Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 6/8/24 – By Eric Solomon-FULL POST

Nine races are on the schedule once again at Monmouth Park, highlighted by the $85K Friendly Lover Handicap for New Jersey Breds. After starting the afternoon yesterday on a firm turf course, mid-afternoon showers caused the other three races carded for the turf to be moved over to the main track. Right now it looks dry tomorrow, so I’m hopeful that we’ll be back on the turf today. Haskell Preview Day is coming up on Saturday with four stakes on the card, all of which will offer entry into various graded stakes races on the Haskell Card on July 19th. First post this afternoon is set for 12:50 (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

One more note: In the Picks Grid, when there are multiple choices in a column, the numbers are now listed in order of preference as opposed to numerical order. 

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

We’ll start things off with a contentious, beaten $40K-$30K claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Scheduling Dude (#4), My Boy Rocky (#5), and Hawkstone (#6) are all three year olds with two career victories. The other six runners in the body of the field qualified under the N2L condition. I think you make a case for eight of the nine runners in this race, so trip and value are going to be critical. I think there’s grow-up potential for Front End (#3) in this race. He stalked the pace and scored on the Tapeta in his debut back in August at Gulfstream. He was away until November where he faltered in a two turn turf allowance race at Churchill. That was a strong field and drawing post 12 while going 1 1/16 for the first time after being away for three months, felt like an awful lot to overcome. He was away again until April this time when he came back in a five furlong turf sprint at Gulfstream. He was overmatched in that spot, finishing last of seven that day. He ran a better race though and I think the 5 ½ furlong distance is going to be better suited to his running style. Blinkers go on for his local debut and that has been a strong angle for Jorge Delgado’s runners. Delgado has good numbers with turf sprinters as well, so I wondered how many horses with racing experience that Delgado sent out that put blinkers on for a turf sprint. It turns out that over the last five years, there have only been four other runners that he sent out that met those qualifiers. None of the four were winners, but two of them lost in photo finishes and three of them won in their second start with blinkers. The 4th runner was a two year old that made her second start a few weeks ago and was forced steady hard at the ½ mile pole, all but eliminating her from contention in that race. While there isn’t conclusive data that correlates these data sets, it does confirm to  me that for the most part, when he does add blinkers in general, his horses do move forward. Hawkstone (#6) runs for the first time since March for Cathal Lynch. His runners have been live at this meet, winning with two and having the other three finish in the money. I thought both of his turf efforts last fall were solid enough. He’s been working well at Fair Hill, so I see him as a horse that could move forward in this spot as well. My Boy Rocky (#5) already has two starts at this meet at this distance. He was claimed by Claudio Gonzalez for $16K two starts ago and then ambitiously placed in an allowance field two weeks ago. While he finished 6th that day, he certainly didn’t embarrass himself. This feels like the right level to drop to, and I think his running style fits the winning profile as well. Face the Facts (#8) is a little bit of a crazy longshot in this race, trying the turf for the first time in his 7th career start. He’s a half to Bridgetown, who was a multiple graded stakes winning turf sprinter. While some of his other siblings had some ability, there were others that didn’t. He’s sired by Flashback, who gets 8% winners from his turf sprinters. While I’m leaning toward seeing a race from him, he might be worth including on some tickets, especially if his odds go over his 10-1 morning line. 

Race 2:

Two year old males will get their first shot to compete in New Jersey today in this 4 ½ furlong maiden special weight contest. Thunder Chuck (#5) is going to be tough in this spot for Jorge Delgado. He won the first baby race of the year last week and he has a dynamic duo here. Thunder Chuck is a full brother to Dancing Magic, who was a debut winner at this distance last year. She went on to win the Gasparilla Stakes this year at Tampa. Good Magic gets 17% winner from his debut runners in dirt sprint races. He was working in company with his stablemate, Manoah’s Glory (#4), prior to snapping off a much sharper workout last time out. All of the ingredients are there for a victory here. The backup for me in Beach Bod (#6) for Jose Delgado and Paco Lopez. This Delgado isn’t as strong with his debuting runners, so this could be a horse better suited for start number two. However, Omaha Beach gets 17% winners with first time starters on dirt. You can assume he’s going to get a good ride with Lopez aboard for the first start. 

