Another all-turf edition of the Monday Mid-Atlantic Pick-4 kicks off this afternoon at 3:49 (ET) with the 5th race from Monmouth Park. This week and next Monday. Labor Day, are the last two days to get in on this innovative, low-takeout (15%), wagering opportunity between Monmouth Park and Colonial Downs. This is another very good sequence with some wide open betting races that could lead to another solid payout.
MONMOUTH RACE 5 (LEG A):
I’m going to try to escape this $16K-$14K N2L claiming race using only two runners. I’ll side with Mystified (#1) as the top selection here. He’s finished in the money in last four starts, breaking his maiden on this course two starts back. He faced winners for the first time three weeks ago, finishing third when going nine furlongs. I think the cutback ot one mile will be helpful today, along with the rider switch to the apprentice, Jose Gomez. I think he’ll be rolling late in this one. Beau Brown (#4) will be the other runner that I’ll be using here. He ran huge here three starts ago,m breaking his maiden while running with a $25K tag. He had a rough trip against a very good field for a conditioned claiming race two back. He had the lead until Noble Conquest powered home as a much the best winner in the same nine furlong race on this course. Mark Hennig has him at the right level here. I’ll try to beat both Gun for Success (#2) who was not good at all last time out. Paco Lopez was trying to rate him and he looked like he wanted no part of that. He might need to try to do the same thing here, because I don’t think he is as fast as some of the others in the early stages. I’ll also try to beat Bob in Our Mist (#6) who was very good at this level last out, losing in a three horse photo where he was caught in the middle of some heavy bumping. He sat a perfect trip that day though and I think the likelihood of sitting a similar trip is much more slim while breaking from Post 6.
COLONIAL DOWNS RACE 7 (LEG B):
I’m siding with Vibrancy (#8) on top in this nine furlong $20K starter allowance for fillies and mares on the inner turf course. She drew the outside stall when going one mile with N1X foes last time out. She didn’t have a particularly good trip that day, going about four wide into the first turn. She made her way to the two path for the second turn, but was covered up until the final furlong. She did outfinish several others to get 4th that day, when the top three were clearly better. This is a drop in class for her and I think she has a big chance with a better trip today. Passion Plus (#5) is a longshot that I think is live, while shipping up from Gulfstream. Her synthetic races there aren’t great, but her form on the turf is much better. She was a winner in April with conditioned $35K claimers there. She advanced to this level and definitely had some run, but didn’t get the best ride. She ran up on the heels of the leader when she had nowhere to go. She was forced to steady and never really had a clear path, finishing 8th, beaten only three lengths in a crowded finish. She’s finished first or second in 15 of her 34 career turf races, so I’m confident that she can be there at the end with this group. Double Fireball (#6) could be a pace factor in this race, while getting back on the turf. She ran well enough in the Dahlia Stakes in April to take another shot in the Big Dreyfus Stakes in July. That one didn’t go well , but she did improve in an off the turf race in her most recent start. Sometimes in these nine furlong races, the pace can be very slow, which would give her an edge here as I’d expect to see her colors in front when they make the first turn. Chick’s Shadow (#4) is the tepid morning line favorite in this race after winning her last two starts, including one at this condition at the beginning of the month. She has tactical speed and is a perfect 2-2 on this course. I do think this field is deeper than the field she faced on 8-2, so 7-2 (ML) feels a little light on this one.
MONMOUTH RACE 7 (LEG C):
The featured N1X allowance race at Monmouth today is a wide open eight horse puzzle. There should be a legitimate battle for the front end with Pirate Punch (#3) and Tetragrammaton (#4). Both runners pretty much have only one way to go, and with both of them in here, it certainly makes their task more complicated. Comedic Timing (#7) feels like a horse that is trending up. He just missed in conditioned claiming two starts back. He was full of run last time, while moving up in class to starter allowance company. He still is a little green, but he definitely feels like he can compete at this level. I think he’s enticing at 6-1 or higher. Sovereign Warrior (#8) is moving up the class ladder after running four solid races since getting back on the grass. He won two starts back at Parx and was second in a salty optional claiming/starter allowance race at Delaware earlier in the month. Gunslinger, who beat him that day, is in excellent form this summer and would likely be a heavy favorite among this group. I think he sits the right trip, stalking the dueling frontrunners, getting first run on the back of the pack. On deeper tickets, the likely favorite in this race will be Artie’s Angel (#5), who has won two of his last three starts. Paco Lopez was aboard for both of his wins and he gets the return class today. Those races were excellent, but he’ll need to prove that he can consistently run those races before I’ll invest in him at short odds.
COLONIAL DOWNS RACE 8 (LEG D):
The payout leg of this sequence is a N1X allowance race at 5 and ½ furlongs on the outer turf course. I don’t trust the speed in horses in this race, and as long as Psychedelic Shack (#2), True Jedi (#7), and Elusive Agent (#8) all remain in this race, I think it will set things up for a closer. I am a little surprised to see Christopher Davis enter True Jedi here. He’s a Kentucky guy and the N1X level at Kentucky Downs had purses around $140K, which is twice that of the very nice $70K offered for this race. Perhaps he feels the 6 and ½ furlong sprints there would be out of his range. Either way, I’ll be keeping an eye on the changes, as I could upgrade one of these if another one defects. I think Horacio Karamanos, who rides this course so well, can get the timing right with By The Sey Shore (#4) today. He just missed at this level on a good course two weeks ago. He’s been knocking on the door in his last few starts at this level and Ithink the jockey switch today may be enough to get him over the top. Small Field (#9) starts in the outside stall in this race after finishing third in the same race as By The Sey Shore last time out. He was shuffled back in that race, and didn’t have a lane until the final furlong. He did quicken nicely in between horses, getting passed late by the two runners that came over the top. He might lose a little more ground from his wide draw today, but I think he might have less traffic to contend with. Vocalize (#1) ships in from Saratoga after a narrow defeat in a $50K starter allowance race. He’s was popular at the claim box and since Linda Rice claimed him, he’s been protected. The ship makes sense as the purse structure is the same between his last race and this race. He’d likely be overmatched at the N1X level at the Spa, but he appears to fit nicely with this group.
| Leg | A | B |
| A | 1,4 | |
| B | 5,8 | 4,6 |
| C | 7,8 | 5 |
| D | 1,4,9 |
The caveman ticket would cost $36 for the $0.50 increment of this wager. I would consider adding either Psychedelic Shack (#2) or True Jedi (#7) if one or the other scratches out of the last leg of this wager. I don’t really have a front runner in that leg, so the insurance wouldn’t be a bad thing, but I think if they both run, they are most likely to cancel each other out. I think the best betting race in the sequence is the second leg, which is Race 7 at Colonial. I think both Passion Plus (#5, 12-1) and Vibrancy (#8, 9-2) have big chances in that race.
