Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 8/14/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll start the week with a six race card at Monmouth Park this afternoon. The weather forecast is calling for good weather at the Jersey Shore as the summer weekends start to dwindle. First post this afternoon is set for 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start things off with a $16K-$14K N2X claiming race for three year olds and up going five furlongs over the turf course. As per usual, the rails on the turf course for the Friday card will be all the way out at 36 feet. We’ve got a 4-5 morning line favorite in this race with Archimedes (#5). He’s making his first start off the claim by Panagiotis Synnefias after finishing a game second at this level when going 5 ½ furlongs. While I think he’s better suited for the 5 ½ furlong distance, he might be too good for these. He was a deep class dropper for Mike Maker last time around, and he ran his race, but Just Comply was a little bit better that day. This is a softer group so he’s very logical. I do think Scottie Too Hottie (#3) has a chance to beat him though. He was very good in two starts at this distance in the fall at Gulfstream. He was lousy on the synthetic before coming here at the end of June to run on the turf. He was away a beat slow and was bumped by the favorite when coming out of the gate. He was in chase mode the whole way and then was forced to take up sharply on the turn when he was advancing. Early speed is the name of his game and I do think when he’s at his best, he can make the lead in this spot. He’s making his third start off the layoff so I’m hopeful that we’ll see a decent step forward here.

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $10K maiden claimer. The recent form from many of these is rough. I landed on Bet on Beth (#1) as the top pick. She’s looking for her first win in start number 13, but she is making her second start off the bench for Mike Dini, who has had a strong meet. Both Miskita (#5) and La Pluma (#3) were better than her at this level when they all met up on 7/31, but they were close together behind a runaway winner that day. I thi k a little bit of improvement may serve her well. La Pluma had the excuse of missing the break in that last race and leaving herself too much work to do in the end. On one hand, I do think she has been on the turf, but it is a positive sign to see Edwin Gonzalez retain the mount on this Mo Town filly. I’m against Miskita in this spot because I think she needed a lot of things to go her way to narrowly finish better than the top picks here. Instead, I’ll use Thegangsallhere (#2) as a backup. Rory Huston had a strong week here two weeks ago, winning three times with some nice prices. This Irish War Cry filly has been floundering on the turf against better in her last three starts. She does have a race that would be good enough to beat this field on the dirt. Her recent form is concerning, seeing how she has lost her last three starts by over a 100 lengths combined. If her odds float up off her 6-1 morning line figure, I’d be more inclined to take a shot with her. 

Race 3:

We’ll stay on the dirt this beaten $5K claiming race going a mile and 70 yards. Miguel Penaloza sends out a pair of runners for common ownership, however, I have to wonder if Fromanothamutha (#5), who is the morning line favorite, entered in this spot to make sure the race filled for his stablemate, Rerally (#2). Jesus Aguilar rode both horses in their last starts, and he has ridden a decent number of horses for Penaloza. This gelding was second against a much stronger group of $10K-$9K claimers in his last start. He drops in class to a level where he has been successful in the past. I think he’s sitting on a big effort in this race. Praetorian Guard (#6) is in the backup for me in this race as he makes his first start off the Michael Pino claim. This gelding has been based at Parx and has only ventured away from Bensalem, PA twice in 42 career starts. He was dreadful in his last start there last month, but this barn is known for turning around claiming horses.

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go five furlongs on the turf in this $12,500-$10,500 claiming race which starts the $3 Late Pick-3. I think May Mischief (#4) is an interesting price play in this race. She is making her first start off the claim and gets back to a turf sprint for the first time in a while. She has decent speed in a race where there isn’t much of that to go around. The Furmanator (#1) may try to send from her rail draw, but she doesn’t seem to be as quick as she was a few years ago. Her form is up and down, so the morning line price definitely reflects that. I think she could wire this group though. Tap It Up (#2) was a winner at this level when going 5 ½ furlongs two starts back. She moved up in class to face a tougher allowance group in her last start where she trailed throughout. She’s faster than most of those though and figures to be right there at the end. I’m a little stuck on how to handle Anaita (#3) in this race. On one hand, she’s a distance specialist, winning 6 of 11 times at this five furlong trip. That is often something I look for in these races. However, she has shown very little early speed in her last few starts. Which makes me wonder if she’s losing a step. I don’t think she’s going to get the pace meltdown scenario with this group and coming from ten lengths off the pace at the first call is a very tough assignment at this distance. She’s hard for me to use at 3-1, but if those odds float up, I could be more interested. I’m using her as a deeper saver and primarily limiting her to underneath positions in vertical wagers. 

Race 5:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs on the dirt in this $10K-$9K claiming race. A handful of these runners are coming out of a starter allowance race here at the beginning of the month. Shakin Loose (#4) ran well to be third that day, but he didn’t have the best of trips. He drops in class to open claiming company. He was a winner two back in $12,500-$10,500 claiming company in a race that was taken off the turf. Synnefias has got him in good form and I think he’ll get the job done with these. Pogi (#7) is also coming out of the same race where he had a decent, ground saving journey. The rail opened up for him on the turn and he made his run. Things got a little tight, which may have kept him from sustaining his bid. I like that he’s drawn outside today. These are the two that I’ll use in this race. I’ll be against In the Chase (#3) who is getting back on the dirt after a strong effort on the turf in his last. He doesn’t win a ton of races and his best work has come at Charles Town in two turn sprint races there. I think he’ll go off as the favorite in this spot, but I have some doubts. 

Race 6:

We’ll end the day with a $40K-$30K N2L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. This is a competitive race with some recent graduates from the maiden ranks. Mo Action (#7) is the top pick for me here. He was a game third with $50K-$40K N2L claimers in his first start against winners last time out. I thought his maiden score in June was strong, so I can see him continuing to get better with more racing experience. Tail Risk (#2) was claimed for $16K two back and then beat a below average maiden special weight field in his last start. He’s another three year old with a nice trajectory coming into this race. The fact that Edwin Gonzalez takes the mount feels like a positive sign. On deeper tickets, City Nights (#1) is an absolute wild card in this race. He has not competed since the fall of 2023. He did run well on the turf at Lone Star that year and he has been working well in the AM here at Monmouth since moving into Anthony Margotta’s barn. I have no clue what to expect but if he’s on his toes in the paddock and while warming up, I think I’d consider him for a piece. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 63/239 (26.4%), $374.10 ($1.57 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet