Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 7/10/26 – By Eric Solomon

A six race Friday card starts the weekend at Monmouth Park. A handful of the races that were carded for the canceled card on Saturday have been brought back this afternoon. First post for the Friday cards start at 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. The rails for both races on the grass this afternoon will be set all the way out at 36 feet. This feels like a great spot Lucky Louisa (#2). She is making her third career start this afternoon and she’s making her second attempt in a two turn grass race. Tyler Gaffalione rode her last out in a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race here on Haskell Preview Day three weeks ago. She made the lead, but had to work hard every step of the way. She faded to be 4th that day, beaten only 2 lengths. She should be more fit for this race and she’s drawn the rail in a race where there is really no other speed signed on. Her main competition are deeper closers, so it’s hard to see them getting the pace scenario that they’d need to be successful here. Assuming she backs up her last performance, I think she’s going to be very tough in this race. La Pluma (#4) is going to be the backup for me here. She is making her third start off the layoff and making her first start since being moved into Mike Dini’s barn. She took a big step forward last fall when making her third career start and her first try at two turns on the grass at Delaware. She was flat when facing some of these runners last out, but I do think she is sitting on a better effort in her third start of her current form cycle. 

Race 2:

New Jersey bred fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $150K N3L claiming race. Salt and Light (#5) is the top pick for me in this race. She’s one of four runners in this race that ran poorly in the Spruce Fir Handicap a month ago. She was making her first start since October that day and likely needed that race, especially while facing tougher opposition. She broke her maiden last summer on this course at this distance and I think that after getting that first start under her belt, she’s one that could be gaining late. Howler (#4) is a bit of a puzzling horse in this race. She’s likely going to be the favorite when the gates open, and that will be entirely based on her three year old form. She is getting class relief after a pair of dull efforts to start her season. She is the speed of the speed in this race and perhaps not being able to make the lead caused her to run so poorly in the Spruce Fir last time out. She doesn’t have the strongest finishing kick, but that might not not be necessary with this group. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Molly’s a Bullet (#3) who also made her 2026 debut in the Sprue Fir. She has a lot of turf and synthetic races that muddy up her form a bit, however, both of her career scores have come on the dirt. She’s finished off the board in her last six starts though. Like many of the others, she is getting class relief here, which seems to be needed. 

Race 3:

Four of the six runners were brought back from the $25K-$20K maiden claiming race that was scheduled to go last Saturday. Both new faces in this spot are first time starters trained by Cathal Lynch. However, all signs point to Royal Merit (#2) here. He just missed with better two starts back, where he outfinished Jersey’s the Boss (#3). Both runners regressed in their next starts, however, both were in different circumstances. Jersey’s the Boss faded in a salty state bred maiden race six days ago while Royal Merit tried two turns on the turf in his last try. I think Royal Merit gets the right trip in behind the front-runners in a spot where I can’t trust any of them to hold on. The Lynch first time starters here are Re Election (#4) and Magical Cry (#5). Like Hillsborough Eight (#1) and Jersey’s the Boss, these two runners were bred in the Garden State, meaning that they are eligible to run without being offered up for a claiming tag. I get the feeling that Magical Cry might have been entered in this race to ensure the race filled. She’s a filly that would be taking on the boys and she’s only had two posted workouts to date. That’s not really a typical pattern for a Lynch runner. That does make me like Re Election a little more though. While I’m not crazy that this son of Lexitonian missed three weeks of workouts last month. He did come back from that break with a pair of decent drills down at a Fair Hill. His last work came on the turf and the dam sire is Artie Schiller, so there’s a chance that his best work might be on the grass. I think he’s playable as a backup in this race though. 

