improve on some scales, 30 points to beat some of the, maybe even 40. I don’t see that happening. Not an easy feat that’s for sure. Let’s move on to our third topic, Jacob, we’re going to be talking about the historic flower bowl. We’ve got grade one action here. Three of the runners in this race coming out of the Glens falls in civil union, my sister Nat and bow bell, Chad Brown, you will not be surprised at all to hear has won six of the last 10 runnings of this race.

JK, what do you think’s going to happen in this year’s flower bowl? Well, it’s interesting. I think that a lot of these horses are running [00:08:00] for $250,000, but it feels like my sister Nat is running for a lot more. Uh, if she can get that grade. One, when being a half to sister, Charlie, and as well as a is what we saw last weekend.

And the arc was solstice. This is a horse. That’s obviously getting this great one means a whole lot to her and to Peter Brant and our value here. I just think she’s a cut below. I ended up going with civil union is a horse that in these long distance turf races, I’m looking for horses that Quicken quick in a word that I, I like to say I got from the Mattise brothers, Duke and Paul Matisse, where it says identifying.

How a horse can quick it within a race, not necessarily how fast they run at the end of the race or how fast they run the entire race, which is a thing that I think a lot of people look for in turf racing, but how quickly they get to that top line speed and trying to find those internal moves. And I felt like civil union had the fastest Quicken in this race.

And despite what might be a fast paced, [00:09:00] slow pace, whatever happens, I feel like still will union will be able to overcome it with that Quicken. I went with civil union in here. She’s versatile and has certainly done nothing wrong in the TC brothers. You mentioned professional betters who are also a horse player, activists and involved in owning and breeding.

Always nice to give shout outs to them. What about Lawson? Yarai in here? JK. This was my pick. This is one who had trouble going longer. Earlier in the career when failing to settle early in races looks like a different beast to me. Now, this is the one I went with figuring fits on form and figure should get a good trip.

If she can just handle the distance. I think she can. Yeah. I mean, the distance is the biggest question. Obviously. Uh, she, she tried the nine and a half and that didn’t really go well, but she ran third. She was 11 to one that day 12 to one. So there’s obviously, it’s not like she was meant to win and, and the distance hit her in the face.

I just feel like there’s a lot of horses in here that can handle the distance. And I’d rather look to one who can and has proven to handle it rather than [00:10:00] one that you’re hoping or thinking. Might I wouldn’t be shocked this horse won, but I think the fact that you, when you keep a horse around eight. Is there a mile and a 16th of that mile.

I think that you’re, you’re kind of showing your hand. That’s what you think the best distance is. And that’s a great one. And if you can get a grade one win for a Philly, um, it’s always, or a mayor, it’s always very important. So I think sometimes you’ll see horses taking shots in situations like this. My gamble is that Lawson yard is taking a shot in here to see if the mile and a quarter is going to work.

But I’m going to go with a couple of others that I think can handle the mile and a quarter. Really looking forward to this one, let’s move on to race. Number four, you talk about the importance of grade one wins for Phillies and mayors. It can mean something on the male side too. And the horse we’ve spent a lot of time talking about on the podcast, still seeking his first grade one.

He’ll probably never have a better chance to get it. I’m talking of course, about Tacitus. Uh, I was able to see your picks before we went on air. J K seems like you may be getting a little bit sick of [00:11:00] tacit as his act, but I’m ready for him to step up and get the business done here. Give us your analysis of this year’s jockey club.

Yeah. When it comes to tasks and it’s not, I’m not a Tacitus, a hater, like some people are. I think he’s a very talented horse who has. Either gotten unlucky or creates unlucky situations for himself. Now, what we saw in the suburban was, uh, neither of those things happening. He, he didn’t get in his own way and he wasn’t unlucky in the race and he got the job done, but I couldn’t help, but realize global campaign did something to task this that I think another horse in this race will do, which is go out on the front end.

And be a good horse in task. This needs to run them down. And I just don’t trust that task. This is going to be able to do that in this situation. And I feel like happy saber is the type of horse that is a progressive type that’s going to continue to improve. Um, I like the fact that, uh, Todd Pletcher trains this one, we’ve talked about it all summer, those mile and an eighth races at [00:12:00] Saratoga and talking about Todd’s prowess is creating stallions long distance on the dirt is Todd’s game.

When he stretches one. Out, they can usually handle it. That’s why he’s got so many stylings. You make stallions in this country by making a long distance dirt horses. And that’s what I think happy saver is. I liked that they passed on, on the Preakness for an opportunity to run in this mile and a quarter grade one, which makes me think that he can handle the distance he’s drawn towards the inside should be aggressive, small field.

I predict he’ll be on the lead. Task, this will be coming at them, but I think happy, stable. Well, hold on. Would it guys, you JK to learn, you talk about the, the Pletcher, um, prowess and these long distance turf races that he doesn’t have a jockey club, gold cup on his resume. I have that in my notes here and I find it almost unbelievable.

Anyone last year. W what was the horse last year? Vino rasa, of course. Yeah. No, cause he got taken down. He can cross the wire first. So he does have a [00:13:00] cross the wire first in the jockey club, gold cup. The notes are technically right, but you’re Johnny on the spot with that, uh, that analysis. So I assume that doesn’t bother you one bit.

Not at all. J K when it comes to playing these races at Belmont on Saturday, is there a particular spot you’re looking to get stuck in? Well, I’m looking forward to the early pick five. That’s going to wrap up with those two grade ones and raise four and raise five with Jackie’s warrior. Uh, as well as V quest.

I think there’s some things you can do there with maybe some aggressive, double singling, those two or whichever ones you happen to. Like, I don’t think you need to spread in those races. And then I’m also looking forward to, uh, the, the pick six, a mandatory payout in the empire six. So I’ll be looking forward to trying to get, uh, pick up some equity by beating tasks that this with happy saver, I’ll obviously have tasks for this.

In there as well, but I’ll try to pick up some equity, uh, by leaning on happy saver. I love the idea of taking advantage of this twin spires promotion, the wind Sharon’s 25% of the bet back up to $50 in the late pick four, which [00:14:00] starts off with a race. I really liked the one we talked about before the flower bowl.

I’m going to kick off with the, both of our horses, Lawson DRA. And civil union in there. I may use my sister Nat for some backups just because she was close with civil union. Last time against the flow. I like both of our horses and the jockey club, gold cup, Tacitus, and happy saver. And then just very quickly in the sands point, I like miss J McKay and Tama here in that spot.

And I feel like you can maybe get out of the last race using three or four. The likes of 11 violent. I am seven, the promise road, 10 Amity Island. And the favorite number two, Harold angel. I might go ahead and tackle that pick for taking advantage of this promo. And that’s going to be my main play at Belmont.

Of course, we’ll be messing around all over the card. Folks, interested in my thoughts on the whole thing. Can go over to the expert, picks on twin spires. You love my thoughts for the whole Belmont card, and you can go out to California and get Jay thoughts on those races as well. Let’s move out to [00:15:00] Keeneland on Saturday JK.

There’s some really good stuff going on in there. Our first topic is going to be a race. I look forward to every year with the three-year-olds going a mile and an eighth on the turf in the Q E two challenge cup agreed one. We’ve got rematches happening here from the Belmont Oaks and from. The dueling ground Oaks, which of those races JK do you think is more likely to be the key prep for this year’s QE two.

Oh, the Belmont Oaks for sure. I was very, very impressed with magic attitude. I thought she did it well. She’d get it closing into a slow pace and see anything that I do. You know, that’s one of my favorite angles. She had the trouble in that race and she was so impressive. And what I love about a horse second time with a rider.

Is that now Javier knows what he has underneath him. It’s always a question what’s going to happen when I ask, where am I at? And what kind of kick am I going to get? When I asked, can I get out of this trouble? Can I not? Now he knows what he was sitting on. You’ll ride her more confidently this time. [00:16:00] Be able to make, uh, take some risks and understand when to pull the trigger.

When not to pull the trigger, I’m really looking forward to seeing her run again. She is back pretty quick. Uh, but you see that often in Europe, mostly these horses are trained. They can come back quick and really chilly ran for about three eights of a mile. She’s a very small Philly. I remember noticing that watching her run.

So I’m not worried about her losing a bunch of weight, not running her performance. She’s already pretty tiny. So I don’t think there’s going to be any problem with her in that regard. The other one that I’ll mention, just because she possesses something that we see so often in turf races, it’s these tactical turf types sweet Melania could be out on the front end.

She likes it at keen Linn, uh, with that kind of unique sand based surface. And I think sweet Leilani is one that could potentially take advantage of the pace scenario in here and could wow us with a performance. But for me, magic attitude looks too tough. I was hoping Antoinette would keep sweet Milan.

Yeah. Honest, but who knows? Maybe after trying the front running tactics last night, I’ll [00:17:00] be wrong and you’ll be right. And sweet. Melania will be out there if they go too fast. And if the price is right, I’m pretty intrigued by number seven Michellene in this spot. JK, I thought just thought looking at the figures and internal fractions that, that dueling ground Oaks, that $500,000 race back at Kentucky downs could prove to be the key form line.

I definitely want some Michellene and Harvey’s little goals somewhere. Are you willing to completely stand against those writers? And I gotta be honest. A lot of times when a figure comes up fast and Kentucky downs, I just don’t. Quite trusted. Now they’ve had some timing issues in the past. And so it’s always, always taken with a grain of salt.

And plus that course is so different, you know, you’re up, you’re down, you’re left. You’re right. And I think sometimes it can be a little misleading. So sometimes I try to, to, to mentally cross out the speed figure and look at what they’ve done elsewhere and, and see how that translates. And look, I just think magic attitude is too good, uh, for these types.

