Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 7/13/24 – By Eric Solomon

For the first time in a while, rain could have a serious impact on a Saturday afternoon program at Monmouth. It’s a shame as both stakes races today are carded for the turf. Friday races were taken off the turf and there’s more rain in the forecast overnight and into the morning. Unless the rain that was in the forecast overnight dissipates before making its way to Oceanport, I’m thinking that all non-stakes races will almost certainly be taken off the turf and then it will be a coin toss for the Boiling Springs and Blue Sparkler Stakes. I’ll have all five races carded for the turf, handicapped for both surfaces this afternoon. First post is 12:50 PM (ET).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the fourth consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

If this $16K-$14K maiden claiming contest stays on the turf, I think Leo Fong (#8) has a chance to pull off the upset. He debuted going six furlongs on the turf at Aqueduct last spring, but then was entered for a $10K claiming tag on the dirt here a month later. The turf race wasn’t bad, but the dirt race was abysmal. Perhaps there was a reason that he was in for the light tag that afternoon and he wasn’t seen on the track again until December, when he was 7th with $12,500 maiden claimers on the Tapeta at Gulfstream. Blinkers come off and he returns to the turf while making his first start in seven months. His turf race on figures would be competitive with this field, which is not particularly strong. New York Strong (#4) is a player on the turf, but he stands out on dirt in this race. His three dirt races are better than anything anyone in here has done. I think he’s better at one turn whereas Nimmo (#2), who would be the only logical alternative on the dirt, might prefer a bit of a longer race. On the turf, I’d use Ominous Dude (#6), who adds blinkers and drops in class for Bruce Levine. He essentially paired his first two Beyers, so a moderate forward step could be expected. 

Race 2

Beaten $12,500-$10,500 filly and mare claimers will sprint six furlongs here. Tavin (#1), Amirati (#4), and Castellana (#5) are all multiple winners whereas the other three fillies all qualified under the N2L condition. Despite the lack of victories, I’m intrigued with Miss Neo (#3) in this race, making her second start off a lengthy layoff and facing winners for the first time. She is the line four year old here as the other five entrants are three. That means she’s giving anywhere between seven to twelve pounds to her rivals. That being said, I do see her as a candidate to improve in this race. Castellana feels like the one to catch. She easily disposed of beaten $7,500-$6,500 claimers here last month when she made her first start for Mario Serey Jr. While there are others that might want to be forward, she seems to be the quickest in the early stages.

Race 3:

I’m hopeful that this two year maiden special weight race for fillies stays on the turf, because I think Hopeforgreatness (#6) could be a horse that is flying under the radar in this race. She is one of two horses here with some race day experience. She showed a little early foot before fading to 4th in a slow 4 ½ furlong race at Parx on the dirt. She has a full sister who has been very good in turf sprint races. Shoshanah is the sister and she was a winner in her second career start on synthetic at Presque Isle. She went on to win three straight turf sprint races at Penn National and Laurel. She was recently second in the The Very One Stakes at Pimlico two starts ago. She finished off the board in an off the turf allowance race at Saratoga on Thursday. She doesn’t have to have the same amount of talent to win this race. The logical backups on the grass would be the two shorter prices on the morning line, Serene Spirit (#2) and Lemonpeppasteppa (#4). Both make sense from a pedigree and connections standpoint. On the dirt, the two MTO runners make the most sense. Jorge Delgado has had quite the run with his two year olds debuting at this meet. On the dirt, he’ll send out Majestic Bay (#11), who sold for $210K at the OBS Sale this April. Clearly he looked the part at that sale, and seeing him on the track three months after that sale is a definite plus. Mya Way (#12) debuts for Lindsay Schultz. Her works have been steadily improving, and facing rivals that were intended to run on grass is a plus. Schultz’s runners typically need a start before they’re at their best. 

Race 4:

We’re treated with more two year old action in what appears to be one of the stronger maiden special weight races of the meet. The morning line favorite is Crazy Frazy (#5) who just missed in his debut here last month when he lost a duel with Mission First. He has speed and figures to be a major player in this race with the experience under his belt. However, Joe Orseno has a pair of well-meant babies in here that both figure to be prominent. Common logic tells you that Paco Lopez hopping off Crazy Frazy in favor of Grim Reaper (#7) should mean something. The works are good and he’s looking to be the first debut winner for Tiz the Law. I like the outside post, but I do think his stablemate, Knock Knock Joke (#4) could be better suited to win today. He’s sired by Practical Joke, who gets 18% debut winners with two year olds in dirt sprints. The dam has produced a debut winner that also won the Landaluce Stakes in her second start at two. Her other runners have fared well in their second time out. The barn can win early and he was purchased at the OBS Sale in March of 2024, telling me that he showed a lot of potential and speed more recently than horses that were sold as yearlings. 

Race 5, The $100K Boiling Springs Stakes:

