Monmouth at the Meadowlands Full Card Analysis – 9/21/24 – By Eric Solomon

Six more turf races are on tap tonight at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on what should be a beautiful September evening. The featured race is an open maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going a mile in Race 4. Last night, we saw four of the six races were won by horses going gate to wire. The other two winners were never farther back than three lengths behind the leader at any point of call. The rails were set at 17 feet last night, but they’ll be at 0 feet for tonight’s races. First post this evening is 7:00 (EDT). 

Race 1:

A full field of three and four year old filly $10K maiden claimers will sprint five furlongs in the first race of the evening. Some of the shorter priced runners in this spot are turning back from two turn routes, and I’m not sure this distance on the turf is going to suit them. I have liked the improvement pattern from Wellton Girl (#8), who lost in a photo with $16K-$14K maiden claimers at Monmouth in her last try. While she is dropping in class on paper, I’m not resting many of these races from Monmouth to the Meadowlands as normal drops in class. The $16K-$14K maiden claiming condition is the bottom level maiden claimer at Monmouth while the $10K maiden claimer is the bottom level at the Meadowlands. These races typically draw comparable fields and while the claiming price is lower, the risk for being claimed might also be lower because as the weather changes on the East Coast, there are fewer and fewer opportunities for lower level horses to compete on the grass. That being said, Wellton Girl fits nicely with this field. She ran on the turf four times down the shore, and finished third three times and fourth once. She was closer to the pace in the early stages in her most recent start, and I think that was the key to her better performance. She runs for lower profile connections that are typically overlooked at the windows in New Jersey, but these are connections that can blow up the toeboard from time to time. War Terminatrix (#12) draws the outside slot in the starting gate and drops out of $40K state bred maiden claiming company to this open $10K spot. Her turf sprints in New York weren’t terrible, but she was facing better horses in those races. She is getting definite class relief and her speed figures put her right in the mix with the horses at this level. Let’s get a little wild in this race and toss in Udidn’tpay (#1) as a crazy longshot in this race. She’s another runner for low profile connections here, and her dirt form is nothing short of abysmal. Her best career finish came in a race at 5 ½ furlongs and her dam was a winner on debut in a turf sprint in New York. The dam sire is Freud, who has produced some salty turf sprinters, especially in the New York bred ranks. Her sire is Courageous Cat, who was a Grade 1 winning turf miler. He gave the great Goldikova all she could handle in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing second to her at long odds that afternoon. Blinkers come back on after removing them for her last start on the dirt at Parx. If there’s a horse in this field that is going to move up on the turf, her pedigree suggests it very well could be her, and she’s going to be a huge longshot.   

Race 2:

Beaten $5K claimers are going one mile on the turf here. Maybe It’s Time (#4) tossed in a clunker in his last start at Delaware. His race two back wasn’t the greatest either. However, he is getting significant class relief and he seems to have the best early speed in the field. When he was at his best last year, he was forwardly placed. Even though he crumbled in his last start, I liked seeing that he was vying for the early lead for the first time this year. I think he’ll be hanging around late at this level. Cabinet Pik (#9) is a nine year old gelding that was racing up wins with open $12,500-$10,500 claiming in New Jersey in 2022. He last won back in June of 2023, but he hasn’t finished in the money in his last eight starts. He’s another runner that is getting notable class relief. That $12,500-$10,500 claiming level at Monmouth is usually a highly competitive condition, and he’s definitely lost a step. Three of his four races have been sprinting this year, but I like him better going two turns. He’s still running consistent figures, which should put him in the conversation with this group. I don’t love the 3-1 price, but if his odds float up closer to 5-1, I’d be more inclined to be a little more aggressive with him. Saponara (#2) is another runner that fits the profile of how this course was playing last night night. He’s routed on the turf two times in his career and he was in the front half of the field in the early stages both times. He ran well at Penn National two back, but he was too close to an aggressive pace at Delaware last time when facing a stronger field. His speed figures have improved since coming to the turf and I think he fits with this field as well. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares are running one mile in this $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race. Louella Street (#2) wants to be forwardly placed, which was a plus on this course last night. She is making her third start off the layoff today and stretching back out to two turns, which is what she does best. She crossed the finish line first last year at Parx in June, but was subsequently disqualified from purse money for a medication violation, thus keeping her eligible for this level. She was running against better horses last year when going two turns on the turf, so if she’s able to run back to those races in this spot, I see her being tough to beat. The 6-1 morning line number feels like fair value. Calming Street (#6) is the morning line favorite with Paco Lopez in the irons. Lopez was shut out here last night, but he’s always a threat when riding in New Jersey. This horse was claimed for $16K at Gulfstream back in February, and started only once for Breen since, finishing 7th, beaten 10 lengths in a $25K N2L claiming race on the turf in South Florida. This is a fairly steep drop in class for a horse that could be productive in some higher priced claiming races on the Tapeta in Florida. She’s been based here, so this could be simply a roll of the dice by Breen, entering her in a lower level race in the hopes that she’s not claimed prior to his barn heading South for the winter. However, it could also be a sign that she hasn’t progressed the way he had hoped. There are mixed signals, and at the end of the day, she’s going to be on the A line for me from a class and connections standpoint at this level. However, 2-1 feels too light for me to play to win. Both of my A line runners want to be on or near the lead, so I do want to back up with a runner that could be stalking the pace. I think Symphony’s Overture (#3) is better than her last race at Monmouth where she faced winners for the first time. That field was stronger than the field she’s facing today and she never really looked like she was comfortable on the outside that afternoon. She looked better at Parx when breaking from the rail in the race where she broke her maiden two back. I’m looking for Moya to save as much ground as possible with her behind the leaders and then try to tip out to make a bid at the top of the stretch.

Race 4:

The featured race in a nine horse maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going one mile here. Chad Brown sends out Toodelirious (#4) for the first time in this race. She is the first North American horse to race that was sired by the 2020 Arc de Triomphe winner, Sottsass. Brown trained her half sister, Positive Carry, who is winless in eight career starts, but has been competitive in every one of those races. The works are solid, and while some of Brown’s runners have disappointed over the last five years, he has four winners from seventeen starters, and two of those winners have gone on to be stakes winners. The works are decent and giving the mount to Paco Lopez, who rarely rides for Brown in New Jersey, is a positive sign. While I tend to prefer experienced runners in these races, I’m not in love with any of the races that I’ve seen from those that have competed. I’ll back up with another first time starter, Dyna Soar (#6) for Michael Dini and Ballybrit Stables. They campaigned her dam, Dynatail, who was a multiple stakes winner on the turf. Her first foal to race showed nothing on the track, but she ran only three times, all with $16K maiden claimers, where she never lifted a foot. The fact that this one debuts in a maiden special weight spot, suggests that she has shown much more ability in the AM than her sister. Her last two works have been more lively, so I think she can run a quality race at first asking. 

Race 5:

$12,500-$10,500 claimers are going one mile here. As I mentioned earlier, this condition is often very salty at Monmouth Park, and looking at the competition here, I see that trend continuing at the Big M. Justintimeforwine (#4) has been one of my favorite horses at Monmouth over the last two meets. He had four wins in five starts at the recently concluded meet down the shore and he’s returning after a gate to wire score at this level on Haskell Day. He was a vet scratch in August and he was scratched again in a race taken off the turf at the end of last month. I was looking forward to playing against him in those races because he has struggled to run his best races when starting out of the chute at Monmouth (where all of the 1 1/16 races started this year). He is very good at this one mile distance (straight away start here and at Monmouth) though and despite the large field, he doesn’t have a lot of competition for the early lead. Dictating the tempo is the name of his game and all four of wins this year have come in that fashion. He is 0-2 on this course, but one of those races came in allowance company at five furlongs, which is not his game. He was nailed on the wire at this level in 2022 when competing on a good course. He likes the course hard and firm, which he should get tonight. I think he’s going to take them all the way. Nantasket Beach (#1) is the morning line favorite and the one with the best chance of running him down. He was beaten by Mohs last out when facing a strong field at the open $22K-$18K claiming level. That one ended the Monmouth Meet with three straight wins in impressive fashion while facing strong fields. He ended up setting the pace that day when facing a scratched depleted field. He’s at his best when he’s stalking, which barring a disaster at the break for the top pick, that’s the kind of trip he should get tonight. If you’re looking for a longer priced alternative to the two shorter prices in this race, perhaps Koblas Mas (#3) could be a runner that makes some sense here. He was claimed by Dan Ward back in August of 2023. His next two starts for this barn were washed off the turf at Delaware. He ran two more times in 2023, both on dirt at Delaware and Oaklawn before going on a nine month hiatus. He returned against a tougher field when facing Mohs and Nantasket Beach at Monmouth last month. He likely needed that race. If he’s able to run back to his early 2023 form on the grass, he could be a factor here. I prefer him underneath, but if his odds float up from his 15-1 morning line number to 20-1 or higher, I’d be willing to make a small win wager.

Race 6:

The night ends with a $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race for three year olds and up, sprinting five furlongs. Chochocho (#7) is the play for me in this spot. He ran well in his turn debut at five furlongs at Monmouth two starts back. He was caught late by El Tekilero (#4) that day. He came back to win a modest $5K maiden claiming race on the dirt in a four furlong dash at Timonium. He dueled from the inside two back when these foes last met, and I think switching to the outside post, may give him the slight edge. I think El Tekilero is better than his last start where he had all sorts of trouble. He was in between rivals in the early stages when he was outgunned for the early lead from the eventual race winner, who had the outside post. He was bumped around in and coming out of the chute and was forced to the back of the pack. He tried to make another run at the quarter pole, but once again was stymied in traffic. He beat the top pick on the square two back and I think he figures in this race today. It’s interesting to see War Terminator (#3) racing on the same card as his full sister, War Terminatrix (Race 1). Both were at Saratoga with Gary Contessa this summer. He came down to Monmouth and was a wide 5th in the same race that El Tekilero had the trouble. I’m not sure that he has enough early speed to win this race, so as the favorite, I’m going to try to beat him. I do think he’s likely to get a piece of the pie though and if his odds float upward, he may be more enticing.