Race 3:

Beaten $7,500-$6,500 claimers will go six furlongs here. Seven of the right runners in this spot qualified under the N2L condition, while Hello Sunshine (#7), a three year old, is the lone two time winner. Chuck Spina sends out Joeboy’s Jedi (#3) in this race, and I think this New Jersey bred has a live look at this level. Most of the runners here have been languishing in these lower level claiming races. He’s been facing some salty New Jersey breds in allowance company in his last three starts since breaking his maiden at long odds in state bred maiden allowance company. He’s had large gaps in his running lines, but he often runs a significantly better race in his second start off the bench. I think he’s worth taking a chance on in this race. Gimme Gimme (#1) lost by a neck at this level four weeks ago. He came back and was last of seven when facing a better $12,500-$10,500 beaten claiming field here two weeks ago. His form has been up and down, but this clearly feels like the right level of competition for him. His best effort will win this race, but which version of him will show up is probably the right question to ask. On deeper tickets, I ‘ll cover with Seven Anniversary (#4). His speed figures are generally better than the other runners’ in this race. However, he doesn’t have a ton of early speed and he often runs down to his competition. He’s the kind of horse that I want to be against, but I also don’t really want him to eliminate my tickets in the multi-race wagers.  

Race 4:

We’ll go back to the turf for this $40K-$30K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. The maiden special weight races on the turf here are typically strong, and trainers like Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher are usually a part of those races. As a result, I think both Joe Orseno and Mike Dini see the writing on the wall for their fillies. Orseno sends out a three year old filly, Social Triumph (#5), while Dini trains Enchant (#8), a four year old filly. These two ladies feel like the principal players here. I’ll lean toward Social Triumph as the top pick. She paired her last two Beyer figures on the turf after debuting on Tapeta in March. She was overmatched when losing to a Chad Brown firster here two weeks ago. She drops in class after running competitively in a $50K maiden claiming race at Gulfstream two starts back. I don’t love her lack of early speed, but I do recognize her as a candidate for improvement in this spot. Enchant has danced a lot of dances and she’s earned $54K as a four-time bridesmaid. She ran well on this course, finishing about 3 ½ lengths better than the top pick here last out. She’s sired by English Channel who certainly had an affinity for this course. On deeper tickets, I’ll keep an eye on Tiz Complex (#3) for Cathal Lynch. This feels like mostly a connections play for me here. Her pedigree is not screaming turf as her sire Complexity, one has one winner in 24 turf route races The dam was 0-1 on the turf and none of her foals to race have routed on the turf. However, as a horseman, I do trust Cathal Lynch putting her in this spot if she thinks that she can tun a bit. 

Race 5:

Open $6,250 claimers will go a mile and 70 yards in the race that ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 and begins the Late Pick-5. I’m not trying to beat English Painter (#3), who appears to be trying to strike while the iron is hot. He has 18 career starts and exactly two of them have come on the dirt. Both of those races came on this course last month and both were strong efforts. He just missed in a competitive off the turf claiming race on Opening Day and he handled an overmatched time restricted $5K claiming group here last week with ease. He moves up the class ladder while racing first off the Jose Sanchez claim. Sanchez is not heavily involved in the claiming game, but he runs a horse back, they typically form. He’s started nine runners first off the claim in the last five years and five of those nine found the Winner’s Circle, including four runners here at Monmouth. Paco Lopez riding certainly won’t hurt his chances. The backup for me in this spot is the nine year old gelding, On a Spree (#5). He’d be the heavy favorite if English Patient were not entered. He was claimed at the end of the Oaklawn meet for $12,500 and Gonzalez entered him here with a $6,250 tag, which is never a great sign. He has won with 4 of 19 horses under that scenario in the last five years, with two of those wins coming here last summer. It’s hard not to root for a horse that has 16 wins in 50 starts. 

Race 6:

We’re back on grass for another beaten $40K-$30K claiming race, this one going one mile. All of the runners in this race qualified under the N2L condition. It’s Pizza Time (#4) ran okay despite being wide in an allowance race at Tampa last out when trying the turf for the first time. He’s sired by Karakontie, so it wasn’t surprising to see him move forward a bit on the grass. He drops in class, which is likely the right move. Sonny Leon and Mike Dini have done well together at this meet and I think he’s capable of upgrading his trip. There appears to be enough speed to set the table for a closer like the favorite, Primed to Go (#8). Jorge Duarte doesn’t turn to Paco Lopez too frequently, but they often win together when he does. He’s been close at this level in Maryland in his last two starts. He’s second off the layoff today and figures to “primed to go”, just like his name says. 

Race 7, The $85K Friendly Lover Handicap:

A field of eight has been assembled for the feature race today. While No Cents (#2) is the morning line favorite, he’s been a bit of a money burner in races on this course. He loves running on the main track at Laurel, but his figures typically drop a little bit when’s racing here. As a result. I’ll try to beat him, making, Great Navigator (#5) the top pick. He was excellent in the Charles Hesse Handicap here at the end of the meet in 2023. He’s never run a race that solid in the recent past though. His figures are a little more consistent this year. I see him sitting not far off the pace and then making a late surge toward the leader. I think No Cents will send and I think that’ probably going to be the gambit for Optic Way (#7) as well. As a result I’ll back up with a deep closer, Irish Boolum (#8). He was awesome in this race in 2023, but he failed to find the Winner’s Circle since. He was claimed for $15K by Joan Milne last summer. He came off the bench 10 months later setting the pace before faltering badly in an allowance race on the turf. This is his better surface, so there’s reason to believe that he could move in his second start off the layoff today.  

Race 8:

We’ll see more New Jersey breds with this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. It’s not uncommon to see horses entered in these races that are not great fits for the distance. That’s the case with both Micro Brewsky (#2) and Vesparo (#3). Both of these geldings were right there at the wire in a wild finish last month when going 1 1/16 miles at this level. However, I don’t care for either of these horses at this distance, especially at shorter odds. Instead, I’ll look to use some runners that are more comfortable when sprinting on the turf. I think both Just Comply (#1) and Like What I See (#4) are apt to go hard for the lead. Both runners are good horses, especially at this distance, but I think they could set the table for a closer like Pealing Lad (#9). He’s been off since breaking his maiden in a $37,500 maiden claiming race at Laurel in November. That was at the end of his three year old season and he looked stronger than he did in the summer races here when he was facing state bred maiden weight types. I liked his effort at this distance here back in July and Ben Perkins Jr. is capable of finding the Winner’s Circle with horses coming off layoffs. While the post for this distance isn’t ideal, I think he can ran down the two speed threats. Just Comply is much better when sprinting. His lone win came in a five furlong race at the Meadowlands on a good course, so I don’t think he’d mind if there was a little give in the ground today. He’s coming out of the same allowance race that Micro Brewsky and Vesparo are coming out of. He showed a little zip before fading badly that day. He’s making his second start and I think he gains an edge over those runners on the cutback in distance. Like What I See is the one to beat in this race. I can play him at his 3-1 morning line figure, but I suspect that number is going to drop.Dan Ward claimed him last year and his form started going in the wrong directions. He has big efforts when coming off the bench in the past and he could easily beat these with his best effort. However, if he’s going off a odds below 2-1, the risk that he’s going to keep tailing off does not outweigh the reward. 

Race 9:

The weekend concludes with a $10K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, going six furlongs on the main track. Sergio Rabadan is in search of his first career win as a trainer and he has two strong chances with both Prime Motive (#2) and Go Yoshida (#3). Prime Motive is a little more interesting to me. He’s cutting back in distance to a sprint after a decent try at Delaware against better. He drops in class and should be able to stalk the front-running speed of Go Yoshida. That one ran a big race here two weeks ago, finishing second at this level. He’s been gelded since his last start and Paco Lopez has the chance to pick up another quality winner at this meet. Ramadan had a big longshot finish second on yesterday’s card, so his barn could be getting closer to striking paydirt. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Dave the Great (#4). He almost certainly needed his last race where he debuted at this level for Claudio Gonzalez. He showed some early zip and then folded badly late. We’ve seen Gonzalez’s horses move forward with more starts, so drastic improvement doesn’t feel like a pipe dream here. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 19/86 (22.1%), $192.80, $2.24 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)

Data for Winners Last Start

Another data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners were very strong here last season with 18 of 68 winners last running in Oldsmar, Florida. NYRA runners that are showing up here have not been faring as well as they were a few years ago