Race 4:

This $10K-$9K claiming race going a mile on the dirt is one of the more competitive races of the day. Five of the seven runners entered in this race came back from the 7/4 race at this condition that was canceled. Part of my handicap from that race was the quick turnaround on a hot day for many of the runners since several horses were coming out of a race on 6/26. The added time and the fact that temperature at post time should be ten degrees cooler than the forecasted number on Saturday should only help those runners. However, I’m still good to go with Cupid’s Dude (#3) (a horse that was not in the 6/26 race) who is dropping in class for this race after being claimed by Michael Simone three starts ago. Simone’s runners have been sharp at this meet and this one was in very good form prior to being claimed. He was wide while closer to a slow pace against a better field in starter allowance company at Delaware two starts ago. He struggled in his last try at Penn National when catching a course that was labeled good and sealed. He’s a seven year old gelding that has won 12 times in his career and three of those wins have come here. This feels like a good spot for him to rebound. Denying (#2) was the winner here of the aforementioned starter allowance race on 6/26 and he’s been in very good form of late. While it’s fair to point out that both Brave Bear (#6) and Surprise Package (#7) beat him two and three starts back, he has been very sharp since the Avila claim. I like his running lines, but I do think he might go off at a number that is a little shorter than I’m hoping for. He was one that I was going to downgrade a bit last weekend, but I think the week off and the better post makes him tougher to ignore here. Surprise Package has discovered that his tactical speed that he employed on the turf earlier in his career is equally as useful on the dirt. He’s been sharp in his last three starts, including a third place finish in a starter handicap race in the slop in his last try. He has three wins in his last seven starts and I think he could be right in the mix again. 

Race 5:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in this $16K-$14K maiden claiming race which appears to be another solid better contest. There’s not a lot of speed signed on for this race and you have an aggressive rider aboard Zeus Lightning (#9), who is going to need to hustle out of the gate from the nine hole on this course configuration. Jose Ferrer made the most of his first mounts of the meet last weekend and I think he has a good chance to get his picture taken again with this son of Tapiture. He was going the wrong way when he had to take up sharply in a state bred $50K maiden claiming race on the turf at Saratoga last month. He lost all chance after that, so his last place finish in that 12 horse affair looks worse than it really was. He cut back to a seven furlong sprint on the dirt with $35K state bred maiden claimers and was empty. I do think he’s better on the grass and he’s getting fairly significant class relief while coming to New Jersey for the first time. His two efforts outside of New York both came with open maiden special weight types at Tampa and those races were two of better races. He makes sense as a new face in this field. Hurricane Jerry (#6) was third in a slow race at this level last month when making his last start. That was his first start on the turf this year and he’s been a horse that gets better as the meet goes on. This is probably the eight level of competition for him at this point, so I see him as a horse that could move forward here. The new acquisition angle for Juan Avila has been ridiculously good of late, pretty much to the point that you have to respect any of these horses that he’s sending out. Two Dollar Bill (#7) is that runner here. He’s getting back on the turf for the first time since his debut in a strong, open maiden race at Churchill last fall. He hasn’t had a chance to get back on the grass since, racing at Turfway at Parx. Avila has him well-spotted for his return to the lawn, but again, he’s one that will come down to price to see how aggressively I play him. 

Race 6:

Fillies and mares will go 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race. All six runners qualified for this contest under the N2L condition and many of them have been lingering at this level for a while. I think it’s fair to say that First Hathor (#4) wants nothing to do with the turf. She never picked up her feet in two tries on the lawn, including her last start, which was her local debut. She drops in class after that effort and gets back on the dirt. She was sharp two back at Tampa when breaking her maiden and getting an 11 pound weight break over the favorite with an apprentice rider may be enough to tip the scales in her favor. Bee N Dee (#6) is the favorite and she figures to be tough in this race. She faltered late at 3-5 with Paco Lopez in the saddle in her last start. Luis Rivera Jr. will get another crack at things with her as she tries again at this level. She’ll be forwardly placed, which certainly helps her cause. She has two losses at this meet in races where she’s been a sub even money favorite, so even though there isn’t much on paper here, it’s hard to get too invested at a short number with her

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 41/154 (26.6%), $230.50 ($1.49 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet