Maiden Race of the Day: Churchill Downs Race 5, Wednesday, Nov. 11

Twelve 2-year-olds go 1 1/16 miles on the Churchill Downs turf in Race 5 on Wednesday, a $120,000 maiden special weight with a Beyer par of 68. None of the 12 in the main field has run that fast yet. The top figure is a 65, and the two shortest prices on the morning line have best Beyers of 63 and 53. There’s a $675,000 Uncle Mo, a $625,000 American Pharoah, a $5,000 OBS buy and four first-time starters, including the one with the best works in the race.

Churchill Downs Race 5 | Wed., Nov. 11 | Post time 2:57 p.m. ET | 1 1/16 miles, turf | $120,000 maiden special weight, 2-year-olds

The Field at a Glance

A New York-bred gelding. His Oct. 18 debut at Keeneland was moved off the turf to 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He broke slowly, made a bid into the stretch, then had to take up at the quarter pole when Sagamore ducked out, and faded to 6th with a 50. Turf is new, and the family doesn’t help: his dam made one start, on dirt, and her runners are 0-for-13 in turf routes. The best of them, Snow King, won four times on dirt and went 0-for-11 on turf. Twirling Candy’s runners win 16% in turf routes, against an 11% average for all sires. George Arnold’s maidens making their second start win 20% (29-for-146) over five years.

Robbins raced his dam, Love On Tides, a $32,000 Keeneland January buy who won seven of 40 starts, six of them on turf, and earned $258,798 with an 81 Beyer. Her only other runner made one start. Maxfield is a dirt sire: his runners win 20% in dirt routes but 10% in turf routes. He has worked 12 times at Keeneland since mid-August, mostly in the middle of the tab; his best recent move was a half in :47 (3rd of 10) on Nov. 5. Matt Sims hasn’t debuted a horse in a turf route in five years, and his first-time starters are 2-for-25.

His dam won once in seven starts, on turf, but none of her other foals has won, and the best has run a 47. Epicenter’s runners are 2-for-32 in turf routes. He was an also-eligible who didn’t get in on Oct. 25, and has a bullet three furlongs in :36 2/5 (1st of 24) on Nov. 6. Jeremiah O’Dwyer’s first-time starters win 8% (5-for-66).

He debuted at this exact trip on Sept. 17 at 5/2 and was rank early behind a slow pace (:49.02 half), loomed on the second turn and flattened out to finish 5th with a 53. Blinkers go on. His dam never won, but half-sister Leslie’s Humor won four times and earned $257,990 with a 91 Beyer, all in turf sprints. The family is 0-for-3 in turf routes. American Pharoah’s runners win 14% in turf routes.

Cherie DeVaux has the strongest pattern in the race. Over five years, her maidens making their second start in a turf route after a turf-route debut have won 22% (12-for-55) overall, and that improves to 29% (5-for-17) when they’re bet under 4-1. The catch: she’s 4-for-43 (9%) since Oct. 1.

His dam, Candy Flower, won five of 18, earned $305,067 and ran a 96 Beyer, all on turf, and was 2nd in the Grade 3 Long Island at 1 1/2 miles. He’s her first starter, and she sold at the Keeneland November sale this month for $65,000 to Dondar Equine. Maxfield’s runners win 10% in turf routes.

He was 9th at 13/1 on debut at a mile on Sept. 24, brushed at the start and saving ground with no rally, for a 44. That number needs to jump, but the race is working out (see below). As mentioned, George Arnold’s maidens making their second start win 20%.

He broke slowly and was last early in the Oct. 18 race, passing tired horses to finish 7th with a 36. Blinkers come off. His dam never raced, and her runners have never won on turf. Michel Douaihy is 0-for-13 since Oct. 1.

His dam, Naomi Broadway, was a turf mare: two wins and a 79 Beyer from 22 starts, 3rd in a Grade 2 in Brazil, and she ran in the Grade 3 Dowager at Keeneland. Knicks Go’s runners win 10% in turf routes. He had a sharp bullet three furlongs in :35 at Keeneland in September, but his recent Churchill works have been middle of the pack. The pattern is the problem: over five years, Kenny McPeek’s first-time starters in turf routes are 4-for-84 (5%), and 0-for-53 at 10-1 or higher. He’s 15/1.

He was 4th at 10/1 on debut at a mile on Oct. 9 at Keeneland. He shied into the first turn, saved ground and stayed on his left lead in the stretch, so there’s room to improve. But the form isn’t holding up: the top three have all run worse next out, the winner 11th in a stakes.

Uncle Mo’s runners win 15% in turf routes, but this dam’s foals haven’t hit the board. One Way Passage made one start for Shug McGaughey and cost $280,000 at Keeneland November in 2020. Three of her foals have raced, Mo Way included, and they’re 0-for-10 without a single 2nd or 3rd. Pemaquid (Curlin, 72 Beyer) made four turf starts for Shug, and Cederberg (Munnings, 70) is 0-for-5 and has dropped into $55,000 maiden claimers.

Over five years, Brendan Walsh’s second-time turf routers after a turf-route debut win 12% (9-for-75) overall, and that improves to 21% (7-for-33) when they’re bet under 4-1.

He has the best work tab in the race: bullets at five furlongs in :59 3/5 (1st of 30) on Oct. 31 and a half in :47 3/5 (1st of 100) on Oct. 3, both on the Turfway synthetic. Oscar Performance’s runners win 15% in turf routes.

His dam, House of Dixie, won on synthetic for Chad Brown. Four of her five foals are winners, three of them on turf, led by Safe Travels (three wins, 74 Beyer). But they start slowly: the family is 0-for-4 first time out. Chris Block debuted two of them: Nitschke was 11th at 6/1 in a turf mile and Fun On the Bayou 8th at 24/1. Both won later.

Over five years, Block’s first-time starters on turf win 16% (7-for-43). In turf routes, all three winners were 3-1 or lower; he’s 0-for-10 at 10-1 or higher.

The priciest horse in the race has the top figure, and he earned it in a key race. On Aug. 8 at Saratoga, at 1 1/16 miles on turf, he hit the gate at the start, angled four-wide into the stretch and closed for 3rd at 24/1 with a 65. Two of the horses behind him won next out, and the top two have been running in graded stakes (see the common races below). On Sept. 3 at Kentucky Downs he was 3/1, vied for the lead and weakened to 6th. Blinkers come off. His dam, Sosua, won three dirt sprints, ran in the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl and sold for $560,000 at Fasig-Tipton November in 2023.

Over five years, Robert Medina’s maidens in turf-route special weights are 6-for-102 (6%).

The best turf-route family in the race. Half-brother Muscled won three times and earned $129,100 with an 89 Beyer, all in turf routes, and the family is 3-for-12 in them. He was bet to 3/1 on debut in the Oct. 9 race but pulled his way to the 4-path and weakened to 12th. He’s since worked a bullet half in :48 2/5 (1st of 19) at Keeneland. Riley Mott is 9-for-47 (19%) since Oct. 1, but over five years his second-time turf routers after a turf-route debut are 2-for-26 (8%).

The deepest family in the race. His dam ran in the Grade 2 Buena Vista for Coolmore and Neil Drysdale, and her foals have earned $1.09 million, led by Top Gun Girl ($425,303) and full brother Fuzzbuster ($358,644, 85 Beyer). But it’s a sprint family: 3-for-21 in turf sprints, 1-for-10 in turf routes.

He was 4th in that Oct. 18 race, rallying late after he had to switch to the inside at the quarter pole, and 4th at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 3. Larry Rivelli wins 24% at Churchill over five years.

Also eligible

They run only if there are scratches.

• Castle Pines (Kent Sweezey): his 69, when 2nd in the Oct. 9 race, is the best figure on either list. He sat closest to a fast pace that day and was the only one near it to hold on.
• Platinum Power (Sarah Shaffer): 3rd in the Oct. 18 race after chasing the pace four-wide, with a 56.
• Code of Arms (Steve Asmussen): a $625,000 Not This Time, 7th in both dirt starts. Turf is new: his sire wins 16% in turf routes, but his dam’s foals are 1-for-11.
• Best Screenplay (Jack Sisterson): 3rd in a mile turf maiden at Kentucky Downs, then 4th for a $75,000 tag at Belmont.

The Common Races

Aug. 8, Saratoga Race 8 (Mo Misery 3rd). The key race in this field, and the toughest race anyone here has run in. Winner Oscar was 2nd in the Grade 1 Summer at Woodbine and 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf with an 83. Runner-up Bold Leadership has been 2nd in the Grade 3 With Anticipation and the Grade 2 Bourbon, and he’s still a maiden. Berta’s Stitch (7th) and Just Joe (8th) both won next out, and Just Joe then ran 4th in the Grade 3 Futurity. Time in Motion, 4th that day, has run 2nd twice here since, with a 66 and a 68.

Flow: The pace was slow (:49.99 half), and the winner had the dream trip, tracking along the rail and slipping through inside. Mo Misery hit the gate, sat 7th and closed from four-wide into that slow pace. His 3rd was better than it looks.

Sept. 3, Kentucky Downs Race 4 (Rivelli 4th, Mo Misery 6th). Arrival Time, 5th that day, has won twice since.

Flow: Mo Misery went after Circadian for the lead, got his head in front on the far turn, and then cracked. Circadian, the one he was fighting, held on for 2nd. The winner and 3rd both came from 8th or worse early. Rivelli was shuffled at the start and went four-wide.

Sept. 17, Churchill Race 5 (American Veteran 5th). Same trip as Wednesday. Mixed runbacks, no winners.

Flow: The half went in a slow :49.02, but the first two still came from 8th and 6th. American Veteran fought his rider early, sat 2nd and had nothing left in the stretch.

Sept. 24, Churchill Race 8 (Sweeten the Pot 9th). The form is working out. Winner Okarito ran 3rd in the Grade 3 Grey with a 74, and the 2nd and 3rd have both improved since, without a win yet.

Flow: The pace was honest (:48.29 half), and the top three all came wide: the winner from the 7-path, and the runner-up five-wide. Sweeten the Pot saved ground on the rail, which wasn’t where the run was that day.

Oct. 9, Keeneland Race 5 (Mo Way 4th, Col Frank Slade 12th). The form isn’t working out: the top three have all run worse next out.

Flow: A fast pace (:22.76, :47.43). The two pacesetters finished 9th and 10th, and the winner and 3rd came from midpack. That flattered Mo Way, who rallied from 9th early, and hurt Col Frank Slade, who was 4th early, pulling, and stopped to last. Throw out his debut. Castle Pines (AE) ran best of the speed.

Oct. 18, Keeneland Race 9 (Rivelli 4th, Which One 6th, Midway Gold 7th). Run on dirt after coming off the turf, so it says little about grass. Winner Arrival Time came back to win a turf allowance here on Nov. 8.

Flow: The first three were 2nd, 3rd and 4th early, and with a :50 half that’s where you wanted to be. Which One and Midway Gold both broke slowly. Sagamore ducked out at the quarter pole and cost Which One, who took up, and Rivelli, who had to switch to the inside before rallying late.

More Maiden Race of the Day: Sunday’s Belmont Race 6 · Saturday’s Belmont Race 2 · every Maiden Race of the Day. Today’s picks from the whole ITM team are on the Today’s Racing page, and the rest of our Churchill handicapping is in our Churchill Downs coverage.