We have five Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races – formerly known as Win & You’re In races – at Longchamp this Sunday, with Breeders’ Cup clues likely to be in abundance. In this piece, I’ll be taking a look at the prospects of the horses running this weekend and their suitability for the test that Keeneland will provide in a months time.
The good news is that the ground at Longchamp looks likely to be decent, ensuring these contests should be relevant for form purposes, although that may mean less scope for interesting wagering opportunities.
Prix Marcel Boussac – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Juvenile Fillies Turf
The Prix Marcel Boussac does not have a particularly good record of producing JFT winners, with only Flotilla using the race as a springboard to success since 2008. She was fourth in a heavy-ground Boussac in 2012 before improving for a faster surface to win at Santa Anita.
Green Empress heads the market and looks a suitable type to run at Keeneland given her ownership and trainer. She was left trailing in the wake of the mighty Sun Goddess (odds-on for both the Juvenile Fillies and the Juvenile Fillies Turf at the time of writing) last time out in the Moyglare Sutd Stakes, but was only 0.75 lengths behind that rival in June which is as close as anything has got to her in her last five starts. Green Empress was a bit keen and far back off a slow pace last time out, but ran on really well into second and should relish a better pace here and at the Breeders’ Cup.
Data – trained by Christopher Head, whose family have a long history of Breeders’ Cup success – looks the best of the home team on form so far. She was placed on good-to-firm ground last time, but ran better than the bare form there as she could never really get rolling having gone for a daring inside run, seeming reluctant to challenge through a tight gap and finishing with a bit of running left. She should do better with a clear run here but I’m not sure she’s ideally suited to the hustle and bustle of a JFT.
This looks a weak renewal of the Boussac, ultimately, with Ibelieveicanfly third in. She was well held at Listed level last time out and is already pretty exposed after six starts, while her form is miles behind stablemate Sun Goddess.
Miss Miniver finished fourth in a Group 2 at Newmarket last time out and looks to be improving. She should enjoy this extra furlong and can hit the board here, but I don’t see her as a Group 1 winner in waiting.
Perhaps more interesting is Spirit Tango. This stoutly-bred sort looked classy on her most recent outing having been given a break over the summer and that form was nicely boosted last weekend. I can see her taking another big step forward with that run under her belt and she’s well drawn in stall 2.
Jean-Luc Lagardere – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Juvenile Turf
The Jean-Luc Lagardere has a good record of producing Juvenile Turf winners in recent years, with the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair of Henri Matisse (2024) and Unquestionable (2023) both going on to score at the Breeders’ Cup despite not winning the Lagardere itself.
O’Brien has the third favourite in this contest in the shape of Man’s Best Friend, who looks a likely type both on Sunday and at Keeneland. He was a good winner of a Group 2 two back and probably found the soft ground against him in a hot renewal of the Group 1 Prix Morny last time out. He should improve for this seventh furlong given he has Galileo on the distaff side and the mile of the Juvenile Turf shouldn’t be an issue either. An interesting contender if he runs well here, although O’Brien already has a strong hand with the likes of Haffner.
It could well be the junior O’Brien who takes home this prize with Folsom Blues, who looks sure to go off favourite here for Joseph having already qualified for the Juvenile Turf due to his win in the National Stakes last time. I think he was a little bit flattered by the 6 length winning margin there, but it’s still hard to argue he isn’t a very talented horse with his 1.25 length defeat behind Sun Goddess also looking extremely good form. This strong-travelling sort is bred to stay a mile and won over a testing seven furlongs in June, and I can see him swinging around Keeneland before putting his acceleration to good use down the lane – a serious chance both here and at the BC, particularly as his owners have had horses trained full-time in the US before.
The danger to the pair looks likely to be Avec Toi, who looked the best juvenile colt in France earlier in the year, although that reputation took a little knock despite victory last time out. This Coolmore-owned colt is trained by Christopher Head and has an American pedigree, so the Breeders’ Cup looks like a good fit and he has every chance here if bouncing back to his earlier form – his lesser run last time was on the firmest ground he’d encountered, which is a possible knock for Keeneland.
Avec Toi scrambled home at odds of 1/5 last time and the horse he beat there, Imperial Strike, returns for another go. There is nothing between them on that form – they were separated by a short-head and ran the same final 2 furlong time – and Imperial Strike will be several times the price. He looks the type to improve again, handles firm ground, and has Smart Strike as his damsire so should be even more effective over a mile, so is definitely one to consider at Keeneland if he runs a big race here.
Florida Bay is a stablemate of Man’s Best Friend and beat Folsom Blues three back. He’s not had things drop entirely right since and may do better given a more patient ride – he looks ready for a fast ground mile.
Amusingly is an interesting runner as a filly taking on the boys. She’s drawn quite wide but looked very unlucky to lose her unbeaten record last time out in the Prix d’Aumale when finding trouble in running. The European fillies look a cut above the colts this year and this well-bred sort may well find the Juvenile Turf easier than taking on Sun Goddess in the fillies equivalent.
Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Turf Sprint
It’s no secret that the European sprinters aren’t very good and, although this race has produced Turf Sprint winners in the past, I’d be surprised if any of these are good enough to beat Bacio in his back yard. Rumstar and Time For Sandals have already tried and couldn’t get the job done – the latter may well have won with a clear run but Bacio had gone hard into the wind on soft ground, and she’s bombed since – so I don’t see them doing so at Keeneland.
The most interesting runner in the field is Naana’s Shadow who looks set to go off favourite. She is very quick, but not Bacio quick, and was beaten in a handicap two starts ago off just 102. I imagine her small yard will find a tilt at the Breeders’ Cup irresistible if she wins here, and she does at least have the speed to provide Bacio with some unwelcome pace pressure.
Mission Central has already qualified for the Turf Sprint but hasn’t been in the same form recently – watch for more signs of life here.
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Turf
A cracking renewal of Europe’s premier race, which will be open to geldings from next year.
Last year’s winner Daryz comes here off a fine season and should go very close again here. He’s landed a good draw and is the one to beat on form and ratings, but I don’t see him running in the Turf if he wins here.
Maltese Cross has the right profile for the race as an improving 3-year-old with a course and distance win. He needs to improve again to win here but if he does I imagine he’d skip the Turf and be put away from next year.
Minnie Hauk was a disappointing favourite in the Turf last season and hasn’t been in the same form this time around. I expect she’ll have another tilt at the Breeders’ Cup if she shows a bit more spark here.
Kalpana didn’t quite fire in this last year but has had a wonderful season, the highlight of which was beating Calandagan in the King George. She has a great profile for this race – a 5-year-old mare won this in 2022 – and has got a better draw this year, while she’s right there on form and ratings. She’s already booked a place in the F&M Turf and the Turf with high profile wins this season and I’d imagine she’d be a warm order for either race should she run to form here.
Diamond Necklace is also already in the F&M Turf. She suffered her first defeat last time out and is better than that, but I’m not sure she wants to go up in trip on breeding and running style. Look for her shaping well for a long way here, as I think the demands of the F&M Turf will really suit her.
Thundering On has a lovely profile for this race and looked like she might be a superstar when romping him in the Epsom Oaks. She was disappointing next time but looked to be back to near her best when landing a Group 2 at the Curragh last time out. She’s been handed a good draw and would have no problem dropping back in trip for the F&M Turf if she doesn’t get home her. She will be really well suited to the demands of American racing.
Varandir has improved steadily as the season has gone on. He needs another jump forward from his Prix Niel win and this slow-maturing type is probably one they’ll mind for next season whatever he does here.
Benvenuto Cellini finished behind Varandir last time out when odds-on. He has had an in and out profile this season but is very capable on his day, as he showed when winning the Irish Derby three back. His best form would give him a very strong chance in an average Turf – particularly if some of the big European names don’t run – and this son of Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Newspaperofrecord should take to American racing with aplomb.
Prix de l’Opera – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Filly & Mare Turf
A decent little contest which sees Aventure head the market. This galloping mare needs a stamina test and, ideally, some soft ground, so I’d imagine that Keeneland may not be on connections’ minds whatever she does here.
Precise looked a superstar earlier in the year but didn’t run as well last time and has had a long season. I’m nut sure she wants to move up in distance but this will tell us more and she’d clearly have some of the best form if she returns to her best here and rocks up in an F&M Turf.
Pink Panthera has looked unlucky not to land a Group 1 this season and comes into this with very solid claims. She loves firm ground and looks tailor made for the test of the F&M Turf.
So, too, does Miss Scott, who interests me tomorrow and with the BC in mind. She’s improving rapidly and looked like she could make her mark at this level when romping away with a Group 3 last time out. She handles decent ground and connections have had a lot of success at the Breeders’ Cup in the past – look for her to take her form to another level again here.
Prix de la Foret – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Mile
Hard to see many of these running at Keeneland or being good enough.
Samangan has done his running over sprint distances and looks a doubtful stayer at a mile. He’s got the form to win here but is nothing special. His owner looks to have a more suitable mile type in Erdenali.
Connections of Thesecretadversary have stated he will be kept to 6 and 7 furlongs going forward and he should enjoy dropping back from a mile here.
True Love looked special when winning the Guineas but her form has tailed off since and she’s got a bit to prove now, as does Nighttime.
