There’s another all-turf, six race card starting at 7:00 (EDT) at the Meadowlands this evening. There are some nice horses running in some allowance races on this card, as well as a promising maiden special weight race.
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 4 | 4,7 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6,7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 8 | 3 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 5 | 8 | 8 | 7,2 | $5 Late DBL | |
| 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Race 1:
The Saturday night card starts off with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going one mile. All six of the races tonight will be run over the turf course where the rails will be set at 17 feet. I landed on Giant Groove (#4) as the top pick in this race, hoping to catch a price. This gelding didn’t show much in his first two races on the dirt, but he took a decent step forward in his third start when getting on the turf for the first time against stronger competition at Monmouth. He’ll still need to take another step forward here, but we do see Rory Huston’s runners get better with more races under their belts. The dam has had several other New Jersey bred runners make it to the track and the winners all scored on the dirt. However, there are some subtle turf influences in his pedigree and he’s not facing any world beaters tonight. Told (#7) is probably the one to beat in this race. He came within a length of breaking his maiden when making his first grass start at Monmouth in August. He made a strong middle move in that race and leveled off a bit, but still ran a credible race. He should be more fit for this race while making his third start off the layoff today. Blake Kelly has had two starters at this meet thus far and both finished second. He has some horses that have a live look on this card tonight as well. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Berman (#5) who was second when racing in a $10K maiden claiming race here two weeks ago. This field is a little bit stronger than that group, but this is probably the type of race his should be in at this point in his career.
Race 2:
The options claiming/starter allowance race should be a good spot for Mayday Malone (#3) to notch his first North American victory. He was competitive in some small handicap races in Great Britain last year, winning three times and finishing second three times while making seven starts. He came overseas and was paired with Miguel Clement. He ran twice in N2X company at Aqueduct and Colonial, but those waters were likely a little deep for him. He also drew outside posts in both races and had to concede ground both times. He’s drawn a more favorable post while getting some solid class relief tonight. When looking at his track record in Europe, I think this is a horse that can find his old winning ways tonight in his third try in America. Tocayo (#5) appears to be the biggest threat to the top pick. He’s also making his third start off the layoff tonight. He came up short in his first two starts at Monmouth. He also had to try to overcome a wide journey in his first start off the break. He was sharper last out in a starter handicap race, but he was up against a very nice horse, Two’s a Crowd, who was in great form this summer. Juan Avila has had a great year as a trainer and if he can get a little more out of this five year old, he’s going to be a tough customer here.
Race 3:
Open $6K-$5K claimers will go one mile in the race that starts the only Pick-4 wager of the evening. This is one of those conditions that are not offered on the turf at Monmouth, so there’s usually an interesting mix of local class droppers taking on some shippers in these kinds of races. However, this race feels like it’s going to come down to either Into It (#6) or Ruse (#7). Ruse is the favorite and he was a winner at Monmouth on Haskell Day in a $12,500-$10,500 claiming race. Closers have historically struggled in one mile races on the turf at Monmouth when the rails are set at 0 feet, and perhaps part of that is because at that distance and rail setting, they can have as many as 14 horses in the gate there. There were only nine starters in the gate for that race that he won, but it’s still very unusual for a horse to close from 13 lengths back at the half mile pole to win in a race like that. He was squeezed to the back of the pace in his last start at Delaware in a $10K-$9K claiming race, but again, he still made up a lot of ground to get within less than a length of winning that race. He drops in class again, which isn’t that concerning to me since he’s an eight year old gelding that has never finished in the money on the dirt or synthetic. There’s not going to be many claiming options for him on the grass, so I think Simone is willing to take the risk of running him at this level. I am more concerned about his pace dependency though. There’s not much speed signed on for this race, so I do worry that his late kick is going to come up a bit short. I’ll make Into It the top pick, in hopes that the class drop and the return to the grass will help him get back to his better form from earlier in the year. He lost all chance at the break in the slop in his last try at Monmouth. He should have the tactical edge on the favorite, so if the he’s closer to 3-1 and the favorite is closer to even money, I think there is value to be had.
Race 4:
The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with a maiden special weight for three year olds and up going a mile. This feels like a great spot for Housing Market (#8) to make his second career start. He debuted in a six horse race at Saratoga where he drew the rail. He broke well, but was forced to take up twice in the run into the first turn, which had loping along at the back of the pack. Like many NYRA turf races, that race was pretty much a merry-go-round race with the leader setting a soft pace and having plenty left for the stretch drive. That was a live race as the third place finisher came back to score in at Churchill Downs. The second and fourth place finishers came back to run second in maiden special weight races at Kentucky Downs and Saratoga. The outside draw for this race should allow him to find a better spot in the early going. There are some other prominent trainers in this race, so I’m hoping the number doesn’t dip too low on this gelding, but I think he stands a big chance to score in this one. Duty (#2) figures to set the tempo, but I think Resolute (#3) will keep him honest. While I think that helps the top pick, Resolute is the one I want as a backup. I don’t love how Duty has been finishing lately and Resolute was good enough to be second in a state bred stakes race two back at Penn National. He prefers a firmer course than he got last out at Laurel and I think he’ll get that today.
Race 5:
New Jersey bred fillies and mares will go one mile in this optional $30K claiming/N2X allowance race. Lidia Rose (#3) was cross-entered last night, but she defected from that spot, presumably in favor of this race. I liked her a lot in that race last night, but I’m convinced she’s going to be as effective at two turns. There is a decent amount of speed signed up for this race and some of those horses are better in sprint races. I’m looking for a horse that can get involved late. Exclusive Champion (#8) was second when facing state bred N1X types last weekend. While she’s facing tougher tonight, she has decent efforts on this course. She’s been a little closer to the early pace in her last two starts, and that’s not really when she’s at her best. There are as many as five horses that could be vying for the lead and I think the play is for Christopher Elliott to tuck in behind runners and make one run late. The same could be said for Golden Ring (#7) who was just behind the top pick last week. Perhaps Paco upgraded her as she did run a career top figure that night. Omahamoiselle, who won that race, is a very nice horse and I think she’d be a heavy favorite in this race if she were racing. I worry about a bit of regression with this one, but she’ll also likely get the right set up. Precious Avary (#2) is the class, but she’s going to be under pressure early and often in this race. She might just be better than some of these, so I’ll choose to have her on tickets as a backup, but unless some of the other speed scratches out of this one, she might be in deep water in the final 1/16 of a mile.
Race 6:
Grunge (#3) is the heavy favorite in the nightcap for Miguel Clement. There could be a few reasons why this one is showing up here instead of at Belmont after finishing a game second in his last start at the Spa in N1X company. The biggest reason is likely the distance, as I’m not sure this one wants to go 6, 6 ½, or 7 furlongs at Belmont on the turf course there. He’s been close in those 5 ½ furlong sprints, but his late kick isn’t as strong as some of the other runners in New York. The other reason is that some N1X races in both New York and Florida allow horses to compete at that level if they are victorious in a first level allowance race where their winnings stay under a certain threshold. I think this also gives Clement an idea if he can compete at this distance in South Florida, because five furlongs is the only distance on the table there. If he doesn’t put his best foot forward at this distance with this group, perhaps that would encourage him to have this son of Beau Liam winter on the Tapeta at Belmont, which is a new option this season. At the end of the day, this one is in a different class than the other seven runners. If you’re not a believer, Midnight Story (#1) would be where I’d land. He was pace composed when going 5 ½ furlongs at Monmouth in his last start, but he was sharp there three back. Toss his race at tough state bred foes when going two turns two starts ago. He can compete at this level and the faster they go early, the better chance he has.
