Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 8/24/24 – By Eric Solomon

Saturday at Monmouth Park offers a 10 race card, headed by the Sorority Stakes for two year old fillies going one mile on the main track. Monmouth is hosting the Monmouth/Saratoga Tournament, which requires players to bet a minimum of $80 on 5 of the 10 races from Monmouth. The 14 races from Saratoga are also fair game for the tournament, but they don’t count toward the minimums each player needs to meet in order to be eligible for the prizes. On site registration begins at 11:00 this morning and there is a 25% cash prize bonus for anyone playing at Monmouth. A lot of the ideas I had for the dirt races on this card were predicated on the idea that the rail was not a good place to be, and speed horses on the rail were struggling mightily. That was the case for the last two weeks, however yesterday showed that the rail was significantly better as speed horses won all four races. I’m not going to change any of my picks in the event that the track is playing differently on Saturday. That is something to keep in mind early on, as the first three races of the day are contested over the main track. However, in terms of the tournament, I might watch the first two races before possibly adjusting my strategy for the dirt races this afternoon. First post this afternoon is the usual 12:50 PM (EDT). 

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the fourth consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a wild, 12 horse, maiden special weight race for two year olds going six furlongs. Three weeks ago, I made a case for El Medianoche (#7), at 41-1 on debut. He ran well to be 4th that day, beaten by Ellinger, a George Weaver first time starter ridden by Paco Lopez. At 8-1 (ML) or better, I’m going to try this one again in this spot. He’s bred to win early and his debut was good enough to build off of. Susan Crowell has struggled in 2024, but she is a terrific horsewoman who has won her share of races on the Mid-Atlantic circuit over the years. The Beyer Figure was a little light, when compared to the morning line favorite, Okverygood (#10), however, Equibase has those figures closer together, which could help amplify the value. Okverygood ran a strong race on debut, so I’m not tossing him by any stretch of the imagination. He is a second time starter, and I do think as these baby races get longer, horses with a little foundation can have an advantage over the first time starters. I suspect he’s going to be overbet in this large field though. Polo Drive (#5) is an interesting first time starter from freshman sire, Game Winner. He’s based at Saratoga and when a two year old ships from there to here in the middle of the meet, that’s usually a red flag for me. However, when Ellinger won at first asking in the race that El Medianoche came out of, he was shipping here from Saratoga. He’s owned by Spendthrift, who has the breeding rights to his sire Vekoma. There’s an interest from a breeding standpoint to have a decent percentage of first out winners. In this case, Polo Drive is owned by William Farish, who is the owner of Lanes End Farm. Lanes End has the breeding rights to Game Winner, who is currently 1-22 with his debuting runners. Finding an easier spot for him to make his first start, could be a way for Farish to improve upon those numbers. That being said, there’s a large field of babies for this race, so I’m not totally convinced they’ll make the trip. However, I do think this one is worth considering, especially if he’s overlooked in the wagering. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this beaten $5K claiming race. It’s very hard to build a legitimate case for longer priced runners in this race, other than hoping for an instant form reversal. Sofster (#4) has two strong efforts in a row, eight days apart. She was claimed for $7,500 when winning last out, only to have that claim voided by the vet. She’s been off for a month since those efforts and she’s turned in a pair of uncharacteristically slow workouts. She had a much sharper four furlong drill the week before her strong effort on 7/13. Looking back deeper in her history, she’s typically been a faster work horse in the mornings than what she’s shown over the past two weeks, and then the fact that she’s entered for a lower tag following her win, is also a bit of a concern, especially when talking about the horse that is likely to go off at odds lower than her 2-1 morning line. I’m going to try to beat her in this spot, especially if the odds disparity between her and the two other shorter priced runners widens. Between Dreams (#5) is the play for me in this race. There’s not much speed signed on, which tells me that Sofster and maybe Matoula (#3) to her inside, should be on the lead. I see Rendon getting a nice stalking trip in third or fourth, just behind those leaders. I think she’ll get first run on Rose E Holiday, who figures to be the main danger. Rose E Holiday (#2) just missed when stalking a pokey pace in the slop at one mile last time out. She was dropping to this level after going winless for the past year. The track was playing very kindly to front end speed that afternoon when the course was sealed, so the fact that she was gaining ground despite being pace compromised and up against the bias is encouraging. If there was a true speed horse signed on for this race, she’d be my top pick. However, she is classy enough to get into the exotics, if not get up in time, despite the lack of pace in front of her. 

Race 3:

This is not a very strong $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race. I do think the morning line favorite, Tiz Marks Spirit (#8) has an edge over his competition here. Draw a line through his last race at Penn National which was an odd race. A runner flipped in the gate and needed to be scratched. The horses weren’t backed out and the four runners remaining were sent off with an empty stall in between the two and the four horse in that race. Tiz Marks Spirit was the five that day and the four horse slammed into him coming out of the gate causing him to spot the field several lengths in the opening strides. The two and the four were able to scamper away with moderate fractions on a sealed course where closers were struggling to make up ground. He has better efforts in his running lines and he’s making his second start for Panagiotis Synnefias, who has done very well with his runners here in 2024. I see him as the one to beat in this race. Maybe The Elusive Drwong (#3) can get into the race a little sooner in his third start off the layoff. He’s been very slow into stride since coming here. Despite taking what appears to be a small step up in class, I think he was up against an above average $10K maiden claiming group last out while facing a below average for this level. 

Race 4:

They’ll step onto the turf course for the first time today in this maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going five furlongs. The rails are going to be set at 24 feet this afternoon. I like Alas Doradas (#9) getting back on the turf and cutting back to five furlongs in this spot. She debuted in a strong race at this distance in April at Gulfstream, finishing 6th that afternoon. Since then, she has had three starts on the local course, all at 5 ½ furlongs. She doesn’t have a wealth of early speed, which hasn’t been ideal when going that distance out of the chute here at Monmouth. She didn’t have ideal trips in her first two local tries, but her most recent turf effort was her best to date. Jose Hernandez tried on her the dirt two weeks ago and she showed no interest. I think the outside post will work to her benefit in this race and I believe she can run them down late in this spot. Tactical Joke (#3) ships in from Maryland for Brittany Russell and she moves back to the grass. She makes her third start off the layoff today and her third start since joining this high percentage barn. Her debut at this distance last January was solid. Her two efforts at seven furlongs are not good, suggesting that she’s going to be a horse that does her best work at shorter distances. I see her getting a good stalking trip just behind some speed horses that I don’t completely trust. Risadita (#2) debuted in a $40K-$30K maiden claimer last month and she ran a strong race to finish third, beaten only a neck that day. She was sent off at 9-1 and stayed close, taking the lead, only to get nailed in the final strides. She is moving up in class, and while I don’t typically love this move, this is not the strongest group for this condition. 

Race 5:

Last week and for the better part of this meet, the rail has not been very good on the dirt here at Monmouth. While I’ve been focusing on the turf data this meet, perhaps that’s another stat I should try to quantify. I see horses like Fly Fly Away (#1) and Justinspeightofit (#2) in the first two spots. Both want to be forward, and both are pretty much committed to send. Then I look at the morning line favorite, Wood Be Wild (#5), and he wants to be forward as well, but he’s much more effective at 5 and 5 ½ furlongs as opposed to the 6 furlongs he’s being asked to get today. As a result, I think First Deputy (#4) could be sitting the perfect trip in this race. He was 3rd when going 5 ½ furlongs at this level last week, but he looked good making a big early move into the turn. He leveled off when the two favorites pulled away late, as could be expected when going wide. He gets a rider upgrade to Jomar Toirres and he’s one that is much better suited to the six furlong distance of this race. I like his chances a lot in this race. Reckless Place (#9) could be a longshot that has a chance to at least make the vertical exotics today. He’s been on a steady diet of two turn races, but he’s proven to be quite effective at this distance, hitting the board six of ten times. Tony Wilson hasn’t had a great meet, but he has strong numbers with runners going from routes to sprints. Toss his last and he fits with this group. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 will get under way with a beaten $25K-$20K claiming race going one mile on the turf. This is a N3L race for older fillies and mares, but it’s an open race for three year olds. Both Butterfly Queen (#2) and Madness (#3) are three time winners that will take advantage of that exception in the conditions today. Madness has tried two turns three times in her career. She ran 4th in her third career start against decent allowance foes on the Tapeta at Gulfstream. Later on, she tried stakes company in the Sanibel Island where she was a big longshot. She was forced to check sharply and was eased up late that day. Her last routing effort came last time  out when she finished first in a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race at this distance three weeks ago. Her Beyer Figure took a significant bump, so there is a possibility that we’ll see a bit of a bounce in this race. However, I think she’s drawn well for the race that she wants to run. There’s very little early speed signed on as she is in search of her third straight win. Breen’s horses continue to run well at this meet and think she’s got a strong chance in this one. Fullmoonmagic (#7) should be a little farther behind the top pick, but not by much, especially if the pace is slow to moderate as I suspect it will be. She was claimed by the leading trainer at the meet, Claudio Gonzalez, in her last start when she finished first in a $16K-$14K N2L claiming race. She’s improved dramatically in her three starts on the turf this summer, so I think a forward move is possible from her. 

Race 7:

Change of Command (#7), who was well back in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis last time out, makes his return to the races this afternoon as the 5-2 morning line favorite in this optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance race. While he certainly could have grown up since February, I’m taking a stand against him in this spot. He won two straight races going into that Derby Points race at Tampa, but he didn’t run a step that day, finishing 11th of 12. The Derby Prep races were weaker than usual this winter at Tampa, so while something clearly was amiss with him, as he’s been on the sidelines for the last six months, I want to see a race from him before taking a short price. Your Analysis (#5) might not have the highest ceiling in this race, but I do believe he has the highest floor. His last five efforts when going two turns would all put him right in the mix with this field. He really likes racing at Monmouth, posting a career top Beyer Speed Figure here a year ago, when clearing the N1X condition. He’s been knocking on the door at this level, including a narrow defeat in a photo here two back. Going into the weekend, the course profile fits his running style to a tee. Miles of Smiles (#4) takes on the boys after finishing 4th to Idiomatic in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher last out. She’s had a fabulous meet so far, scoring two definitive victories before struggling against the 2023 Older Female Dirt Champion. Those efforts seemed to come out of nowhere, so perhaps she just really likes it here. This is another tall task though, so I would like to do a little better than her 9-2 morning line. Smooth Flyin’ Mike (#6) is a total wild card in this race. Jane Cibelli has not had a great year, only starting 49 runners in 2024. While this is her first starter here in 2024, she has won her share of races on this course over the years. She has good numbers with runners off the layoff, and he’s bred to get two turns on the dirt. This will be his first try at doing so while making his first start in 12 ½ months. I do like the way he’s been working at Laurel, so I could see trying him as a deeper saver in this spot. 

Race 8:

There is a lot of speed signed on for this $16K-$14K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. I think this race sets up nicely for Special Affair (#1), assuming she can stay out of trouble. She has had some troubled trips in her last few tries at this level and distance. She closed well to be 4th, beaten only a length when breaking from the nine hole last out. She was forced to steady two and three starts ago. Four starts back she closed a ton to finish second behind a gate to wire winner at a time when horses were really struggling to come from off the pace and this course and distance. There’s a lot of cheap speed here and over the last few weeks, closers have been able to get home on this course, especially at 24 and 36 feet rail settings. No Fake (#3) is another late mover that makes sense in this field. She was second by a slim margin on the good course three weeks ago. She gets Rendon to ride and her efforts over firmer going aren’t as sharp. She’s getting better, but she could be overbet off her last effort. Sassy Annie (#5) didn’t appear to care for the softer ground last out. Her effort two back was stronger though. I’d like to see her stalk the leaders and maybe try to get first run on the closers in order for her to have the best shot to turn things around. 

Race 9, The $200K Sorority Stakes:

Two year old fillies will go a two turn mile on the main track in the featured race from Monmouth this afternoon. Piggy Tales Up (#5) and Social Fortress (#7) will likely be battling for the lead on the front end in this race. However, I’m not convinced either will be finishing that very strongly in this race. Paul McEntee doesn’t win a ton of races, but he isn’t afraid to shoot his shot, especially with his two year olds. He perennially takes on Wesley Ward firsters at Keeneland with modestly bred runners, in hopes of turning a rather quick profit. Baytown Butterfly (#2) didn’t make the Keeneland meet this year, but she did debut in a $40K maiden claiming race at Churchill where she came home first at 5-1. Since then, she’s finished off the board in stakes efforts at Saratoga, Prairie Meadows, and Ellis, all while gradually stretching out in distances. She goes from seven to eight furlongs in this race, where she’ll have a deeper foundation than her eight rivals. While her speed figures haven’t really been improving much ,she is going two turns today and I do think there’s a chance that she’s finishing better than many of the other fillies that she’s up against. Yellow (#3) didn’t get in yesterday as a main track only entrant in a maiden special weight race at the Spa, so Pletcher will send her down the road to face winners for a race worth twice that purse today. She’s bred for two turns, so I get hoping that the 1 1/16 turf race would get moved to the one mile race on the dirt, but I also getting taking a shot here. Pletcher isn’t afraid of facing winners with his well bred maidens. I do think she’ll take a step forward on the stretch out today. Hollywood Beauty (#4) won on debut at Parx and then tried the turf last out in the Colleen. She didn’t handle the turf at all, so I can forgive that effort. Her barn does have strong numbers with runners stretching out from sprints to routes and the pedigree is there to get the distance. She’ll be overlooked with the slow figure in her debut, but I see some upside here. The same could be said for Vino Limone (#1) who is also bred to get longer distances. She closed from off the pace to beat $40K maiden claimers on this oval three weeks ago. She came with a strong four wide bid to get up in the shadow of the wire. I assume she’ll improve with added distance as well. 

Race 10:

We’ll wrap things up with a $30K-$25K N2L claiming race, going six furlongs on the main track. I liked Searcy (#2) a few weeks ago when facing a better field, but he left himself too much work to do while running in a sprint for the first time since his debut. He drops in class and makes his third start of the meet today for Lindsay Schultz. This is a horse that beat a gold maiden special weight field on opening weekend at Oaklawn last winter. His calendar got messed up when they had to pause racing and training for almost two weeks in January. He was one of many runners that ran uncharacteristically poor efforts in that last week of January earlier this year. He rebounded to be 7th in allowance company, despite a miserably wide trip that day. Shortleaf moved him over to Lindsay Schultz, who tried him on the grass here in June. That was a fail, so he ran in a beaten claiming race last out and now drops to a lower tag today. I think he fits well with this group and should be running on late. Trumpet Call (#8) might find himself a little short at this six furlong distance. However, I do think he’s going to be involved in a race with more early speed than he’s seen in his last few starts at Parx. He just missed in his last two tries there, losing in a photo in a pair of 6 ½ furlong races. He’s an improving three year old that does seem to fit well with this group. New York Strong (#3) is the morning line favorite while going turf to dirt. He’s run decent races in his last four races which were all sprints. He was very sharp on debut last fall in a pair of maiden special weight races on the dirt in New York. His lone try on the dirt here came against a field of $25K maiden claimers at one mile, and it wasn’t great. I don’t love him as the favorite in this spot, but I do see him as the kind of horse that is going to get the right trip for the way the track has been playing over the last few weeks. I’d probably want closer to 4-1 to seriously consider him as a win candidate, but he’s definitely one that I’d like to have as a backup.

Meet Statistics/Notes:

Top Pick Winners, 83/386 (21.5%), $571.20, $1.48 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

0 Feet

12 Feet

24 Feet

36 Feet