And if anyone’s going to take advantage of the pace scenario, I’m fairly confident that it would be sweet [00:18:00] Melania. Although Antoinette, like you’ve mentioned has been forward and her last two races she’s been forward in crawls. If you look at sweet Malani as abilities based as what she did as a two year old, and at some points of her three-year-old year, she actually has some real legit speed, uh, to, to get to the front end.

If that’s where, uh, where they decide to go with her. Let’s talk about the California shippers in here. JK, normally you and I are always, uh, espousing the virtues of turf form shipping West and can be pretty cynical when it comes to Western turf form shipping East. But then when you go down and you look at just the morning lines here on the likes of California kook at 12 to one and red Lark at 10 to one, I think it’s at least worth asking the question.

Are we possibly underrating these runners? Do the California shippers have a chance? Um, no, they, they can beat me. I always try to beat these California horses and obviously it’s jumped up and bit me a few times, but it’s just, I, I just feel like it’s, uh, [00:19:00] you know, the way that these turf races are run on the East coast, uh, the condition of the course, I just feel like all of those things kind of put California horses up against it.

So, uh, you know, in the. Situations, I’ve never leaning on. And especially in the breeders cup, I know we’re not this isn’t a breeders cup race, but as we get closer to the breeders’ cup, I think it’s a good example that even all the races that are run in California, California turf horses, don’t win very often.

And I think that there’s an indicator there that the California turf horses just happened to be a cut below, no offense to them, the California dirt horses typically dust up the East coast dirt horses. So it’s, uh, it depends on where you’re from, whether it’s the green stuff or the Brown stuff. There you go quick thought before we leave Keene Lynn J K on the race that goes as number eight, the grade two Fiat stakes.

I had a foot boring opinion in here, which is that I like Mr. Freeze a whole lot to potentially be the controlling speed and to get the job done. Do you have an opinion on this one? Yeah, kind of like title ready, ran [00:20:00] into by my standards last time, uh, was closing in to that slow pace, uh, was kind of stuck down towards the inside.

I think the title ready is interesting. He’s he’s won two times at Keeneland. Uh, he’s been to Keelan three times. He’s won twice was second once. So it just feels like the type of horse that could be picking up the pieces. It’s a Dallas Stewart, it’s a big race. It’s Cory land, or, you know, he’s gonna say Brown, make one run.

And I think that he’s a, the one that I’m interested in. That’s the other one who came up over on the player’s podcast, where we did the keen Lynn late pick four. So definitely respect for that one as well. We’re going to get to our best bets in one second here, JK, but I just want to remind folks one more time to opt into this pick for wind insurance at Belmont park offered this weekend, uh, and, and Monday.

So it is it’s actually Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, you can get. 25% of your pick for back, refund it to you up to $50. Fantastic opportunity. Head to the twin spires offers page for all the details and [00:21:00] more. There’s also some bet back action at Santa Anita. This weekend, check out JKS expert picks on the twin spires site or the twin spires app for Santa Anita and take advantage of all the offers over there at the twin spires offers page.

Now it’s time for the rubber to meet the road. My friend. Give me your, uh, give me your best bet on the weekend. It can be at Keeneland, but if you have something else you want to bust out there, we can go that direction as well. Yeah. And I think that of all the pics we’ve talked about the most value, I think kind of lands on title already, but one that I’m really excited about making as the pick five early at Belmont singling Jackie’s warrior is that kind of pressed a singling, the questions kind of that press a and then having some saviors on reinvestment risk.

And Contano, I think that if you could find one more single earlier in that sequence, or one more spot where you can get skinny early in that sequence. You have an opportunity to really kind of double punch that pick five, maybe hit it for $3, $4, $5, $10, $50, depending on what your bank roll is. So that’s [00:22:00] a, that’s a sequence and I’m looking forward to getting involved with.

I’m going to be, uh, I’m going to be stubborn and stick to my guns. I’m going to see if I can be right. You make a compelling case for why to maybe take that Kentucky downs form with a grain of salt, but I’m going to try to get through this Q E two cup in late picks at Keeneland on Saturday using Harvey’s little Goyle and Michaline.

I probably will. In all fairness, have a backup with magic attitude who I also was very impressed by last time. But, but that, that’s my main thought there. And I agree with the adding title ready. To the mix in race. Number eight, along with Mr. Freeze, um, there are doubles connecting those two races. So maybe that’s a pool.

I’m going to focus on with those two steaks at Keeneland on-site Saturday. And that’s about all the time we have JK want to thank you for your time today. I want to thank our friends over at twin spires and betting on content. We will be back in short order. Previewing the breeders cup and talking all about everything going on [00:23:00] in the world of racist, bringing you exciting promotional offers as well until the next time may you with all your photos.

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