If this race goes on the turf, there are only six runners and Chad Brown has a pair of them. However, I think Brocknardini (#5) can beat them both. She is making her first start as a three year old, after winning the Selima Stakes to end her two year old campaign. She was excellent when dominating a field of New York breds in her debut at the Spa last year. She tried Grade 1 company in the Natalma at Woodbine where nothing went her way. She rebounded nicely when scoring at Laurel, but she’s been sidelined ever since. George Weaver opts to send her to this spot, which could set her up nicely for the Suzie O’Cain Stakes for New York bred three year old fillies next month. Spaliday (#3) is the morning line favorite who is still eligible for the N1X allowance condition. Brown sends her here where she is likely going to be heavily backed at the windows. Her dam was the Grade 1 winner, Dayatthespa, and the expectations have been sky high since Day 1. She came up short at Keeneland before breaking her maiden at Belmont at the Big A. She ran 4th in a good N1X allowance race on Belmont Day. This is her 5th career start at the 5th different track. While the Black Type for this race would be nice, I’d have to think that Brown is sending her here because she’s not quite good enough to clear the N1X condition at the Spa. She’s more of a backup for me in this race. On the dirt, I think the other Brown filly, Lady de Berry (#4) has a live look. She debuted on the dirt in a very tough allowance race at Saratoga last summer. Just F Y I won that race and she went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Stakes last fall. She ran three times on the turf and did okay in those three races. She stumbled at the break when facing her stablemate, Spaliday in the same allowance race. She’s never gone two turns on the dirt, but I think she’ll fare well against whatever might be left over in this race. Both MTO runners are logical in this spot as well. Lady Lala (#7) ran a big race when trying two turns for the first time in her second career start. She’s another winner from the Haskell winner Girvin on this course. If she runs back to that race, she’ll be tough. Floge (#8) has three straight wins at this meet, dominating two of those lower level claiming fields. She handled her starter allowance field last out and continues to maintain her decent form. They struggled to put this field together as it was supposed to be run last week. I think she’ll fit with whatever group remains. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with an open $6,250 claiming race going six furlongs. Fatih (#2) ships in from Parx for Michael Catalano. He’s on a good race, bad race pattern where he’s won every other race for the last eight starts. He has a solid running style for this race and this course. He’s handled an off track in the past, but he’s quite capable on a fast track as well. Lookin’ Super (#7) takes a deep dive in class for this race. He’s been off the board in his last three starts, but his speed figures stack up nicely. He’s only 1-6 on this course, so I do think there’s a chance that he could be vulnerable at short odds in this race. First Deputy (#1) cuts back to a sprint in his first start off the claim for Pompeyo Gomez. Assuming the track is muddy or sloppy, I might downgrade his chances a bit, whereas, I could move him up to the A line on a fast track. 

Race 7:

Beaten $16K-$14K claimers are set to sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the grass in this race. All eight runners entered here qualified for this race under the N2L condition. Madness (#2) was a claim and drop special for Claudio Gonzalez. She was caught late at this level last out, but this is a softer field and she’s making her third start off the layoff. I expect her to be in the Winner’s Circle, assuming this race is on the grass. Dance With Me Babe (#5) was competitive on the grass with state bred $40K maiden claimers in New York last year. Her last several races on dirt have been subpar, but running at this level on the turf could be the wake-up call that is needed. On dirt, Love Like Crazy (#8) was trending upward in New York until her last two races. She has some speed and might be better with the cutback to 5 ½ furlongs. The competition will be easier. Keep On Rockin (#1) faltered badly with tougher in her last two dirt races. She caught wide posts in her last two races on grass at this level, so while drawing the rail could be okay if this race gets moved to the main track. 

Race 8:

New Jersey breds will go 1 mile and 70 yards in this optional claiming/N1X allowance race. Irish Boolum (#1) ran his race in the Friendly Lover last out, which he won in 2023. That effort was good enough to be third that day and there’s not a ton of other options left for him in the state bred spectrum. Cathal Lynch drops him in class instead of trying him in harder spots like he did last year. A wet track wouldn’t be an issue and he tends to run his best races on this oval. I didn’t like Go Irish (#8) in a sprint with state bred maiden special weight company last out and he ran a a strong race, going to the front early and never looking back. While I still think he might be better on the turf, I definitely think that two turns will be better for him. He might need this race to get experience at this level, but I don’t think he’ll be lingering too long at this condition. 

Race 9, The $100K Blue Sparkler Stakes:

Three year old fillies will sprint 5 ½ furlongs in the co-featured stakes race on this program. If this race stays on the turf, I’ll take a shot with Shuangxi (#8) in this spot. She had a tough trip at the top of the stretch in the Stormy Blues Stakes last month. She ran very well on this course two starts back when clearing the N1X condition. I think she can track the speed in this spot and make her move on the turf. Tiffany Gold (#4) might be the speed of the speed here. She’s a perfect 2-2 to start her career. She handled the Tapeta on debut and then took care of business when moving for the turf for the first time in May. This is a logical next step for her, but there is a bunch of other early speed to contend with. Discreet Ops (#7)is worth using in her second try on the turf, because if this race falls apart, she’d be the one to pick up the pieces. However, she’s the one I’d back if this race is contested on the main track. She didn’t have the best trip in the Miss Preakness two starts ago, but she still ran on gamely to be third. She showed that she has enough tactical speed to stay in contact with a field like this going this distance three starts ago at Laurel when she handily cleared the N1X condition. Pacific Rose (#1) could be her main opposition on the dirt. She came into Jorge Delgado’s barn after seven races in Southern California for Doug O’Neill. She was sharp when clearing the N1X condition, and while the intent was to try the turf, I don’t think her connections would mind if this race was transferred to the dirt. 

Race 10:

The Saturday nightcap is a beaten $30K-$25K claiming contest going six furlongs. While I don’t love the 1-18 record, I do think that Threethirtythree (#7) has a solid chance to win this race. His form was tailing off a bit, so Jose Hernandez tried him on the turf for the first time. While he didn’t embarrass himself, it wasn’t necessarily a successful endeavor either. He had a nice string of races on the dirt in the winter and spring where he was just unlucky not to win. I think he can regain that form while moving back to a sprint on the dirt. Palm Island (#6) is the morning line favorite after a big effort to be second to a runaway winner last month. That was his first start in 10 months. He was working well prior to that effort and he fired a bullet work at four furlongs last week in preparation for this start. While I’m not 100% sold he can replicate that last effort in back to back tries, I do think he fits well with this group.

Meet Statistics/Notes:

Top Pick Winners, 55/242 (22.7%), $373.40, $1.54 ROI

0 Feet

12 Feet

24 Feet

36 Feet